Freedman’s Week 5 fantasy football breakdown

It’s Week 5. We’re past the point of introductions …

… checking contract …

On second thought, maybe I should write an introduction of … checking contract … between 50 and 1,000 words.

I’m not sure how many words I’ve written so far, but I think another sentence — one that’s way, way longer than it needs to be — ought to be sufficient to get me to the minimum mark.

And I can always write another sentence after that, just for good measure, if need be.

Alright.

That’s what I call an introduction.

More importantly, that’s what my lawyer calls an introduction.

In the main 12-game weekend slate, here are the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who stand out to me the most based on our expert rankings and fantasy projections as well as the Week 5 betting odds and our wealth of football content across FTN Fantasy, FTN Daily and FTN Bets.

Note: As NFL news breaks and Week 5 NFL inactives are announced on Sunday morning, my perspective on some players in this piece may change. For my most up-to-date thoughts on players, consult our rankings.

To see all my Week 5 bets, check out our FTN Bet Tracker. Use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription.

Freedman’s favorite quarterbacks for Week 5

Below, I take a look at my favorite quarterbacks for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 5.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (vs. San Francisco)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 2
• Spread: -5.5
• Total: 50

We’re one month into the season, and Kyler Murray is deservedly the MVP frontrunner at most sportsbooks.

Check out our Prop Shop to find the best value for any player or team in any market at any sportsbook. Murray offers the most value in the MVP market at Caesars and BetMGM, where he’s +500. 

With his league-leading 76.1% completion rate, Murray has passed for 1,273 yards and nine touchdowns to four interceptions. On top of that, Murray is an efficient 23-109-3 rushing. 

With his dual-threat ability, Murray is the No. 2 fantasy quarterback in the league — behind only Patrick Mahomes — with 28.5 DraftKings and 27.0 FanDuel points per game.

It’s not as if his top-tier performance this year is unexpected.

With his strong opening month to the season, Murray has recaptured the MVP-caliber form he owned last year before suffering a shoulder injury in Week 11.

Prior to that season-altering event, Murray was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in the league with 31.4 DraftKings and 30.2 FanDuel points per game (per our Splits Tool).

Check out all the premium stats and tools we offer in our industry-leading FantasyHQ product.

With their 4-0 record, the Cardinals have steadily climbed up our FTN Power Rankings, and I believe they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

Murray has a strong matchup against the 49ers, who are No. 7 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks with 24.1 DraftKings and 23.2 FanDuel points per game. Without No. 1 cornerback Jason Verrett (knee, IR), the 49ers are vulnerable in the secondary.

Under head coach Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals are 2-6 against the spread as home favorites — so that doesn’t inspire a superabundance of confidence in the team — but at home and as a favorite Murray is on the positive side of his notable splits.

• At home: 26.2 DraftKings points | 24.9 FanDuel points
• On road: 20.7 DraftKings points | 19.8 FanDuel points
• As favorites: 26.7 DraftKings points | 25.3 FanDuel points
• As underdogs: 21.4 DraftKings points | 20.5 FanDuel points

And in Murray’s eight games as a home favorite, he has averaged a scintillating 30.4 DraftKings and 29.0 FanDuel points.

This feels almost needless to say, but I expect that Murray will be one of the top quarterbacks in my Week 5 DFS Cheat Sheets.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants (at Dallas)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 15
• Spread: +7
• Total: 52

Daniel Jones is a top-eight fantasy quarterback with 24.5 DraftKings and 23.8 FanDuel points per game.

The Cowboys are top-four in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, with 28.5 DraftKings and 25.5 FanDuel points per game.

I don’t see the need to overthink this.

Wide receivers Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Darius Slayton (hamstring) both missed Week 4 and are out again for Week 5, but even in their absence Jones threw for 402 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 4, so it’s not a death knell.

I understand the desire not to play Jones in fantasy. After all, there’s a non-zero chance he’s not a good quarterback in reality. He fumbles seemingly all the time (32 fumbles in 31 career games), and he’s just No. 24 in the league with four touchdowns passing this year.

But he also has career-high marks with a 66.7% completion rate and 8.5 adjusted yards per attempt and an incredibly high floor with 27-188-2 rushing. In three of his four games this season, he has scored at least 20 fantasy points.

This game opened at Giants +7.5, but it has universally moved to +7 across the market — a positive indicator for the team — and Jones is on the positive side of his reverse ATS and fantasy splits on the road.

• On road: 11-4 ATS, +1.73 margin
• At home: 4-11 ATS, -4.97 margin
• On road: 21.2 DraftKings points | 19.7 FanDuel points
• At home: 15.3 DraftKings points | 14.5 FanDuel points

Jones was the No. 1 priority at quarterback in Vlad Sedler’s Week 5 FAAB strategy breakdown.

Much to my dismay, I’m betting on the Giants at +7.5 this week.

Upside quarterbacks for Week 5

Here are some quarterbacks I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Miami): Brady has an NFL-high 184 pass attempts and 119 completions and the league’s best wide receiver trio in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (at Carolina): The Panthers defense is No. 5 with a -8.7% pass DVOA (per Football Outsiders), but Hurts has averaged 27.1 DraftKings and 25.6 FanDuel points and either passed for 300 yards or rushed for 60 yards in each of his seven full NFL starts. With his Konami Code rushing ability, Hurts has an extraordinarily high floor, and with his four 300-yard passing performances he has an underappreciated ceiling.

Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers (vs. Philadelphia): Darnold has had three 300-yard passing games in each of the past three weeks, and — in the words of high-stakes dominator Nelson Sousa — “Darnold has somehow morphed into Cam Newton with all these rushing touchdowns.”

To get all of Sousa’s analysis, check out his high-stakes fantasy package, which comes with coaching sessions and Sousa’s rankings.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit): Cousins is a statistical bully who asserts his dominance over weak defenses. Last year, he was 42-of-60 passing for 625 yards, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions with 5-1-1 rushing in two games against the Lions defense, which this year ranks No. 32 with an 11.1 AY/A allowed.

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville): The over is 24-9-1 in Tannehill’s 34 Titans starts, and Jags head coach Urban Meyer has scandalously been grinding something other than game tape this past week — and that’s not likely to help a defense that is no. 32 with a 52.1% pass DVOA.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee): Lawrence is coming off the best game of his career (8.5 AY/A), the Jags — in theory — have had three extra days to prepare after playing Thursday, and the Titans just gifted fellow rookie quarterback Zach Wilson his best NFL performance (8.6 AY/A). Lawrence is one of our top Week 5 quarterback streamers.

Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona): Playing in relief of injured starter Jimmy Garoppolo (calf), Lance had 20.4 fantasy points on 157-2-0 passing and 7-41-0 rushing with just a 51% snap rate. With a full week to prepare and a game plan crafted for him, Lance has an underrated matchup against the Cardinals, who last year allowed a league-high 453 yards rushing to quarterbacks, in part because of their man defense. I am high on Lance this week.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (at Minnesota): Goff is No. 5 with 161 pass attempts, and the Vikings are No. 5 in highest AY/A allowed at 8.9. “Roast chicken?” In the words of Samwise Gamgee, “You never know.” 

Freedman’s favorite running backs for Week 5

Below, I take a look at my favorite running backs for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 5.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 1
• Spread: -4
• Total: 48.5

Henry was one of my highlighted running backs in the Week 4 fantasy football breakdown, and it’s not as if he did anything last week to disqualify him from the same honor this week.

Henry has a number of factors in his favor this weekend.

First, there’s the matchup. The Jaguars are No. 4 in most yards per play allowed with 6.4 and No. 5 in most carries allowed with 123. Ever since his career-altering Week 14 breakout against the Jags in 2018, Henry has made a habit of humiliating them in the most epic of fashions. In his past five games against the Jags (2018-20), Henry is 104-740-9 rushing and 4-25-0 receiving on seven targets. 

This is unconfirmed, but I’m pretty sure Henry’s favorite Def Leppard song is “Animal.”

Also, Henry is on the positive side of his splits with 21.5 DraftKings and 19.3 FanDuel points per game as a favorite since 2018.

Finally, the Titans might once again be without wide receivers A.J. Brown (hamstring) and Julio Jones (hamstring), both of whom missed Week 4 (Jones is already ruled out) — and in their absence Henry was heavily relied upon with 33 carries and two targets, which he leveraged into a magnificent 177 yards and a touchdown.

If Brown joins Jones on the sidelines and both are out again, Henry will likely see massive usage — and the Titans are already using Henry to the extreme this year, evidenced by his career-high marks with 28.3 carries and 3.8 targets per game. With that kind of workload, it’s no surprise that Henry leads the league with 635 yards from scrimmage.

Henry has 20-plus touches in every game and 30-plus touches in 3-of-4 games. That volume is beyond Herculean.

The only back in the league with at least 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns rushing in each of the past three full seasons, Henry is No. 1 in Jeff Ratcliffe’s Week 5 fantasy football flex rankings.

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals (vs. San Francisco) 

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 20
• Spread: -5.5
• Total: 50

Chase Edmonds is yet to score a touchdown. In fact, he has just one carry inside the 5-yard line, compared to five such carries for grinder James Conner and three for quarterback Kyler Murray (per our Advanced Rushing Stats Tool).

Even wide receiver Rondale Moore has a carry inside the 5.

Despite leading the entire team with 395 yards from scrimmage, Edmonds has seemingly been deprioritized near the goal line in a very intentional manner. Through four games, the team has had eight targets into the end zone (per our Advanced Receiving Stats Tool). Not one of them has gone to Edmonds.

But Edmonds has 10.8 carries and 5.5 targets per game, and he has been extremely efficient with his opportunities (5.9 yards per carry, 90.9% catch rate). Even without finding the end zone, Edmonds has had at least 10 fantasy points each week on DraftKings and FanDuel.

With his usage and efficiency, Edmonds at some point will score a touchdown — and why not this week? The 49ers aren’t a cakewalk, but they are top-12 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs with 26.5 DraftKings and 23.3 FanDuel points per game. They’re one of just six teams with 300 yards rushing and 200 yards receiving allowed to the position.

Just one long run or well-timed screen pass away from a big performance, Edmonds is someone to buy right now in dynasty and start as an upside RB2 in fantasy. 

Edmonds is a second-half breakout.

Edmonds (shoulder) is dealing with an injury and missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, so he’s far from certain to play this week — but if he suits up I think he should be played as usual. (If he doesn’t play, then change-of-pace grinder James Conner will be a must-start RB2.)

Upside running backs for Week 5

Here are some running backs I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (at Washington): Kamara hit a career-high in carries last week for the second game in a row. Of course, he also had zero targets: His 2021 usage has not been like that of previous seasons — but it’s impossible to complain about a guy getting 19.5 carries and 3.5 targets per game. 

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Cleveland): The Browns defense is No. 1 with a -44.0% rush DVOA — but Ekeler is the No. 2 fantasy back with 22.4 DraftKings and 19.4 FanDuel points per game. He has 15-plus touches in every game, and the Chargers put up more points on offense given that they are top-five in average yards from own goal.

Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (at Dallas): Barkley was a Week 4 DFS winner with 13-52-1 rushing and 5-74-1 receiving on six targets, and this week he faces the Cowboys, who are No. 3 in most yards allowed per play at 6.4. Barkley is one of our top Week 5 SuperDraft plays.

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (vs. NY Giants): After his Week 1 no-show against the Bucs, who are No. 1 in the league with just 2.7 yards allowed per carry, Elliott is a triumphant 53-309-4 rushing and 5-47-0 receiving on six targets. Elliott last week was a “good process, good outcome” play in single-entry DFS tournaments, and — against all odds — the Cowboys are the league’s last 4-0 ATS team.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Denver): The Broncos have held running backs to a league-low 10.2 DraftKings and 8.9 FanDuel points per game, but Harris leads all running backs in high-value touches. He has 15-plus touches in every game.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (at Los Angeles Chargers): The Chargers have a back-friendly funnel defense that ranks No. 4 against the pass (-9.0% DVOA) but No. 25 (-3.5% DVOA) against the rush — and it’s not as if the Browns need any extra incentive to run the ball. Chubb has just a 3% share of targets and only a 40% share of team carries inside the five-yard line, but he still has 388 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage. The Browns are underdogs, but I still expect them to run the ball heavily, and underdogs are a dominant 38-26 ATS this year.

D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (at Minnesota): Even as a timeshare back on an 0-4 team, Swift still has 338 yards and two touchdowns on 41 carries and 29 targets, and he could see more high-value targets this week with a pass-leaning game script as a big road underdog. Swift is top-12 with 2.9 yards before contact per attempt.

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee): As the clear lead back for the Jags over the past three weeks, Robinson is 44-213-3 rushing and 10-61-0 receiving on 11 targets, and last week he had a 95% snap rate. The Titans 

Damien Williams, Chicago Bears (at Las Vegas): Williams could go off with starter David Montgomery (knee) sidelined. In his 15 games as the lead back with the Chiefs in 2018-19 (minimum of 30 snaps played), he averaged 23.0 DraftKings and 19.7 FanDuel points per game. Williams was the No. 1 player in Jeff Ratcliffe’s Week 5 waiver wire rankings.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots (at Houston): Harris had -4 yards rushing last week on just four carries, but he had a tough matchup against the Bucs and at least had a career-high 18 routes without teammate James White (hip, IR). Harris is a buy-low trade target, and he could see extra work this week as a significant road favorite.

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit): Starter Dalvin Cook (ankle) missed practice Wednesday after sitting out most of the second half of Week 4, so there’s a chance he’ll be inactive for Week 5. In relief of Cook in Week 3, Mattison was 26-112-0 rushing and 6-59-0 receiving on eight targets, and in his three games with 15-plus carries he has averaged 129 yards and 0.67 touchdowns from scrimmage. Whoever starts for the Vikings, he will have a good matchup: The Lions defense is No. 30 with a 5.1% rush DVOA and No. 32 with a 118.9% pass DVOA against running backs.

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Miami): Fournette was 20-91-0 rushing and 3-47-0 receiving on five targets last week. Giovani Bernard (knee) is uncertain to play after missing Week 4, and Ronald Jones hasn’t had more than six carries in a game. If Bernard is out, Fournette could have a large workload as a home favorite. Fournette is one of our top Week 5 DFS value plays.

Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona): If starter Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) misses his third straight game, then Sermon will likely serve as the lead back once again after his 19-89-0 rushing performance last week. Under head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 15-9 ATS as road underdogs.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (at Pittsburgh): Although he has been outproduced by veteran Melvin Gordon (335 yards vs. 236), Williams has still averaged 11.5 carries and 2.3 targets per game. Without starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (concussion), the Broncos could lean on their running backs on the road.

Samaje Perine, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Green Bay): Starter Joe Mixon (ankle) seems likely to miss Week 5, in which case Perine would likely draw the start against the Packers defense, which ranks No. 27 with a -1.2% rush DVOA. In Mixon’s absence last year, Perine was 36-192-2 rushing and 6-50-0 receiving on six targets in the final four games.

Freedman’s favorite wide receivers for Week 5

Below, I take a look at my favorite wide receivers for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 5.

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers (at Cincinnati)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 1
• Spread: -3
• Total: 50

Everyone knows that Davante Adams is good. But I doubt people appreciate just how good he is.

In the 2016-20 half-decade timeframe, Adams averaged 1,127.8 yards and 11.6 touchdowns receiving on 91.6 receptions and 136.6 targets in 14.2 games per year. For that five-year period, Adams was the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 20.3 DraftKings and 16.1 FanDuel points per game (min. 12 games per year).

In the words of Led Zeppelin, “When mountains crumble to the sea, there will still be you and me and Adams.” 

Despite a terrifying 38-3 Week 1 road loss to the Saints that had everyone questioning everything they thought they knew about the Packers, Adams has more or less been his typical self in 2021: He’s No. 1 in receptions (31), No. 2 in targets (46), and No. 5 in yards (373). 

And if we remove Week 1 from consideration, he’s No. 1 in receptions (26) and targets (37) and just six yards shy of No. 1 in yards (317).

Adams is the No. 1 wide receiver in Tyler Loechner’s fantasy trade value chart.

He has just one touchdown on the year — but getting touchdowns has never been a problem for Adams. Where there are targets, receptions, and yards, the touchdowns will follow.

I’m betting on the Packers at -3. Since their burn-the-tape performance in Week 1, the Packers are 3-0 ATS. 

The Bengals are No. 5 with 6.1 AY/A allowed — but I don’t think that number is representative of who they really are in pass defense. In Week 1, Kirk Cousins on the road passed for 351 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions against them. And then in Weeks 2-4 they played against quarterbacks Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Ben Roethlisberger, and Trevor Lawrence.

Their defensive numbers are artificially inflated.

On top of that, the Bengals are dealing with injuries in their secondary: No. 1 cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (groin) missed Week 4 and has been limited in practice this week. Additionally, No. 2 cornerback Trae Waynes (hamstring), who missed Weeks 1-3, was downgraded to limited on Thursday after practicing in full on Wednesday — and mid-week downgrades are almost never a good sign.

If either Awuzie or Waynes is inactive, Adams will have a slate-best matchup against backup cornerback Eli Apple (per our WR/CB Matchups Tool). 

Adams is the No. 1 wide receiver in Kyle Murray’s DFS Model, and he has the highest ceiling projection among all wide receivers in our new state-of-the-art optimizer.

Do we have room for more links?

Adams leads all wide receivers with 87.3 expected fantasy points, and he’s slated to be the main slate’s most popular player (per our NFL Exposure Projections).

Adams is a Week 5 slate breaker.

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Green Bay) 

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 16
• Spread: +3
• Total: 50

Among all players with at least 20 targets, Ja’Marr Chase is No. 3 with 11.9 yards per target, trailing only Tyler Lockett (13.3) and barely Tyreek Hill (11.9).

When you add on top of that the fact that Chase is tied for No. 2 in the league with four touchdowns receiving, it puts his rookie campaign in perspective: Chase is absolutely balling out.

Through the first month, he’s a top-12 fantasy receiver with 18.4 DraftKings and 15.5 FanDuel points per game.

In every game, Chase has either a touchdown or 70 yards receiving.

Teammate Tee Higgins (shoulder) has returned to limited practice and is likely to suit up after missing Weeks 3-4, so he might cut into Chase’s market share: We shouldn’t expect Chase to see a career-high nine targets for the second game in a row this week.

But the Packers will probably be without No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder), and in his absence Chase could go off against rookie backup Eric Stokes, who allowed 82 yards on 15 targets last week. 

And without running back Joe Mixon (ankle), the Bengals might rely on the passing game more than they did in Weeks 1-3. 

Coming off Thursday Night Football and blessed with three extra days to rest and prepare, Chase should continue to produce.

Upside wide receivers for Week 5

Here are some wide receivers I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit): Coming off an all-time great 1,400-yard rookie campaign, Jefferson is a strong 26-338-3 receiving on 37 targets. Jefferson has an upgraded matchup against the Lions defense, which is No. 30 with a 36.5% pass DVOA.

DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers (vs. Philadelphia): Moore is the only wide receiver in the league to have more than 1,200 yards from scrimmage in each of the two previous seasons, and he already has 417 yards this year. Moore is absolutely dominating with 10.8 targets per game, and he has a strong matchup against cornerback Steven Nelson, who this year has allowed a 72.2% catch rate and 10.0 yards per target in his coverage.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (vs. New Orleans): McLaurin had a league-high 217 air yards in Week 4 (per our free Air Yards Tool), and this year he has exhibited a high floor/ceiling combination with 60-plus yards in each game and two 100-yard performances with a touchdown. Through four games, McLaurin has an elite 98.4% snap rate.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona): Samuel is No. 1 in the league with 490 yards receiving, and he has had eight-plus targets every game. Although they are +5.5 road underdogs, I’m betting on the 49ers: Head coach Kyle Shanahan is 15-9 ATS as a road dog. 

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Cleveland): Allen doesn’t have the sexy statistics of teammate Mike Williams (306 yards, four touchdowns vs. 294 yards, one touchdown), but he has an incredibly and consistently high floor with eight-plus targets in every game and 10-plus targets in three of four games. Allen is one of our top Week 5 FanDuel DFS plays.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Miami): Godwin is well outside the top 20 with only 30 targets, but he has been efficient with his opportunities (9.9 yards per target, three total touchdowns). He could capture extra market share this week if the Bucs are without tight end Rob Gronkowski (ribs) and running back Giovani Bernard (knee) and if the Dolphins are able to challenge teammates Mike Evans and Antonio Brown with perimeter cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. Godwin is one of David Jones’ “Tenacious Targets” for DFS tournaments.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (vs. NY Giants): Lamb is just 5-79-0 receiving on eight targets over the past two weeks, but that simply makes him one of our favorite buy-low candidates. In his nine career games with quarterback Dak Prescott, Lamb has averaged 79 yards on 8.2 targets. Lamb is one of Vlad Sedler’s top Week SuperDraft plays.

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys (vs. NY Giants): The Cowboys are No. 1 in our NFL Stacking Model, and they are the only 4-0 ATS team in the league. Cooper is slated for a tough matchup with cornerback James Bradberry, but he’s also in his personal smash spot: As a home favorite with the Cowboys, Cooper has averaged 20.9 DraftKings and 18.5 FanDuel plays per game.

Odell Beckham, Cleveland Browns (at Los Angeles Chargers): In his two games this year, Beckham is No. 2 — behind only Davante Adams — with 293 air yards on 16 targets. At some point quarterback Baker Mayfield will connect on one of his long attempts to Beckham, who is one of our top Week 5 Yahoo DFS plays.

Marvin Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee): Teammate D.J. Chark (ankle, IR) is out, so Jones should build upon his team-high totals of 31 targets, 20 receptions, 218 yards, and two touchdowns. The Titans are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers with 52.8 DraftKings and 43.7 FanDuel points per game. Jones is one of Chris Meaney’s top Week 5 DFS plays.

Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots (at Houston): Meyers is No. 8 in the league with 41 targets, and he easily leads the team with 27 receptions and 246 yards receiving. He’s destined to get his first NFL touchdown one of these weeks.

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (vs. Baltimore): Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) returned to practice Thursday, so he has a shot to return to action this weekend. The sample is small, but in his two full games with Bridgewater and without teammate Jerry Jeudy (ankle, IR), Sutton is 14-196-0 receiving on 17 targets. 

Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Miami): Brown is a part-time player, seeing just 51% of the offensive snaps last week — but he also had 11 targets and has been efficient this year with his opportunities (9.6 yards per target). Brown has an incredibly wide range of outcomes with 100-yard, multi-touchdown upside and scoreless 10-yard downside.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins (at Tampa Bay): Waddle’s Week 4 usage was incredibly frustrating (four targets, only one target after the first quarter), but he still has 23 targets from backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett over the past three weeks. The Buccaneers will definitely be without cornerback Carlton Davis (quad, IR) and maybe cornerbacks Jamel Dean (knee), Sean Murphy-Bunting (elbow, IR) and safety Antoine Winfield (concussion) and have allowed a league-high 56.1 DraftKings and 44.0 FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.

Laviska Shenault., Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee): After teammate D.J. Chark (ankle, IR) exited Week 4 early with a season-ending injury, Shenault led the Jags with seven targets, six receptions, and 99 yards receiving. He could have an expanded role moving forward in Chark’s absence and is slated for an advantageous matchup against second-year seventh-round slot cornerback Chris Jackson, who has allowed an 88.9% catch rate with 9.0 yards per target. Shenault is one of Chris Meaney’s Week 5 starts (sponsored by TopProp).

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Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears (at Las Vegas): Mooney was the apple of quarterback Justin Fields’ downfield eye last week, going off for 5-125-0 receiving in a good matchup. He has a decent floor with 7-8 targets in 3-of-4 games, and he leads the team with 17 receptions and 226 yards. Gilles Gallant is betting over 4.5 receptions for Mooney, who is one of our top Week 5 deep sleepers.

Kadarius Toney, New York Giants (at Dallas): Last week Toney was 6-78-0 receiving on nine targets without wide receivers Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Darius Slayton (hamstring), and both are out again this week. Toney was one of Nelson Sousa’s top Week 5 waiver priorities, and the Cowboys are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers with 48.3 DraftKings and 37.7 FanDuel points per game.

K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit): Osborn has 6-plus targets in 3-of-4 games, and he has a strong matchup against undrafted rookie slot cornerback A.J. Parker, who has allowed an 83.3% catch rate and 11.7 yards per target with two touchdowns.

Curtis Samuel, Washington Football Team (vs. New Orleans): Samuel played just 25 snaps and had only 19 yards last week in his 2021 debut, but he did convert all four of his targets into receptions in limited action, and he should see more snaps and targets this week without wide receiver Dyami Brown (knee) and tight end Logan Thomas (hamstring, IR). FTN is high on Samuel relative to the consensus. 

Freedman’s favorite tight ends for Week 5

Below, I take a look at my favorite tight ends for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 5.

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Chicago)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 2
• Spread: -5.5
• Total: 44.5

In my opinion, Derek Brown’s game-by-game DFS breakdown is an industry-best piece.

Here’s what he says about Darren Waller in his Raiders-Bears section:

“Waller is a main cog in the passing game with his 24% target share, role in the deep passing game, 50% end zone target share, and 40% red-zone target share. The Bears ranked 19th in DVOA against the tight end position last year. They allowed the sixth-most receiving yards (932) and third-most receiving touchdowns (12) to the position. This year they held T.J. Hockenson to four receptions (eight targets) and 42 scoreless yards, but Tyler Higbee had five grabs (six targets) and 68 receiving yards. Waller is easily the most talented tight end they have faced yet in 2021.”

The Bears defense is No. 10 with a -18.7% pass DVOA against tight ends, so the matchup isn’t advantageous — but with Waller matchups are almost irrelevant, because he’s just that good.

Last year, Waller — not Travis Kelce — was the No. 1 tight end with 1,309 air yards, 579 yards after the catch, a 28.6% target share, and a 61.4% WOPR.

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight. It combines market shares of targets and air yards.

Last year, Waller was No. 2 overall with a 34.3% market share of first-read targets, right alongside the top wide receivers in the league, and this year he’s No. 6 overall and the No. 1 tight end with 35 first-read targets.

With his elite usage, Waller is the No. 1 tight end with 67.4 expected fantasy points. He has an incredibly high ceiling with his career mark of 8.4 yards per target, and he has a strong floor with seven-plus targets and 50-plus yards receiving in every game.

Waller is one of Javier Prellezo’s “Must Jav” Week 5 NFL DFS plays.

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Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (at Houston)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

• FTN Ranking: No. 13
• Spread: -9
• Total: 39.5

I wish I could find something sexier to say about Hunter Henry — but he’s a high-floor option with his 3-5 receptions and 30-45 yards in each game.

With Henry, you have a good sense of what you’ll get. You almost certainly won’t get zero fantasy points — and you might get a touchdown.

And this week he also has a decent ceiling. The Patriots are significant favorites and should have multiple redzone opportunities as an offense, and the Texans are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends with 19.4 DraftKings and 16.1 FanDuel points per game.

Of the Texans’ six receiving touchdowns allowed this year, five have been forfeited by safeties and linebackers — and three have been scored by tight ends.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Henry probably has underappreciated upside this week.

Upside tight ends for Week 5

Here are some tight ends I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (at Arizona): Kittle is No. 4 at the position with 7.2 targets and 56.8 yards receiving per game this year, and he’s yet to score a touchdown. He’s no longer in the same tier with Travis Kelce and Darren Waller — but he’s a great bringback partner in full-game stacks with the Cardinals.

T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (at Minnesota): Despite his two-target Week 3 fart festival, Hockenson still leads the Lions with 30 targets, 215 yards receiving, and two touchdowns. He has eight-plus targets in 3-of-4 games, and the Vikings are No. 27 with a 30.4% pass DVOA against tight ends. 

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (at Pittsburgh): Fant is No. 1 on the Broncos with 18 receptions and No. 2 with 27 targets, and he’s in line to benefit from the absence of wide receivers Jerry Jeudy (ankle, IR) and K.J. Hamler (knee, IR) as well as the possible return of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (concussion).

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (vs. NY Giants): With his usage, Schultz is an every-week starter. He has six-plus targets in 3-of-4 games and is top-three on the team with 23 targets, 20 receptions, 201 yards receiving, and three touchdowns. The Cowboys have a slate-high implied total of 29.5 points.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins (at Tampa Bay): The Buccaneers will likely be without strong safety Antoine Winfield, and Gesicki over the past three weeks is 18-184-1 receiving on 24 targets from backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. 

Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings (vs. Detroit): Since Week 14 last year (when then-starter Kyle Rudolph missed the end of the season), Conklin has averaged four receptions, 39 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns on 5.4 targets per game. The Lions are No. 32 with a 96.7% pass DVOA against tight ends.

Evan Engram, New York Giants (at Dallas): Engram has six targets in both of his games this year, and he could see more usage this week without wide receivers Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Darius Slayton (hamstring), both of whom missed last week and are yet to return to practice. We expect that Engram will be chalky in single-entry DFS tournaments.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (at Las Vegas): Kmet has a snap rate of 97% over the past two weeks. The Raiders let Jared Cook go off with 6-70-1 receiving on seven targets last week and Mike Gesicki with 10-86-0 receiving on 12 targets the week before that. Kmet is streamable.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team (vs. Saints): Starter Logan Thomas (hamstring, IR) is out, and in his place Seals-Jones played 93% of the snaps last week and earned four targets. As my old pappy used to say, “That ain’t nothing.”