Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Fantasy football tiers are an extremely useful weapon in your draft day arsenal. But you may have noticed that there’s one big flaw with the tiers that you find throughout the fantasy industry: they’re often only based on individual positions. It’s very useful to see how players stack up against others at their position, but it doesn’t do you as much on draft day when you have to decide which player to draft across the fantasy positions.
To help you out here, I put together overall tiers that combine all four fantasy skill positions. The goal for these tiers is to show you when value drops off in your draft and to pinpoint which positions and players to target at each phase in your 2021 fantasy football drafts. This set of tiers is also a great compliment to my fantasy football draft board, which you can get access to in our 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Kit. Of course, don’t forget that you can also check out all of our fantasy football rankings and fantasy football projections.
Check out the other rankings tiers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Tier 1 – The Big 2
Christian McCaffrey
Dalvin Cook
The top two picks in fantasy drafts are easy right now. Running backs are at a premium in fantasy football and either of these two could finish as the No. 1 player at the position this year.
Tier 2 – Pick your poison
Alvin Kamara
Derrick Henry
Saquon Barkley
Jonathan Taylor
Ezekiel Elliott
After the top tier, you’re put to an interesting decision at pick 1.03. Do you go with a running back capable of scoring six touchdowns in a single game or one who can potentially top 2,000 rushing yards? Of course, Kamara has question marks at quarterback in New Orleans and Henry offers very little in the passing game. Barkley certainly comes with some major question marks after suffering significant injuries in each of the last two seasons. Like Henry, Taylor will be limited in that area and enters the season with a very short resume at the pro level. As for Elliott, he’s still a three-down back, but there is some question as to whether or not we saw signs of decline from him last season. There isn’t necessarily a right answer to the question, but it doesn’t seem likely that you’re going to be able to get away from running back in the first 6-7 picks this year.
Tier 3a – Elite potential
Nick Chubb
Cam Akers
Tyreek Hill
Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs
Aaron Jones
Travis Kelce
DeAndre Hopkins
Calvin Ridley
Najee Harris
If you get a pick in the latter part of the first round, you won’t likely have a shot at anyone from the top two tiers. But the good news is you’re all but guaranteed to get two players from this tier. In this group, you have five wideouts who have the potential to finish No. 1 at the position, the remaining four top-10 running backs and Kelce. While it’s certainly tempting to grab the elite tight end on the board, there’s a stronger case to be made for scooping running backs and wideouts from this tier, especially given how quickly running back thins out. As for tight end, you can expect Kelce to go in the first round this year. There’s no doubt he’s the cream of the crop at the position, but there’s still opportunity to grab value at tight end later.
Tier 4 – Slight value drop
Austin Ekeler
Antonio Gibson
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Joe Mixon
Darren Waller
DK Metcalf
Justin Jefferson
Keenan Allen
A.J. Brown
The point of tiers is to show the separation between players in fantasy rankings. Sometimes the difference between the No. 17 player and No. 18 player is much greater than the difference between the Nos. 18 and 19. We have that tier drop here, which will occur in the middle of the second round. Here we have four running backs at the in Ekeler, Gibson, Edwards-Helaire and Mixon, but all four come with their own sets of question marks. Given those questions, this range actually might be more appealing at wide receiver, as there are several options who have the potential to finish as top-10 options at the position. We also have Waller, who, like Kelce, could end up going slightly ahead of his tier value if your league goes tight end crazy.
Tier 5 – Value WR1s or RB2s
D’Andre Swift
J.K. Dobbins
Chris Carson
Miles Sanders
Michael Thomas
George Kittle
Terry McLaurin
Amari Cooper
Mike Evans
Running back is going to dry up quickly in your drafts. If you don’t have a second back by this portion of the draft, this is a solid range to grab one. Of course, there are no sure things in this group, but you have major upside candidates in Swift and Dobbins. Carson and Sanders don’t have as much juice, but both in a position where they could command heavy workloads. Of course, at the same time the high-end potential of wideouts like Thomas, McLaurin, Cooper and Evans make punting your second running back spot very tempting.
Tier 6 – RB thins out
Patrick Mahomes
Robert Woods
CeeDee Lamb
Josh Jacobs
Chris Godwin
Julio Jones
D.J. Moore
David Montgomery
Travis Etienne
Myles Gaskin
Mahomes comes in at the top of this board, but we all know he’ll be gone long before this point in our home drafts in 1QB leagues. There’s so much depth at the position that we can wait. But the depth at running back has already thinned out. We have lower ceiling options like Jacobs and Montgomery along with question marks in Etienne and Gaskin in this tier. Compare that to what we’re looking at with the wideouts in this range, and it’s a no brainer to lean wide receiver here.
Tier 7 – Upside WR territory
Diontae Johnson
Kyle Pitts
Josh Allen
Kyler Murray
Kenny Golladay
T.J. Hockenson
Cooper Kupp
Dak Prescott
Brandon Aiyuk
Ja’Marr Chase
Tee Higgins
With running back dried up, you’re going to start to see a lot of upside wide receivers going in the fourth and fifth rounds of your drafts. This is a prime spot to grab an upside guy like Johnson, Golladay, Aiyuk, Chase or Higgins. You’ll also notice three more quarterbacks in this tier. Like Mahomes, these three almost certainly won’t last this long in your drafts, but this is a good indication of where they should be valued relative to other quarterbacks based on their value over replacement at the position.
Tier 8 – Risk it for the biscuit
Adam Thielen
Lamar Jackson
Tyler Lockett
Kareem Hunt
Mike Davis
Chase Claypool
D.J. Chark
Javonte Williams
Trey Sermon
Odell Beckham
There’s no denying the risk in this tier, but there’s also some big-time potential for return on investment. Both Williams and Sermon may not start out the season as the No. 1 backs on their respective teams, but each has a chance to be difference makers down the stretch in their rookie seasons. At wideout, Claypool, Chark and Beckham are far from safe, but each has the ability to make big plays happen.
Tier 9 – The TE wheelhouse
Melvin Gordon
Mark Andrews
Dallas Goedert
Russell Wilson
Michael Carter
Logan Thomas
If you don’t grab one of the top five options at tight end, this is a great range to target the position. Sure, you may not see Andrews in this range, but Goedert and Thomas both come with high enough ceilings to give you plenty of bang for your buck at a position that is notoriously scarce.
Tier 10 – More WR upside
James Robinson
Damien Harris
Curtis Samuel
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Deebo Samuel
Tyler Boyd
Robby Anderson
Aaron Rodgers
Justin Herbert
Will Fuller
Brandin Cooks
Jalen Hurts
Matthew Stafford
There’s value up and down the board at wide receiver this year. Compared to running back, you simply have much more appealing options when you get into the middle rounds of your draft. In this tier, you’ll have a shot at upside with players like Curtis Samuel, Smith-Schuster, Deebo Samuel, Anderson, Fuller and even Cooks.
Tier 11 – The RB point of no return
David Johnson
Raheem Mostert
Leonard Fournette
Ronald Jones
Zack Moss
DeVonta Smith
Jarvis Landry
Laviska Shenault
Antonio Brown
DeVante Parker
Corey Davis
Michael Gallup
Tony Pollard
James Conner
A.J. Dillon
Mike Williams
Michael Pittman
Jaylen Waddle
Nelson Agholor
Gus Edwards
We’ve reached the final stop on the 2021 running back train. After this point in your drafts, you aren’t going to like your options. And you might not even like the options here. Of course, we do have some premium handcuffs in Pollard and Dillon. We could also try to roll the dice on Fournette or Jones with the hopes of landing whoever emerges as the lead back in Tampa. However, you might find your options at wideout more appealing in this range.
Tier 12 – Time to look at QB
Ryan Tannehill
Marvin Jones
Noah Fant
Darnell Mooney
Russell Gage
Cole Beasley
Tom Brady
Joe Burrow
Trevor Lawrence
Henry Ruggs
Jalen Reagor
T.Y. Hilton
Rondale Moore
As I noted above, quarterbacks go earlier in home leagues than they do in industry leagues. But that doesn’t mean you should draft your quarterback earlier. There’s going to be value at the position, so start looking in this range, which puts you at about the 10th round. If none of these guys are available, just keep stacking up value at wideout or running back.
Tier 12 – The TE zone
Robert Tonyan
Tyler Higbee
Mike Gesicki
Jonnu Smith
Evan Engram
Irv Smith
Hunter Henry
Rob Gronkowski
If history has taught us anything, it’s that there isn’t much difference among tight ends, once we get outside the top half-dozen or so. This group is very tightly bunched, and some of these guys won’t make it to the late rounds. If you don’t have one of the earlier tight ends, try to draft at the top of this tier. If you’re looking for a better backup, draft at the bottom of this tier.
Tier 13 –Late-round safe options
Matt Ryan
Kirk Cousins
Baker Mayfield
This isn’t the tier that will get you the “oohs” and “aahs” when you put their stickers on the draft board. But there are some solid options in this trio who will likely be available at a value. Of course, when it comes to low ceiling guys, just make sure you don’t have too many of them on your roster.
Tier 14a – High-ceiling late-round options
Trey Lance
Kenyan Drake
Mecole Hardman
Elijah Moore
Rashod Bateman
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Parris Campbell
Denzel Mims
Breshad Perriman
Christian Kirk
Daniel Jones
Latavius Murray
Rashaad Penny
Alexander Mattison
Tua Tagovailoa
There’s lots of upside to be had in the late rounds, especially at wide receiver. Players like Hardman, Moore, Bateman, Campbell and Mims are all very appealing options who you can get on the cheap. You can also take a swing for the fences at quarterback in this range with Lance, Fitzpatrick, Jones or Tagovailoa. You may also still have a crack at some handcuffs here.
Tier 14b – Low-ceiling late-round options
Nyheim Hines
Darrell Henderson
Jamaal Williams
Devin Singletary
Phillip Lindsay
James White
John Brown
Blake Jarwin
Sterling Shepard
J.D. McKissic
Tarik Cohen
Tevin Coleman
Unlike the first part of Tier 14, there just isn’t a lot of fantasy juice in this tier. It’s a good idea to let someone else in your league draft from this collection of low-upside running backs and tight ends.
Tier 15 – Last-round options
Tre’Quan Smith
Gabriel Davis
Justin Fields
Allen Lazard
Terrace Marshall
Rhamondre Stevenson
Jakobi Meyers
Chuba Hubbard
K.J. Hamler
Kenneth Gainwell
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jameis Winston
Cam Newton
Quintez Cephus
Kadarius Toney
A number of these guys likely won’t be drafted in regular-sized leagues. If you are going to choose from this group, remember that upside is more important than safety in the late rounds of your drafts.
