23 from ’23: Surprising Stat Leaders from the NFL Season

The 2023 season offered plenty of surprises in its traditional metrics. Jordan Love threw for 4,159 more yards and 32 more touchdowns than the man he replaced in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers. The 31-year-old Raheem Mostert led the league with 21 touchdowns, two more than he scored from ages 22 to 30. And fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua led a talented receiver class with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison and others with rookie records of 105 catches and 1,486 receiving yards.

But fantasy football perceptions tend to follow those traditional narratives. If you want to beat the market on potential sleepers and busts in 2024, you need to dig deeper. And with its tapestry of charting data, FTN makes that easy for subscribers. What follows are 23 leaderboards to celebrate the 2023 season that I pulled from our myriad tools and FTN Data API. And the surprising inclusions should put you on a path toward sharper fantasy decisions in 2024.

Turnover-Worthy Pass Percentage Trailers

I doubt many fantasy players have forgotten Will Levis’ four-touchdown debut, and they hopefully hold a healthy skepticism for his record of eight passing touchdowns in nine rookie starts. But for me, the major concern for Levis is his 5.9% turnover-worthy pass percentage. That was fourth worst among regular passers, but Levis threw a modest but deceptive four interceptions. Levis will need to make a more marked improvement in his sophomore season than many expect to clear the professional starter standard. He could do it — a lot of successful quarterbacks improved dramatically from their freshmen to their sophomore seasons. But I wouldn’t count on it, and I wouldn’t write off a potential Titans quarterback selection with their new coaching staff and the No. 7 draft pick.

Highlight Throw Leaders

As a fifth-round quarterback pick, Sam Howell always felt like a one-year starter. And the Commanders have an easy path to pivot with the No. 2 pick in a draft that many feel has two clear franchise quarterbacks. But the incumbent sophomore teased a better-than-backup potential with 27 highlight throws, fourth most and on a leaderboard full of established stars like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen and trusted first-time starters like C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love. He would need to cut his turnover-worthy pass percentage to stick. But Howell hopefully earned a chance to at least follow the Gardner Minshew career path.

Dropped Air Yard Trailers

Patrick Mahomes earned the bulk of the public attention for the drops he suffered this season, and he deserved that attention. Mahomes might have pushed for the MVP if his receivers had secured a few more catches and a few more wins with those catches. But Baker Mayfield lost 10 more air yards to drops than even Mahomes did, and he still enjoyed new career highs of a 64.3% completion rate, 4,044 passing yards, and 28 passing touchdowns. The Panthers fan in me expects some Mayfield regression in 2024. But Mayfield could easily offset some personal decline with better luck and better help from an improved Bucs receiver room. 

Broken Tackle Rate Leaders, RBs

Garrett Wilson was the most obvious victim of Aaron Rodgers’ Week 1 Achilles injury. But don’t overlook Breece Hall’s hardships. The former first-round back suffered an apparent regression from 5.8 rookie to 4.5 sophomore yards per carry on three times the volume and even drew some criticism for a perceived hunting of explosive plays at the cost of consistency. But Hall broke 23.8% of attempted tackles this season, the sixth highest rate among regular runners. His efficiency could rebound with better blocking and a better quarterback in 2024. And he could compete for the No. 1 fantasy scorer crown if he pairs an improved efficiency with his contributions as a receiver.

Broken Tackle Rate Leaders, Rookie RBs

Tyjae Spears missed my qualification for the overall broken tackle rate leaderboard. But the Titans rookie teased a top-10 potential with a 21.0% broken tackle rate on an even 100 carries. Tony Pollard proved the danger of assuming outlier small-sample efficiencies will continue as workloads increase. But Spears should have less hype with his fewer career accomplishments. And he should insulate himself from the likely growing pains of a rebuilding Titans offense with his proficiency as a receiver. Spears is a decent bet for a Rachaad White sort of Year 2 fantasy breakout.

Breakaway Yard Percentage Leaders, RBs

The 5-foot-9, 188-pound De’Von Achane drew Jamaal Charles scouting comps. It isn’t a surprise that he scored some explosive touchdowns as a rookie. But I think it was a surprise how much of his yardage came on breakaway carries of 15 or more yards. Achane racked up 54.3% of his 800 rushing yards on breakaway carries, nearly 14% more than Breece Hall in second place at his position. Achane has the speed and the Dolphins have the offensive to spur those explosive carries. But until he matches that standard in a healthier sophomore season, I would expect Achane to suffer some regression in his yards per attempt and touchdown rate.

Yards After Contact Per Attempt Leaders, RBs

With a 5-foot-9, 194-pound frame, Kyren Williams seemed destined for a professional receiving back role in the vein of James White. But Williams did not build his unexpected fantasy breakout on catches, alone. The sophomore back averaged 2.90 yards after contact per attempt, the fourth highest rate of regular running backs. And that makes him a much better bet to repeat his totals of 228 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns in 2024.

Yards Before Contact Per Attempt Leaders, RBs

D’Andre Swift enjoyed a breakout season in his first year with the Eagles in 2023, and he demonstrated the health that had previously held him back from fantasy RB1 potential. But even with career receiving lows of 49 targets and 214 yards, Swift likely owes a healthy share of his productivity to an Eagles offense that with Jalen Hurts and excellent run-blocking spurred his top two rate of 2.49 yards before contact per attempt. Swift’s predecessor Miles Sanders saw a similar top four rate of 2.78 yards before contact per attempt in his final Eagles season in 2022. And when that rate more than halved to 1.29 average yards before contact on a less talented Panthers team in 2023, Sanders saw his fantasy value crater. Swift may return to the Eagles and maintain his new fantasy standard. But if he leaves in free agency, pay extra mind to his new circumstances.

Stacked Carry Percentage Leaders, RBs

Josh Jacobs rushed for 1,677 yards combined in 2021 and 2023, barely more than his 1,653 yards in his All-Pro 2022 season. In light of those bookends, it would be easy to wonder whether that All-Pro outburst was the outlier. But I believe Jacobs’ circumstances changed more than his talent level. And that is easiest to see in the more than doubling of his stacked carry percentage from 16.2% in 2022 to 35.2% in 2023, the second highest rate at his position. With a Day 3 rookie in Aidan O’Connell at quarterback, defenses loaded the box to try to stop the more dangerous Jacobs. Without a top-10 draft pick, the rebuilding Raiders may not have an easy path to improved quarterback play. But even a modest upgrade could pay major dividends for Jacobs’ fantasy productivity.

Average Yards After Catch Leaders, RBs

James Cook saw an unremarkable 54 targets in his sophomore season. But the sophomore back saw his average jump from 2.8 targets per game in his first 10 games to 3.9 targets per game in his last 9 games, including his two playoff games. That latter rate would have Cook on a full-season pace for 66 targets, just shy of the totals of some standout receiving backs in Jahmyr Gibbs (71) and Tony Pollard (67). And Cook supported his extra receiving work with 9.0 average yards after the catch, tied for fourth highest among regular running back receivers. Cook is small for a typical bell-cow back at 5-foot-11 and 199 pounds, and I suspect he will continue to yield some red zone touchdown runs to his quarterback Josh Allen. But Cook can push for RB1 value with his explosiveness and his trending receiving volume.

Contested Catch Leaders, Rookie WRs

The last few seasons have changed the narrative of undersized receivers in the NFL, and so it’s little surprise to see Jordan Addison excel on a variety of professional routes after some other small, first-round receivers like DeVonta Smith and Garrett Wilson did in their rookie seasons. But Tank Dell is another level. The Texans rookie was a third-round pick. And he belies his nickname with a 5-foot-8, 165-pound frame that mirrors that of the infamously tiny Tutu Atwell. Dell is extremely fast and scored the bulk of his freshman touchdowns on downfield passes. But he also worked the middle of the field and snagged a bronze medal total of nine contested catches among rookie receivers. Expect some regression with his outlier explosive touchdown rate. But Dell showed the skills of a complete receiver and could continue to ascend with his inviable C.J. Stroud pairing.

Catchable Target Rate Trailers, WRs

Catchable target rate has an inverse correlation with average depth of target, and so one would expect a field-stretcher like Marquise Brown to rank near the bottom. But Brown’s 55.4% catchable target rate wasn’t near the bottom. It was an outlier low total. Perhaps the former first-round Raven would have rebounded with Kyler Murray in the second half if he hadn’t suffered his own heel injury. But hopefully healthy in 2024, Brown is an excellent bet for better production by way of better opportunities.

Catchable Target Rate Trailers, TEs

Kyle Pitts is the tight end version of Marquise Brown. He sees a dramatically deeper average depth of target than most other tight ends. But that hardly explained his outlier low 64.0% catchable target rate. I blame his uninspiring pair of Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback — Falcons receivers collectively saw the third-lowest catchable target rate this season. If the team finds a new passer for 2024, Pitts should bounce back. And with a new offensive playcaller, Pitts has the potential to return to his 1,000-yard rookie track.

Red Zone Pass Attempt Leaders

Matthew Stafford may have convinced a few fantasy players to buy a 2024 rebound with his run of 17 touchdowns in his last seven games, including his near-win over the NFC championship representative Lions. But Stafford also averaged an uninspiring 1.0 touchdowns over the first 11 weeks, and if anyone judges the veteran by his full-season total of 24 touchdowns, they will likely underrate him. Stafford threw the fourth-most red zone passes in 2023 but scored just the 11th most passing touchdowns. And it wasn’t for a talent-driven lack of success. Stafford just happened to yield an unsustainable total of 13 rushing touchdowns within 5 yards of the end zone to his running back teammates Kyren Williams, Royce Freeman, Darrell Henderson and Cam Akers. With better stolen touchdown luck in 2024, Stafford should return to his traditional QB1 standard.

Red Zone Carry + Target Leaders, QBs

Lamar Jackson isn’t built like his dual-threat contemporaries Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen, and so he likely won’t be tush-pushing or powering his way to their quarterback-record rushing touchdown totals. But Jackson still nearly lapped the rest of the field at his position with 32 red zone rushes, and he barely bested that field with a modest five rushing touchdowns. Jackson ran in seven touchdowns in both 2019 and 2020, his two previous fully healthy seasons. And while you shouldn’t bet that the Ravens veteran will match what was presumably an MVP season in 2024, Jackson has surprising room to improve in fantasy with better touchdown luck.

Red Zone Carry + Target Leaders, RBs

I spent a healthy chunk of last offseason explaining why Tony Pollard’s outlier explosive touchdown rate pointed to a likely lesser touchdown total in 2023. And I hope that prediction earned some trust for when I tell you that Pollard is now the best bet for a touchdown increase in 2024 — even if the Cowboys add a power back to complement him. Pollard’s modest six touchdowns on a silver medal total of 73 red zone carries netted him a ridiculous 10.15 expected touchdown shortfall. He could hemorrhage a third of those red zone carries and would still likely score more touchdowns. No other back with at least 47 red zone carries scored fewer than seven touchdowns.

Red Zone Carry + Target Leaders, WRs

Davante Adams wouldn’t be the first great receiver to fade on the wrong side of 30 years old. But while the veteran slipped from his near touchdown-per-game standard from the previous three seasons in 2023, he did not see fewer opportunities to score. No, Adams finished second at his position with 30 red zone targets, and that makes him an excellent candidate to score more in 2024 with better quarterback play — on the Raiders or elsewhere.

Red Zone Carry + Target Leaders, TEs

After he matched Rob Gronkowski with 10 rookie touchdowns, it’s difficult to temper expectations for Sam LaPorta in his sophomore season. His future-Hall-of-Fame predecessor jumped to 17 touchdowns in his second year. But LaPorta’s modest total of 16 red zone targets was tied for just fourth highest at his position. And while he may have room to grow in that respect, LaPorta is unlikely to convert on so high a percentage of his future red zone targets. Like with Tony Pollard from 2022 to 2023, I would bet on fewer LaPorta touchdowns next season.

Route Participation Rate Leaders, RBs

In the era of running back specialization, backs need to contribute as receivers to unlock RB1 potential. Six of the top 10 half-PPR running back scorers — Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Rachaad White, Kyren Williams, Breece Hall and Jahmyr Gibbs — were top 10 in route participation rate, as well. Three others — Alvin Kamara, Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler — were top 10 in 2021, 2022 or both. And the final member is rookie Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet landed in an unfriendly fantasy situation behind an elite rushing talent in Kenneth Walker, and that may only get worse without his run-oriented former head coach Pete Carroll. But Charbonnet teased the skill set that enables a future top tier fantasy productivity. And he may be off of 2024 radars after his time share and unlucky touchdown total.

Route Participation Rate Trailers, RBs

Najee Harris proved a lot of armchair scouts wrong with third straight 1,000-yard, 7-plus-touchdown season and a top 10 rate of 2.80 yards after contact per attempt in 2023. But while he should continue to see a healthy workload, the former first-round back may have suffered a permanent fantasy loss in a decline from a position-best 58.6% route participation rate in his rookie 2021 season to 35.3% and 27.3% rates the last two seasons. Harris is faster than his reputation, but he’s hardly quick-twitch. And since the Steelers have discovered an elusive receiving complement in Jaylen Warren, Harris seems likely to plateau at between 25 and 35 catches per season and sustain a lower RB2 fantasy ceiling.

Route Participation Rate Trailers, TEs

Trey McBride didn’t just play more after Zach Ertz injured his quad in Week 7. He played a completely different role. The sophomore tight end jumped from a meager 34.5% route participation rate the first seven weeks to an 84.4% route participation rate in Weeks 8-18 that was fourth highest at his position. Fantasy players may be tempted to value McBride by his full-season fantasy production per snap, but that would mislead. In his current and likely future role, McBride has and should see similar receiving opportunities as the best fantasy tight ends like Evan Engram (87.3%), Travis Kelce (81.3%) and Sam LaPorta (79.8%).

Yards Per Route Run Leaders, WRs

Nico Collins likely introduced himself to a bunch of casual football fans with 195- and 96-yard outbursts in Week 18 and in the Wild Card Round, both effective playoff games for a tightrope-walking Texans team. But if you think Collins was a two-week wonder or a beneficiary of late-season receiver teammate injuries, think again. Collins averaged 3.24 yards per route run this season, the second highest among regular wide receivers. And that rate lands him on a leaderboard almost exclusively with the best players at the position like Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown. If he isn’t already, Collins will be a real and a fantasy star.

Yards Per Route Run Leaders, TEs

Chigoziem Okonkwo demonstrated the risk of believing small-sample standout efficiencies. The Titans tight end made the necessary jump from 46 to 77 targets for a Year 2 breakout. But he also slipped from a position-leading 2.73 to a pedestrian 1.37 yards per route run and barely cleared the TE2 benchmark. Still, I’m ready to try again, especially since the 2023 small-sample YPRR tight end standout Will Mallory is unlikely to see the same inflated ADP. Mallory was just a fifth-round draft pick, and he’ll have competition for Colts tight ends snaps from Kylen Granson and a returning Jelani Woods. But the rookie has more than a small-sample efficiency to spur your fantasy interest. He also ran a class-leading 4.54-second 40 time at the 2023 combine. Tight ends are more difficult to predict than their running back and receiver counterparts. Fantasy standouts Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews were third-round picks, and George Kittle was a fifth-round pick. I wouldn’t suggest that Mallory will follow those giant footsteps. But he is worth a look, at least in dynasty formats where he is unlikely to cost more than a roster spot.