First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Now updated with Monday Night Football stats.
Ladd McConkey of the Los Angeles Chargers set a new rookie playoff record with 197 yards against the Houston Texans on Saturday. So of course, he’s our leading receiver of the week by DYAR, right?
Actually, he’s not. McConkey had only 67 DYAR on the day, in part because he had five incomplete targets and in part because the DVOA/DYAR system lowers the marginal importance of additional yardage when you get over 40 yards on a play. So his 86-yard touchdown isn’t worth quite as much in DYAR as you might expect.
In fact, McConkey does not set the record for DYAR by a wide receiver in a playoff game. The receiver whose yardage record McConkey broke, Puka Nacua, doesn’t have the DYAR record either, because he fumbled on a botched running play. He has the receiving record with 87 DYAR but the run fumble drops him to 60 DYAR overall.
Instead, the overall record for DYAR by a rookie wide receiver in a playoff game is 78 DYAR by Austin Collie of the 2009 Indianapolis Colts. Collie caught 7-of-9 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown against the fantastic 2009 New York Jets pass defense in an AFC Championship Game win.
Keenan Allen is second with 77 DYAR for the 2013 Chargers against the Broncos. He caught 6-of-9 for 142 yards with two touchdowns.
What about other positions?
The best rookie quarterback DYAR game in the playoffs is also the best rookie quarterback game ever, Russell Wilson with 265 DYAR against the Falcons in 2012. He completed 24-of-36 passes for 385 yards and two touchdowns, then ran seven times for 60 yards and another touchdown.
The best rookie running back DYAR game in the playoffs is a three-way tie at 67 DYAR:
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- Reggie Bush in the 2006 NFC Championship Game against the Bears did it mostly with receiving, catching seven passes for 132 yards and a touchdown.
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- Sony Michel of the Patriots in 2018 against the Chargers had 24 carries for 129 yards and three touchdowns.
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- Cam Akers of the Rams in 2020 against a very strong Seahawks run defense had 28 carries for 131 yards and a touchdown plus 45 receiving yards.
Timmy Smith of Washington had 62 DYAR for his huge Super Bowl XXII performance against the 1987 Broncos, who were not a good run defense.
The best rookie tight end DYAR game in the playoffs is Keith Jackson of the 1988 Eagles against the Bears with seven catches for 142 yards. It’s the only playoff game in my entire database where a rookie tight end had at least 100 receiving yards.
The best and worst players by DYAR for Wild-Card Weekend follow…
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