Fantasy Baseball 2024: ADP Market Watch (2/28)

Following recent articles examining player share diversification and KDS strategy and draft mapping, it’s time to turn back to players whose ADPs are rising or falling materially. This time, we will focus on NFBC Online Championship leagues, which are 12-team, 30-round contests with weekly FAAB and an overall component. The purpose of these articles is to ensure that our subscribers are not only aware of which players are rising and falling in ADP, but also understand why these changes are occurring so that potential market inefficiencies can be evaluated and exploited. Importantly, while this article focuses on OC ADPs, the reasons why players’ ADPs are rising or falling are relevant to all fantasy formats.

For this article, the “old” ADP data is taken from 17 OC drafts completed Feb. 2-17, and compared to the “new” ADP data from 11 OC drafts completed Feb. 18-24. To capture meaningful market trends, we examine ADP risers and fallers based on both number of picks and percentage movement.

Top ADP Risers by Number of Picks

The largest riser by number of picks was Byron Buxton. It’s not hard to figure out why. First, Buxton proclaimed that he was feeling healthy following offseason knee surgery. Then, the Twins announced that Buxton would be the team’s starting centerfielder, meaning that if all goes well, the UT-only Buxton could become OF-eligible by mid-April, boosting his fantasy value. Finally, if that was not enough to have his believers salivating, Buxton announced that his knee feels so good, he plans to steal about 30 bases.

In the 12-team format – and especially the OC where a material percentage of entry fees goes toward overall prizes – it makes sense to take some risks in search of upside, especially deeper into a draft, because if those gambles do not pay off, the replacement value of players available in FAAB is relatively high (at least in comparison to the 15-team format). Without question, a healthy Buxton’s upside is worth more than the old – or even the new – ADP. Before loading up on shares, however, fantasy managers are reminded that Buxton: (1) has played more than 92 games in a season only once, and that was in 2017; (2) missed more games than he played over the last there seasons; and (3) has never stolen 30 bases in a season (after swiping 29 bags in 2017, his next-highest season total is 14 in 2019). I suspect that if Buxton continues to stay healthy in spring training and steals a base or two, his ADP will continue to rise past my comfort level.

Johan Rojas is moving up in OC reserve rounds. As the offseason has worn on, it has become increasingly likely that Rojas will be the Phillies’ starting centerfielder. Brandon Marsh underwent knee surgery and while recent reports suggest he will be back by Opening Day, Marsh currently is slated to play left field to start the season. Philadelphia did acquire Whit Merrifield, but he has limited experience in center field and did not log a single inning there in 2023. The only question with Rojas is whether he will hit enough to keep the job long-term. His glove is elite and should buy him some time if struggling at the plate. He also is an elite base-stealer (14-for-15 in SB in his first 59 MLB games, 30 SB in 76 games at Double-A in 2023 prior to his call-up, 62 SB in 2022 over two levels). Rojas seems like a fine OC reserve round pick, particularly for managers feeling light in steals, although he also is a player I’d be inclined to move on from quickly if stolen bases are his only fantasy contribution. Managers can address a categorical deficiency later in the season; in the first few months, I recommend avoiding “one-trick ponies” and starting players that contribute to as many fantasy categories as possible.

The ADPs of two catchers — Elias Díaz and Tyler Stephenson — increased by nearly two rounds in this 12-team contest. Interestingly, there does not appear to be any market-moving news on either player. Rather, their higher ADPs reflect fantasy managers pushing them up to avoid being stuck with a lesser second catcher. While there are many ways to address the catcher position in fantasy, for OC teams I’d prefer to do no worse — and hopefully better — than Stephenson as my second catcher.

Jarren Duran also is climbing up draft boards. Boston manager Alex Cora expressed confidence recently that Duran, who has been the topic of offseason trade rumors, would be Boston’s leadoff hitter in 2024. Duran flashed improved skills in 2023, hitting .295 over 102 games, with 24 stolen bases in only 26 attempts. Notably, he hit .289 against left-handed pitchers, opening the door for a possible full-time role instead of the dreaded platoon. Our VDP Projections forecast Duran for 12 home runs and 23 stolen bases over 509 at bats, and, if leading off and remaining healthy, there may be upside to be mined. If needing speed, I think Duran is a reasonable option at the new price, but I’ll be jumping off here if his ADP continues to climb.

Top ADP Risers by Percentage

At the very top of the largest ADP risers by percentage is the Yankees’ Aaron Judge. I find it interesting that his new OC ADP has risen to 8.7, while his NFBC Draft Champions ADP for the same period is 11.25. Thus, OC managers are valuing Judge, and his immense power upside, more highly than DC managers. There only have been two pieces of potentially actionable news regarding Judge recently. First, the Yankees confirmed that Judge will start off hitting third this season, right after new teammate Juan Soto. The RBI opportunities for Judge this season could be enormous, although I actually think this news benefits Soto the most, because few hurlers will be electing to pitch around Soto to face Judge. Second, Judge was quoted recently as saying the big toe he injured last season will need “constant maintenance” throughout his career — hardly encouraging news as he transitions to the more demanding center field position. I have no issues with Judge’s new ADP, although am unsure if I would select him quite that high.

Next up on the list of largest ADP risers by percentage is Spencer Strider. There does not appear to be any recent, actionable news on Strider, and so I conclude that his higher ADP reflects the “normal” NFBC movement of starting pitchers up draft boards as the season approaches. In my recent ADP article, I predicted that Strider’s ADP would settle between 2 and 4 in Main Event drafts, and managers planning to draft OC teams should not be surprised if Strider’s ADP continues to climb from here (although quality starting pitching is less scarce in the 12-team format and so it is understandable if Strider’s ADP is higher in Main Events and other 15-team contests).

Shohei Ohtani’s ADP is climbing now, and this move seems related to increasing signs that he will be healthy and ready for Opening Day. While not pitching in 2024, fantasy managers (including me) have been fairly cautious on Ohtani coming off of elbow surgery, wondering if he would be ready to start the season and, if so, whether his awesome power would be present from Day 1. As managers remember, last season Bryce Harper returned earlier than expected from Tommy John surgery, but his power did not come back fully right away. I suspect that if Ohtani continues to hit preseason home runs, his ADP will climb even higher.

Evan Phillips’ ADP is on the rise, and there appear to be two related drivers at work here. First, as time passes, the likelihood that the Dodgers are going to trade for an established closer, such as Kenley Jansen, appears to be lessening. Second, manager Dave Roberts said recently that Phillips should get “the brunt” of save chances in the ninth inning (although he also declined to name Phillips as the team capital-C closer). Phillips has excellent skills; the only thing keeping his ADP below those of the upper tier of closers is a lack of certainty regarding his role. Fantasy managers who have not rostered Phillips recently should take a close look under the hood. He pitched full seasons in 2022-23, totaling 126 innings. While not predictive of future performance, Phillips has posted ERAs of 1.14 and 2.05, and WHIPs of 0.76 and 0.83, in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Our VDP Projections forecast 4 wins, 33 saves, 75 strikeouts in 65 innings, and stellar ratios (2.78 ERA and 1.06 WHIP). While he may not receive every save opportunity, the Dodgers look great on paper and there should be plenty of save opportunities for the team’s primary closing option. The only word of caution I’d offer is that while the likelihood of the Red Sox trading Jansen to the Dodgers appears lower now than a few weeks ago, it still is something greater than zero.

Shane Bieber’s ADP has climbed by about 10 spots recently. This move is in response to reports that Bieber worked with Driveline this offseason and his fastball velocity is up compared to 2023. The fact that Bieber — and other players — choose to work with Driveline (or similar organizations) in their offseason to improve their craft is encouraging and, I think, without downside. If liking Bieber, the prospect of increased velocity closer or equal to levels he had when posting ace-like seasons may be worth pushing him up a little. Fantasy managers should bear in mind, however, that flashing higher velocity in bullpen sessions or short spring training outings is a far cry from being able to maintain velocity gains over the grind of a six-month season. Thus, while I have no qualms about moving Bieber up rankings based on the prospect of improved velocity and performance, the probability you assign to those velocity gains lasting should guide just how aggressively you move him up those rankings.

Top ADP Fallers by Numbers of Picks

By far the biggest fallers in ADP, based on both number of picks and percentage movement, are Kyle Bradish and Kodai Senga. Both pitchers suffered injuries that will delay their 2024 seasons, potentially by substantial amounts. Bradish was diagnosed with a UCL sprain in his right elbow, an injury that could require Tommy John surgery if it becomes a partial or full tear. Bradish received an injection of platelet-rich plasma and recently resumed a throwing program on flat ground. Subsequent reports from the Orioles have been cautiously optimistic about Bradish’s recovery, but there is no specific timetable for his return, and he will start the season on the IL. Senga recently was diagnosed with a posterior capsule strain in his right shoulder and will open the season on the IL. Like Bradish, Senga received a PRP injection and will be shut down for a period of three weeks after which, if feeling well, he would begin a throwing progression and start a six-week ramp-up similar to spring training.

The news on Bradish and Senga is very disappointing, and now fantasy managers will need to determine what level of interest, if any, they still have in both pitchers. Unfortunately, when it comes to pitchers, the scariest injuries are ones to throwing elbows and shoulders. The one consideration I always harp on when it comes to injuries is that managers not only need to factor in the amount of time the player is expected to miss (which often turns out to be longer than expected), but also an increased level of uncertainty regarding their effectiveness when they do return. In an OC league, a case can be made for drafting these talented pitchers and, depending on updated diagnoses, then determining whether to stash or cut bait in the first FAAB period. That noted I am not sure I would venture anything but a late-round reserve pick on either player based on the news available currently.

The decline in José Leclerc’s ADP is related to the Rangers’ acquisition of David Robertson and manager Bruce Bochy’s recent statement that “there is no pecking order” between Leclerc and other members of the team’s bullpen. Given Leclerc’s strong finish as Texas’ closer, including three scoreless appearances in the World Series, I expect Leclerc to receive the first shot at the role. Fantasy managers are reminded, however, that Leclerc has been very inconsistent throughout his career, and the Rangers not only have Robertson but also Kirby Yates and Josh Sborz in their bullpen. Thus, if Leclerc is shaky in spring training or early in the season, the Rangers easily could go in a different direction.

Carlos Estévez is experiencing an ADP decline for a similar reason, triggered by the Angels’ signing of free-agent Robert Stephenson, who is coming off a dominant 2023 season. Unlike Leclerc’s situation, however, Angels manager Ron Washington already has named Estévez as the team’s closer to start the season. While that pronouncement seemingly eliminates role uncertainty as of Opening Day, I suspect many fantasy managers prefer Stephenson’s skills to those of Estévez and are expecting the Angels to make a change at closer sooner rather than later.

Next, recent news stories are sounding increasingly pessimistic about Kyle Manzardo, Jordan Lawlar and Junior Caminero making their respective teams out of spring training. Such stories presumably are responsible for those players’ recent ADP declines. Reports out of Cleveland have pegged Josh Naylor to be the Guardians’ primary first baseman, and there apparently is some concern about how difficult it is to hit in Cleveland in April and that cold-weather conditions could hurt the confidence of a young hitter like Manzardo. Arizona manager Torey Lovullo has declared that Geraldo Perdomo will be the Diamondbacks’ starting shortstop and with the team’s recent acquisition of Eugenio Suárez to play third base, it may take an injury in the infield for Lawlar to make the Opening Day roster. Finally, reports out of Tampa Bay similarly expect Caminero to start the season in Triple-A to gain experience. Caminero still is only 20, and while he got a taste of MLB last season, that primarily was due to injuries and Wander Franco being placed on the restricted list. The Rays have Isaac Paredes slotted to play third base, and recently traded for José Caballero and signed Amed Rosario, both of whom can play shortstop, and Taylor Walls is an option there as well when he is fully recovered from offseason hip surgery. Thus, Tampa Bay appears set to open the season without Caminero on the Opening Day roster.

Out of Manzardo, Lawlar and Caminero, the only one I’d look to stash right now is Caminero. While there are no guarantees, I can foresee Manzardo and Caminero forcing their way onto their respective teams early in the season, in late April or early May. I am less confident that Lawlar will do so. While Lawlar is an elite prospect, Perdomo is only 24 and — how quickly we forget — was an All-Star in 2023. Perdomo is not going to block Lawlar when he’s ready. With Perdomo and Suarez manning the left side of the infield, however, the Diamondbacks do not need to rush Lawlar’s development and, with only 16 games under his belt at Triple-AAA, Lawlar perhaps could use further development given his struggles during last season’s accelerated promotion. Between the other two players, I think Caminero is the best prospect and has a much higher upside than Manzardo. Last season, Caminero, who turned 20 in July, hit 31 home runs and batted .324 in 117 games across two levels, ending in Double-AA before a very brief call-up at the end of the season. Manzardo turned 23 in July and while he had a fine season (17 home runs and a .242 average in 94 games at Triple-AAA), he did not rake like Caminero. Because the replacement level of players in FAAB in the OC contest is much stronger than in 15-team leagues, fantasy managers can – and should – make some upside picks, particularly late in drafts, knowing that selections that fail to pan out easily can be replaced. Caminero is a dart throw that I think can pay off handsomely if he’s called up early. Importantly, a lot can change between now and Opening Day and managers should monitor spring training news. For instance, I do not think it is beyond the realm of possibilities that Caminero has a strong spring training and forces the Rays to include him on the Opening Day roster. In fact, while less likely, Lawlar could do the same.

Top ADP Fallers by Percentage

Among the surprising ADP decliners on a percentage basis are Mookie Betts and José Ramírez. Of course, in their cases, the large percentage declines are really only a few draft spots. It is tough to imagine Betts’ draft stock declining after his 2023 season — 39 home runs, 126 runs, 107 RBIs, 14 stolen bases and .307 average — especially when he’ll now be hitting in front of both Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. But pitching is moving up, and if Spencer Strider is going to creep up the draft board, one or more hitters will fall, and it appears that Betts is slipping a little due to Strider’s ascendancy.

Ramírez had a solid if unspectacular 2023 season: 24 home runs, 87 runs, 80 RBIs, 28 stolen bases and .282 average. His ADP decline reflects being bypassed in drafts by a recovering Shohei Ohtani, Gerrit Cole and Matt Olson. At this point, I would not expect Betts or Ramirez’s ADP to move much in either direction and, importantly, managers liking either or both players should continue to draft them with confidence. Both hitters represent compelling options at their respective ADPs.

Shane Baz and Walker Buehler are experiencing ADP decline due to medical reasons. Baz underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2022. Now approximately 18 months removed from the procedure, there was an expectation that Baz, while likely to be innings-limited, would be part of Tampa Bay’s rotation from the start of the season. The Rays, however, announced recently that Baz would be brought along slowly, and will start the season in extended spring training before beginning a rehab assignment. There even has been speculation that Baz may not pitch in MLB games before sometime this summer, a much less optimistic outlook than fantasy managers had been expecting. While Baz’s long-term upside may be as high as a future ace, he has yet to experience prolonged success in the majors and, for that reason, I would not consider him worthy of what could be a long-term stash in OC leagues or any format with limited bench spots.

Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery in August 2022, a month or so before Baz, and there had been hope that he would begin the year in the Dodgers’ rotation. That hope was dashed, however, when the team announced that Buehler would not start the season on the active roster, and he now appears unlikely to pitch in the majors before mid-May, at the earliest. Buehler had tried to ramp up for a possible playoff appearance at the end of the 2023 season but ultimately was shut down. The latest report from the team is that Buehler is still “searching” for consistency in throwing bullpens. Given this outlook, I would expect Buehler’s ADP to continue to fall, as a mid-May debut may be a best-case scenario. At this point, I think I’m staying away. In OCs, a lot of players emerge in the beginning of the season that warrant rostering and the seven bench spots are too valuable to devote to someone who has not pitched since June 2022, will miss at least the first six weeks of the season and possibly longer, may require multiple starts before being allowed to pitch long enough to qualify for wins when he does return, and may struggle to regain his former performance levels.

Finally, Dylan Cease’s ADP has been slipping recently. The only news relating to Cease is the passage of time, and the fact that he remains in Chicago. The subject of trade rumors all offseason, it appears that the White Sox’s asking price is too high for other teams and he’s staying put for now. Absent a trade, Cease will pitch in a hitter’s park for a likely cellar dweller. Fantasy managers have been wishing for a trade, and the ADP decline reflects the likelihood that a trade may not happen until, maybe, mid-season. Cease remains a strong source of strikeouts but beware of the walks. VDP Projections peg Cease at 12 wins, a robust 219 strikeouts in 185 innings, and an ERA and WHIP of 3.79 and 1.26, respectively. Still a fine combination of stats, but managers investing in Cease may be at a disadvantage in WHIP depending on the rest of their pitching staff.