Joe Musgrove DVOA, Advanced Stats, & Fantasy Rankings

San Diego Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove (elbow) has been traveling with the big-league team after starting to play catch again in early April. Musgrove is playing catch three times a week and is scheduled to progress from 75 feet to 90 feet this week, according to MLB.com. The 32-year-old veteran is recovering from Tommy John surgery to fix a torn right UCL. He was placed on the 60-day injured list on March 20 and will miss the entire 2025 season for the Padres and fantasy managers. Before injuring his elbow last year, Musgrove was no longer a reliable fantasy starter and posted a 6.37 ERA in his first eight starts. He looked better in two starts after returning, but that was the extent of his season before having to undergo TJ surgery. With better health, Musgrove could bounce back in 2026, but it's no sure thing at his age.

San Diego Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove (elbow) played light catch on Monday for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery last October. Musgrove was pretty fired up about it and said, "I'm just thinking of all the hard work I've done over the last six months." It's a big step for the 32-year-old veteran, but he still has a ways to go in his comeback from elbow reconstruction and he's not expected to pitch at all for the Padres in 2025. For that reason, Musgrove isn't worth stashing at all in single-year fantasy leagues. He should be ready to go for the start of the 2026 season next spring, but many fantasy managers will be hesitant to rely on a veteran hurler on the wrong side of 30 that is coming off TJ surgery. The former first-rounder was a first-time All-Star in 2022 and was very reliable in his first two seasons with the Friars, but he made just 36 starts combined in 2023-24 due to injuries.

According to MLB.com, San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (elbow) plans to ramp up using plyometric balls during spring training but is not expected to resume throwing until midseason. The 32-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery in October and is expected to remain sidelined during the entire 2025 season. However, seeing him begin his recovery process during spring training is promising. Fantasy managers should continue to monitor his status as he should be a full-go for the 2026 season. Last summer, the 32-year-old posted a 3.88 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP across 99 2/3 innings. He struck out 101 batters and showed strong command of his pitches with a 5.6 percent walk rate. However, he generated a poor 4.34 xERA, which suggests he will likely face some regression when he returns to the mound. Fantasy managers should expect Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, and Michael King to lead the rotation in 2025, with Randy Vasquez and Matt Waldron serving as the fourth and fifth options.