WR/CB matchups for fantasy football

Fantasy football is all about the matchups, especially when it comes to WR vs. CB. Remember when fantasy matchup analysis used to be “Team A gives up the most fantasy points to wide receivers”? Well, we’ve moved from analog to digital and now look at matchups on an individual level.

Each week, I dig through the FTN Data to identify the actual coverage tendencies for all 32 NFL teams and compile this information in the WR/CB Matchups Tool. The information is then distilled down to give you the biggest upgrades and downgrades this week.

Before we get into this week’s information, we should note a few things about shadow coverage. For starters, shadow coverage is relatively rare in the NFL. In fact, so teams don’t use it at all and instead just let their corners play their sides. We track all shadow situations in our Shadow Index.

A shadow situation occurs when a corner travels with a wide receiver around the formation. Shadows can occur for an entire game or only part of the contest. A shadow situation do not mean the corner is on the receiver 100% of the time. This isn’t backyard football. Receivers move around and occasionally will avoid the shadow. Also, a shadow situation is not always a bad thing for receivers. If the corner is not particular good, the receiver could actually benefit from the shadow.

Matchup Upgrades | Week 5 W/CB Matchups

Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders vs. Kansas City

This one sets up very well for the Bills pass catchers. Stefon Diggs especially offers explosive upside here. He has seen nine deep ball targets, which ties him for the second most in the league this season. While Diggs has only converted three for catches, those are high-value targets. He should have no problem getting his hands on the football against Mike Hughes. Opposing receivers have caught 17-of-21 catchable targets against Hughes with three of those receptions going for scores. In the slot, Chiefs corner L’Jarius Sneed has managed tight coverage on just 20% of his targeted routes. That means Cole Beasley should be open early and often.

Deebo Samuel vs. Arizona

Sure, he scored on busted coverage last week, but that doesn’t take anything away from how well Deebo Samuel has been playing this season. He’s caught 80% of his catchable targets and has been a YAC monster with 17.5 yards per catch despite a modest 7.9-yard average depth of target. Samuel should have his way against the Cardinals’ outside corners, especially Marco Wilson. Receivers have caught 19-of-20 catchable targets against Wilson.

Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson vs. Detroit

Last week was a rough one all around for the Vikings’ offense, but they get a much softer matchup against Detroit. Detroit CB Bobby Price has seen a massive 393 air yards thrown into his coverage this season equating to an enormous 21.8-yard aDOT. Justin Jefferson figures to see a tick more of Price than Adam Thielen and also has the edge in aDOT with 11.9 yards compared to 9.8 for Thielen. Jefferson also has at least a step of separation on 89% of his targeted routes. Thielen also offers plenty of appeal as Amani Oruwariye has allowed an 86% catch rate on catchable targets.

Other Matchup Upgrades

Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault vs. Tennessee – With D.J. Chark out, these two will handle the bulk of the targets. Jones should have no problem on the outside against Janoris Jenkins, who has allowed 15 catches on 16 catchable targets. Shenault should have no problem getting open against an inexperienced Chris Jackson, who has yet to be in tight coverage on any of his targeted routes this season.
Cooper Kupp vs. Seattle – He’s coming off a down week, but Kupp gets back to his productive ways Thursday night. Opposing receivers have had at least a step of separation on 78% of routes against Ugo Amadi in the slot.
Marquise Brown vs. Indianapolis – Brown has been getting open at will this season with at least one step of separation on 89% of his targeted routes. He screams upside with Xavier Rhodes on the other side of the field. The veteran has allowed 20.1 yards per catch in his coverage this season.
Ja’Marr Chase vs. Green Bay – Ordinarily, the Packers would not be a good matchup, especially for Chase on the outside. But Jaire Alexander is dealing with a sprained AC joint and looks unlikely for this one. We should see Kevin King back this week. The veteran corner is seeing a massive 16.8 aDOT with 20.6 yards per catch allowed.
Hunter Renfrow vs. Chicago – You can attack the Bears out of the slot, so expect to see plenty of Renfrow this week. Duke Shelly has allowed 14 receptions on 15 catchable targets with opposing wideouts getting at least one step of separation on 87% of his targeted routes covered.
Jaylen Waddle vs. Tampa Bay – While Ross Cockrell isn’t as exploitable as we initially thought, the Tampa corner has only had tight coverage on 15% of his targeted routes covered. He’s going to have his hands full with the shifty and speedy Waddle.
Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder vs. Atlanta – The London game offers another opportunity for this duo to shine. Fabian Moreau has already allowed three scores in his coverage, which is good for Davis. As for Crowder, he got back on the field last week and managed to get at least a step of separation on eight of his nine targeted routes.

Matchup Downgrades | Week 5 W/CB Matchups

DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett vs. LA Rams

Let’s be clear here: Jalen Ramsey has not been shadowing in 2021. He plays on the outside in the base defense and kicks to the slot when they go to their subpackages with David Long on the outside. It’s unlikely that changes this week, which means no shadow for DK Metcalf. Of course, this is still a tough matchup. Metcalf has been in the slot on 20% of his routes this season, so he will see his share of Ramsey, but it’s not like he’ll have a break on the outside. Darious Williams has kept things in front of him with just 8.8 yards per catch.

Brandin Cooks vs. J.C. Jackson (expected shadow)

Brandin Cooks has been impressive this season, boasting 39 targets at a healthy average depth of 15.1 yards. He’s also made eight contested catches on 13 opportunities. But he’s also the only show in town for the Texans and will almost certainly get the star treatment with a shadow from Jackson. With Stephon Gilmore officially out of the mix, Jackson is the de facto top corner in New England. While he hasn’t necessarily been a shutdown option, he does have three picks and two pass breakups and is holding opposing wideouts to a 62% catch rate.

Other Matchup Downgrades

Terry McLaurin vs. Marshon Lattimore (expected shadow) – Lattimore may have struggled in 2020, but he’s been very tough this season. Receivers have seen tight coverage from Lattimore on 33% of his targeted routes, so getting open hasn’t been easy. We can also expect him to travel with McLaurin this week.
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Denver – Smith-Schuster is banged up along with Ben Roethlisberger. He also has to face Bryce Callahan, who has five pass breakups on 12 targets. That’s a massive 42% plays on ball.
Michael Pitman vs. Baltimore – We have another downgrade for Pittman this week with Marlon Humphrey on the other side of the ball. Humphrey is allowing just a 52% catch rate on the season.
Mike Evans and Antonio Brown vs. Miami – Expect man coverage from the Dolphins this weekend with Evans drawing Xavien Howard and Byron Jones on Brown. Howard has been a monster this season with just nine catches allowed on 14 catchable targets. Jones has excelled in contested situations allowed only 5-of-10 contested targets to be caught.
Amari Cooper vs. James Bradberry (expected shadow) – There are a couple of things working against us here, as not only is Cooper likely to draw a shadow from Bradberry, but he’s also nursing a hamstring injury. To be fair, Bradberry has allowed a hefty 21 catches on the season, but he’s averaging just 9.6 air yards per target. That low number means limited upside for receivers in his coverage.