MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
(FTN’s Matt Jones is going team-by-team to investigate some of the biggest fantasy issues around the NFL for the 2021 fantasy football season. Follow the whole Fantasy Football Multiverse series.)
The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a player from each team that is either polarizing or interesting in some other way. The flow will be the same throughout each article. For the Seattle Seahawks version of this piece, we’ll look at:
- Team-Level ADP
- The context for Gerald Everett
- Altering Everett’s Projection for 2021
Team-Level ADP
| Name | Position | Underdog ADP |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | QB1 | 75.3 |
| Chris Carson | RB1 | 39.7 |
| Rashaad Penny | RB2 | 167.7 |
| DK Metcalf | WR1 | 18.1 |
| Tyler Lockett | WR2 | 36.2 |
| D’Wayne Eskridge | WR3 | 201.6 |
| Gerald Everett | TE1 | 145 |
Context for Gerald Everett
Gerald Everett is currently going as the TE15 around pick 145. I wrote about the importance of grabbing elite tight ends in my When To Draft Series. I took a look at the Top 3 TEs off the board and compared them to TE4 through TE12 by ADP. Taking anyone from the TE12 to TE18 range has been a little worse than a coin flip. Of the 42 tight ends that fit this criteria, only 19 (45%) have hit above-average win rates. There are a handful of examples where a tight end came from this range to absolutely smash ADP, but they’re few and far between.
Altering Everett’s Projection for 2021
The problem with these also-ran tight end options is that they have no floor and can absolutely be a wasted pick. Once you get past the best option at tight end, where a TE is ranked is almost completely dependent on touchdowns. The gap between TE13 and TE18 can be as small as 1.5 PPG. Jeff Ratcliffe’s projections have him at 116.5 PPR Points with about a 13% target share.
There’s a real chance that Everett lands closer to 10-11% in target share. With only about 60-65 targets, he’ll likely land closer to 100 PPR Points for the season. That isn’t going to add anything to your squad. That’s right around 6 PPR Points per game. In a great matchup maybe he’ll be worth a stream, but that’s about the only way I’ll find him in my lineups this season.
