Fantasy Football Best Ball 2025: 3 Questions from Early Drafts

With 20 Big Board best ball drafts completed at Underdog, I’ve started to isolate the key questions that need to be answered prior to entering a draft room. The answers to these questions have tentacles that affect all subsequent picks and serve as the foundation for your entire draft. Let’s start with the three most important questions you need to answer prior to entering the pre-draft best ball war rooms. 

3 Questions for 2025 Best Ball

1. To Jayden or Not To Jayden?

The love of quarterback Jayden Daniels is powerful in the pre-draft best ball streets. The Washington signal-caller had quite a rookie season, finishing with a 69% completion percentage, with 31 total touchdowns and an incredible 891 rushing yards. Per FTN StatsHub, Daniels’ 69% completion percentage ranked fourth-best at the position, trailing only Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow and Geno Smith. When you factor in his immense rushing upside, there is a strong argument that Daniels is on the precipice of a historic fantasy season in 2025. 

Daniels currently carries an ADP of 37.0 as the overall QB3. This translates to a fourth-round investment, which makes his price very steep. If you invest in Daniels, you are bypassing other elite running backs and wide receivers. If you are going to make that decision, you need elite production from Daniels’ second NFL season. 

We saw a decline from Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud during his sophomore season, throwing for 400 fewer yards, three fewer touchdowns and seven more interceptions in two extra games. Will Daniels see a sophomore slump, or be the exception? 

Finally, we must consider the established yearly trend of one of the top three fantasy quarterbacks failing to even approach their preseason ADP. Consider the following: 

• In each of the last 15 seasons, at least one of the top three quarterbacks per ADP finished outside the top five QBs in fantasy scoring. Last season, Jalen Hurts (ADP QB2) finished as overall QB6. 
• In 14 of the last 15 seasons, at least one such quarterback finished as QB10 or worse.
• In nine of the last 15 seasons, at least one such quarterback failed to finish as at top 12 fantasy option.

After a legendary rookie season, it is certainly possible Daniels ascends to a top-three fantasy quarterback option. If you chose to invest in the dynamic Washington dual-threat passer, he must fulfill that lofty ADP. 

If you choose to draft Daniels, then there is an equally strong argument to draft wide receiver Terry McLaurin. Stacking your quarterback with at least one pass catcher has been proven as an optimal best ball draft strategy, but there are limited options among other Washington pass catchers. McLaurin saw 53 more targets and 37 more receptions than the next Commanders wide receiver (Olamide Zaccheaus). Washington’s second-most productive pass catcher was 34-year-old tight end Zach Ertz. Will the Commanders add a wide receiver either via free agency or the NFL draft? While it is certainly likely, McLaurin remains the primary target for Daniels with a steep ADP. The Commanders wideout is currently being drafted as WR13, with an early third-round ADP of 25.4 on Underdog. 

Translation? If you want to invest in this ascending Washington passing attack, you will likely need to invest your third- and fourth-round picks on Daniels and McLaurin. That’s a steep price to pay, which puts a lot of faith in the Commanders’ offense to exceed expectations. 

2. Team Backfield Drafting?

There are two teams with productive backfields that carry remarkably low ADPs: Washington and Denver. Both backfields provide value-based options that could greatly outperform ADP. In Washington, Brian Robinson Jr. finished as the overall RB23 in 0.5 PPR formats, but is currently carrying a microscopic ADP of 106.1, being drafted as the overall RB33. Robinson has improved his yards per carry in each of his first three seasons, finding the end zone eight times in 2024. As the lead running back in an ascending offense with the aforementioned Jayden Daniels, it is highly unlikely he fails to outperform his current ADP without suffering an injury. 

The other ignored backfield is Denver, where veteran Javonte Williams saw his snap share steadily decline throughout the season. Williams’ total carries fell from 219 in 2024 to just 139 last season, despite playing one additional game. Per FTN StatsHub, Williams finished 20th among all running backs with a 49.9% snap share, but that was greatly skewed to the beginning of the season. It is likely Williams is no longer in Denver next year, opening up more opportunities for Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin. Both running backs currently carry ADPs outside the top 200 players, and are drafted as the RB62 and RB65 respectively. This is eerily similar to the Chargers running back situation entering last season, where J.K. Dobbins (ADP RB41) resided as the RB16 prior to his Week 12 injury. As a devout follower of Zero RB, I love looking for late-round running back values. The two backfields you should consider targeting are Washington and Denver. 

3. Optimal Tight End?

I avoid drafting tight ends early like I avoid a root canal. It’s extremely difficult to find a player to meet that value and a one-starter position. Last season, the top five tight ends per ADP were Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid. The results were scary:

• Travis Kelce (ADP 27.3, RD3): Finished at TE6
• Sam LaPorta (ADP 30.7, RD3): Finished at TE7
• Mark Andrews (ADP 49.0, RD5): Finished TE5
• Trey McBride (ADP 48.0; TE3): Finished TE3 (no receiving TDs until Week 17)
• Dalton Kincaid (ADP 52.0; TE5): Finished TE22

Selecting an early-round tight end can destroy your fantasy season before it begins, but if you do find that one unique exception, it is a huge positional advantage on your opponents. 

Last year, I enjoyed the fortune of high exposure to Tampa Bay’s Cade Otton (TE14) and Miami’s Jonnu Smith (TE6), both of whom vastly outperformed their ADP. The best tight end selection was Las Vegas rookie Brock Bowers, who finished as the TE2 in half-PPR formats. 

There are several interesting candidates for rookie and/or later-round tight end picks that could serve as league-winners including: 

• Tucker Kraft (ADP 119.2): Lead tight end in an ascending offense tethered to quarterback Jordan Love.
• Tyler Warren (ADP 101): Athletic Penn State product who posted a 104/1,233/8 stat line for the Nittany Lions last season.
• Colston Loveland (ADP 149.8): The 6-foot-5 Michigan tight end who our own Jeff Ratcliffe mocked to Denver at No. 20 overall.
• Ja’Tavion Sanders (ADP 196.9): Fantastic late-round value who flashed as a rookie on a developing Carolina offense. Has tremendous explosiveness as reliable target for quarterback Bryce Young.

If you chose to draft a tight end in the early rounds, you better be right. If you choose to wait at the position, consider one of the options above.