Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 4 was a tough week for many NFL bettors. That means it was a good one for the books. The Chicago Bears looked dreadful in Week 3, and the Detroit Lions almost beat the Ravens if not for a last-minute drive and a 66-yard field goal that doinked in after hitting the crossbar, but then the Bears beat up on the Lions.
Teasers got killed this weekend, as the Titans and Saints were both very popular teams to tease through the 3 and 7 down to -1.5 or -2. Both lost outright to the two New York football teams. The Chiefs finally covered. That was nice to see. I guess -17 was not even close to enough points in that Buffalo/Houston game, as the Bills shut them out 40-0. Tip of the cap to the No. 1 team for bettors ATS in 2021, the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are the only team left that is undefeated against the spread this year. Check out every NFL team’s ATS records and how many times they went over or under the closing line total here.
Against-the-Spread Report
Underdogs covered more games than favorites in two of the first three weeks of the season. This week, underdogs and favorites finished tied at 8 wins for each. A one-unit bet on every underdog in every game is still slightly profitable on the season, although the only ones who made money this week with the record being 8-8 seems to be the books. On the moneyline, we did have 10 games won by the team at the shorter price. The Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers both won outright but failed to cover. The Chiefs, Cowboys, Browns, Bears, Bills, Colts, Packers and Chargers all won and covered their number. Good teams win, Great teams cover. A lot of these listed teams are great. Check out where they fall in our FTNBets Power Rankings.
NFL Underdog Record
We had only six underdogs win out of 16 games over the weekend, but a flat one-unit bet on every underdog returned a profit thanks to the long odds on the Jets and Giants to pull off their improbable victories. Washington, Seattle, Arizona and Baltimore were the other four dogs to get the job done, but they were all much shorter prices. The old saying still holds true for another week here. You don’t go broke betting on dogs, especially when they are at home.
2021 NFL Team Scoring
I keep hearing everyone talk about the high-flying NFL and how this is a high-scoring passing league, but the reality has not matched up with the hype so far. The over had cashed only 21 times in 48 games through Week 3. That is just 43.75% of the time. This past week, the over cashed in only six of 16 games. That was just 37.5% of the time. On the season the overs vs. unders tally is now 27-37, which lowered the percentage for 2021 to overs cashing just 42.1% of the time.
As far as team trends go, we have five teams to note here. The Los Angeles Rams are the only team in the league that has played over the total in all four of their games so far. The offensive is more explosive, but the defense is also giving up more points due to the pace of play. The lack of a good running game and the injuries factor into this as well. The Broncos, Chargers, Patriots and Steelers have all played to the under in each of their first four games. All four have very good defenses and at least three of the four have suspect offenses.
Will these trends continue? It is unlikely in my opinion. Books know these stats as well, so expect to start seeing them adjust the totals for these teams downward and the Rams totals to jump up a bit. These are good numbers to keep in mind, but I would not go out and blindly bet these unders going forward as I think you will end up too late to the party. Don’t miss our first look at Week 5 NFL betting lines here.
