Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I tend to bet sides and totals early in the week — usually Sunday night or Monday morning — in the expectation that lines will move as the week progresses.
You can find all my bets in the FTN Bet Tracker. Use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription.
Given the line movement we’ve already seen, the following plays are my current best bets — the ones I think offer the most value right now.
Game odds via our Week 5 betting odds page.
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals Week 5 odds
- Bet: Packers -3
- Odds:-105, DraftKings Sportsbook
I bet this Sunday night at -3.5 — so I’m not thrilled that the market has moved against me — but this line feels like recency bias to the extreme.
If I had told you a month ago before the season started that the Packers and Bengals would both be 3-1 entering their Week 5 game, you probably would have said something like, “The Packers at 3-1: I can see that. The Bengals at 3-1? That feels like luck.”
And then if I had told you that the Packers would be favored by only three points — and that quarterback Aaron Rodgers and wide receiver Davante Adams were both still healthy — you would’ve said something like, “That line is an overreaction to the Bengals’ 3-1 record.”
Listen to your theoretical self from a month ago.
On the road and outside of division, Rodgers is on the wrong side of his historical splits. Rodgers is a creature of comfort: He likes playing in the familiar confines of Lambeau Field, and he likes playing the known defenses of the NFC North. But as a non-divisional visitor, he is a mediocre 36-34-1 ATS for his career.
But I like what the Packers have done over the past three weeks. Forget about Week 1: That was a burn-the-tape performance. Since then, the Packers are 3-0 ATS.
They beat the Lions by 18 points as -11.5 favorites. They beat the 49ers on the road as underdogs. They beat the Steelers by 10 points as -6.5 favorites. In these three games, they outperformed the spread by an average of +5.2 points.
The Packers might be without No. 1 cornerback Jaire Alexander (shoulder). But the Bengals could be without running back Joe Mixon (ankle) — the true engine of the Bengals offense — as well as center Trey Hopkins (knee), guard Xavier Su’a-Filo (knee), and No. 1 cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (groin).
The Bengals in pass defense are No. 5 with 6.1 adjusted yards per attempt — but I don’t think that number is representative of who they really are. In Week 1, Kirk Cousins on the road passed for 351 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions against them. And then in Weeks 2-4 they played against Andy Dalton, Justin Fields off the bench, Ben Roethlisberger, and Trevor Lawrence.
I expect Rodgers to be able to pass against this defense and put up enough points to put this game out of reach.
Pick: Packers -3
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Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 5 odds
- Bet: Dolphins +10
- Odds: -110, PointsBet
I bet this Sunday night at +10.5, but I still like it at +10.
The Bucs are 1-3 ATS: Clearly, they entered the season with an inflated market as the Super Bowl champions, and they are dealing with all sort of injuries that make them extremely vulnerable.
On defense, they might be without edge rusher Jason Pierre-Paul (shoulder, hand), cornerbacks Carlton Davis (quadriceps), Jamel Dean (knee) and Sean Murphy Bunting (elbow, IR), and strong safety Antoine Winfield (concussion).
Dolphins backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett looked bad last week — but the dropoff from starter Tua Tagovailoa to Brissett still might be minimal, and Brissett as a veteran still might be good enough to exploit an injured defense that has allowed a league-high 1,310 yards passing.
On offense, the Bucs might be without pass-catching security blankets tight end Rob Gronkowski (ribs) and running back Giovani Bernard (knee).
The Dolphins have two strong perimeter cornerbacks in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. If they are able to limit wide receivers Mike Evans and Antonio Brown on the outside — and if Brady can’t rely on the short passing game via Gronkowski and Bernard — then he could struggle this week, just as he did last week.
On top of that, Dolphins head coach Brian Flores is a former longtime Patriots assistant who worked his way up the ranks on Bill Belichick’s defensive staff.
Over the past half decade, Brady has had some of his worst performances against Patriots defensive coaches-turned-head coaches. In fact, when Flores last faced Brady — in a must-win Week 17 game for the Patriots in 2019 — the Dolphins won 27-24 … as 17.5-point underdogs.
In that game, Brady was just 16-of-29 passing for 221 yards and two touchdowns to one interception.
Flores is 22-14 ATS for his career, and if we remove his 0-4 ATS first month on the job in 2019, when he tore down the Dolphins roster so he could rebuild it, he is 22-10 ATS.
As an underdog, he is 18-10 ATS (and 18-6 ATS without Weeks 1-4 of 2019).
As good as the Bucs are — and as bad as the Dolphins looked last week in their 27-17 loss to the Colts — 10 points is a lot of points to lay when your secondary is injured, when opponents can pass on you at will, and when you’re facing a coach who knows your quarterback very well and tends to cover anyway, especially as an underdog.
The Bucs should win this game, but the cover is questionable.
Pick: Dolphins +10
Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Week 5 odds
- Bet: Panthers -3.5
- Odds: -105, FanDuel Sportsbook
Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold has had three 300-yard passing games in each of the past three weeks, and — in the words of high-stakes dominator Nelson Sousa — “Darnold has somehow morphed into Cam Newton with all these rushing touchdowns.”
Darnold is playing the best football of his career with a 67.8% completion rate and 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt. Ranking Nos. 13 & 14 in yards (34.2) and plays (6.2) per drive, the Panthers have a good-enough offense.
And on defense they have been terrific. Even with their 36-28 loss to the Cowboys last week, the Panthers are No. 2 on defense with plays (4.8) and yards (22.7) per drive allowed. The loss of cornerback Jaycee Horn (foot, IR) is unfortunate, but the addition of 2020 No. 9 overall pick C.J. Henderson might help to minimize the impact of Horn’s absence.
The Eagles are intriguing overall, but they aren’t as strong on offense (39.4 yards per drive, No. 4) as the Panthers are on defense, and they’re not as strong on defense (33.8 yards per drive allowed, No. 18) as the Panthers are on offense.
It’s not as simple as this, but … the Panthers are 3-1 ATS, and the Eagles are 1-3 ATS. The Panthers just lost to the Cowboys in Dallas by eight points, whereas the Eagles lost to the Cowboys by 20 points (41-21) in Dallas the week before.
Even if you give the Panthers no home-field advantage, they are probably more than 3.5 points better than the Eagles.
Pick: Panthers -3.5
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals Week 5 odds
- Bet: 49ers +5.5
- Odds: -110, Caesars
I was way too early betting this game at +3.5 Sunday night, when I thought there still might be a chance for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo to play.
Even so, I have added to my position at +5.5: In a divisional game between these two teams, I think anything more than +3 is too much, even without Garoppolo, who wasn’t being used in a maximizing way within the 49ers offense prior to his injury.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan and Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury both have historical splits that are highly suggestive of when and how to bet them.
I love betting against Shanahan at home (10-20-1 ATS) and as a favorite (10-20-1 ATS). As a home favorite, in particular, Shanahan has been bad (3-13-1 ATS).
But Shanahan on the road (20-14 ATS) and as an underdog (23-16 ATS) is investable. And as a road underdog he has been at his best (15-9 ATS).
We see a similar dynamic with Kingsbury. At home (7-10 ATS) and as a favorite (5-8 ATS) he has disappointed. As a home favorite he has been at his worst (2-6).
But on the road (12-5-2 ATS) and as an underdog (14-7-2 ATS) Kingsbury has been a star. As a road underdog, he has been a money machine (9-3-2 ATS).
With Shanahan as a road dog and Kingsbury as a home favorite, we have a perfect alignment of strength on weakness. Bang a gong.
I think this game comes down to rookie quarterback Trey Lance. With his rushing prowess, I believe that he has a Lamar Jackson-like ability to improvise and make game-changing, cover-clinching plays at the end of games — plays that defenses can’t plan for and can’t stop.
And with a week to gameplan around Lance, Shanahan should be able to put him in advantageous situations and scheme easy completions for him, just as he has done for years with other quarterbacks.
The 49ers are injured in their secondary. No. 1 cornerback Jason Verrett (knee, IR) is out, and slot corner K’Waun Williams (calf) missed last week and is uncertain to play.
But the 49ers are still No. 10 with 5.3 yards allowed per play. They know Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray as well as any other team does. They won’t stop him — but they (with Kingsbury’s playcalling conservatism) might slow Murray down just enough for Lance to get the 49ers the cover.
Pick: 49ers +5.5
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From Thursday:
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams Week 5 odds
- Bet: +2.5
- Odds: -110, BetMGM
I bet this Sunday night thinking that there was a decent chance the line would move toward the Seahawks after they won in Week 4 and the Rams lost and little chance that the line would get all the way to +3 if it moved against me.
I was wrong about the line moving in my direction, but so far I am at least correct about the line not getting to +3.
I normally don’t like to bet on a line if it moves against me. Instead of thinking, “Oh, look, a better number on a bet I like,” I tend to think, “The market probably knows more than I do, which means my initial bet was likely on the wrong side.”
I am nothing if not humble.
But the difference between +1 and +2.5 is relatively small — and I feel compelled to bet on the Seahawks in this spot.
Under head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 54-39-3 against the spread. The Seahawks truly do have a home-field advantage that few other teams possess.
And I absolutely love the idea of betting on quarterback Russell Wilson as an underdog. Are you kidding me? Wilson getting points?!
In the regular season, Wilson as an underdog is 28-14-2 ATS and 19-16-1 straight up with a profit of +13.1 units — and that means I also like the Seahawks on the moneyline.
As a home underdog, Wilson is 6-2 ATS and has covered by an average of +6.63 points.
I can’t imagine not betting on the Seahawks in this spot.
As much respect as I have for Rams head coach Sean McVay, he seems to be an early-in-the-season edge exploiter. For his career, he is 8-2 ATS in Weeks 1-2, perhaps because he is such a meticulous planner. But after Week 2, he is a mediocre 29-27-2 ATS.
Starting in Week 3, the McVay magic has historically been an illusion.
In this game, we have two overrated defenses. The Rams are No. 32 in time (3:28) and plays (7.6) and No. 31 in yards (41.8) per drive allowed, while the Seahawks are No. 30 in time (3:19), plays (7.0), and yards (40.4) allowed.
Given that, I’ll take the team with the Hall-of-Fame quarterback who usually overperforms at home and as an underdog.
Pick: Seahawks +2.5
