Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
So much fantasy football advice is geared toward snake drafts and its ilk. Today though, I’m looking at auction, or salary cap, leagues and how I would approach them. Auctions can be so different depending on the room, so this is more about players to target and players I would not overpay for.
Quarterback
I would not pay for Patrick Mahomes — I am not someone who pays up for the top QB (ever) in a single-quarterback league. On the other hand, if it’s a superflex league, I do want a top-eight quarterback:
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Quarterback ranks
(Considering likely salary)
Dak Prescott
Lamar Jackson
Josh Allen
Kyler Murray
Patrick Mahomes
Russell Wilson
Justin Herbert
Tom Brady
Joe Burrow
Matthew Stafford
Aaron Rodgers
Ryan Tannehill
Jalen Hurts
Trey Lance
Trevor Lawrence
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Fields
Other positions
Guys to break the bank on
(Considering likely salary)
Christian McCaffrey
Dalvin Cook
Davante Adams
Travis Kelce
Stefon Diggs
Tyreek Hill
Derrick Henry (move him over Hill and Diggs if it’s 0.5 PPR)
Austin Ekeler and Aaron Jones are RB1s you can get cheaper than the McCaffrey/Cook class. Antonio Gibson is right there with them as well, though I’m a little worried about third-down work. I would make the first two a priority if you miss out on one of the top-three backs.
I absolutely love Najee Harris unless you have a Pittsburgh fan who overbids.
Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara are not guys I would pay up for in auction, unless they somehow get undervalued (and they won’t). Instead, nominate them in hopes to get another manager or two out of the mix for the other RBs. I would keep nominating expensive players I’m not targeting to drain other managers’ banks.
Here are the expensive guys I am OK with someone else paying the premium on:
Joe Mixon
DeAndre Hopkins
Patrick Mahomes
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
George Kittle
J.K. Dobbins
Nick Chubb (though I love him as a player)
Saquon Barkley
Other player notes
Darren Waller is so unique and in his own tier, but I am fine punting the tight end position and getting guys like Gerald Everett and Irv Smith.
Calvin Ridley will likely go for a price that will make him a pass, even though he is a beast.
Keenan Allen is always disrespected — you should be able to get him as your WR2. The same goes for Mike Evans.
Allen Robinson and Terry McLaurin are guys I draft a lot, but Amari Cooper is the guy I want in this tier if he is discounted (though it’s worth being aware if there are Cowboys fans in your draft). I love CeeDee Lamb, but he will be more expensive than Cooper
- Yes on DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown, even more so in 0.5 PPR.
- Pass on D’Andre Swift at his price, but grab Jamaal Williams at his.
- Pass on Darrell Henderson at his price, but grab Sony Michel if his price doesn’t rise too high.
- Yes on Robert Woods, even more so on Cooper Kupp.
- Prioritize D.J. Moore. I would be fine rolling him out as my WR1 if the big dogs get too expensive. The same goes for Diontae Johnson.
- I won’t be drafting much Chris Godwin or Julio Jones.
- Chris Carson and David Montgomery are great running back options at their prices if you decide to spend up on Travis Kelce and/or receivers instead of the top backs. James Robinson is also in this tier, coming off the Travis Etienne injury.
Running back notes
| Player | POS | Thoughts |
|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | Love his talent, not his price |
| Darrell Henderson | RB | Will prob let someone else pay for him |
| Chris Carson | RB | YES |
| Miles Sanders | RB | This team is going to suck, if he is not the passing down back, I can’t pay for him in auction |
| Josh Jacobs | RB | Meh |
| David Montgomery | RB | YES |
| Mike Davis | RB | Yes |
| Damien Harris | RB | YES – esp in .5 |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | Meh |
| Javonte Williams | RB | YES |
| Chase Edmonds | RB | YES in PPR – OK in .5 |
| Michael Carter | RB | Let someone else do it |
| Trey Sermon | RB | YES |
| Melvin Gordon | RB | OK |
| A.J. Dillon | RB | Could be a league winner if Jones gets hurt |
| Gus Edwards | RB | Great value compared to Dobbins in an auction |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | Sure |
| James Conner | RB | Yes |
| Zack Moss | RB | Sure |
| Sony Michel | RB | Yes |
| Ronald Jones | RB | YES |
| Tony Pollard | RB | (see AJ Dillon) |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | YES! |
| Kenyan Drake | RB | Yes |
| Devin Singletary | RB | Meh |
| Phillip Lindsay | RB | Meh |
Value running backs
- James White and J.D. McKissic are great value in full PPR, but they are OK value even in 0.5 PPR.
- Ty Johnson could be sneaky.
- Rhamondre Stevenson is a good guy to target late, especially if you invest in Damien Harris and have a decent-sized bench. I like to handcuff valuable RB assets if the benches are deep enough.
- Tony Jones is the stash if you draft Kamara, and he also works as a standalone late RB target.
- Jerick McKinnon is fragile, but he could win a week or two when he’s healthy if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out (and he’s already banged up).
Wide receiver notes
| Player | Team | Thoughts |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | SEA | Yes |
| Tee Higgins | CIN | Yes |
| Adam Thielen | MIN | No |
| Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | Nah |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SF | Yes |
| Jerry Jeudy | DEN | Big yes |
| Odell Beckham | CLV | No |
| Chase Claypool | PIT | Sure |
| Kenny Golladay | NYG | Yes at his price |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | PIT | Yes |
| Brandin Cooks | HOU | Sure |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | Nah |
| Tyler Boyd | CIN | Yes |
| Will Fuller | MIA | Yes, you play to win the game! |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | No |
| Laviska Shenault | JAX | Big yes |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | Yes |
| Michael Gallup | DAL | Yes |
| Antonio Brown | TB | Yes |
| Curtis Samuel | WAS | No |
| Corey Davis | NYJ | Yes |
| Mike Williams | LAC | Yes |
| D.J. Chark | JAX | No |
| Marvin Jones | JAX | Yes |
| Jaylen Waddle | MIA | Sure |
| Jarvis Landry | CLV | Yes, he’s an insane value in PPR |
| Darnell Mooney | CHI | Yes, he’s a stud |
| Elijah Moore | NYJ | Prefer in best ball, but yes |
| Rondale Moore | ARI | See above, but both Moore’s are targets |
| Mecole Hardman | KC | Probably won’t pay his price |
| DeVante Parker | MIA | Yes, if he’s cheap |
| Michael Pittman | IND | See above |
| Russell Gage | ATL | Yes in PPR only |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | Yes |
| Emmanuel Sanders | BUF | Better for best ball |
| Nelson Agholor | NE | YES |
| Jakobi Meyers | NE | Yes |
| Henry Ruggs | LVR | No |
| Sterling Shepard | NYG | Sure |
Value wide receivers
- Terrace Marshall is definitely a player to target.
- Nelson Agholor is a steal. He could be the WR1 in New England and would get a bump if/when Cam Newton is replaced.
- Jakobi Meyers is similar to Agholor, though I prefer Agholor.
- Tyrell Williams is a No. 1 receiver going at No. 3 prices. He’ll be good when he plays.
- Parris Campbell is a sneaky option.
Tight end
- Travis Kelce and Darren Waller are players to pay up for, though note: If you pay up at TE, I would not also pay up at QB.
- Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson are the cutoff for Tier 2 at the position.
- Gerald Everett and Irv Smith are my most-owned TEs.
- Tyler Kroft could be interesting for an end-of-draft $1.
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