Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Finding the best anchors for your DFS lineup is the best way to start lineup construction, so each week in this space, I’ll be taking a look at a skill-position breakdown of players who stick out on FanDuel. Whether it’s because of matchup or usage or anything else, these are players who should feature heavily in lineups.
Quarterbacks | FanDuel Week 5 picks
Ignore Justin Herbert at your own risk
($7,700, vs. Cleveland Browns)
While Kyler Murray has been incredible through four games, second-year man Justin Herbert has been a beast as well. He’s tossed for at least 280 yards in each of his first four games, and the Chargers are a scoring juggernaut — they’ve posted 58 points in their last two games combined. Vegas seems to think this could be a shootout — the over/under sits at 49.5 points.
Check out the FTN Fantasy points allowed tool to see how teams allowed points to opposing positions.
Daniel Jones has been ballin’ out
($7,400, at Cowboys)
In a stunning upset, the Giants stormed back down 11 points in Week 4 to beat the Saints. One thing that has gone a bit unnoticed is how good Daniel Jones has been — he’s averaging just under 300 passing yards per game (296, to be exact), and he gives you that Konami-code upside averaging 47 yards per game on the ground. As 7.5-point underdogs right now, Jones could be airing out and be a massive stud from a DFS perspective.
Check out the FTN pace tool.
Running back | FanDuel Week 5 picks
Aaron Jones is a DFS stud
($8,400, at Cincinnati Bengals)
This could turn into a very fun, contrarian play this week — the Pittsburgh front seven is very stingy on the ground, so there’s not really a large cause for concern after Jones only rushed 15 times for 48 yards. Jones was still a difference maker in the passing game, grabbing three passes for 51 yards. The Bengals rank as the second-worst defense in the NFL, and while Cincinnati is improved on the ground, they could get torn up this week.
Najee Harris is the man in Pittsburgh
($7,300, vs. Denver Broncos)
Let’s discuss the elephant in the room right off the bat — Ben Roethlisberger is not an NFL quarterback anymore. His mobility is extremely limited, and the guy is clearly struggling. That’s not great for Najee Harris, but the man is the undisputed guy in this backfield. He’s got 20 catches — that’s right, twenty — in the last two games on 26 targets. He’s not only a running threat, but a receiving one as well, and he has to be rostered in all spaces.
Wide receiver | FanDuel Week 5 picks
Keenan Allen is the man
($7,200, vs. Cleveland Browns)
If we believe in Justin Herbert, it makes logical sense that we should believe in his top target. On the season, despite the significant emergence of Mike Williams in this offense, Keenan Allen by far deserves the most respect — he has a 27.3% target market share, and he’s a pretty affordable top-flight option. I like him a lot on this week’s slate.
A big week could be looming for OBJ
($6,400, at Los Angeles Chargers)
This title could have easily been something along the lines of “what could have been.” Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham just missed on a 70-yard bomb for a touchdown Sunday, and the narrative certainly would have changed had they been able to conn that toss. Since Beckham has come back from the injury, he’s clearly been a focal point of the offense — he’s logged a 26.7% target market share, and with what could be a nice up-tempo contest, he seems far too cheap.
Tight end | FanDuel Week 5 picks
Go back to Darren Waller
($7,400, vs. Chicago Bears)
After an absurd 19-target effort in Week 1, I really hope that no one thought Darren Waller was going to see this kind of volume the rest of the way. And honestly, there are some peculiarities here — Waller didn’t even see his first target Monday until the second quarter. He did, however, make a monster TD catch in third quarter of that contest, and the Bears rank in the middle of the pack against the pass. Roster him with confidence, especially with Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce in standalone slates.
