Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the Week 10 Usage Report. This piece is designed to give you a glimpse of both rushing shares and usage rates for running backs, wide receivers, and occasionally tight ends. It will help you understand how often a player is involved in his team’s game plan and if those players are susceptible to being faded or emphasized during various game scripts.
Each section will be broken into three tiers. Tier 1 will cover teams with situations in flux, Tier 2 will highlight teams with situations to monitor, and Tier 3 will list teams with stable situations.
(To see more, check out our Weekly Rushing Share and Usage by Situation pages.)
Definitions:
tgt_big_lead — Target share when team is leading by 14+ points
tgt_leading — Target share when team is leading by 9-13 points
tgt_one_score — Target share when team is in a one score game
tgt_down — Target share when team is down by 9-13 points
tgt_down_big — Target share when team is down by 14+ points
Weekly Rushing Share
Tier 1 — Situations in Flux
Arizona Cardinals
Weekly Rushing Share
Chase Edmonds suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 9 and is likely to miss multiple weeks. In his stead, Eno Benjamin saw a season-high usage rate out of the backfield and will see more involvement in the weeks to come. Finally, James Conner has been a league-winner based on his draft capital and has 11 total touchdowns this season. He also saw a season-high five targets this past weekend. If he adds the pass-catching aspect to his game, his weekly ceiling in RB1 overall.
Cleveland Browns
Weekly Rushing Share
Nick Chubb reportedly tested positive for COVID-19 and, as a vaccinated player, will need two negative tests 24 hours apart in order to play this weekend. Fellow running back Demetric Felton also tested positive. Kareem Hunt is still dealing with a calf injury. So D’Ernest Johnson would be in line for an expanded role if Chubb is unable to go. Johnson did have a successful Week 7 as the primary option.
Tier 2 — Situations Worth Monitoring
Carolina Panthers
Weekly Rushing Share
In his first appearance since Week 3, Christian McCaffrey touched the ball 18 times. He was unable to get much going on the ground but did accumulate 54 yards through the air. Chuba Hubbard only had four total touches, so it looks like this backfield once again belongs to McCaffrey. Hubbard may be worth stashing if you have the space in case McCaffrey suffers a setback.
Chicago Bears
Weekly Rushing Share
Similar to the Panthers, the Bears welcomed back their starting running back in Week 9. David Montgomery out-touched Khalil Herbert 15-4 and is set to retake control of this backfield moving forward. Like Hubbard, Herbert could be worth a bench spot in the wake of a setback for Montgomery.
Detroit Lions
Weekly Rushing Share
The Lions were on bye this week, which should afford Jamaal Williams the needed time to get healthy as he recovers from a thigh injury. However, he did not practice Wednesday. In his place, rookie Jermar Jefferson saw his first touches and scored his first touchdown and Godwin Igwebuike saw six total touches in Week 8.
Houston Texans
Weekly Rushing Share
This backfield remains a mess for fantasy. Phillip Lindsay appears to have the 1A role locked down, but both Rex Burkhead and David Johnson see weekly touches as well. After the departure of Mark Ingram a few weeks back, no one has stepped up to firmly control lead-back duties. Value can be found in this backfield, but it’s tough to identify which player to trust.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Weekly Rushing Share
Starting in place of the injured James Robinson, Carlos Hyde posted 22 inefficient touches. The Jaguars have shown a willingness to ride one running back and Hyde was the clear beneficiary of Robinson’s absence last weekend. Robinson did not practice Wednesday as he worked his way back from a heel injury.
Kansas City Chiefs
Weekly Rushing Share
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was designated to return from injured reserve Wednesday, which means the Chiefs have 21 days to activate him to the active roster. He has been out since Week 5 with a knee injury and Darrel Williams (along with Derrick Gore) have performed admirably in his stead. The Chiefs need a boost on offense, and Edwards-Helaire could be the catalyst to get this team back on track.
Las Vegas Raiders
Weekly Rushing Share
Josh Jacobs left his Week 7 matchup early with an injury, rested during his bye week, and returned this past weekend to post an efficient 17 touches for 95 yards. The Raiders appear comfortable riding whichever running back is healthy on a given week. As long as that healthy option is Jacobs, his volume warrants him a spot in your weekly lineups.
Miami Dolphins
Weekly Rushing Share
The backfield no one seemed to be able to figure out might have some clarity. Myles Gaskin saw his largest workload of the season in Week 9. He has topped a 50% rushing share in four of his last five matchups. Gaskin may not have been efficient on his 26 total touches last weekend, but he found the end zone to salvage his fantasy performance.
New England Patriots
Weekly Rushing Share
Damien Harris has at least 14 carries in seven games this season and has seven rushing touchdowns on the year. He’s been the one constant on this offense. However, both he and Rhamondre Stevenson missed practice Wednesday due to the league’s concussion protocol. Their status will have to be monitored heading into Week 10.
New Orleans Saints
Weekly Rushing Share
Mark Ingram has seen his usage increase over his first two weeks back with the Saints. The overall lack of weapons on this offense allows him even more weekly upside. Alvin Kamara is reportedly dealing with a knee sprain, but it is considered to be mild at this point. Still, it’s worth keeping a close eye on one of the most talented running backs in the league.
New York Giants
Weekly Rushing Share
Saquon Barkley has not played since Week 5 and is heading into his bye week this weekend. He was rumored to be close to returning last week so there’s some optimism around his return as soon as Week 11. In his stead, Devontae Booker has seen at least 12 carries and three targets in each of his last five performances. Booker remains a must-start based on volume alone until Barkley returns.
Philadelphia Eagles
Weekly Rushing Share
Jordan Howard and Boston Scott continue to operate as the RB1 and RB2 for the Eagles in place of the injured Miles Sanders. Notably, rookie Kenneth Gainwell has been relegated to the third option and has only seen meaningful work when the game is well in hand.
Seattle Seahawks
Weekly Rushing Share
Chris Carson has been dealing with a neck injury for several weeks but was designated to return from IR. There is a chance he plays this week but that remains to be seen. The team has a 21-day window to activate him to the active roster. Alex Collins should continue to see the bulk of the work if Carson is unable to go this week.
Tennessee Titans
Weekly Rushing Share
In their first game without Derrick Henry, the Titans turned to a combination of Adrian Peterson, Jeremy McNichols and D’Onta Foreman. Peterson could shoulder more of the load once he gets up to speed, but this backfield will likely remain a committee for the time being.
Washington Football Team
Weekly Rushing Share
Antonio Gibson has been dealing with a shin injury for several weeks and has not scored more than nine fantasy points since Week 5. He was on bye this past week but was still limited at practice on Wednesday of this week. Gibson also faces a stingy defense in Tampa Bay in Week 10, which only serves to further cloud his outlook.
Tier 3 — Stable Situations
Atlanta Falcons
Cordarrelle continues to be the do-it-all player on the field. It is worth noting Patterson had his second-lowest rushing share of the year in Week 9.
Baltimore Ravens
Devonta Freeman — RB1. Le’Veon Bell — RB2. Though to be fair, it’s really Lamar Jackson RB1.
Buffalo Bills
Week 9 was hopefully a blip in the grand scheme of the season for the Bills. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary continue to split time in the running game (pending Moss getting through concussion protocol).
Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon believers finally get the season they’ve been waiting for. He’s RB6 on the season.
Dallas Cowboys
The Tony Pollard breakout, much like the Javonte Williams breakout, isn’t going to happen this season. Ezekiel Elliott looks excellent both on the ground and through the air.
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams has an excellent trajectory in dynasty formats, but Melvin Gordon is still good at football. NFL teams don’t care about our fantasy teams, unfortunately.
Green Bay Packers
There may be questions at the quarterback position, but Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are quietly one of the better tandems in football. This team appears poised to win when the weather gets cold.
Indianapolis Colts
Dynasty RB1 Jonathan Taylor continues his illustrious season. Nyheim Hines is gamescript-dependent and only viable in PPR formats.
Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler is set to break career-marks in nearly every rushing, receiving and scoring category this season.
Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson continues to make the most of his opportunity to be a lead running back this season. Sony Michel is one of the most valuable handcuffs, aside from a player on the next team.
Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook is swirling in off-the-field news, but there are no reports of him being in danger of missing time on the field. When he’s healthy and active, he’s a bell cow. When Cook is not on the field, Alexander Mattison is the handcuff to roster in fantasy.
New York Jets
The Michael Carter takeover has been a pleasure to watch this season, and there’s no indication of it stopping anytime soon.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris takes the mantle of “bruising, every-down running” back without Derrick Henry on the field.
San Francisco 49ers
Elijah Mitchell continues to stick it to everyone who spent draft capital on Trey Sermon.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Leonard Fournette, much like Damien Harris and James Conner, has been one of the better draft values at the running back position this season.
Usage by Situation
Tier 1 — Situations in Flux
Arizona Cardinals
Usage by Situation
Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins missed Week 9 and both are questionable heading into this weekend. The team appears ready to be cautious with their star players, but the offense looked plenty potent in a dominant win over the 49ers a few days ago. The loss of Chase Edmonds for a few weeks opens up opportunities for additional players to step up.
Cleveland Browns
Usage by Situation
Odell Beckham is no longer with the Browns. The assortment of tight ends and intriguing wideout Donovan Peoples-Jones will have to shoulder the load alongside veteran Jarvis Landry. Peoples-Jones is a not-so-sneaky addition in dynasty formats.
Green Bay Packers
Usage by Situation
Aaron Rodgers missed Week 9 and his status for Week 10 remains up in the air, although Rodgers is confident he will play. The team missed their star quarterback in a road loss against the Chiefs, but the Packers are rumored to be in contention for the aforementioned Odell Beckham.
New York Jets
Usage by Situation
The quarterback carousel continues for the Jets, who announced they will be going back to Mike White this weekend. White wowed the NFL and fantasy spaces with a superb showing in Week 8 but was knocked out of the Week 9 contest early. Rookie Elijah Moore looks to be taking a step forward and the team is expected to get Corey Davis back this weekend.
Seattle Seahawks
Usage by Situation
Russell Wilson was a full participant at practice Wednesday and is set to return from his three-game absence due to a finger injury. Upgrade all wideouts for the Seahawks in Week 10.
Tier 2 — Situations worth Monitoring
Atlanta Falcons
Usage by Situation
The Falcons are now in the post-Calvin Ridley world, at least for the time being. A combination of Russell Gage and Tajae Sharpe figure to compete for targets alongside Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson.
Baltimore Ravens
Usage by Situation
The emergence of Rashod Bateman has been exciting to watch in recent weeks. The highly touted rookie has at least six targets in each of his first three games, although he operates as the No. 3 target behind Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews.
Chicago Bears
Justin Fields and Co. suffered a crushing defeat in what would have been an incredible road victory at Pittsburgh Monday night. Fields tossed a career-high 291 yards and a score while hitting his second-highest mark on the ground (45 yards). Darnell Mooney remains the No. 1 wideout for the rookie signal caller but there was a concerted effort to involve Allen Robinson early in Week 9.
Denver Broncos
Usage by Situation
The return of Jerry Jeudy has coincided with Courtland Sutton having his worst two-game stretch of the season. Jeudy should be locked into all lineups moving forward. Noah Fant was also activated from the Reserve/COVID-19 List and should be available this weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Usage by Situation
Surprise star Jamal Agnew cooled off in what turned into a defensive battle in Week 9. The Jaguars offense needs more consistency out of its playmakers and Dan Arnold has stepped up at tight end over the last few weeks.
Kansas City Chiefs
Usage by Situation
Something is wrong with this offense. I’m not sure if Patrick Mahomes is trying too hard to be a hero on each play but it’s hurting his teammates’ production and, less importantly, frustrating fantasy managers. Tyreek Hill is becoming a bit more boom/bust and Travis Kelce finally found the end zone this past weekend for the first time since Week 5.
Las Vegas Raiders
Usage by Situation
The departure of Henry Ruggs shifts the dynamic of this offense. Hunter Renfrow remains an underrated producer at the position and has at least five receptions in all but one game. Darren Waller continues to be one of the best at his position in all of football.
Miami Dolphins
Usage by Situation
DeVante Parker landed IR, while Will Fuller appears to be close to returning from his own stint. Fuller will not play Thursday night of Week 10. Jaylen Waddle is quietly putting together one of the best rookie seasons for a receiver in team history, and Mike Gesicki is starting to come into his own as a viable offensive weapon and fantasy producer.
New Orleans Saints
Usage by Situation
The Saints remain devoid of offensive talent, but they are rumored to be in the running to land Odell Beckham. Michael Thomas will not return this season, which leaves Alvin Kamara as the de facto RB1/WR1 for this team. It remains to be seen if Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill will be under center in Week 10, which only adds to the lack of confidence in this team.
New York Giants
Usage by Situation
Health continues to be a big question mark for this offense. The talent and ability are there for Daniel Jones continuity has been tough to come by. Kadarius Toney remains interesting in dynasty formats because of his athletic profile and draft capital.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Usage by Situation
Chase Claypool is week-to-week with a toe injury, and rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth continues to perform exceptionally well. Diontae Johnson should see even more targets if Claypool misses significant time and James Washington could finally get a real chance to produce.
San Francisco 49ers
Usage by Situation
Could we be seeing the return of Brandon Aiyuk? The beleaguered sophomore wideout posted his best game of the season in Week 9. Deebo Samuel remains one of the draft steals of the year and George Kittle returned from a three-game absence to top 100 yards and score a touchdown.
Tier 3 — Stable Situations
Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Emmnauel Sanders are all looking to bounce back following a tough Week 9 loss to the “other” Josh Allen.
Carolina Panthers
DJ Moore has elite upside, Robby Anderson does not. This team is in desperate need of a quarterback with Sam Darnold going on the shelf for a few weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will be a potent 1-2 punch at wide receiver for years to come under Joe Burrow. Buy Higgins in dynasty leagues if you can.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys should be getting back Michel Gallup soon, but they’ve been just fine with CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Dalton Schultz. Here’s to hoping Week 9 was not indicative of things to come.
Detroit Lions
Outside of T.J. Hockenson, this group of pass catchers has been consistently inconsistent. Someone needs to step up. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains interesting simply because of his rookie status and college production profile.
Houston Texans
Brandin Cooks. That is all.
Indianapolis Colts
Michael Pittman is establishing himself as a premier wide receiver right before our eyes, and it’s an incredible sight to behold. Zach Pascal is a priority waiver addition and has at least five targets in all but one game this season.
Los Angeles Chargers
Keenan Allen continues to produce week in and week out. Mike Williams has not topped five targets, two receptions, 60 yards or eight fantasy points in four of his last five games.
Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp WR1. Van Jefferson is a sneaky addition in all formats.
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson scored for the first time since Week 4, and Adam Thielen has never heard of touchdown regression. Also, Tyler Conklin has been low-key solid at tight end.
New England Patriots
Jakobi Meyers has still never scored a touchdown and Hunter Henry has five on the year (his career-high is eight).
Philadelphia Eagles
Rookie DeVonta Smith remains the only receiver you can start on this team and Dallas Goedert has worked his way back into the TE1 conversation.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers could be without Antonio Brown for at least another week as he works his way back from an ankle injury, although nothing has been confirmed. Chris Godwin missed practice Wednesday with a foot injury and will need to be monitored in the days ahead.
Tennessee Titans
A.J. Brown has 40 targets in his last four games and remains the focal point of this offense. Julio Jones made it through Week 9 without injury, which bodes well moving forward.
Washington Football Team
The Washington Football Team returns from its Week 9 bye this weekend. Terry McLaurin has at least seven targets in all but one game (Week 1) and is the lone pass-catcher you can start with confidence.
