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Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 11

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If you thought the halfway point of the 2024 NFL season would signal more stability, think again. The Colts are unbenching their benched starting quarterback Anthony Richardson this week. The Broncos may have made a change at running back. And Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence are injured, pressing potential fantasy football saboteurs Cooper Rush and Mac Jones into quarterback duties.

It’s a lot to unpack for fantasy, but my Week 11 start and sit column can help. With its leaning on my comprehensive weekly fantasy projections that rank players and provide discrete fantasy values, you can set your lineups with confidence no matter your format or depth of fantasy league. Read on to see what it says for Week 11.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 11

Quarterbacks

5. Jayden Daniels, WAS at PHI: 29.0-238-1.13-0.35 and 6.3-34-0.37 = 19.0
6. Brock Purdy, SF vs. SEA: 30.9-273-1.55-0.74 and 3.3-16-0.17 = 18.3

7. Jared Goff, DET vs. JAX

28.1-241-2.08-0.76 and 1.5-2-0.04 = 16.8

You shouldn’t expect any quarterback who throws five interceptions one week to suffer a similar fate in the next one. But Goff has a couple of extra reasons to suspect his disastrous Sunday night was a fluke. One, the Texans defense he faced ranks second in defensive DVOA. And two, Goff has averaged 5.1 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his Lions tenure, the most extreme home/road split among current quarterback starters. Start Goff with confidence back home in Detroit and facing the 31st-ranked Jaguars defense in Week 11.

8. Drake Maye, NE vs. LA

33.4-215-1.37-1.00 and 4.0-37-0.12 = 16.6

FOXBOROUGH, MA - AUGUST 15: New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) drops back during a preseason game between the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles on August 15, 2024, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)
FOXBOROUGH, MA – AUGUST 15: New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) drops back during a preseason game between the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles on August 15, 2024, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire)

Maye has cooled off with two passing touchdowns in the last three weeks after his quick start with five in his first two starts. But the rookie can survive those ebbs and flows in fantasy thanks to his rushing contributions. Maye has 221 rushing yards in his first five professional starts. That’s more than Kyler Murray (206), Anthony Richardson (192) and Josh Allen (129), and it makes him a fantasy QB1.

https://twitter.com/Scott_Spratt/status/1856708062016368974

9. Jordan Love, GB at CHI

33.3-252-1.87-1.07 and 2.2-7-0.08 = 16.5

Love has suffered a start-and-stop season, missing two weeks with an injury, leaving another game early, and taking a bye in Week 10. But with a longer view, Love is tied for third with 47 passing touchdowns since the start of 2023. Start him when he plays.

10. Matthew Stafford, LA at NE

37.0-269-1.78-0.81 and 1.2-1-0.03 = 16.5

Stafford upset what had been his marked split with and without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua active with no touchdown passes in a disappointing Monday night performance. But the veteran still tied for seventh with seven red zone passes for the week. He should have better touchdown luck in future weeks. Continue to start him.

11. Patrick Mahomes, KC at BUF

34.7-246-1.56-0.87 and 3.3-14-0.08 = 16.2

The Chiefs may be skewing run a bit too much for Mahomes to enjoy his typical top-five fantasy value. But the two-time MVP has rebounded since the DeAndre Hopkins trade. Mahomes threw five touchdowns in his first three games with Rashee Rice He slipped to one touchdown in his next three games with neither Rice nor Hopkins. And he has six touchdowns his last three games with Hopkins. If you hadn’t already, you can return Mahomes to your fantasy lineups.

12. Geno Smith, SEA at SF

36.0-270-1.30-0.97 and 2.9-16-0.11 = 16.2

Smith’s 363-yard, three-touchdown outburst in Week 9 looks like an outlier compared to his other passing box scores in 2024. But the veteran passer has looked consistently better by his advanced metrics. He ranks 13th in passing DYAR and is comfortably above average in passing DVOA and EPA per dropback. I’m optimistic his fantasy productivity will improve to match his real efficiency in the second half of the season, especially now that Jaxon Smith-Njigba enjoyed a breakout performance and DK Metcalf had a bye week to rest his injured knee.

13. Kirk Cousins, ATL at DEN

34.2-271-1.57-0.79 and 1.4-0-0.05 = 15.8

Cousins looked like the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 785 yards and eight touchdowns in two starts against his new divisional-rival Buccaneers. But the veteran quarterback spurred those outbursts with an outlier 58 pass attempts in his first Tampa matchup in Week 5. And Cousins has averaged a modest 30.6 attempts in his other nine starts this season. With Bijan Robinson playing up to his top-10 draft standard, the Falcons are skewing run. And without his own rushing versatility, Cousins falls just below the fantasy QB1 benchmark.

14. Justin Herbert, LAC vs. CIN: 29.8-232-1.34-0.30 and 3.4-11-0.10 = 15.7
15. Bo Nix, DEN vs. ATL: 32.5-197-1.14-0.65 and 5.8-28-0.30 = 15.7
16. C.J. Stroud, HST at DAL: 33.8-244-1.35-0.58 and 2.6-12-0.08 = 15.7
17. Sam Darnold, MIN at TEN: 29.0-238-1.65-1.02 and 3.6-14-0.03 = 15.7
18. Anthony Richardson, IND at NYJ: 28.1-201-0.96-1.04 and 6.5-40-0.31 = 15.6
19. Russell Wilson, PIT vs. BLT: 29.6-221-1.60-0.53 and 2.2-8-0.10 = 15.5
20. Derek Carr, NO vs. CLV: 30.6-238-1.47-0.61 and 1.7-5-0.12 = 15.3
21. Jameis Winston, CLV at NO: 37.9-252-1.63-1.18 and 2.9-7-0.06 = 15.3
22. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. LV: 33.0-254-1.45-0.79 and 1.5-5-0.03 = 15.1
23. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ vs. IND: 35.4-228-1.59-0.71 and 0.7-2-0.01 = 14.4
24. Caleb Williams, CHI vs. GB: 31.8-193-1.15-0.57 and 3.9-23-0.09 = 14.0

Running Backs

9. Kareem Hunt, KC at BUF: 20.7-74-0.95 and 2.4-1.9-13-0.07 = 15.8
10. Jonathan Taylor, IND at NYJ: 17.3-83-0.71 and 3.0-2.1-16-0.05 = 15.6
11. Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs. JAX: 14.0-81-0.53 and 3.6-2.8-21-0.11 = 15.4
12. Chase Brown, CIN at LAC: 16.0-70-0.50 and 4.9-4.0-23-0.18 = 15.4
13. Kenneth Walker III, SEA at SF: 14.4-59-0.58 and 4.6-3.9-29-0.13 = 15.0
14. Aaron Jones, MIN at TEN: 15.8-73-0.47 and 3.0-2.5-21-0.12 = 14.2
15. D’Andre Swift, CHI vs. GB: 17.1-69-0.51 and 3.1-2.6-20-0.06 = 13.7
16. James Cook, BUF vs. KC: 14.3-65-0.49 and 3.2-2.6-22-0.12 = 13.5
17. Josh Jacobs, GB at CHI: 15.7-76-0.41 and 3.1-2.4-17-0.09 = 13.5
18. Breece Hall, NYJ vs. IND: 14.3-59-0.36 and 4.6-3.3-30-0.11 = 13.3
19. J.K. Dobbins, LAC vs. CIN: 16.1-77-0.44 and 3.1-2.6-13-0.07 = 13.3
20. David Montgomery, DET vs. JAX: 13.2-57-0.70 and 2.1-1.8-16-0.04 = 12.6
21. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE vs. LA: 14.3-55-0.50 and 3.3-2.6-14-0.10 = 11.9
22. Nick Chubb, CLV at NO: 16.9-68-0.54 and 1.5-1.0-7-0.03 = 11.4
23. Brian Robinson Jr., WAS at PHI: 13.6-60-0.56 and 1.5-1.2-10-0.05 = 11.3
24. Tony Pollard, TEN vs. MIN: 12.8-56-0.32 and 3.7-2.9-17-0.07 = 11.2
25. Travis Etienne Jr., JAX at DET: 12.8-54-0.42 and 2.9-2.2-15-0.06 = 10.8
26. Najee Harris, PIT vs. BLT: 15.2-63-0.43 and 1.9-1.4-11-0.04 = 10.8

27. Alexander Mattison, LV at MIA

11.9-42-0.43 and 2.9-2.3-19-0.10 = 10.3

Mattison will be hard-pressed to score touchdowns at an average running back rate with either Desmond Ridder or Gardner Minshew II as his quarterback. But the former Vikings back is still unlucky to have just one touchdown since Week 6 with his silver-medal total of seven carries inside the 5-yard line in that time. Mattison’s 2.78 expected touchdown shortfall since Week 6 is second highest at the position. Bet on the bounceback.

28. Rico Dowdle, DAL vs. HST

11.9-53-0.26 and 2.8-2.3-16-0.11 = 10.2

BALTIMORE, MD - DECEMBER 08: Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle (34) warms up for the Dallas Cowboys game versus the Baltimore Ravens on December 8, 2020 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
BALTIMORE, MD – DECEMBER 08: Dallas Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle (34) warms up for the Dallas Cowboys game versus the Baltimore Ravens on December 8, 2020 at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)

The Cowboys have entertained other running back options. But Dowdle wasn’t just the flavor of Weeks 9 and 10. The former backup earned his 60-plus percent snap share with a 48.2% rushing success rate that is third highest among backs with 75 or more carries this season and dramatically better than Ezekiel Elliott’s 31.5% and Dalvin Cook’s 12.5% rates. Expect Dowdle to continue to pace his Cowboys backfield in touches and start him at flex with confidence.

29. Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. BLT

9.6-43-0.21 and 2.9-2.4-16-0.06 = 8.8

Warren injured his hamstring in the preseason, and he was limited to less than a 40% snap shares in three of his first four outings on either side of a Week 4 and 5 absence. But the third-year back has looked much healthier since mid-October, playing close to 50% of snaps the last three weeks and averaging 13.7 touches per game. There is a sizable gap between Warren and the next flex running back option, and the former could widen it with a bit better touchdown luck.

30. Tyjae Spears, TEN vs. MIN

6.7-29-0.15 and 3.5-2.9-19-0.08 = 7.6

Spears showed no ill effects from the hamstring injury that left him inactive in the previous three weeks, playing a season high 46 percent snap share in Week 10. But even more involved than most No. 2 running backs, Spears faces a difficult fantasy hurdle because of his team. Often overmatched with Will Levis or Mason Rudolph at quarterback, the Titans have played a bottom five total of 553 offensive plays this season. Don’t expect many extended Titans drives on Sunday against a Vikings defense that ranks first in defensive DVOA. And don’t expect Spears to see 10 or more touches.

31. Austin Ekeler, WAS at PHI

5.8-26-0.22 and 2.9-2.3-21-0.08 = 7.6

Ekeler secured his trustworthy handcuff status with 14 touches each of the last two weeks and three combined touchdowns. But his teammate and preferred Commanders early-down and red zone runner Brian Robinson Jr. has been cleared to return for Thursday night. You could play Ekeler in a bye-week pinch. But don’t expect his early November numbers.

32. Raheem Mostert, MIA vs. LV

6.7-30-0.28 and 2.1-1.6-13-0.06 = 7.1

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - NOVEMBER 13: Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) looks toward the stands after scoring a touchdown during the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, November 13, 2022 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)
MIAMI GARDENS, FL – NOVEMBER 13: Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) looks toward the stands after scoring a touchdown during the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, November 13, 2022 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

Dolphins head coach Mike McDonald told reporters that Mostert was less involved Monday night because of a specific game plan and that he remained confident in the veteran back. But it’s difficult to be confident in Mostert in fantasy after he logged season lows of six carries and eight touches in a healthy week.

33. Audric Estime, DEN vs. ATL

9.5-44-0.25 and 0.8-0.6-5-0.02 = 6.7

Estime looked like the new No. 1 Broncos back last Sunday, outsnapping previous starter Javonte Williams 45% to 29% and out-touching him 14 to 3. But Broncos coach Sean Payton told reporters the rookie would be more involved in Week 9, and that wasn’t the case. Estime is a decent enough fantasy bet this week. But I’m not ready to trust his workload after one week of it, especially since Estime has yet to see a target this season.

34. Tyler Allgeier, ATL at DEN: 8.6-40-0.28 and 0.8-0.7-5-0.02 = 6.7
35. Zach Charbonnet, SEA at SF: 4.3-16-0.16 and 2.9-2.3-16-0.06 = 5.7
36. Gus Edwards, LAC vs. CIN: 7.5-30-0.28 and 0.4-0.3-2-0.01 = 5.1
37. Javonte Williams, DEN vs. ATL: 3.6-14-0.11 and 2.3-1.8-12-0.04 = 4.4
38. Jerome Ford, CLV at NO: 3.2-14-0.07 and 2.6-2.0-11-0.06 = 4.3
39. Ray Davis, BUF vs. KC: 4.7-20-0.13 and 1.1-0.9-9-0.03 = 4.3
40. Justice Hill, BLT at PIT: 2.7-11-0.07 and 1.9-1.6-15-0.06 = 4.2
41. Braelon Allen, NYJ vs. IND: 5.8-23-0.16 and 0.9-0.6-5-0.02 = 4.1
42. Cam Akers, MIN at TEN: 6.2-24-0.16 and 0.7-0.5-3-0.02 = 4.0

Wide Receivers

13. George Pickens, PIT vs. BLT: 7.5-4.6-73-0.36 = 11.9
14. Terry McLaurin, WAS at PHI: 6.5-4.5-66-0.48 = 11.8
15. Jakobi Meyers, LV at MIA: 7.9-5.6-63-0.37 = 11.4
16. Darnell Mooney, ATL at DEN: 8.0-4.7-68-0.35 = 11.3
17. Deebo Samuel Sr., SF vs. SEA: 5.9-3.8-56-0.26 = 11.3
18. Tee Higgins, CIN at LAC: 7.6-4.8-62-0.42 = 11.1
19. Tyreek Hill, MIA vs. LV: 7.2-4.6-63-0.34 = 11.0
20. Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. KC: 6.5-5.6-65-0.25 = 11.0
21. Courtland Sutton, DEN vs. ATL: 8.6-4.7-63-0.38 = 10.9
22. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA at SF: 7.8-5.2-60-0.38 = 10.8
23. Jayden Reed, GB at CHI: 5.5-4.0-62-0.29 = 10.8
24. Zay Flowers, BLT at PIT: 7.0-4.8-64-0.30 = 10.8
25. Calvin Ridley, TEN vs. MIN: 9.0-4.3-61-0.38 = 10.7
26. Cedric Tillman, CLV at NO: 8.0-4.9-57-0.39 = 10.5
27. Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. CIN: 6.8-4.6-60-0.35 = 10.4
28. Jauan Jennings, SF vs. SEA: 6.3-4.2-61-0.34 = 10.2
29. Amari Cooper, BUF vs. KC: 6.3-4.0-60-0.36 = 10.2
30. Josh Downs, IND at NYJ: 7.3-5.0-55-0.31 = 9.9
31. Tank Dell, HST at DAL: 6.9-4.3-53-0.35 = 9.8
32. DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. WAS: 5.9-4.3-56-0.30 = 9.6
33. DeAndre Hopkins, KC at BUF: 6.0-4.0-51-0.41 = 9.5
34. DJ Moore, CHI vs. GB: 7.0-4.3-50-0.34 = 9.5
35. Brian Thomas Jr., JAX at DET: 5.5-3.6-56-0.33 = 9.4
36. Romeo Doubs, GB at CHI: 6.0-3.9-52-0.34 = 9.2
37. Jerry Jeudy, CLV at NO: 7.4-4.1-54-0.28 = 9.2
38. Keenan Allen, CHI vs. GB: 7.0-4.3-47-0.31 = 8.7

39. Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. LV

5.5-3.8-51-0.21 = 8.4

Waddle threw a wrench in what had looked like a clean Tua Tagovailoa split with -4 yards on two catches in Week 9. But even with that dud of a performance, Waddle has nearly doubled his receiving total from 29.8 yards per game without his normal quarterback to 49.6 yards per game with Tagovailoa healthy this season. You can flex him now that the Dolphins offense has all of its star plays back.

40. Rome Odunze, CHI vs. GB

5.9-3.4-46-0.25 = 7.9

CHICAGO, IL - AUGUST 17: Chicago Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze (15) reacts after a play during a preseason game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Chicago Bears on August 17, 2024, at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Joseph Weiser/Icon Sportswire)
CHICAGO, IL – AUGUST 17: Chicago Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze (15) reacts after a play during a preseason game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Chicago Bears on August 17, 2024, at Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Joseph Weiser/Icon Sportswire)

Thomas Brown may not be the Caleb Williams fixer at playcaller if his lack of success with Bryce Young in Carolina was any indication. But even in an uninspiring Shane Waldron offense, the rookie Odunze has averaged 50 yards in his last five games. He’s a reasonable flex bet with four teams on bye in Week 11.

41. Quentin Johnston, LAC vs. CIN

4.9-3.1-43-0.30 = 7.8

Johnston may not see typical No. 1 receiver target volume on Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers team that would run every play if they could get away with it. But the sophomore receiver does not need that traditional volume to earn flex value thanks to his improved efficiency. With a new role that better fits his skill set, Johnston has nearly doubled his average yards after the catch from 4.0 yards in 2023 to 7.9 yards this season. And that latter rate is fifth highest among regular receivers.

42. Tyler Lockett, SEA at SF

5.4-3.5-44-0.26 = 7.7

Lockett may finally be facing a third receiver target share after his teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out with seven catches, 180 yards, and a touchdown before their Week 10 bye and with DK Metcalf poised to return to from his knee injury this Sunday. But the veteran receiver has been defying fantasy player expectations that he would decline in his 30s for the past three seasons. I wouldn’t be too scared to start him at flex with four teams on bye in Week 11.

43. Jameson Williams, DET vs. JAX

4.7-2.7-45-0.22 = 7.6

Williams missed Weeks 8 and 9 because of a suspension rather than an injury. And if there was any concern that his absence would redefine his role in the offense, he answered them with a 74% snap share in Week 10 that was almost identical to his 75% shares in Weeks 6 and 7 before the suspension. You can trust Williams as a boom-or-bust back-end flex option.

44. DeMario Douglas, NE vs. LA

6.0-4.3-43-0.18 = 7.6

MIAMI GARDENS, FL - OCTOBER 29: New England Patriots wide receiver Demario Douglas (81) looks toward the ball after missing a would-be touchdown catch as mis4 defends during the game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, October 29, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)
MIAMI GARDENS, FL – OCTOBER 29: New England Patriots wide receiver Demario Douglas (81) looks toward the ball after missing a would-be touchdown catch as mis4 defends during the game between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, October 29, 2023 at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire)

Drake Maye may have injected some life into the Patriots offense. But the rookie has spread the ball around too much for any of his wide receivers to be an appealing fantasy option. Maye has had a different leading receiver in four of the five starts — Douglas, Hunter Henry, Kayshon Boutte and Austin Hooper — and the only repeat was the tight end Henry. Consider Douglas only if you have bye issues in Week 11.

45. Christian Watson, GB at CHI: 5.0-2.9-41-0.31 = 7.5
46. Noah Brown, WAS at PHI: 5.0-3.2-45-0.20 = 7.3
47. Elijah Moore, CLV at NO: 6.6-4.2-39-0.21 = 7.3
48. Gabe Davis, JAX at DET: 5.2-2.7-39-0.26 = 6.8
49. Alec Pierce, IND at NYJ: 4.3-2.4-44-0.20 = 6.8
50. Jordan Addison, MIN at TEN: 4.3-2.8-37-0.25 = 6.8
51. Kayshon Boutte, NE vs. LA: 4.7-2.8-37-0.19 = 6.3
52. Demarcus Robinson, LA at NE: 4.3-2.4-34-0.28 = 6.2
53. Adonai Mitchell, IND at NYJ: 4.6-2.8-34-0.18 = 6.0
54. Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL at DEN: 4.4-3.1-32-0.14 = 6.0
55. Xavier Worthy, KC at BUF: 4.7-2.4-30-0.23 = 5.9
56. Rashod Bateman, BLT at PIT: 3.8-2.4-36-0.18 = 5.9
57. Joshua Palmer, LAC vs. CIN: 3.8-2.4-37-0.17 = 5.9
58. JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC at BUF: 4.0-2.8-34-0.18 = 5.8
59. Ricky Pearsall, SF vs. SEA: 4.0-2.7-33-0.19 = 5.8
60. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN vs. MIN: 3.9-2.5-30-0.25 = 5.8
61. Jalen Tolbert, DAL vs. HST: 3.8-2.6-29-0.19 = 5.3
62. Cedrick Wilson Jr., NO vs. CLV: 3.7-2.4-29-0.17 = 5.1
63. Calvin Austin III, PIT vs. BLT: 4.0-2.2-29-0.16 = 5.1
64. Curtis Samuel, BUF vs. KC: 4.0-2.6-26-0.17 = 5.1
65. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, NO vs. CLV: 3.4-1.8-29-0.15 = 4.7
66. Tre Tucker, LV at MIA: 3.5-2.0-24-0.12 = 4.6
67. Devaughn Vele, DEN vs. ATL: 3.2-2.3-26-0.14 = 4.6
68. Mack Hollins, BUF vs. KC: 3.4-2.0-25-0.16 = 4.5
69. Lil’Jordan Humphrey, DEN vs. ATL: 3.4-2.2-23-0.15 = 4.3
70. Dontayvion Wicks, GB at CHI: 3.7-1.7-22-0.16 = 4.0
71. Diontae Johnson, BLT at PIT: 3.2-1.7-21-0.16 = 3.9

Tight Ends

6. Hunter Henry, NE vs. LA: 6.2-4.4-46-0.27 = 8.5
7. Taysom Hill, NO vs. CLV: 3.3-2.5-24-0.15 = 8.5
8. Kyle Pitts, ATL at DEN: 5.4-3.7-51-0.25 = 8.4
9. Sam LaPorta, DET vs. JAX: 4.9-3.7-45-0.31 = 8.2

10. Mark Andrews, BLT at PIT

4.4-3.5-41-0.33 = 7.8

Andrews has rebounded massively from his slow fantasy start with five touchdowns in the last five weeks. But the veteran’s recent fantasy success could prove as fickle as his early-season slump because of touchdown luck. Andrews has modest totals of seven red zone targets and three end zone targets since Week 6 and has enjoyed a 3.02 expected touchdown surplus that is the highest among tight ends in that time. His teammate Isaiah Likely has the same three end zone targets in the same period and hasn’t scored once. You should start Andrews because of the lack of depth at the position in fantasy. But don’t be stunned if he produces a two-catch, 20-yard dud Sunday.

11. Tucker Kraft, GB at CHI

4.7-3.4-42-0.29 = 7.7

GREEN BAY, WI - NOVEMBER 19: Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (85) leaps towards the end zone during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Chargers at Lambeau Field on November 19, 2023 in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)
GREEN BAY, WI – NOVEMBER 19: Green Bay Packers tight end Tucker Kraft (85) leaps towards the end zone during a game between the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Chargers at Lambeau Field on November 19, 2023 in Green Bay, WI. (Photo by Larry Radloff/Icon Sportswire)

Like Andrews, Kraft is likely lower in my tight end rankings than you would expect because of his expected touchdown surplus. But the talented sophomore tight end may owe less of his surplus to random luck than most players thanks to his after-the-catch skills. Kraft is averaging 9.3 yards after the catch this season, dramatically clear of Sam LaPorta in second place among regular tight ends at 7.7 average YAC.

12. T.J. Hockenson, MIN at TEN

5.4-4.0-41-0.23 = 7.5

Last year’s tight end catch silver medalist Hockenson may not have moved the needle from his 45 percent snap share in his return from his torn ACL in Week 9 to his 46% share in Week 10. But the veteran did more than double his target total from four in his debut to nine last week. I believe Hockenson’s floor is high enough to trust him in fantasy lineups, and he should only improve as he regains confidence in his knee the rest of this season.

13. Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. WAS

4.8-3.7-43-0.21 = 7.4

Goedert’s modest two catches and 25 yards from Week 10 were hardly unusual from even a top fantasy tight end. But the veteran may still be limited by the hamstring injury that cost him Weeks 7 to 9. I’m projecting Goedert a bit more conservatively than usual because of that fear, and that drops him just below the TE1 benchmark in Week 11.

14. Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. HST

5.3-3.9-35-0.20 = 6.6

MINNEAPOLIS, MN - NOVEMBER 20: Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (87) warms up before a game between the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys on November 20, 2022, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – NOVEMBER 20: Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (87) warms up before a game between the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys on November 20, 2022, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)

Ferguson may be a top-10 tight end talent. But the Cowboys’ downgrade from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush at quarterback seems likely to sabotage his TE1 fantasy potential. Rush managed a meager 23 pass attempts in his first start of the season in Week 10 and averaged a ghastly 2.0 yards per attempt. Ferguson could be Travis Kelce and he wouldn’t overcome that.

15. Mike Gesicki, CIN at LAC

4.3-3.2-35-0.23 = 6.5

Gesicki has looked like an unusual tight-end-for-wide-receiver handcuff averaging 4.2 catches, 62 yards and 0.4 touchdowns in five games with Tee Higgins sidelined versus 1.6 catches, 14 yards, and 0.0 touchdowns in five games with Higgins active. Gesicki set season highs in touchdowns (2) and targets (9) in the last two weeks. But don’t count on that continued production with Higgins trending to return this Sunday night.

16. Jonnu Smith, MIA vs. LV: 4.7-3.5-37-0.17 = 6.5
17. Cole Kmet, CHI vs. GB: 3.7-3.0-32-0.23 = 6.1
18. Zach Ertz, WAS at PHI: 4.7-3.2-32-0.20 = 6.0
19. Will Dissly, LAC vs. CIN: 4.4-3.5-30-0.14 = 5.5
20. Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. BLT: 3.5-2.8-28-0.19 = 5.3
21. Juwan Johnson, NO vs. CLV: 3.6-2.6-28-0.16 = 5.1
22. Dalton Schultz, HST at DAL: 4.3-2.6-28-0.15 = 5.0
23. A.J. Barner AJ Barner, SEA at SF: 3.4-2.6-25-0.18 = 4.9
24. Isaiah Likely, BLT at PIT: 3.0-2.1-24-0.22 = 4.8
25. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. IND: 3.6-2.4-23-0.15 = 4.4
26. Dawson Knox, BUF vs. KC: 3.1-2.1-23-0.18 = 4.3
27. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN vs. MIN: 3.2-2.4-23-0.13 = 4.2
28. Austin Hooper, NE vs. LA: 3.3-2.2-23-0.13 = 4.2
29. Davis Allen, LA at NE: 3.2-2.1-19-0.14 = 3.8
30. Foster Moreau, NO vs. CLV: 2.4-1.7-20-0.16 = 3.8
31. Tanner Hudson, CIN at LAC: 2.8-2.1-19-0.12 = 3.6
32. Josh Oliver, MIN at TEN: 2.2-1.7-19-0.15 = 3.6
33. Brenton Strange, JAX at DET: 2.3-1.6-16-0.12 = 3.1
34. Adam Trautman, DEN vs. ATL: 2.0-1.4-17-0.11 = 3.0
35. Noah Gray, KC at BUF: 1.8-1.4-16-0.07 = 2.7

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