Freedman's Week 2 fantasy football breakdown

Week 2: Just like Week 1 — except totally different.

Now we know just how little we know.

I could expand on that idea with a long introduction, but I’m too lazy and you’re too busy.

Let’s get into the good stuff.

In the main 13-game weekend slate, here are the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who stand out to me the most based on our expert rankings and fantasy projections as well as the Week 2 betting odds and our wealth of football content across FTN Fantasy, FTN Daily and FTN Bets.

Note: As NFL news breaks as kickoff approaches and Week 2 NFL inactives are announced Sunday morning, my perspective on some players in this piece may change. For my most up-to-date thoughts on players, consult our rankings.

To see all my Week 2 bets, check out our FTN Bet Tracker. Use the promo code FREEDMAN to get 20% off your FTN subscription.

Freedman’s favorite quarterbacks for Week 2

Below, I take a look at my favorite quarterbacks for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 2.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Minnesota)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 1
Spread: -4.5
Total: 51

Kyler Murray was the top quarterback in my Week 1 fantasy football breakdown, and that worked out well, as he was a top-two producer on the slate with a 34.6 fantasy points on 289-4-1 passing and 5-20-1 rushing.

If you rostered Murray in daily fantasy guaranteed prize pools last week, you had a good chance of cashing: The winning lineup in the Week 1 FanDuel $3 million Sunday NFL Juggernaut was a Murray build.

With his epic Week 1 performance, Murray has recaptured the MVP-caliber form he owned last year before suffering a shoulder injury in Week 11.

Prior to that season-altering event, Murray was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in the league with 31.4 DraftKings and 30.2 FanDuel points per game (per our Splits Tool).

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I expect to see more of the same from Murray in Week 2.

Although the Vikings last week held the Bengals to only 261 yards passing, quarterback Joe Burrow was highly efficient, completing 74.0% of his passes for 11.2 adjusted yards per attempt. If Burrow could do that — in his first game back from a season-ending ACL tear — imagine what Murray will be able to do at home.

In all probability, the Vikings are outclassed at cornerback. At 31 years old, Patrick Peterson is more of a liability than an asset. Last week — his first game with the Vikings after spending the first decade of his career with the Cardinals — Peterson played exclusively at right corner, which means that this week he’s likely to match up with All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for almost the entire game (per our WR/CB Matchups Tool). For Peterson, that’s less than ideal.

Murray could get 150 yards and two touchdowns on passes to Hopkins alone.

As for the other Vikings corners: Last week, left corner Bashaud Breeland allowed 5-107-2 receiving on eight targets. He was brutal, especially on the 50-yard touchdown he allowed to rookie wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase in his first NFL game.

And slot cornerback Mackensize Alexander allowed a 70.1% completion rate last year and 75% completion rate last week.

Murray should be able to produce against these cornerbacks at will.

With head coach Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals are 2-5 against the spread as home favorites. The Cardinals are one of the winning Week 1 dogs I believe in — but I’m hesitant to bet on them in a situation in which they’ve been so overwhelmingly negative for bettors.

But at home and as a favorite, Murray is on the positive side of his notable splits.

At home (16 games): 25.4 DraftKings points | 24.3 FanDuel points
On road (17 games): 20.5 DraftKings points | 19.6 FanDuel points
As favorites (11 games): 26.1 DraftKings points | 25.0 FanDuel points
As underdogs (22 games): 21.3 DraftKings points | 20.4 FanDuel points

And in Murray’s seven games as a home favorite, he has averaged a scintillating 29.3 DraftKings and 28.1 FanDuel points.

This game has one of the highest totals on the slate, and the Cardinals play at a blistering pace: Last year they had a league-high no-huddle rate of 38.4% (per our No-Huddle Offense Stats Tool). With these factors, I expect Murray to dominate opportunities for the Cardinals with a high volume of passes, scrambles, and designed runs — and that usage should translate into fantasy points.

I expect that Murray will be one of the top quarterbacks in my Week 1 DFS Cheat Sheets.

Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos (at Jacksonville)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 20
Spread: -6
Total: 45

Teddy Bridgewater impressed last week, going 28-of-36 passing for 264 yards and two touchdowns and adding 19 yards rushing.

And his day could have been markedly better if not for a dropped touchdown by wide receiver K.J. Hamler.

A game manager by reputation, Bridgewater displayed surprising downfield aggressiveness in Week 1. Whereas last year with the Panthers he had a bottom-of-the-barrel 7.2-yard average depth of target, last week against the Giants he had a middle-of-the-road mark of 8.7 (per our Air Yards Tool).

His boldness paid off.

His matchup against the Jaguars is fantastic: Last year, they were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks with 23.6 DraftKings and 22.4 FanDuel points per game, and last week — despite being -3.5 favorites — they lost by 16 points, yielded 37 points to the Texans, and allowed 291-2-0 passing and 4-40-0 rushing to journeyman Tyrod Taylor.

Bridgewater will be without emerging second-year wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (ankle), who suffered a severe sprain in Week 1, but the Broncos are still stacked with pass-catching talent with wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick along with Hamler and tight ends Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam.

Although Bridgewater isn’t playing at home, I’m not worried about that for a couple of reasons.

It’s possible that Bridgewater isn’t fully acclimated to the Denver elevation. It sometimes takes even professional athletes a few months to adjust to the thin air.
Bridgewater is an unbelievable — nay, a heroic! — 22-3 ATS on the road for his career.

Broncos -6 was one of the early plays I put into our Bet Tracker Sunday night when lines were first released. Anything less than -7 in this game feels bettable, and as a fantasy play Bridgewater is very rosterable as a season-long streaming option and DFS paydown candidate.

Upside quarterbacks for Week 2

Here are some quarterbacks I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Tennessee): One of my 2021 fantasy bold predictions is that Wilson will finish the year as the No. 1 overall fantasy quarterback, and he certainly flashed in Week 1 with 254 yards and four touchdowns passing on just 23 attempts. Last year, the Titans were No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks with 23.4 DraftKings and 22.1 FanDuel points per game, and in Week 1 they coughed up a 289-4-1 passing and 5-20-1 rushing performance to Kyler Murray. I have a +4400 ticket on Wilson to lead the league in passing yards.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Atlanta): Last year the Falcons were a top-two team in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks with 26.1 DraftKings and 24.0 FanDuel points per game, and last week they yielded a 77.1% completion rate and 9.3 AY/A to Jalen Hurts. The Falcons have a new coaching staff this year, but they remain thin in their secondary, and last year Brady averaged 394.5 yards and three touchdowns passing in two games against them. With three extra days of rest, Brady should be fresh coming off last week’s 379-4-2 season-opening Thursday Night Football performance. Brady is one of our top DraftKings DFS plays and top FanDuel DFS plays, and the Bucs have moved up to No. 2 in our NFL Power Rankings.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (at LA Chargers): Over the past two-plus years, Cowboys overs are 21-12 with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and 5-1 in Prescott’s starts. The total for this game opened at 50.5 on Sunday night at DraftKings, where it has since been bet up to 55.5. A plethora of points are to be expected. Dating back to last year, Prescott has averaged 418.4 yards passing, 19.8 yards rushing, and three touchdowns total in five full games. I’m high on Prescott this week relative to the industry consensus.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Dallas): Last year, the Cowboys allowed 29.6 points per game to opponents with defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. This offseason, they fired him — and then got worse by hiring Dan Quinn to replace him. Last week, they allowed 31 points to the Buccaneers and 379 yards and four touchdowns passing to a 44-year-old journeyman … named Tom Brady. After his historic 4,331-yard, 31-touchdown rookie season last year, Herbert leveled up again in Week 1 with 337-1-1 passing and a 66.0% completion rate against a top-three Football Team defense. Herbert is one of Javier Prellezo’s “Must Jav” players for Week 2.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. San Francisco): In his three full 2020 starts, Hurts passed for 847 yards, rushed for 238 yards, and amassed six total touchdowns — and then in Week 1 he preached the gospel some more with 264-3-0 passing on a 77.1% completion rate as well as 7-62-0 rushing. The 49ers are without No. 1 cornerback Jason Verrett (knee, IR), and without him they are thin on the perimeter. I have a 100-1 MVP ticket on Hurts, and I’m already thinking of ways to spend the winnings. Hurts over 48.5 yards rushing is one of the best player props of Week 2.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Las Vegas): After his 188-yard performance last week, if Roethlisberger doesn’t bounce back this week, I’ll probably be out on him for the rest of the season. The Raiders last year were a top-eight team in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks with 22.1 DraftKings and 20.7 FanDuel points per game, and Roethlisberger is at Heinz Field, where he has benefitted from extreme splits since 2014 (24.6 DraftKings and 22.9 FanDuel points per game at home vs. 17.3 and 16.2 on the road). At least he’s likely to be rostered in far less than 5% of DFS tournament lineups (per our NFL Exposure Projections). Roethlisberger is one of our top DFS value picks for Week 2.

Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans (at Cleveland): The Browns have a strong defense led by edge rusher Myles Garrett and cornerback Denzel Ward, but Taylor has an underappreciated #KonamiCode floor, and last week he at times looked like a Deshaun Watson doppelganger with 21-of-33 passing for 291 yards and two touchdowns and 4-40-0 rushing. As a starter, Taylor is 28-18-3 ATS for his career, and he should dominate opportunities on his team as a double-digit underdog. Plus, #RevengeGame.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots (at NY Jets): Jones was an efficient 29-of-39 passing for 281 yards and one touchdown last week against a tough Dolphins defense, and now he gets to face the Jets, who last year were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks with 24.1 DraftKings and 22.6 FanDuel points per game. Under new head coach Robert Saleh (49ers defensive coordinator 2017-20), the secondary almost certainly won’t be worse than it was last year — but, even so, the Jets entered the year No. 32 in Jeff Ratcliffe’s cornerback unit rankings. Jones is one of our top streaming quarterbacks for Week 2.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (at Pittsburgh): The Steelers defense last year was No. 1 with a -19.8% pass DVOA (per Football Outsiders), and in Week 1 they made Josh Allen look more like the 2018 scattershot rookie than the 2020 MVP candidate — but Carr has a respectable 7.8 AY/A over his past three-plus years with head coach Jon Gruden, and Monday night he took it to a strong Ravens secondary with 34-of-56 passing for 435 yards and two touchdowns to one interception (with the benefit of overtime). No DFS quarterback as cheap as Carr this week has a higher ceiling.

Freedman’s favorite running backs

Below, I take a look at my favorite running backs for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 2.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Las Vegas)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 8
Spread: -5.5
Total: 47

If you look only at his production, the big-bodied rookie back from Alabama had a relatively unsexy NFL debut with just 16-45-0 rushing and 1-4-0 receiving on three targets. Entering the year, the Steelers had the No. 32 offensive line in NFL guru Brett Whitefield’s offensive line rankings, and it showed in Week 1, as Najee Harris got very little help from his blockers.

But Harris is still one of my rookies to bet on for 2021. I drafted him consistently this offseason and bet on him to go over 1,350.5 yards rushing and receiving because I expected to get something akin to the 2014-17 Le’Veon Bell and 2018 James Conner treatment.

And that’s what we saw in Week 1. All the snaps. Almost all the backfield touches. And positional-best usage as a route runner.

Harris is primed.

The Steelers are one of the Week 1 underdogs that won, taking down the vaunted Bills in Buffalo, and now they host the Raiders, who are playing on short rest after their hard-fought overtime victory over the Ravens Monday night.

The matchup could not be much better for Harris. Last year, the Raiders defense was No. 28 with a 0.3% run DVOA, and in Week 1 they saw both of their key offseason defensive line acquisitions — edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue (hamstring) and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy (knee) — exit early with injuries.

While the severity of their injuries is unknown, the short turnaround after MNF makes both players extremely questionable for this week. (Use our NFL Weekly Practice Report to monitor Ngakoue and McCoy.)

Last year, the Raiders were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs with 29.3 DraftKings and 26.0 FanDuel points per game — and just last week they allowed fourth-string injury fill-in Ty’Son Williams, discarded veteran Latavius Murray, and roster fodder Trenton Cannon to combine for 21-98-2 rushing and 3-29-0 receiving on four targets.

As a significant favorite with a soft matchup, Harris could have a massive performance this week in his first NFL home game.

Harris is one of our top SuperDraft plays for Week 2.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Brown (vs. Houston)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 23
Spread: -12.5
Total: 48

As the No. 2 back in his offense, Kareem Hunt has a capped ceiling — but he’s the best No. 2 back in the league, and he’s a double-digit home favorite, so a lot of fantasy points could flow to the Browns backfield this week.

With starter Nick Chubb likely to be the primary beneficiary of an expected run-heavy game script, Hunt could offer leverage as an overlooked option in DFS tournaments, and in season-long managed leagues he holds significant upside as an RB2/flex option.

In his 19 games under head coach Kevin Stefanski (including playoffs), Hunt has amassed 15 touchdowns and averaged 68.5 yards from scrimmage on 11.5 carries and 2.9 targets per game. Even with a capped ceiling, Hunt has an established high floor.

And his matchup is immaculate. Last year the Texans were a top-two team in most fantasy points allowed to running backs with 33.1 DraftKings and 30.0 FanDuel points per game, and they also yielded the most yards after contact of any team in the league with 3.56 yards per attempt (per our Advanced Rushing Defense Stats Tool).

Although the Jaguars did little on the ground in Week 1, that probably says more about the Jags offense than the Texans defense, and last year even No. 2 running backs went off against the Texans on a regular basis.

For instance, in Week 10 — in a 10-7 game the Browns barely won at home — both Chubb and Hunt dominated the Texans.

Nick Chubb: 19-126-1 rushing | 0-0-0 receiving on 1 target
Kareem Hunt: 19-104-0 rushing | 3-28-0 receiving on 4 targets

The Browns have one of the best offensive line-vs.-defensive line matchups of Week 2: Chubb will get his, but so should Hunt.

Upside running backs for Week 2

Here are some running backs I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers (vs. New Orleans): McCaffrey is No. 1 in Jeff Ratcliffe’s Week 2 flex rankings. Over the past three-plus years, McCaffrey is No. 1 at the position with 28.3 DraftKings and 23.6 FanDuel points per game. In Week 1, McCaffrey had a position-high 12 high-value opportunities.

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings (at Arizona): Cook is No. 2 behind Christian McCaffrey with 24.0 DraftKings and 20.7 FanDuel points per game over the past two-plus seasons, and after the bye week last year he was an unholy 220-1,068-9 rushing and 32-297-1 receiving on 38 targets in his final nine games. Cook wasn’t highly efficient in Week 1, but he still had 104 yards and a touchdown thanks to his 20 carries and seven targets. Even in a losing effort, Cook is likely to get his touches.

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (at Carolina): In the first game of the post-Drew Brees era, Kamara had 20 carries and four targets — and that was in a 38-3 victory. If the game had been close, he could have had even more opportunities. Without Nos. 1-2 wide receivers Michael Thomas (ankle, PUP) and Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring, IR), the Saints are likely to continue to rely on Kamara. In his one game against the Panthers last year, Kamara was 14-83-0 rushing and 8-65-0 receiving on eight targets. Kamara has the top running back player rating in Kyle Murray’s Week 2 DFS Model.

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns (vs. Houston): Last year, Chubb was No. 1 among all starting running backs with a 17% gash rate for runs of 10-plus yards (per our Advanced Rushing Stats Tool), and then in Week 1 he went 15-83-2 rushing and 2-18-0 receiving on two targets. Chubb could benefit from a run-heavy game script as a home favorite, and the Texans defense last year was No. 29 with a 1.6% rush DVOA. Chubb is one of our top Yahoo DFS picks for Week 2.

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Dallas): Ekeler entered Week 1 with a hamstring issue, but he played through it and was a palatable 15-57-1 rushing. Ekeler had zero targets, which is concerning, but Ekeler should bounce back: In his eight full games last year with quarterback Justin Herbert, he had 834 yards and three touchdowns on 95 carries and 63 targets. The Chargers-Cowboys game has a slate-high total of 55.5 — I’m betting the over — and in a fast-paced back-and-forth points festival, Ekeler could see significant usage as a receiver.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (at Chicago): Before he suffered a season-ending foot injury last year, Mixon was the leader of the Bengals offense for Weeks 1-6 with 566 yards and four touchdowns from scrimmage on 199 carries and 26 targets. In Week 1, he picked up where he left off in 2020: Mixon had a position-high 29 carries as well as four targets, which he leveraged into 150 yards and a touchdown. Mixon won’t have a 55% share of his team’s opportunities each week, but with his overwhelming usage his matchup almost doesn’t even matter.

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (at LA Chargers): Elliott is a prime buy-low candidate. He had a tough matchup in Week 1 against a Buccaneers defense that last year was No. 1 with a -31.4% rush DVOA and No. 5 with a -16.1% pass DVOA against running backs (per Football Outsiders). Elliott is expected to get back All-Pro right guard Zack Martin (COVID-19), and he could find the end zone this week given the game’s high total. In our Week 2 fantasy football trade value chart, Elliott is still a top-five running backs.

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (vs. Cincinnati): Montgomery lost six carries and five targets to new change-of-pace back Damien Williams, but he was still 16-108-1 rushing against a tough Rams defense in Week 1. In the eight games since the Week 11 bye last year, Montgomery is 144-737-8 rushing and 25-236-1 receiving on 28 targets. This past week, the Bengals allowed 138 yards and a touchdown to running backs — primarily Dalvin Cook — with 22 carries and 12 targets.

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Tennessee): Carson was 16-91-0 rushing and 3-26-0 receiving on three targets in Week 1, and now he faces a Titans team that just allowed 38 points to the Cardinals. No. 2 back Rashaad Penny (calf) is out, so Carson could see some extra usage as the lead back. Seahawks -4.5 to -6 is one of my favorite bets of Week 2.

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (at Indianapolis): Henderson had an uber-elite 94% snap rate in Week 1 and accounted for 17-of-18 backfield touches on his way to 87 yards and a touchdown. Henderson likely has a floor of 12 weekly carries moving forward, and in his seven games with 12-plus carries he has averaged 89.4 yards and 0.71 touchdowns from scrimmage.

Damien Harris, New England Patriots (at NY Jets): Last week, Harris likely cost the Patriots a Week 1 victory with an untimely and uncharacteristic fumble inside the Dolphins 10-yard line, so we don’t know how he will be deployed in Week 2. But before his fumble Harris had a strong game with 23-100-0 rushing and 2-17-0 receiving on three targets. Harris especially dominated on carries up the middle. The spread has been bet from Pats -3.5 to -6, and Brooke Kromer is picking the Pats to win, so Harris could be the beneficiary of a run-leaning positive game script.

Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers (at Philadelphia): Mitchell is the most recent Shanahan back to come from nowhere, as he rushed for 104 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in Week 1 in relief of the injured Raheem Mostert (knee, IR), who is out for the year. A clear waiver wire target — he was No. 1 in Jeff Ratcliffe’s Week 2 waiver wire rankings — Mitchell has league-winning upside, as evidenced by his high FAAB allocations in both Nelson Sousa’s FAAB and waiver notebook and Vlad Sedler’s Week 2 FAAB strategy breakdown. I mean, even this donkey identified Mitchell as someone to prioritize on waivers. He could run wild in Week 2 and beyond.

To get all of Sousa’s analysis, check out his high-stakes fantasy package, which comes with coaching sessions and Sousa’s rankings.

Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Minnesota): Although James Conner got more carries than Edmonds (16 vs. 12) and closed out Week 1 for the Cardinals, Edmonds played ahead of the between-the-tackles grinder for most of the game and converted his 12 carries and four targets into 106 yards. The total for this game is hovering around 51, and in his eight games with an over/under of at least 50, Edmonds has enjoyed significantly more usage and production.

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts (vs. LA Rams): Last week, the Colts gave Hines a three-year, $18.6 million extension as well as nine carries and eight targets. For better or worse, they’re invested in him, and as home underdogs they might lean on Hines heavily as a receiver with a negative pass-inclined game script.

James White, New England Patriots (at NY Jets): In Week 1, White was 4-12-0 rushing and 6-49-0 receiving on seven targets, and last year he was No. 2 among all running backs — behind only Alvin Kamara — with a 12.7% share of first-read targets (per our Advanced Passing Stats Tool). To White, quarterback Mac Jones might as well be Tom Brady.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (at Jacksonville): Although veteran Melvin Gordon outproducEd Williams (118 yards, one touchdown vs. 41 yards), the two backs each played exactly 50% of the snaps in Week 1. Against a Jacksonville defense that last year was No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs with 31.2 DraftKings and 27.3 FanDuel points per game, Williams could have a breakout performance.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Minnesota): The Cardinals are home favorites, Conner had 16 carries for 53 yards in Week 1, and the Vikings just watched Joe Mixon put up 29 carries on them. It’s worth remembering that the 2018-20 version of Conner averaged 1,040.3 yards and 8.7 touchdowns from scrimmage in 12 games per year.

Freedman’s favorite wide receivers

Below, I take a look at my favorite wide receivers for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 2.

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Tennessee)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 5
Spread: -6
Total: 53.5

Last year the Titans were a top-three team in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers with 45.9 DraftKings points and 36.2 FanDuel points per game — and this year they have three new starting cornerbacks.

The food at this place is really terrible … and such small portions.

Evidently, replacing Adoree’ Jackson, Malcolm Butler and Desmond King with Janoris Jenkins, Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden is not the cure to what ails the Titans.

Last week, the Titans allowed a horrifying 17-246-4 receiving on 24 targets to Cardinals wide receivers and were No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to the position with 65.6 DraftKings and 57.1 FanDuel points.

This Titans defense is tantalizingly exploitable — and DK Metcalf is the type of big-bodied statistical bully to extract fantasy points from them. Against the Titans, Metcalf gets a big upgrade (per Jeff Ratcliffe’s WR/CB matchups breakdown).

Over his past 20 games — since the 2019-20 playoffs — Metcalf is 103-1,678-14 receiving. Last year, he was Nos. 3 and 4 in the league with 15 targets of 20-plus yards and 14 targets in the end zone (per our Deep Receiving Stats Tool and Advanced Receiving Stats Tool).

Metcalf — and I say this respectfully — is a monster.

In Week 1, he was a meh-tacular 4-60-1 receiving on just five targets, but quarterback Russell Wilson attempted just 23 passes. In Week 2, he’s likely to enjoy more targets, receptions, yards, and maybe even more touchdowns.

I am very much betting on the Seahawks this week: Head coach Pete Carroll is 54-38-3 against the spread for his career at home in Seattle. I expect the Seahawks to put up points against this nonexistent Titans defense.

I don’t see why some of those points shouldn’t flow to Metcalf, who is on the positive side of his splits in Seattle.

At home (16 games): 17.5 DraftKings points | 14.6 FanDuel points
On road (19 games): 13.9 DraftKings points | 11.1 FanDuel points

The Seahawks are No. 1 in our NFL Stacking Model, and Metcalf is one of David Jones’ “Tenacious Targets” for Week 2 DFS tournaments.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns (vs. Houston)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 85
Spread: -12.5
Total: 48

In a managed season-long format, you’re probably not starting Donovan Peoples-Jones unless your league and lineup are very deep, but he should be on the redraft radar, and he certainly warrants attention this week in DFS.

He has a number of factors in his favor.

First of all, wide receiver Odell Beckham (knee) is out, so Peoples-Jones has a chance to function as the No. 2 wide receiver within the Browns offense. Last week he was just 1-4-0 receiving on one target, but he played on 80% of the team’s offensive snaps and ran routes on 84% of the dropbacks.

Second, he has a great matchup against the Texans, who last year were No. 7 in most fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers with 41.4 DraftKings and 33.1 FanDuel points per game — and I don’t think they’re any better this year, especially after trading away former No. 1 cornerback Bradley Roby to the Saints last week.

In Week 1, despite facing a rookie head coach and rookie quarterback making their NFL debuts, the Texans still allowed Trevor Lawrence to pass for 332 yards and three touchdowns — and most of that (200 yards, one touchdown) went to the wide receivers, who collectively put up 42.0 DraftKings and 32.5 FanDuel points.

The Texans are a defense to target with receivers.

Third, Peoples-Jones is a DFS cost saver, especially on DraftKings, where he’s a min-priced $3,000 and certain to have a single-digit exposure rate.

A former five-star recruit who underproduced at Michigan under self-sabotaging head coach Jim Harbaugh, People-Jones has good size (6-foot-2 and 212 pounds) and athleticism (4.48-second 40-yard dash), and through 20 NFL games he has a big-play average of 14.1 yards per target, (339 yards on 24 targets, including playoffs). With his profile, Peoples-Jones looks like a second-year breakout candidate.

Upside wide receivers for Week 2

Here are some wide receivers I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Minnesota): In Week 1, Hopkins was 6-83-2 receiving on eight targets, and now he’s slated for a one-on-one matchup with the cornerback who used to be Patrick Peterson.

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills (at Miami): After leading the league last year with 1,535 yards receiving, Diggs disappointed in Week 1 with just 69 yards — but he still had nine receptions on 13 targets, and last year in two games against the Dolphins he was 15-229-1 receiving on 21 targets. Diggs has the No. 1 ceiling projection among all wide receivers in our new state-of-the-art NFL lineup optimizer.

Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (at Tampa Bay): Ridley has a tough matchup against perimeter corners Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean (the Bucs defense was No. 5 last year in pass DVOA). Even so, in Weeks 15 and 17 against the Bucs, Ridley put up 18-215-1 receiving on 26 targets. He had just 51 yards last week, but eventually Ridley will get his.

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (at Arizona): The Cardinals did well against the Titans last week, but Jefferson averaged 95 yards per game last year after moving to the perimeter in Week 3, he was a respectable 5-71-0 receiving on nine targets last week, and he’s likely to matchup most with cornerback Marco Wilson, a fourth-round rookie who allowed a 100% catch rate and 11.5 yards per target in his NFL debut.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Tennessee): Since his 2018 breakout season, Lockett has averaged an unholy 10.0 yards per target, and last week he balled out with 4-100-2 on five targets. Playing primarily in the slot, Lockett should benefit from a soft matchup against third-round rookie cornerback Elijah Molden. I expect to see more of this on Sunday.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Dallas): Last week, Allen was 9-100-0 receiving on 13 targets, and across his 12 full games with quarterback Justin Herbert he has averaged an unbelievable 12.4 targets per game. Chargers wide receivers vs. Cowboys cornerbacks is a matchup to target, and Allen in particular is one of Chris Meaney’s top NFL DFS picks.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans (at Seattle): Brown has a career average of 11.0 yards per target, and even last week in a down performance he still saw eight targets and found the end zone. Last year the Seahawks were a top-six team in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers with 45.1 DraftKings and 34.4 FanDuel points per game.

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys (vs. LA Chargers): Against a strong Buccaneers secondary last week, Cooper imposed his will with 13-139-2 receiving on 16 targets, finishing the week as the No. 1 wide receiver in expected fantasy points. In quarterback Dak Prescott’s five full games since last year, Cooper has averaged 13.6 targets per game, and since 2018 the Cowboys have offensively dominated in games with over/unders of at least 50.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers (at Philadelphia): Last week, teammate Brandon Aiyuk was reduced to a target-less part-time role, and Samuel went off for 9-189-1 receiving on 12 targets. That probably wasn’t a fluke: In his two games last year in which Aiyuk was either out or had no more than three targets, Samuel was 17-199-1 receiving on 19 targets.

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Atlanta): Godwin was a dynamic 9-105-1 receiving on 14 targets last week, and Falcons slot corner Isaiah Oliver allowed a 75.6% catch rate last year. In his two 2020 games against the Falcons, Godwin totaled 9-169-3 receiving on 12 targets. For DFS, the Buccaneers are a top team to stack.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (vs. LA Chargers): Lamb was 7-104-1 receiving on 15 targets last week and was No. 2 in the NFL with 14 first-read targets. He is turning into a true star and is one of Vlad Sedler’s core plays for SuperDraft in Week 2.

Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears (vs. Cincinnati): Robinson disappointed with 6-35-0 receiving last week, but he also had 11 targets, so at least quarterback Andy Dalton knows to throw the ball in his direction. The Bengals used cornerback Chidobe Awuzie to tail Justin Jefferson last week (per our 2021 Shadow Index), and we expect them to deploy him similarly this week, which is a hilarious thought: Last year, Awuzie allowed a dreadful 10.4 yards per target. He’s far from a shutdown corner.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Dallas): In Week 1, Williams had a career-high eight receptions, thanks in large part to his 11 first-read targets. Playing the “Michael Thomas X” role in offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s system, Williams might be a true 1A option to Keenan Allen this year. Per Nelson Sousa: “It’s looking like we are finally going to see a breakout season from Williams.” The Cowboys allowed 17-250-2 receiving on 28 targets to Buccaneers receivers last week. FTN is high on Williams relative to the consensus this week.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Atlanta): Evans had a flaccid 3-24-0 receiving performance last week, but he’s in a get-right spot against the Falcons, who last year were No. 1 in the league in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers with 47.3 DraftKings and 37.4 FanDuel points per game. The Bucs have a slate-high implied total of 32 points.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (at Indianapolis): To Kupp, all pocket passers look alike. Even without longtime BFF quarterback Jared Goff, Kupp was an efficient 7-108-1 receiving on 10 targets last week from Matthew Stafford — and the Colts just allowed 100 yards and two touchdowns to slot receiver Tyler Lockett. Kupp will likely be chalky (per Alex Blickle’s Week 2 single-entry lineup preview).

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (at Cleveland): Without Will Fuller (free agency), Randall Cobb (trade), and Keke Coutee (release), Cooks is the only proven wide receiver on the team. I have a 100-1 ticket on Cooks to lead the league in receiving, and in his five games since last year without Fuller he is 34-563-3 receiving on 48 targets. Cooks is a dynasty buy.

DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers (vs. New Orleans): Whether he was near the line of scrimmage or running deep last year, Moore was one of the top receivers on the left side of the field, and now he gets to face third-round rookie Paulson Adebo in his second NFL game. Moore is the only wide receiver in the league to have more than 1,200 yards from scrimmage in each of the past two seasons, and he had another 94 scrimmage yards last week. In two games against the Saints last year Moore was 9-194-2 receiving on 16 targets, and I love the matchup he has against the Saints without No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore (thumb).

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams (at Indianapolis): Woods was just 3-27-1 receiving on four targets and 1-7-0 rushing in Week 1 — but he has averaged 1,238.7 yards and 6 touchdowns from scrimmage over the past three years. The Colts just allowed the Seahawks — running a version of the Rams system under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron (2018-20 Rams passing game coordinator) — to pass for 254 yards and four touchdowns on just 23 attempts.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals (at Chicago): In the eight games last year from his Week 3 breakout to quarterback Joe Burrow’s Week 11 season-ending injury, Higgins was 40-594-4 receiving on 65 targets. He saw just five targets last week, but he maximized them with 4-58-1 receiving. Higgins has an advantageous matchup against fifth-round second-year cornerback Kindle Vildor, who is undersized (5-foot-11, 180 pounds) with just 164 NFL coverage snaps to his name.

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. San Francisco): The 49ers are without No. 1 cornerback Jason Verrett (knee, IR), so Smith will match up most on the perimeter with Deommodore Lenoir (a fifth-round rookie) and Emmanuel Moseley (a Week 1 healthy scratch). Smith is one of the rookies I’m betting on for 2021, and he was the No. 1 pass catcher for the Eagles in Week 1 with 6-71-1 receiving on eight targets.

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (at Chicago): In his first NFL game — in fact, his first official football game in over a year and a half — Chase was 5-101-1 receiving on seven targets. Last week, second-year cornerback Jaylon Johnson allowed 2-80-1 receiving on three targets. I don’t think he can hang with Chase, who is one of the highlighted players in Eliot Crist’s advanced matchups DFS breakdown.

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals (at Chicago): Special teamer-turned-slot corner Marqui Christian allowed 5-85-2 receiving on six targets last week, and Boyd is a middle-of-the-field technician with 122 targets and 996.7 scrimmage yards per year over the past three seasons.

Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills (at Miami): Beasley had just 60 scoreless yards in Week 1, but he also had eight receptions on 13 targets — 11 as the first read — and Dolphins slot cornerback Nik Needham allowed 9.1 yards per target last year.

Marquez Callaway, New Orleans Saints (at Carolina): Without Nos. 1-2 wide receivers Michael Thomas (ankle, PUP) and Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring, IR), Callaway was widely expected to be the top perimeter receiver for the Saints in Week 1, but he disappointed with just 1-14-0 receiving on two targets. Still, he led the team’s pass catchers with 21 routes and an 84% snape rate. Callaway is a post-hype bounceback candidate.

Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals (vs. Minnesota): Moore played just 20 snaps in his NFL debut, but he had five targets, which he converted into four receptions and 68 yards. As an 18-year-old true freshman, Moore tore up the Big Ten with 114-1,258-12 receiving and 21-213-2 rushing. Whether it’s now or later, the breakout is coming.

K.J. Hamler, Denver Broncos (at Jacksonville): Hamler had only a 36% snap rate last week, as the Broncos relied more on wide receiver Tim Patrick (70%) and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam (56%), but without teammate Jerry Jeudy (ankle, IR) Hamler should enjoy more playing time this week. Yes, he was just 3-41-0 receiving in Week 1 on four targets, and he did drop a 50-yard would-be touchdown — but let’s focus on the positive: He got open deep in the first place, and checkdown quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was willing to air it. Hamler has a strong matchup in the slot against rookie cornerback Tyson Campbell, who allowed 5-80-1 receiving on five targets in his first NFL game last week.

Cedrick Wilson, Dallas Cowboys (vs. LA Chargers): Starter Michael Gallup (calf, IR) is out, so Wilson is the No. 3 wide receiver for quarterback Dak Prescott. Wilson has inside/outside versatility, and on his 20 targets from Prescott since last year he is 15-187-2 receiving. You could do a lot worse.

Freedman’s favorite tight ends

Below, I take a look at my favorite tight ends for both fantasy football and DFS for Week 2.

Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders (at Pittsburgh)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 2
Spread: +6.5
Total: 47

One of the best weekly football pieces you can read is Derek Brown’s game-by-game DFS breakdown. It legit makes me jealous.

Here’s what he says about Darren Waller in this week’s piece:

“Darren Waller is in play any time he steps onto a football field. Waller commanded an insane 19 targets (33.9% target share) in Week 1 while playing 53.9% of his snaps in the slot or outside. Waller draws a difficult matchup against the Steelers, who ranked first in DVOA against the position last year. Pittsburgh allowed the second-fewest receiving yards (638) and the fewest receiving touchdowns (three) to opposing tight ends last season.”

Big picture takeaway: Waller is awesome, but his matchup is the opposite of awesome, as he’s likely to face back-to-back All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick for much of the game.

Even so, I’m not too concerned about the matchup. As Kyle Murray touches on in his Week 1 DFS review, having a premium tight end is foundational to DFS success — and Waller is the best tight end on the slate.

Last year, Waller — not Travis Kelce — was the No. 1 tight end with 1,309 air yards, 579 yards after the catch, a 28.6% target share, and 61.4% WOPR.

WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is a stat created by Josh Hermsmeyer. It combines market shares of targets and air yards.

And in Week 1 Waller was even more dominant with 203 air yards, 40 yards after catch, a 37% target share, and 82.1% WOPR.

Last year, Waller was No. 2 overall with a 34.3% market share of first-read targets, right alongside the top wide receivers in the league.

In Week 1, he surpassed them all with a league-high 16 first-read targets. Waller wasn’t incredibly efficient with them: He dropped two passes and managed just 5.5 yards per target. But with 10-105-1 receiving on 19 targets, Waller was unquestionably commanding.

Even in a tough matchup, Waller seems likely to produce.

Check out the FTN Network Las Vegas giveaway, which includes Raiders tickets, hotel, travel, and more.

Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (at Indianapolis)

Key numbers (at time of writing):

FTN Ranking: No. 10
Spread: -3.5
Total: 48

I love Tyler Higbee this week. His props all have five-star ratings in Jeff Ratcliffe’s Player Props Table, and his yardage prop of over 39.5 is one of my favorite props for Week 2: Higbee had a 100% snap rate last week and was 5-68-0 receiving on six targets. In his 12 regular-season games with a snap rate of at least 85%, Higbee has gone over 39.5 yards eight times.

Last year, the Colts defense was No. 4 in pass DVOA against tight ends, so the matchup is theoretically tough, but just last week the Colts allowed the Seahawks offense — overseen by Shane Waldron, the former passing game coordinator for the Rams — to endow its tight ends with 5-57-1 receiving on five targets.

If Higbee’s former running mate Gerald Everett and perennial injury concern Will Dissly can do that against the Colts, then Higbee certainly can.

As an every-down player, Higbee now finally might hit the ceiling we glimpsed at the end of the 2019 season, when he was 43-522-2 receiving on 56 targets over the final five games.

Upside tight ends for Week 2

Here are some tight ends I think will outperform expectations and whom I especially like as upside season-long and DFS tournament plays.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (at Philadelphia): Since 2018, Kittle is No. 2 behind only Travis Kelce at tight end with 16.5 DraftKings and 13.0 FanDuel points per game — and he’s No. 1 at the position with a 28% target share and 10.1 yards per target. Kittle was an efficient 4-78-0 receiving on five targets in Week 1.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (at Tampa Bay): As good as it is, the Bucs defense was No. 25 in pass DVOA against tight ends last year, and last week Pitts tied wide receiver Calvin Ridley with a team-high eight targets in his NFL debut. His 4-31-0 receiving production leaves something to be desired, but Pitts is unlike any other NFL tight end we’ve ever seen based on his draft capital (No. 4 pick), athleticism (4.44-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds), and college production (43-770-12 receiving in eight games last year as a 20-year-old true junior).

Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (at Jacksonville): Since he entered the league in 2019, Fant has been outproduced in targets (5.2 per game) and efficiency (7.7 yards per target) only by Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews. Phrased differently: Fant might be the No. 5 tight end in the league. He was 6-62-0 receiving on eight targets last week and might see more action without wide receiver Jerry Jeudy (ankle, IR). The Jaguars defense last year was No. 30 with a 25.5% pass DVOA against tight ends.

Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Dallas): Cook was 5-56-0 receiving on eight targets in Week 1, looking very much like the low-end fantasy TE1 who averaged 698.2 yards and six touchdowns receiving in 15.3 games per year over the four previous seasons. He has a great matchup against the Cowboys, who allowed Rob Gronkowski to go 8-90-2 receiving on eight targets last week. After Darren Waller, Cook is the No. 2 tight end in our Week 2 DFS Simulation Model.

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears (vs. Cincinnati): Kmet was No. 2 on the Bears last week with seven targets, which he leveraged into a decent 5-42-0 receiving performance. Kmet played well ahead of veteran Jimmy Graham (74% snap share vs. 20%) and is locked in as the No. 1 tight end for the Bears. Kmet is Chris Meaney’s featured “start” tight end in the Week 2 start/sit breakdown, sponsored by TopProp.

Check out my recent interview with TopProp CEO MIke Zavagno.

Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Tennessee): Everett saw just two targets in Week 1, but he played 72% of the snaps and was a salvageable 2-20-1 receiving. Last year the Titans defense was No. 32 with a 36.6% pass DVOA against tight ends.

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (at LA Chargers): The Cowboys tight ends have a tough matchup with All-Pro safety Derwin James, but Schultz — after his 63-615-4 receiving campaign in 2020 — had a 68% snap rate and six targets in Week 1. He, not Blake Jarwin, is the No. 1 tight end for the Cowboys. Schultz is one of our deep sleepers for Week 2.

Will Dissly, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Tennessee): Like Everett, Dissly has a great matchup. Unlike Everett, he has an established connection with quarterback Russell Wilson and was the more productive player in Week 1 with 3-37-0 receiving on three targets. As unreal as this might seem, Dissly has an incredibly explosive 9.7 yards per target for his career.

Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints (at Carolina): As sexy as teammate Juwan Johnson’s two touchdowns were, Trautman was the No. 1 tight end for the Saints in Week 1 with his 82% snap rate and team-high six targets. Without Nos. 1-2 wide receivers Michael Thomas (ankle, PUP) and Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring, IR), Trautman is our top streamer tight end for Week 2.

James O’Shaughnessy, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Denver): He’s no Tim Tebow, but last week O’Shaughnessy hit career-high marks with eight targets and six receptions and played 80% of the snaps. With that kind of usage, he’s a real pass-catching option within the Jaguars offense … for whatever that’s worth.