First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Last week, Underdog released its first contest of the 2025 season with The Big Board, which includes droves of undrafted rookies. With that came ADPs bouncing around a bit. For instance, since I wrote last week’s article on rookie values, Travis Hunter’s ADP jumped from 154 (WR69) to 118 (WR57) in a few days. That’s too rich for me, especially knowing I can grab second-year wide receiver Xavier Legette 15 spots later (133).
That got me thinking, after five Big Boards and a handful of Little Boards, what rookies do I find myself drafting over veterans at a similar ADP?
Omarion Hampton, RB (Round 5)
I selected Omarion Hampton over Kenneth Walker III and Alvin Kamara in a recent Big Board and feel great about it. There’s always risk when drafting rookies at any position but especially when the rookie’s ADP is 58. I accept it when the player comes in with the level of production Hampton had at UNC in 2024. The junior running back accumulated 2,033 yards from scrimmage, 38 receptions and 17 total touchdowns. I like the versatility in his game. He’s a bigger back at 6-foot-0 and 220 pounds, but he’s not just a pounder. Hampton can be elusive in the open field but is an optimal goal-line back, as well, that can drive the pile forward. Oh, and he catches the ball. All rookies depend on landing spot, but if he ends up somewhere like Denver or Dallas, look out. I’ll have shares this offseason.
Luther Burden III, WR (Rounds 6-7)
My exposure is getting up there, y’all. I touted him in my article last week and dubbed myself the Luther Truther. Since then, his ADP has remained right around 71 (WR37). I want him over all the older running backs (David Montgomery, James Conner) and the group of “been there, done that” wide receivers (Deebo Samuel Sr., Khalil Shakir, Calvin Ridley) drafted in Rounds 6-7 range. To be clear, I would take him ahead of Chris Godwin (65 — WR 35), who is set to hit free agency coming off an ACL tear.
Jalen Royals, WR (Round 14)
At 210 pounds, Jalen Royals moves like a shifty slot. When you watch his tape, he often sheds the first tackler, especially in man coverage, but it is his ability to find holes in zone defense is a trait every team covets. He’s constantly racking up yards after the catch based on both his understanding of zone coverage schemes and ability to break tackles in traffic. He is able to improvise his routes on scramble drills and leverage his body to make tight window catches. I could see him benefiting from teams that use pre-snap motion to help aid in potential struggles with release. At this point, you can get him after Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and Quentin Johnston. I like his upside more than all of them.
Elijah Arroyo, TE (Round 20)
While Tyler Warren gets a ton of love in this year’s tight end class, you also have to invest a top-100-ish pick to acquire him in drafts (ADP 101). Elijah Arroyo, who is currently undrafted in many Big Boards, picked up a ton of momentum following last week’s Senior Bowl in Mobile. FTN’s Jeremy Popielarz described his “[dominance] in the red zone, where his physicality and size were a significant mismatch.” In theory, we want our tight ends to score touchdowns, and Arroyo showed a propensity to find the end zone, scoring seven touchdowns in 2024. The Big Board is 20 rounds (compared to 18), so I love the strategy of bolstering the TE position with a third player. I expect him to be taken in BBMs in a few months, so Arroyo is the perfect TE3 for an against-the-grain final pick in the 20th round.
