Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week, I’ll review my single entry lineup, as well as a couple of others. I will also track success rates throughout the season. The criteria for the other lineups to make the article (and tracking) will be > 10% of my overall investment. This week, that includes:
- Single-entry lineup
The goal here is to hold myself accountable for the decisions I make while also helping to provide a blueprint for long-term success in GPPs.
Throughout the year, I’ll emphasize the top 10% and top 1% hit rates. While profit/loss is at the mercy of significant variance at the top of tournaments, these hit rates stabilize much faster and can therefore paint a stronger picture of our performance.
I’m disappointed in the SE results so far, but now that I’m gaining comfort with MME I’ll go back to doing both SE and 3E, which I found success within Week 1.
Plus, I know my process was great this week. Speaking of…
The Single Entry
I had such high hopes for this one. Let’s get right to it:
Every choice we make can be categorized into one of four groups:
- Bad Process & Bad Outcome
- Bad Process & Good Outcome
- Good Process & Bad Outcome
- Good Process & Good Outcome
We’ll begin with #1:
Bad Process & Bad Outcome
N/A
Bad Process & Good Outcome
N/A
Good Process & Bad Outcome
1. Los Angeles Rams stack
In highlighting this stack, the first thing I talked about was the pace. Well, Stafford threw the ball over 40 times for the first time this year. Unfortunately, he was terrible. Here are his yards per attempt by week:
Week 1: 12.3
Week 2: 9.3
Week 3: 9.0
Week 4: 6.8
Stafford’s struggles killed the receivers, but the game environment proved ripe for ceiling outcomes all around. Even DeSean Jackson won deep again and earned the target… which Stafford underthrew for an interception.
1. Miles Sanders
The Eagles RBs combined for 136 yards, a TD, and 9 receptions. Unfortunately, it was Gainwell who had the most success. What killed Sanders was Nick Sirianni’s red zone play-calling – again. Sanders was on the field numerous times against a light front, only for Sirianni to out-think himself and go elsewhere – unsuccessfully.
Lane Johnson’s absence gave me pause before the game, but the offensive success and the opportunities for TDs that followed proved the thesis of the play had merit.
2. Odell Beckham Jr.
OBJ had 7 targets with an average depth of target of nearly 22 yards. Similar to the Rams, this play fell through due to poor QB play. For example:
3. Travis Kelce
This was the heart-breaker. Not only did my Eagles lose while giving up 42 freaking points, but they did so while holding Kelce to 4-23? What kind of cruel joke is that?
I will happily go right back to him the next chance I get.
Good Process & Good Outcome
1. Ezekiel Elliott
20 carries, 143 yards, and a TD. That’ll work! It was a bit unfortunate that one score was all he got and that he added nothing in the receiving game, but Zeke and the offensive line dominated. Part of this play was the correlated leverage he provided over the chalky Dallas receivers and that part worked exactly as hoped.
2. A.J. Green
I was torn between Green and Chase Edmonds for the bring-back, and both were great. AJ Green continues to produce at a remarkably consistent level – if he’s going to remain this cheap and low-owned, we should be playing him a lot, as this offense has rejuvenated him.
Had the Rams been able to find any success whatsoever offensively, it’s entirely possible that Green would have had an even bigger day.
Takeaways
I don’t have many takeaways from this slate specifically. I feel like I set myself up well for success and just didn’t get things to go my way enough. Such is DFS, especially in GPPs. Despite the early season struggles from a results perspective, I feel like I’m hitting my stride from a process perspective. A key to long-term GPP success is accepting that losses will come in bunches and staying true to your process. Let the wins come as they do!
