Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 5 is a very weird week in NFL DFS, as some of the best offenses in all of football are not on the main Sunday slate. That makes the high-end players a lot more interesting but to get those players into your lineups, you are going to have to find some value.
Let’s get after it.
Quarterback | Week 5 DFS values
Jameis Winston @ Washington Football Team
($5,600 on DK)
Jameis Winston is definitely risky due to his lack of passing volume and the rise of Taysom Hill, who played a season-high 34 snaps Sunday and rushed for two touchdowns. The Saints have been relying on their defense and running game this season, especially without Michael Thomas in the lineup. Winston is only averaging 21.5 pass attempts per game. But I do think there is potential here against a Washington defense that is getting torched through the air this season. Through four games, the Football Team is surrendering a healthy 6.1% passing touchdown rate, the eighth-highest mark in football. Only the Chiefs are coughing up more points per drive than Washington (2.95), while opposing teams are scoring points on 57.1% of drives against this team, the highest rate in football. They are also allowing the fifth-highest aDOT (9.6 yards), and while Winston’s volume is down, he is still taking plenty of shots down the field, sporting an aDOT of 9.0 yards. Nearly 77% of the touchdowns scored against Washington this season have come through the air, good for the seventh-highest rate in the NFL. If Washington can slow down Alvin Kamara and the running game, forcing Winston to throw more, I think he can post some very strong numbers against this reeling pass defense.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Tennessee Titans
($6,500 on FD)
Trevor Lawrence is coming off the best game of his young career Thursday night, and while Jacksonville will be without D.J. Chark, I still like his chances of building off last week’s performance. He returns home to host a Tennessee defense that just allowed nearly 300 yards and two scores to Zach Wilson Sunday. On the season, the Titans are allowing 8.9 adjusted yards per pass attempt, the fifth-most in the league, while only the Lions are allowing more yards per completion through the first four games (12.9). Lawrence is also providing some solid rushing numbers as of late, recording at least 20 rushing yards in each of his last three games. Lawrence only attempted 24 passes last week, as the Jaguars actually held a 14-0 lead at halftime but if Jacksonville falls behind like they normally do in this game, the rookie passer should flirt with around 40 pass attempts, especially if the Titans get both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown back in their lineup.
Running back | Week 5 DFS values
Damien Harris @ Houston Texans
($5,500 on DK)
Harris isn’t usually the most appealing player on a PPR site like DraftKings, but perhaps that is changing. The Patriots will be without James White for the remainder of the season, and while the production wasn’t great Sunday night against the Buccaneers (shocker), the usage was actually encouraging for Harris. The third-year running back posted a career-high in routes run (18), and we saw J.J. Taylor fumble, which is a one-way ticket to the shadow realm in Bill Belichick’s offense. Feel free to completely ignore Harris’ rushing numbers from the last game, as no one runs on Tampa Bay. But things should change this week, as the Patriots are road favorites against an awful Texans team. Houston is surrendering the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season, while no team in football has missed more tackles than the Texans (37). Harris should return to seeing 15-17 carries in this game. But if there really is something to this uptick in pass routes, he becomes a lot more interesting in fantasy.
Leonard Fournette vs. Miami Dolphins
($6,400 on FD)
Fournette was Tampa Bay’s best player Sunday night, rushing for 91 yards on 20 carries against the Patriots, while adding three catches for 47 yards on five targets. The Buccaneers were without Giovani Bernard, which led to Fournette running 37 pass routes, the most among all running backs in Week 4. His 20 carries were also his most since joining the Buccaneers last season, as Ronald Jones has clearly become the backup running back — Fournette outsnapped Jones 64-13. It remains to be seen whether this usage continues for Fournette, and his third-down snaps and pass routes are sure to come down once Bernard returns. However, Bernard could miss this game, while the Buccaneers are home favorites against a Miami defense that has surrendered 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game so far. Opposing offenses are running the football a healthy 45.3% of the time against the Dolphins this season, good for the seventh-highest rate in football, while 35.2% of the yardage against this defense has come on the ground. As it stands right now, Fournette is a 17-20-touch back on a top-five offense in the NFL. There is a lot to like, especially at his DK price tag.
Wide receiver | Week 5 DFS values
Kadarius Toney @ Dallas Cowboys
($4,000 on DK)
It took injuries to both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton for him to get on the field, but Kadarius Toney showed his skills Sunday against the Saints. The rookie hauled in six of his nine targets for 78 yards, while logging 78% of the snaps. A huge reason I loved Toney as a prospect was his ability to make huge plays, especially after the catch, and we saw that a bit this past week. Toney forced five missed tackles on his six catches, the most in the NFL from Week 4, and Jason Garrett actually used Toney very well. Both Shepard and Slayton should be viewed as very questionable again entering a Week 5 matchup with the Cowboys and if they can’t return to the lineup, Toney remains a strong value option. Dallas’ rising star Trevon Diggs could shadow Kenny Golladay in this game, as he’s shadowed multiple times already this season.
Laviska Shenault vs. Tennessee Titans
($5,800 on FD)
After a very slow start to the season, Laviska Shenault got back on track last Thursday night. After D.J. Chark exited the game with an injury, Shenault operated as the top receiver for the Jaguars, hauling in 6-of-7 targets for 99 yards, while adding an 11-yard carry. Outside of a broken play where Shenault gained 55 yards, he is still being used very close to the line of scrimmage, sporting an aDOT of 7.19 yards — which is actually much better than the beginning of the season, when it was hovering around four. Marvin Jones should be a lot more involved than he was last game, but this passing game should go through Jones and Shenault and this matchup is fantastic, as the Jaguars face an awful Tennessee secondary that is coughing up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts on the season.
Tight end | Week 5 DFS values
Tyler Conklin vs. Detroit Lions
($3,500 on DK)
Tyler Conklin has been relatively productive as of late, and as a result, Minnesota is giving him more opportunities. He ran a season-high 32 pass routes this past week and as a result, the Vikings have decreased their 11-personnel rate over the last two weeks. Playing alongside Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, Conklin will never lead this team in targets. However, he’s in a good offense, is running more routes seemingly each week and faces a weak Detroit defense that has allowed the third-most points per drive this season (2.67), as well as the fifth-most red zone touchdowns (10).
Jonnu Smith @ Houston Texans
($4,900 on FD)
Jonnu Smith has been a disappointment this season, but he did find the end zone last game and has at least five targets in every game so far. That doesn’t sound like a ton, but given the state of the tight end position, it is notable. He and Hunter Henry are still huge parts of this offense, and both tight ends get a tremendous Week 5 matchup against a Texans team that has surrendered a touchdown to a tight end in each of their last two games. And on the season, Houston is allowing the second-most fantasy points, sixth-most receptions (6.5) and fourth-most yards (66.8) per game to opposing tight ends.
