Fantasy Football Numbers to Know: Wild Card Weekend

Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.

So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.

Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football in the Wild Card Round

1. The Broncos Are Allowing 39.9 Receiving Yards Per Game to RBs

That is good for the fourth most in the league, creating an opportunity for the Bills to utilize all three of their running backs in this matchup. Against schematically similar defenses like Detroit and New England, we saw James Cook, Ty Johnson and Ray Davis combine for 12 catches for 199 yards and two touchdowns and with the Broncos deploying a ton of man coverage, I fully expect Joe Brady to dial up some play designs to get the running backs in advantageous matchups against these Denver linebackers. The Broncos are also coughing up the fifth-most receptions (5.0) and ninth-most targets (5.9) per game to opposing backfields this season.

2. Tampa Bay Allowed the Most Receiving Touchdowns off Post Routes This Season (7)

LANDOVER, MD - NOVEMBER 17: Washington Redskins Wide Receiver Terry McLaurin (17) races up field during a NFL game between the Washington Redskins and the New York Jets on November 17, 2019 at Fedex Field, in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire) — LANDOVER, MD – NOVEMBER 17: Washington Redskins Wide Receiver Terry McLaurin (17) races up field during a NFL game between the Washington Redskins and the New York Jets on November 17, 2019 at Fedex Field, in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Tony Quinn/Icon Sportswire)

We have been able to attack the Tampa Bay secondary all season long, and I don’t expect that to change heading into the playoffs. No team allowed more touchdowns off post routes than the Bucs (7), which bodes really well for Terry McLaurin, who finished the year with the third-most targets off post routes (11). Tampa Bay also allowed a league-leading 2.0 receptions per game off the route, as well as the second-most yards per game (46.1). And to add to this great matchup, the Bucs are coughing up the seventh-most yards per game to opposing lead wide receivers (74.8). McLaurin will see plenty of coverage from 2023 sixth-rounder Josh Hayes, who is allowing the fourth-most yards per coverage route among all corners on the slate (1.31).

3. Puka Nacua Led the NFL in Receiving Yards Per Game Against the Blitz (38.6)

When you are facing Brian Flores and the Vikings defense, you always have to be prepared for multiple blitz packages. Minnesota’s 42.3% blitz rate was the second highest in the NFL this season. Expect Nacua to, per usual, be very busy Monday. He leads the league with nearly 39 receiving yards per game against the blitz, while he’s been targeted on over 40% of his routes when Matthew Stafford has been blitzed this season. Meanwhile, his 0.759 EPA per target against the blitz is good for the sixth-best mark among qualified wide receivers.

4. The Bills Allowed a 52.8% Success Rate Against Screens this Season

That’s the fourth-worst rate in the league — the Bills have struggled to defend screen passes for over two years now. Buffalo has also allowed two touchdowns off screens this year and will have to be ready for the plethora of screens Sean Payton will more than likely dial up. During the regular season, Bo Nix attempted 4.6 screen passes per game, the fourth-most among all signal callers. His four touchdown passes off the play type also tied for the most in the league. Don’t be surprised if the Broncos find success in the screen game Sunday, with Jaleel McLaughlin and Marvin Mims Jr. key players to watch.

5. 13.1% of the Runs Against the Commanders Have Gained 10-Plus Yards

TAMPA, FL - SEPTEMBER 08: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Back Bucky Irving (7) carries the ball during the game between the Washington Commanders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on September 08, 2024 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire) — TAMPA, FL – SEPTEMBER 08: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Back Bucky Irving (7) carries the ball during the game between the Washington Commanders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on September 08, 2024 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

It is tied for the fifth-worst rate in the league, making this an avenue I really think Tampa Bay can attack ahead of this matchup. Bucky Irving has emerged as the clear lead running back, as in the most important game of the year last week, the rookie logged a season-high 72% of the snaps. Over the final two weeks of the season, Irving has out-touched Rachaad White 45-7, while Irving has handled over 67% of the team’s rush attempts during that span. Irving wasn’t just the best rookie running back in 2024, but one of the best running backs, period. Only Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley were better in EPA per attempt than Irving (0.073), while his 3.5 yards after contact per attempt was the second-best mark in the league. This is a great matchup for him to find continued success in his first career playoff contest.