Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 13 Usage Report. This piece is designed to give you a glimpse of both rushing shares and usage rates for running backs, wide receivers, and occasionally tight ends. It will help you understand how often a player is involved in his team’s game plan and if those players are susceptible to being faded or emphasized during various game scripts.
(To see more, check out our Weekly Rushing Share and Usage by Situation pages.)
Definitions:
tgt_big_lead — Target share when team is leading by 14+ points
tgt_leading — Target share when team is leading by 9-13 points
tgt_one_score — Target share when team is in a one score game
tgt_down — Target share when team is down by 9-13 points
tgt_down_big — Target share when team is down by 14+ points
Weekly Rushing Share
Tier 1 – Teams with Situations in Flux
Buffalo Bills
The emergence of Matt Breida in recent weeks led to Zack Moss being a healthy scratch in Week 12. Breida still split time with Devin Singletary, but Breida’s game-breaking speed has flashed on several occasions. He could be a late-season league winner at the running back position and is capable of producing big plays each time the ball is in his hands.
Carolina Panthers
Much to the dismay of fantasy managers everywhere, Christian McCaffrey has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Some combination of Chuba Hubbard and Ameer Abdullah figures to handle backfield duties moving forward, but the Panthers’ running backs have a brutal upcoming schedule. Both players will have some semblance of value, but it might take a week or two to figure that out.
Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook is expected to miss at least two games due to a shoulder injury, but it looks like he will avoid landing on injured reserve. Alexander Mattison is already a well-known commodity for his spot starts over the last two seasons. Mattison is an RB1 on volume alone and should have no issue topping 20 total touches in each of the next two weeks.
Tier 2 – Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Atlanta Falcons
Cordarrelle Patterson continues to defy odds with his usage and production. Week 12 was just the third time he’s topped 10 carries in a game and the first time he cracked 100 rushing yards; his previous high-water mark was 60. The RB2 role in Atlanta has not been very valuable in recent weeks as Mike Davis, Wayne Gallman and even Qadree Ollison have had flashes of production.
Baltimore Ravens
Latavius Murray continues to work his way back into the rotation following a multi-week absence. We also saw the brief reemergence of Ty’Son Williams in Week 12. Devonta Freeman is the primary ball carrier and should fare well in positive gamescripts. Lamar Jackson is always a threat to overtake the ground attack.
Cleveland Browns
In Kareem Hunt’s first game back in over a month, Nick Chubb posted a season-low mark in carries (8). Hunt finished Week 12 with seven carries. It was a frustrating week for the Browns who forced four interceptions but only managed to score 10 points. Chubb and Hunt both figure to have a role moving forward.
Dallas Cowboys
Despite reports that Ezekiel Elliott would have his workload monitored over the next few weeks, recent news suggests that he’ll be a candidate for his normal role in the Dallas offense. Tony Pollard has looked much more explosive in his limited role and would immediately become an RB1 (much like Mattison) should Elliott miss any meaningful time.
Detroit Lions
There is no official word on how long D’Andre Swift will be out with a shoulder injury, but it sounds like it could be several weeks. He has not been formally placed on injured reserve. The Lions do not have anything to play for this year relative to postseason expectations which means Jamaal Williams could fill in nicely for fantasy managers down the stretch. In Week 12, Williams racked up 20 touches for 83 yards.
Green Bay Packers
Despite rumors that he might not play, Aaron Jones returned from his one-game absence in Week 12 to post a quiet line of 10-23. In his stead, AJ Dillon posted a season-high 20 carries and hauled in all five of his targets. The Packers are on bye this week which means Jones should have the chance to get back to full health. It will be worth following how the team deploys these two players in Week 14.
Miami Dolphins
Myles Gaskin continues to be the leader in the backfield for the Dolphins, but newcomer Phillip Lindsay could earn more touches in the weeks ahead. Lindsay saw 12 carries (largely in garbage time) to Gaskin’s 16 and was more efficient than Gaskin, but the latter scored twice on the ground. It remains to be seen if this situation evolves into a true timeshare.
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara has missed three consecutive games and Mark Ingram has missed one, but both are trending in the right direction for their game Thursday. Ingram seems more likely to play as an air of caution seems to surround Kamara’s situation. It’s also worth noting that Taysom Hill is expected to be under center this week, which would have an impact on the ground game for both players.
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley hasn’t topped 57 rushing yards this season and has not scored since Week 4. Still, the team appears committed to getting him involved as he works his way back from an injury that forced him to miss four games. The Giants moved on from OC Jason Garrett last week, and the offense as a whole is still talented on paper.
New York Jets
Michael Carter is on injured reserve for the next few weeks, which opened the door for veteran Tevin Coleman to have a solid game in Week 12. Ty Johnson remains in the rotation, but it looks like Coleman and a surprise in the form of Austin Walter, will head up the Jets’ backfield for the time being.
Tennessee Titans
Perhaps the biggest surprise of Week 12 came when both D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard topped 100 rushing yards against the Patriots. Despite losing the game, it was encouraging to see the Titans “establish the run” and get both players involved. Hilliard offers a bit more as a pass-catcher. but both figure to remain involved as the Titans push for the No. 1 spot in the AFC.
Tier 3 – Teams with Stable Situations
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals are coming off their bye as one of the top teams in the NFC. Chase Edmonds is not expected to be back until Week 14 when they take on the Rams in a pivotal divisional matchup. James Conner continues to score touchdowns at a surprising rate, and he’s totaled 52 carries, 13 receptions and five touchdowns in his last three games.
Chicago Bears
David Montgomery has topped 10 carries in each healthy game this season. He remains the RB1 for the Bears as long as he is out there.
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon SZN might be my favorite season this year. The current RB3 overall, he has 13 total touchdowns and is simply dominating at this stage.
Denver Broncos
Incumbent Melvin Gordon is dealing with a few minor injuries and did not practice Wednesday. Still, the Broncos are optimistic about his availability for a big Sunday night matchup against the Chiefs. Javonte Williams continues to impress with his small sample size, and he racked up over 100 scrimmage yards in Week 12.
Houston Texans
David Johnson does have 23 carries over his last two performances but has not been able to do much of anything with them. His lone touchdown of the season came back in Week 1.
Indianapolis Colts
Even Jonathan Taylor couldn’t top 100 yards from scrimmage against the Buccaneers. He still scored for the ninth straight game and has 16 touchdowns on the season. RB1 on the season and dynasty RB1 confirmed.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The 86 rushing yards from James Robinson in Week 12 were the most he’s posted since Week 5. He also has two touchdowns in his last three weeks. Robinson remains the primary running back for the Jaguars and, despite their offensive struggles, he still has value.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs come out of their bye with a healthy Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He returned in Week 11 after missing five games and posted an efficient rushing line of 12-63-1. Darrel Williams returns to his backup role despite filling in admirably for over a month.
Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs posted season-high marks in carries (22) and rushing yards (87) on Thanksgiving. He remains a low-end RB2 who is dependent on scoring touchdowns. However, he does have at least four targets in four consecutive games.
Los Angeles Chargers
I will admit it: I did not realize that Austin Ekeler already had 14 touchdowns this season. He has seven on the ground and seven through the air, and those receiving ones are often ones that I miss. He’s the RB2 on the season and heavily involved in all aspects of the offense.
Los Angeles Rams
In a Week 12 loss to the Packers, Darrell Henderson saw his highest carry count (16) since Week 6. At the same time, Sony Michel saw his lowest carry count (3) over the last few weeks. Henderson is dealing with a quad injury but remains an integral part of the offense. He also has at least four targets in four of his last five games.
New England Patriots
Over the last three games that both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have played, Harris has 36 carries, Stevenson 31. It’s officially a committee, which limits the upside of both players. Brandon Bolden remains a sneaky PPR target for those who are desperate. He has 11 receptions over the last four weeks.
Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders is officially back in the rotation but is dealing with nagging injuries. Both Boston Scott and Jordan Howard have shown an ability to handle a larger workload as well. Kenneth Gainwell is strictly a pass-catching specialist who is dependent on game flow.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers were blown out in Week 12, which led to Najee Harris posting a season-low eight total carries. He did see five targets which highlights his importance to the offense. He rarely comes off the field and is still the RB4 on the season in PPR formats.
San Francisco 49ers
As long as Elijah Mitchell is healthy, this backfield belongs to him. He has four games with over 100 yards rushing and five with over 90 rushing yards. In Week 12, he caught five of six targets for 35 yards. If he adds that element to his game, he has RB1 upside each week.
Seattle Seahawks
This offense is not performing well, and it has trickled down to the rushing game. Alex Collins carried the ball seven times in Week 12, which was his lowest since Week 3. He’s struggled to do much of anything and does not warrant a spot in your starting lineup. The team did sign Adrian Peterson to the practice squad Wednesday, but considering his performance in Tennessee, it’s best not to expect anything until he gives reason to believe.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Leonard Fournette is heating up at just the right time for fantasy managers. The current RB5 scored four times in Week 12, topped 100 rushing yards for the first time this season, and has at least six receptions in three straight games. The pass-catching element could vault him into the elite tier of running backs each week if it continues.
Washington Football Team
Over his last three games, Antonio Gibson has 72 carries for 270 rushing yards. He also recorded seven receptions on as many targets in a big victory Monday night. J.D. McKissic continues to be involved (and frustrate Gibson managers) as he scored twice this week.
Usage by Situation
Tier 1 – Teams with Situations in Flux
Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins have not played since Week 8, but both appear on track to play this week coming out of their bye. The offense has stayed afloat in their absence, but both the Cardinals and fantasy managers will be glad to see these two stars take the field again.
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton turned in arguably his worst performance as an NFL quarterback in Week 12. He completed just 5-of-21 passes for 92 yards and two interceptions. P.J. Walker took over in the fourth quarter once the game was out of reach. It will be worth following the news out of Carolina as the Panthers are on bye this week.
New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill will start for the Saints this week. Contract storylines aside, Hill does offer significantly more for fantasy managers. The Saints might be without Alvin Kamara, who has been sidelined with a knee injury for the last three weeks. Tre’Quan Smith has been coming on strong over the last few weeks and could be worth a spot in your lineup in deeper formats. The same goes for Marquez Callaway. Adam Trautman (currently on IR) remains a dynasty trade target.
Tier 2 – Teams with Situations worth Monitoring
Chicago Bears
Andy Dalton got the start on Thanksgiving in place of the injured Justin Fields. Fields practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday, which at least serves as a step in the right direction. Wide receiver Allen Robinson has not played since Week 9 and did not practice Wednesday, which leaves his situation in doubt heading into the second half of the week. Darnell Mooney has posted over 100 receiving yards in consecutive games and Cole Kmet, coming off a season-best line of 8-65 on 11 targets, did not practice Wednesday with a groin issue.
Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb cleared the concussion protocol and is good to go for Thursday night. However, Amari Cooper may not be able to play and is officially listed as questionable. He has missed the last two games due to COVID-19; he’s been activated from the Reserve/COVID-19 List, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll be ready to go Thursday. Dalton Schultz and Michael Gallup would be the immediate beneficiaries if Cooper is unable to go this week.
Los Angeles Rams
I have the Rams in this section because their offense has not looked the same since Robert Woods went down with a season-ending ACL injury. They flash big-play potential thanks to Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham, but this team is worth monitoring as they look to rebound over the final weeks of the regular season. Cooper Kupp continues to produce regardless of the game flow.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones has this offense clicking right now, and it’s enjoyable to watch. Despite not having any big-name offensive playmakers at any position, the combination of Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne — paired with their dual-threat backfield of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson — has made this offense quietly efficient and lethal. Monitor these receivers for deeper-league appeal heading into December and beyond.
Philadelphia Eagles
In his last five games, Jalen Hurts has only thrown three touchdown passes. He threw three interceptions in Week 12 but remains the QB2 overall thanks to his rushing ability. Hurts has at least 55 rushing yards in six straight games and has hit 30 rushing yards in every game. Jalen Reagor is but a distant memory and it would be nice to see more volume for both DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
San Francisco 49ers
Deebo Samuel, the WR2 overall, is slated to miss a game or two with a groin strain. His versatility as both a receiver and rusher is unmatched and has made him a fantasy cheat code this season. Brandon Aiyuk has stepped up in recent weeks after his bewildering start to the year. George Kittle has three scores in his last four games.
Tennessee Titans
Without A.J. Brown or Julio Jones, the Titans have turned to a combination of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chester Rogers. They churned out two 100-yard rushers in Week 12, which took the pressure off the passing game, but they are in need of help at that position.
Tier 3 – Teams with Stable Situations
Atlanta Falcons
The post-Calvin Ridley era has been brutal on the Falcons. Kyle Pitts only has one game since Week 7 with more than three receptions and double-digit fantasy points. His lone touchdown of the year came back in Week 5. Russell Gage has quietly taken over the WR1 role and has appeal in PPR formats.
Baltimore Ravens
The “Rashod Bateman breakout game watch” has stretched into yet another week. The Ravens continue to feature Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews which makes it difficult for a No. 3 option to have meaningful value. The Ravens won in Week 12 despite four interceptions from Lamar Jackson.
Buffalo Bills
The touchdowns are finally coming for Stefon Diggs. He has found the end zone six times in his last six games and sits as the WR6 on the season. Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley are both top-35 options as well and Dawson Knox continues to score from the tight end position.
Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins got back on track in a big way in Week 12 with a line of 6-114 on eight targets. He and Ja’Marr Chase are more than capable of coexisting on this offense as Joe Burrow continues to grow and mature as an NFL quarterback. Tyler Boyd has only topped eight fantasy points twice since Week 4.
Cleveland Browns
Jarvis Landry had his best game of the season in Week 12 when he broke the 100-yard mark for the first time this season. He missed four games early in the season but has 46 targets over his last six games. Baker Mayfield has been dealing with an array of injuries in recent weeks and has not played well. The team is reportedly not considering benching him at this time.
Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton has been one of the bigger fantasy disappointments this season. He has no more than two receptions in four consecutive games and has not scored since Week 6. Both he and Tim Patrick received contract extensions in recent weeks, but the team remains capped by the quarterback position.
Detroit Lions
There aren’t many teams that I want zero part of, but the Lions are close. T.J. Hockenson found the end zone in Week 12 for the first time since Week 2 and remains the only viable option at either wide receiver or tight end position.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are rolling on offense as Aaron Rodgers continues to lead at a high level. Davante Adams has WR1 upside each week and an assortment of other receivers and tight ends fill out the rest of the roster. Adams has at least six receptions in all but two games this season.
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
This offense may run through Jonathan Taylor, but a combination of Michael Pittman, T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle provides intrigue through the air for Carson Wentz. Doyle has three scores across his last five games and is a viable steaming option each week.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The darling that was Dan Arnold has now been placed on injured reserve. Laviska Shenault and Marvin Jones are seeing decent volume each week, but it hasn’t meant much for fantasy.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs come out of their bye with their offense looking like it’s back on track. Although they gutted out a close win in Week 11, Patrick Mahomes erupted for 406 yards and five scores the previous week. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will look to anchor this offense down the stretch.
Las Vegas Raiders
Hunter Renfrow has been one of the biggest steals of the draft based on ADP. He has at least five receptions in all but two games and set (or tied) season-high marks in targets (9), receptions (8), and yards (134) on Thursday. Darren Waller is considered week-to-week with a knee injury, which could force Derek Carr to learn on Renfrow (or Foster Moreau) even more.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Mike Williams resurgence lasted one game. He now has just one game with more than eight fantasy points over the last six games. Keenan Allen, however, continues to dominate. The savvy veteran only has two touchdowns on the year but is the WR9. He has 81 receptions on 116 targets through 11 games.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa is playing solid football right now. Jaylen Waddle is currently a WR1 (WR11 overall) yet seems to get no attention. The speedy rookie has even more potential than we’ve seen and could likely be acquired for below cost at this point.
Minnesota Vikings
Adam Thielen doesn’t care about touchdown regression. He has 10 scores on the year and both he and Justin Jefferson are top seven at the wide receiver position.
New York Giants
The Giants are talented on paper, but it doesn’t seem to translate to the field. It’s frustrating for fantasy managers who spent significant draft capital on guys like Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton or Kadarius Toney.
New York Jets
The Elijah Moore breakout campaign took a break in Week 12, but he still saw eight targets and has at least six targets per game over the last six weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Chase Claypool has topped 80 receiving yards in back-t0-back games. Diontae Johnson has at least 13 targets in three consecutive games. Pat Freiermuth has five touchdowns in his last five games. Those are all positives, but the team continues to struggle with Ben Roethlisberger under center.
Seattle Seahawks
Talking about offenses struggling and dragging down their stars, check out the Seahawks. I don’t know if it’s the finger or something else, but Russell Wilson has not looked good. DK Metcalf has been held under eight fantasy points for three straight weeks. Tyler Lockett has fared better, topping 95 receiving yards in three of his last four. You are still starting these wideouts each week based on their upside and week-winning abilities.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Antonio Brown has not played since Week 6 and is now expected to miss at least two more weeks. Fortunately for the Buccaneers, Rob Gronkowski has looked like his former, dominant self. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are both top-12 wide receivers in PPR formats.
Washington Football Team
Terry McLaurin has seven targets in all but one game (Week 1) and remains an every-week starter. Tight end Logan Thomas returned in Week 12 and almost had a touchdown. He should be back in the low-end TE1 discussion the rest of the way. Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic are both involved in the passing game as well.
