SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 5

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 4 Recap

Each week, I’ll kick things off reviewing the winning lineup of SuperDraft’s largest GPPs. 

The Red Zone is a $20 entry contest with 14,375 entries and a $50,000 grand prize (150 lineup max).

The Gunslinger is a $100 entry contest with 233 entries and a $5,000 grand prize (seven entries max).

Well, we probably shouldn’t be surprised to see that our very own 3x Milly Maker winner, TwoGun, took down the $50,000 in the Red Zone. The most impressive part is he did not 150-max it, he just threw in a few lineups. My daughter was born over the weekend, so I threw in a single lineup but am kicking myself for not taking my own Philadelphia/Kansas City stack recommendation from last week’s article of Jalen Hurts/DeVonta Smith/Tyreek Hill. We’re often guilty of “galaxy brain” when making lineups when we could have just applied Occam’s Razor and did what TwoGun did with that straightforward stack that included the squeaky wheel of KC’s Hill that was two weeks’ delayed from being greased. 

TwoGun hit on two chalky plays (Najee Harris, DJ Moore) that were both over 30% and hit paydirt with Saquon Barkley at a super-low roster rate with some overtime magic. The key to his lineup was Cordarrelle Patterson, who scored three touchdowns, which meant it made no difference that his teammate Kyle Pitts didn’t do much. The Atlanta Falcons are playing the New York Jets in London Sunday morning, so they’ll be off our main slate. 

Once again, taking down the $100-entry Gunslinger required a much lower total score – in this case, more than 40 fewer fantasy points. The winner had that massive outing from my top QB recommendation last week – Sam Darnold – on the heels of a couple of TD runs and a garbage time touchdown connection with DJ Moore. The average roster percentage for the Gunslinger winner (21.5%) was significantly higher than that of TwoGun’s Red Zone winner (14.8%) while both average multipliers landed once again in that sweet spot of 1.4 to 1.5x.

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Quarterbacks

There are plenty of solid options, and with many of the studs (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson) off the main slate, expect to see roster percentage spread out with no super chalky QBs, with the possible exception of 49ers rookie Trey Lance if he gets the nod Sunday. 

Cash — Dak Prescott, Daniel Jones

Dak Prescott’s multiplier makes him a difficult guy to click on with so many viable options in the 1.3-1.7x range. This Cowboys/Giants matchup has the slate’s highest total (52 points). If the Giants can keep pace, Dak could be a slate breaker and the top-scoring signal-caller. I’d be more worried about the potency of this two-headed running back duo of (Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard) who could find the end zone themselves and keep Prescott from his potential ceiling. On the other side, Daniel Jones has averaged 23.3 base SD points and if he matches or exceeds this average, we’re looking at someone with the potential to be the slate’s highest-scoring QB. Jones has a bit of a rushing floor, averaging nearly seven carries per game and should be a relatively safe cash game and single-entry play.

GPP – Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, Trey Lance

The rookie Trevor Lawrence is about as risky as they come, so he is GPP only as this could very well be a slow-paced outing featuring two solid runners (Derrick Henry, James Robinson). Jacksonville operated at the league’s top passing rate in neutral situations but dropped off over their last two games. Lawrence also hasn’t been very accurate with seven interceptions to just five touchdown passes so far. At the multiplier and paired with Laviska Shenault (1.6x) or Marvin Jones (1.5x), there is a potential of this one being a high scoring stack with Lawrence’s high multiplier. The Titans’ A.J. Brown should return to help this from being a total snoozefest and Jacksonville’s offensive line (12th ranked) has a clear advantage over Tennessee’s defensive line (22nd). 

Kirk Cousins is my favorite GPP QB, though. The Vikings are nine-point favorites, but instinct tells me this division-rivalry game stays close on the scoreboard throughout and should be a top-rated game stack. Though Dalvin Cook may play, Mike Zimmer may opt to not push hard and, instead, rely on the arm of Cousins with his group of talented pass-catchers. To put it simply, if you believe the Lions can hang with the Vikings and take this game to the wire, Cousins is the premier GPP play.

Trey Lance is not yet confirmed as the 49ers starter as of Thursday night. If he does draw the start, it will be extremely tempting for folks to auto-click on him for their lineups. His talent level, rushing upside and possible game script certainly makes him tempting. But with all the similar options in the higher multiplier range, I believe he’s far from an auto-pick. I wouldn’t even be surprised if Chicago’s Justin Fields (1.7x) outscores him Sunday despite a similarly tough on-paper matchup with the Raiders.

MME – Tom Brady, Mac Jones

The masses will flock to Chalk Lenny (Leonard Fournette), but I’ll be looking to go against the grain with a low-owned Tom Brady-led stack in GPPs against a Miami secondary that’s well respected but allowed nearly 400 passing yards to Raiders’ Derek Carr two weeks ago. The Patriots are 8.5-point road favorites, which will lead folks to be heavier on RB Damien Harris (1.55x), but a Mac Jones stack attack is a reasonable option to consider in a game that will be overlooked. For any New England stacks in 150-max, make sure you’re making a rule to add opposing wideout Brandin Cooks (1.45x) to those.

Favorite plays: Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence

Running Backs

The position is absolutely loaded, and you’ll probably notice that my projections omit some of the RBs we expect to be over 20% rostered – namely Leonard Fournette (1.6x) and Najee Harris (1.5x). Both could absolutely be considered for cash games and GPPs but when you have guys like Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift and Aaron Jones in their price ranges, there’s no choice but to squeeze them out of primary builds this week. Harris could certainly get there on sheer volume and getting in the end zone once but the aforementioned studs are all in better spots.

Cash – Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler

Those are listed in my order of priority. Ezekiel Elliott is coming off a massive 20-143-1 outing, taking on a Giants’ squad allowing 4.5 yards per carry and over 122 rushing yards per game. He’s seeing nearly 75% of snaps but his lack of involvement in the passing game is a bit concerning (no receptions last week, just seven on the season). The 1.4x multiplier is tasty and simply too difficult to overlook. Derrick Henry is averaging about 30 carries per game over his last two. Even at 1x, we’ll have to consider him but he’s far from a lock because of the alternative options who could put up higher scores because of their multipliers. No issue with Saquon Barkley or Austin Ekeler either. They’re both facing top-10 run-stopping units but are heavily involved as pass-catchers. Better suited for full-PPR sites but on SD, scoring a touchdown will be the difference between whether they pay off or not.

GPP – Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, D’Andre Swift, Damien Harris, Damien Williams

The Chargers rank bottom-four in YPC allowed (5.3) and rushing yards allowed (139.5) and have mostly just been letting opposing running backs run on them as they’ve focused on stopping opposing pass offenses. They’ll likely game plan to lock down Nick Chubb and teammate Kareem Hunt as QB Baker Mayfield has given defenses little reason for concern this season and appears broken. Chubb doesn’t catch passes so we’re looking for one of those massive Chubb specials (20-150-2) for him to find his way into the optimal. This feels like one of those games.

The Packers/Bengals game might appear as a slow-paced matchup based on four weeks of action but this game has sneaky shootout potential, especially if Joe Mixon doesn’t suit up and the Bengals have to rely their running game on a Samaje Perine/Chris Evans combo. Aaron Jones is coming off a lackluster performance and always seems to smash in games where he’s forgotten about and lightly rostered. With most GPP and cash players leaning the way of WR Davante Adams on this slate, Jones is a fantastic pivot. The Bengals’ run-stopping unit is well respected, but Jones can easily gash them.

I like the two Damiens (Damien Harris/Damien Williams) at 1.55x, as they both have advantageous matchups at solid price points. Either guy could find his way to 100 rushing yards and two scores, but they’re both listed as GPP plays since the studly bell cows and pass-catching mavens aren’t that much more expensive.

Favorite plays: Ezekiel Elliott, Saquon Barkley, Nick Chubb, Damien Harris

Wide Receivers

The mid-range is filled with options to the point where many of the sub-1.25x plays won’t find their way onto many rosters. It may be odd to see a stud like DJ Moore all the way at the bottom of this list. It’s not that he’s a bad play this week — we’re just overloaded with wideouts who can easily match or exceed his base output at more lucrative multipliers. As you may notice below, my projections seem to favor Jacksonville/Tennessee passing game stacks and expect bounceback performances from three recently underperforming studs in Allen Robinson, DeAndre Hopkins and a hopefully healthier A.J. Brown.

• CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys – The issue here is that every week it’s difficult to decide on Lamb vs. Amari Cooper. What do we have to go on but blind faith, a little luck and positive regression expectations? Both are due but Lamb is healthier, projects for more targets and should square off less with NYG CB James Bradberry. Bounce back time.
• Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – A good case can be made for Antonio Brown (1.5x) as well and he may be more popular. But give me the Tampa wideout with the best matchup here, which is in the slot against Justin Coleman. Coleman has been one of the worst cornerbacks this season, allowing a 92% catch rate and one PPR point for every three routes ran against him. It’s Godwin Week!
• Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – Can play as a one-off in a revenge narrative spot (one of his former teams) where we project a ton of volume and a likely positive game script for the Texans’ passing attack. We wish we were working with Tyrod Taylor rather than David Mills, though.
• Marvin Jones over Laviska Shenault – That’s my gut call this week and I’m sticking with it. A standard gamescript projection would be a ton of carries for Titans’ Derrick Henry with Trevor Lawrence and company engaged in catch-up mode for most of the game. This should be a close one, and though Shenault is getting all the attention and love, it’s Jones who’s the better red-zone threat with a higher chance of finding the end zone. Jones averaged nearly 10 targets per game until last week’s stinker. He really just has a nose for the end zone, scoring exactly nine times in three of the last four seasons. I don’t mind stacking both with Lawrence, but if I had to choose one, give me the lower rostered Marv.
• Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints – A GPP play through and through. He’s their de facto No. 1 wideout (if you don’t count Alvin Kamara), though he hasn’t had a game where he’s seen more than five targets. Jameis Winston hit Callaway on a 58-yard catch-and-run last game, and given how putrid Washington’s secondary has been, my guess is that Winston takes some deep shots in this one. This time though, he should connect with his boy Callaway more often than he has these previous weeks.
• DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals – It’s squeaky wheel greasing time for DHop, who hasn’t looked like the top-three WR he was drafted as in seasonal leagues since Week 1’s two-TD performance. Hopkins saw a whopping 28 targets (22 receptions) in two games against the Niners last season and this possibly high-scoring affair has that feel of a prime outing for one of the NFL’s elite. My 18.2 projected base points might be underselling him.

Favorite plays: DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin, Marvin Jones, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Mike Williams

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Tight Ends

We have no Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts on this slate, so most will be dumpster diving, as the allure for Darren Waller has waned a bit coming off consecutive lackluster performances. I do believe many will lean the way of Dalton Schultz at his reasonable multiplier in the slate’s highest projected total in the late window. I’m fine with it, but I prefer Mike Gesicki for a similar price tag coming off two games where he’s caught 15-of-18 targets with a plus projected gamescript and no Will Fuller to siphon target share. 

Lions’ T.J. Hockenson hasn’t been at full health these last couple weeks, and it’s showed in the box scores. He’s going to come in at under 5%, and I do think he’s an ideal bringback in your Kirk Cousins stacks. If I’m building 150 in the Red Zone, I’d get some exposure to Anthony Firkser (2x) to go along with A.J. Brown (1.3x) and QB Ryan Tannehill (1.35x) where you don’t use Henry. Speaking of guys named Henry, Hunter Henry of the Patriots is a great red-zone presence for them. I luckboxed in a Showdown slate playing both New England tight ends (Henry and Jonnu Smith) as both scored touchdowns and you can flip a coin on them week to week. But Henry has slightly outproduced Smith and is the best bet on this roster other than RB Damien Harris to score a touchdown. Perhaps it’s finally time for Jakobi Meyers to finally catch his first NFL touchdown pass.  

Favorite plays: Mike Gesicki (Brady/Godwin bringback teams), Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, Tyler Conklin (in Cousins stacks)