Joe Musgrove DVOA, Advanced Stats, & Fantasy Rankings

San Diego Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove (elbow) played light catch on Monday for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery last October. Musgrove was pretty fired up about it and said, "I'm just thinking of all the hard work I've done over the last six months." It's a big step for the 32-year-old veteran, but he still has a ways to go in his comeback from elbow reconstruction and he's not expected to pitch at all for the Padres in 2025. For that reason, Musgrove isn't worth stashing at all in single-year fantasy leagues. He should be ready to go for the start of the 2026 season next spring, but many fantasy managers will be hesitant to rely on a veteran hurler on the wrong side of 30 that is coming off TJ surgery. The former first-rounder was a first-time All-Star in 2022 and was very reliable in his first two seasons with the Friars, but he made just 36 starts combined in 2023-24 due to injuries.

According to MLB.com, San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (elbow) plans to ramp up using plyometric balls during spring training but is not expected to resume throwing until midseason. The 32-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery in October and is expected to remain sidelined during the entire 2025 season. However, seeing him begin his recovery process during spring training is promising. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor his status as he should be a full-go for the 2026 season. Last summer, the 32-year-old posted a 3.88 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP across 99 2/3 innings. He struck out 101 batters and showed strong command of his pitches with a 5.6 percent walk rate. However, he generated a poor 4.34 xERA, which suggests he will likely face some regression when he returns to the mound. Fantasy managers should expect Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, and Michael King to lead the rotation in 2025, with Randy Vasquez and Matt Waldron serving as the fourth and fifth options.

San Diego Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove (elbow) underwent his Tommy John surgery on Friday with Dr. Keith Meister. Musgrove felt tightness in his elbow in his start in Game 2 of the Wild-Card Series against the Atlanta Braves on Oct. 2 and needed TJ surgery, which will keep him out for the entire 2025 season. Elbow issues -- he also dealt with a bone spur in his right elbow -- sent the 31-year-old to the injured twice in 2024, but this elbow issue is obviously much more serious. Musgrove looked off early on in 2024 but bounced back to finish with a decent 3.88 ERA (3.96 FIP), a 1.17 WHIP and a 101:23 K:BB in 99 2/3 innings over his 19 starts. It's now back-to-back injury-plagued seasons for the veteran right-hander, and his fantasy stock will surely be depressed when he returns to the mound in 2026 after a year off. The good news is his strikeout rate was basically the same this year as it was in his All-Star season of 2022.