Crossed Up: Top 100 Starting Pitchers

In the blink of an eye, the 2024 season is less than two months away, and fantasy baseball draft season is really starting to heat up. If you recall, I wrote a weekly pitcher planner article for FTN last season, which included my top 100 starting pitcher rankings for that particular week. Today, I’ll be diving back into the marvelous world of starting pitching with my top 100 starting pitcher rankings for the 2024 season.

At the bottom of this article, you’ll find my tiered rankings along with VDP projections and my thoughts on a dozen intriguing names this season. Let’s start the season off strong and build pitching staffs than can help you compete for fantasy championships.

Starting Pitcher Names of Note

Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

If we had the injury setting turned off like in MLB the Show, I’d 100% be fine selecting Tyler Glasnow as a top-10 starter and within the top 50 overall. But unfortunately, we don’t have that luxury. In 2023, Glasnow recorded a 3.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a 33.4% strikeout rate in a career-best 120 innings. 

Yeah, the strikeout rate is sexy and always has been, but those last few words are what we need to be focusing on. Do you really want your ace to be someone that has never eclipsed the 120-inning mark in his career? Sure, I’m ranking him as an ace, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be targeting him on draft day.

Unfortunately, the same can be said about Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but for different reasons. Yamamoto is one of the best pitchers to ever come out of Japan, but again, do you want your ace to be someone that has never thrown a single pitch in the big leagues? 

Maybe it will be another Kodai Senga situation where Yamamoto settles in and dominates in the second half. And in general, I’m incredibly high on him long-term. But as was the case with Glasnow, the price is just too high for me right now. Remember when we were getting him at an SP2 cost way back in November and December? Take me back!

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

Let’s keep this Dodger train going with former fantasy ace Walker Buehler. You literally couldn’t pay me enough to draft Buehler inside the top 125 (where he’s going on average). And to anyone drafting him in that range, I need to ask…

Starting with the obvious, Buehler has pitched a mere 65 inning since the start of 2022 as he recovered from his second Tommy John surgery. That alone would have me avoiding him as we don’t have many examples of pitchers with two Tommy John surgeries that have come back and pitched at a high level. 

It’s not like Buehler was dominant in his 12 starts in 2022 before getting hurt either. The secondaries were fine, but Buehler’s 4-seam fastball allowed a .365 BAA, .581 SLG and a 49.3% ideal contact rate. For reference, the MLB average is 41.5%.

Even with all of this, if he had been in the 175 ADP range like I was expecting, I might have been fine with it. But I’m not going to pay a top-125 price tag for Buehler, especially considering he’s likely not going to be ready for the start of the season. Fade Buehler and go after Emmet Sheehan around pick 250 instead.

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Back in the beginning of 2024 draft season when I saw some top-10 SP rankings thrown about for Tarik Skubal, I tried by hardest to throw cold water on that notion. There’s no way Skubal should be a Top 10 SP in drafts, right? That’s the question I kept asking myself as I dug deeper into the profile, but the end result was me being more into Skubal than I was before. 

Outside of having a shorter track record, Skubal checks off all the boxes I look for in an ace starter for fantasy. In 15 starts after returning in early-July, Skubal posted a stellar 2.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 4.5% walk rate and a 32.9% strikeout rate across 80.1 innings. He also ranked in the top-6% of pitchers in xBA, xSLG, wOBA, xwOBA, xwOBACON, strikeout rate and walk rate while posting an impressive 31.3% whiff rate, 33.5% chase rate, 14.9% SwStr rate and 51.8% groundball rate.

Outside of the aforementioned shorter track record, Skubal’s profile is screaming fantasy ace in 2024.

Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles
Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers
Eury Pérez, Miami Marlins

The 60-80 range of 2024 drafts contains enough excitement to raise the hair on the back of your neck. Ideally, this is where I’m going to get my SP2 this draft season, especially if I have a reliable SP1 like Zack Wheeler, Zac Gallen, etc. The 60-80 ADP range for NFBC Draft Champion drafts since Jan. 1 contains high-upside arms like Grayson Rodriguez, Eury Pérez, Bobby Miller, Kodai Senga and Jesús Luzardo, among others.

• Grayson Rodriguez: After he returned from the minors July 17, Rodriguez recorded a 2.58 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1.09 WHIP, and 17.1% K-BB rate. All three of his offspeed pitches (curve, slider, changeup) had a BAA under .201 and a SLG under .353, and Rodriguez went to his 4-seamer more after being recalled while basically eliminating his cutter.
• Eury Pérez: In 19 starts last season, Pérez posted a 3.15 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 8.3% BB rate and 28.9% strikeout rate across 91.1 innings. That’s just the beginning though. Pérez was also just one of two pitchers with three offerings with a 45%-plus whiff rate and became the second pitcher 20 or younger in the history of baseball to post a K-BB% above 20% in their rookie season (min 70 IP).
• Bobby Miller: On the surface, Miller’s 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 17.3% K-BB rate were all impressive marks for a rookie, but his metrics under the hood are even more impressive. Miller possesses that intriguing blend of bat-missing ability, a lower walk rate, and the ability to induce a solid amount of groundballs. According to Savant, similar pitchers to Miller based on velocity and movement were Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Hunter Greene, Luis Severino and Spencer Strider.

I’m trying to get one of this trio, Senga or Luzardo as my SP2 in every draft I participate in this season.

Michael King, San Diego Padres

The fantasy baseball community appears to be fairly divided on Michael King this season, but I’m definitely buying. After transitioning to the rotation late in the season, King posted a 2.02 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5% walk rate and 31.9% strikeout rate over his final seven starts. King already had a diverse arsenal and he started going to his sinker more as a starter. 

The only real question I have with King right now is how many innings he will throw. VDP projections have him at 154 which feels about right to me, and if he hits the rest of his VDP projections, he’ll be a solid ROI selection this season.

Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds

After Buehler, my next biggest ADP pitcher fade in the 101-200 range is Hunter Greene. Is Greene flashy and fun to watch? Yes. But neither of those things correlates with fantasy success. Greene is a two-pitch pitcher that gives up a ton of hard contact in the air. That’s not exactly a recipe for success in any ballpark, especially a hitter’s haven like Great American Ball Park. He’ll be a good source of strikeouts, but I can’t see a sub-4.00 ERA right now and VDP projections agree.

As for Nick Lodolo, he’s one of my favorite pitching targets outside the top 200 ADP. And honestly, he could wind up being one of the biggest ADP steals of the 2024 season. Lodolo was limited to only seven starts this season and VDP projections have him at 122 innings with a 3.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Given his post-200 ADP, those numbers would be fine value. And if he’s able to get up closer to 150 innings, that’s where the massive ROI possibility presents itself. Lodolo doesn’t blow hitters away with velocity like Greene does, but the curveball is elite (Sub .160 BAA and 45+% whiff in 2022 and 2023) and Lodolo’s groundball rate has been above 45% both seasons.

Lodolo is ranked higher than Greene in my rankings and he’s a no-brainer when factoring in each player’s respective price tag.

Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox
Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox

While the Boston Red Sox appear to be headed toward another underwhelming season, there are still plenty of intriguing fantasy targets on this team. On the mound, the three most intriguing talking points in my opinion are Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello, and Nick Pivetta.

In 31 appearances (23 starts) spanning 129.1 innings last season, Crawford was sneaky good with a 4.04 ERA, 3.25 xERA, 6.8% walk rate, and a 25.6% strikeout rate. He was one of just five pitchers to have an xERA under 3.50, walk rate under 7% and a strikeout rate above 25%. The other four were Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Pablo López and Zach Eflin. As long as he’s in the rotation all season, there’s top-40 SP upside here from an ADP near pick 275. Yes please.

Pivetta was even better than Crawford last season, ranking seventh in K-BB rate among pitchers with at least 140 innings. In the second half, Pivetta was one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 3.30 ERA, 2.80 xFIP, 2.73 SIERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 28.8% K-BB rate. Only Freddy Peralta had a higher K-BB rate during that timeframe. Overall, Pivetta had four offerings with a whiff rate above 30%. I’m not as excited about Pivetta’s 171 ADP as I am Crawford’s, but that’s a fine ADP for what Pivetta can bring to the table.

Top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2024