Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 16

The NFL’s spillover to Saturday football is a signal that the real playoff races are reaching their climax. But the fantasy playoffs are in full swing as well, and my Week 16 start and sit column can help you bring your championships home. The column’s leaning on my comprehensive weekly fantasy projections that rank players and provide discrete fantasy values helps you set your lineups with confidence no matter your format or depth of fantasy league. Read on for some advice on those tricky final lineup decisions.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 16

Quarterbacks

6. Baker Mayfield, TB at DAL: 32.5-254-2.02-0.98 and 2.4-14-0.10 = 18.2
7. Matthew Stafford, LA at NYJ: 34.0-263-2.00-0.51 and 1.4-2-0.03 = 17.9
8. Sam Darnold, MIN at SEA: 30.4-252-1.95-0.79 and 3.1-11-0.08 = 17.8

9. Jared Goff, DET at CHI

 31.4-268-1.80-0.69 and 1.9-4-0.07 = 17.3

Goff has been the No. 2 fantasy quarterback the last three weeks with a ridiculous 998 yards and 10 touchdowns. But the veteran passer also played all three of those games at home in Detroit, and Goff has averaged 6.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his Lions tenure. That’s easily the most extreme split among current starting quarterbacks. Goff is too productive to bench in fantasy at this point. But I wouldn’t assume his hot streak since Thanksgiving is here to stay.

10. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. SF

37.4-272-1.80-0.75 and 1.3-4-0.02 = 17.1

Tagovailoa had a disastrous fantasy week with 196 passing yards, one touchdown and three interceptions last Sunday in Houston. But the silver lining of that letdown was that Tagovailoa threw 40-plus passes for the fourth straight game. The Dolphins offense isn’t scoring from all over the field like they did in 2023. But Tagovailoa has counterbalanced some of that loss of explosiveness with a 57.0% passing success rate that is the highest among regular quarterbacks. And most weeks, that conservative approach will lead to more yards after the catch and fewer interceptions than he saw on Sunday. I would stick with Tagovailoa in fantasy this week.

11. Jordan Love, GB vs. NO

29.7-247-1.78-0.86 and 1.9-6-0.11 = 16.5

Love’s circumstances haven’t changed since I labeled him a fantasy QB2 last week. The Packers have increasingly leaned on their rushing offense as the weather has cooled in the second half of the season. Josh Jacobs leads running backs with 12 carries inside the 5-yard line since Week 8. And that preference is costing Love touchdowns he was throwing in September and October. But Love earns a QB1 promotion thanks to Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury and Jameis Winston’s benching this week. The position does not have the depth that it did a few weeks ago.

12. Russell Wilson, PIT at BLT

30.1-242-1.60-0.48 and 3.2-6-0.13 = 16.5

It’s easy to zoom in on Wilson’s precipitous decline from 414 yards and three touchdowns in Week 13 to his 286 yards and three touchdowns combined in Weeks 14 and 15 and conclude that Geoge Pickens is the keystone to the Steelers offense. But Wilson’s ebbs and flows have other culprits, too. The Steelers built a multi-touchdown lead over the Browns by the early third quarter and could comfortably restrict Wilson to 26 pass attempts. And the team’s Eagles opponent ranks fourth in pass defense and third in overall defensive DVOA. Even if Pickens misses another week, expect Wilson to regress positively toward his full-season average numbers this week.

13. Brock Purdy, SF at MIA

30.3-253-1.39-0.70 and 2.7-13-0.14 = 16.4

Purdy has taken fantasy players on a roller coaster from 94 yards and no touchdowns in Week 13 up to 325 yards and two touchdowns in Week 14 and then back down to 142 yards and an interception in Week 15. I think there are factors that share the blame for those recent downturns. Purdy had to play Week 13 in the snow in Buffalo. And last week’s letdown came on short rest Thursday night. But Purdy is still a difficult player to trust in the fantasy playoffs. You likely have a better option.

14. Kyler Murray, ARZ at CAR

31.0-224-1.18-0.59 and 4.0-29-0.13 = 16.2

Murray had traditionally run less and less effectively in second halves than in first halves of seasons in his career. And he has continued that trend this year, slipping from averages of 4.8 rushing attempts and 39 rushing yards from Weeks 1 to 9 to 4.0 attempts and 21 yards since Week 10. His Panthers opponent may have a bottom three pass defense by DVOA. But you can’t count on Murray to excel as a runner this week, and that is a critical piece of his fantasy value proposition. I would leave him in your fantasy benches.

15. Drake Maye, NE at BUF: 33.3-226-1.40-1.03 and 3.5-30-0.10 = 16.1
16. Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. HST: 35.9-240-1.83-0.79 and 1.1-6-0.02 = 16.0
17. Justin Herbert, LAC vs. DEN: 31.5-234-1.29-0.22 and 2.9-12-0.07 = 15.7
18. Bo Nix, DEN at LAC: 33.6-214-1.41-0.81 and 4.3-19-0.19 = 15.6
19. Caleb Williams, CHI vs. DET: 32.9-208-1.28-0.36 and 4.1-25-0.05 = 15.5
20. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ vs. LA: 35.0-234-1.65-0.56 and 1.2-6-0.01 = 15.5
21. C.J. Stroud, HST at KC: 33.2-236-1.30-0.63 and 3.1-13-0.06 = 15.0
22. Anthony Richardson, IND vs. TEN: 27.8-185-0.89-1.06 and 6.8-39-0.37 = 15.0
23. Michael Penix Jr., ATL vs. NYG: 35.8-249-1.40-0.93 and 1.8-7-0.06 = 14.7
24. Geno Smith, SEA vs. MIN: 34.5-258-1.10-0.93 and 1.9-9-0.07 = 14.2
25. Mason Rudolph, TEN at IND: 33.7-230-1.31-0.91 and 2.1-10-0.06 = 14.0

Running Backs

13. Brian Robinson Jr., WAS vs. PHI: 17.0-75-0.73 and 1.9-1.5-13-0.06 = 14.3
14. Jonathan Taylor, IND vs. TEN: 18.6-82-0.69 and 2.0-1.3-10-0.05 = 14.3
15. Isaac Guerendo, SF at MIA: 16.1-81-0.53 and 2.3-1.9-14-0.06 = 14.0
16. Rico Dowdle, DAL vs. TB: 17.4-87-0.30 and 2.7-2.1-14-0.10 = 13.4
17. Kenneth Walker III, SEA vs. MIN: 14.3-54-0.59 and 3.8-3.2-23-0.10 = 13.4
18. Alvin Kamara, NO at GB: 11.3-47-0.33 and 6.0-4.6-37-0.12 = 13.3
19. Bucky Irving, TB at DAL: 11.3-63-0.44 and 3.0-2.8-22-0.07 = 13.0
20. Tony Pollard, TEN at IND: 17.6-75-0.37 and 3.5-2.6-16-0.06 = 13.0
21. James Cook, BUF vs. NE: 12.4-60-0.50 and 2.7-2.2-18-0.09 = 12.4
22. Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG at ATL: 13.1-60-0.34 and 3.9-2.7-20-0.07 = 11.8
23. Najee Harris, PIT at BLT: 15.5-60-0.45 and 2.5-2.0-16-0.05 = 11.5
24. D’Andre Swift, CHI vs. DET: 15.0-58-0.41 and 2.3-1.9-16-0.04 = 11.1
25. Isiah Pacheco, KC vs. HST: 13.8-58-0.44 and 2.2-1.9-12-0.06 = 11.0
26. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at BUF: 14.0-54-0.48 and 2.7-2.2-12-0.09 = 11.0
27. Rachaad White, TB at DAL: 9.7-41-0.26 and 3.0-2.7-21-0.17 = 10.1

28. Jerome Ford, CLV at CIN

11.3-54-0.22 and 3.2-2.6-16-0.07 = 10.0

With Nick Chubb exiting early in the third quarter with a broken foot, Ford dominated other active Browns back Pierre Strong Jr. with a 58% versus a 10% snap share in Week 15. The team will likely activate early-down alternative D’Onta Foreman this week. But Ford consistently lapped Foreman in snap share and touches earlier this season before Chubb had made his return from his 2023 knee injury. I am projecting Ford for a 46.5% carry share that ties him for 26th highest at his position in Week 16. And I would start him at flex with confidence.

29. Javonte Williams, DEN at LAC

10.7-38-0.36 and 3.7-2.8-18-0.06 = 9.6

With Jaleel McLaughlin rule out for Thursday’s Chargers clash, I am projecting Williams and Audric Estime for 40.5% versus 24.5% carry share and 11.5% versus 5.5% target share splits. The former rates rank 33rd and 14th among running backs in Week 16 and land Williams back-end flex value.

30. Alexander Mattison, LV vs. JAX

11.8-41-0.41 and 2.4-1.9-16-0.07 = 9.6

Mattison saw modest totals of seven carries, 21 yards and a 33% snap share Monday night even after his teammate and new starter Sincere McCormick suffered an early ankle injury. But the Raiders played close to three quarters down a touchdown or more to the Falcons. Las Vegas may not be the best bet to enjoy positive run scripts. But my 53.5% projected carry share — assuming McCormick is out — will look a lot better for fantasy if the Raiders see even my third-lowest projected total of 22.1 rushing attempts this week, especially facing a Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd in defensive DVOA.

31. Travis Etienne Jr., JAX at LV

9.5-39-0.28 and 3.6-2.8-18-0.07 = 9.1

Etienne and his backfield teammate Tank Bigsby have enjoyed a healthy overlap the last three weeks. And that time has made it clear that the former player remains the preferred Jaguars back. Etienne has out-snapped Bigsby 126 to 85 and out-touched him 42 to 38 over that recent period. And Etienne has tripled Bigsby up with 12 versus 4 targets the last three weeks, which is critical to his fantasy flex case since Jacksonville tends to trail in games and skew their play-calling from the run to the pass.

32. Jaylen Warren, PIT at BLT

8.0-35-0.18 and 3.8-3.0-22-0.08 = 8.7

The Steelers’ limited pass play totals the last two weeks have likely cost Warren some targets that he could regain against the Ravens this week. But the versatile back slips from his traditional flex ranking perch because his carry share has declined, as well. Warren’s 20.5% share since Week 13 ranks just 48th among running backs.

33. Breece Hall, NYJ vs. LA

9.5-40-0.25 and 2.7-2.0-18-0.07 = 8.7

The Jets backfield is a bit of a mystery this week. Hall played just 48% of snaps because of his lingering knee injury in Week 15, barely half of his typical 70-85% standard from his healthy first 12 weeks of the season. And normal backup Braelon Allen was in and out of last week’s lineup with a back injury, and interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich implied to reporters that Allen was less likely to play in Week 16. For now, I’m projecting a three-back Jets time share that makes all three players unappealing for fantasy this week. But keep an eye on the news later this week. An Allen absence could push Hall above the flex benchmark.

34. Ameer Abdullah, LV vs. JAX: 6.8-28-0.20 and 3.5-3.0-18-0.15 = 8.2
35. Kareem Hunt, KC vs. HST: 10.1-37-0.41 and 1.9-1.4-10-0.06 = 8.2
36. Tank Bigsby, JAX at LV: 10.1-49-0.35 and 1.1-0.8-6-0.02 = 8.2
37. Gus Edwards, LAC vs. DEN: 11.8-44-0.45 and 0.8-0.6-5-0.02 = 7.9
38. Zach Charbonnet, SEA vs. MIN: 6.4-28-0.29 and 3.0-2.4-17-0.05 = 7.7
39. Tyjae Spears, TEN at IND: 5.4-21-0.15 and 3.4-2.8-21-0.09 = 7.0
40. Justice Hill, BLT vs. PIT: 3.2-14-0.08 and 3.6-3.0-27-0.13 = 6.9
41. Antonio Gibson, NE at BUF: 6.0-27-0.13 and 1.8-1.5-13-0.04 = 5.8
42. Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. NYG: 6.8-32-0.22 and 0.9-0.8-6-0.02 = 5.6
43. Raheem Mostert, MIA vs. SF: 4.8-20-0.20 and 2.0-1.6-12-0.06 = 5.5
44. Kendre Miller, NO at GB: 6.6-29-0.17 and 1.5-1.1-8-0.03 = 5.4
45. D’Onta Foreman, CLV at CIN: 7.3-28-0.23 and 0.8-0.6-4-0.02 = 5.0
46. Ty Johnson, BUF vs. NE: 1.8-8-0.05 and 2.4-1.8-22-0.11 = 4.8
47. Audric Estime, DEN at LAC: 5.7-25-0.14 and 1.4-1.1-8-0.04 = 4.8
48. Kimani Vidal, LAC vs. DEN: 5.9-22-0.14 and 1.5-1.1-9-0.04 = 4.8
49. Devin Singletary, NYG at ATL: 5.1-21-0.15 and 1.5-1.2-8-0.03 = 4.6
50. Braelon Allen, NYJ vs. LA: 5.6-21-0.14 and 1.4-1.0-8-0.03 = 4.4
51. Cam Akers, MIN at SEA: 7.4-29-0.19 and 0.3-0.2-2-0.01 = 4.3
52. Roschon Johnson, CHI vs. DET: 4.0-14-0.21 and 1.4-1.1-8-0.03 = 4.2
53. Craig Reynolds, DET at CHI: 6.0-25-0.16 and 0.6-0.5-3-0.01 = 4.1
54. Isaiah Davis, NYJ vs. LA: 3.9-17-0.11 and 1.2-0.9-7-0.04 = 3.7
55. Cordarrelle Patterson, PIT at BLT: 3.3-14-0.08 and 1.3-1.0-7-0.03 = 3.3
56. Ray Davis, BUF vs. NE: 4.1-17-0.12 and 0.6-0.5-5-0.02 = 3.2

Wide Receivers

13. Drake London, ATL vs. NYG: 9.5-6.3-74-0.52 = 13.7
14. CeeDee Lamb, DAL vs. TB: 9.5-6.2-72-0.42 = 13.4
15. Jauan Jennings, SF at MIA: 8.3-5.6-76-0.48 = 13.3
16. Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. DEN: 8.0-5.7-79-0.37 = 13.0
17. Courtland Sutton, DEN at LAC: 9.0-5.3-70-0.52 = 12.7
18. Tee Higgins, CIN vs. CLV: 8.3-5.1-69-0.53 = 12.7
19. Jerry Jeudy, CLV at CIN: 8.4-5.3-79-0.32 = 12.5
20. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. JAX: 8.9-6.0-68-0.32 = 11.9
21. Jordan Addison, MIN at SEA: 6.8-4.5-66-0.47 = 11.9
22. DJ Moore, CHI vs. DET: 8.3-5.6-56-0.39 = 11.8
23. Cooper Kupp, LA at NYJ: 8.5-5.7-60-0.46 = 11.7
24. Tyreek Hill, MIA vs. SF: 8.1-5.3-65-0.42 = 11.7
25. DeVonta Smith, PHI at WAS: 6.8-5.1-63-0.39 = 11.3
26. Zay Flowers, BLT vs. PIT: 7.3-4.8-65-0.31 = 10.9
27. Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. NE: 7.0-5.7-62-0.29 = 10.8
28. Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. LA: 8.3-5.3-58-0.38 = 10.8
29. DK Metcalf, SEA vs. MIN: 7.1-4.4-64-0.33 = 10.6
30. DeAndre Hopkins, KC vs. HST: 6.6-4.6-54-0.48 = 10.6
31. Adam Thielen, CAR vs. ARZ: 7.1-5.2-60-0.31 = 10.5
32. Jayden Reed, GB vs. NO: 4.9-3.7-52-0.31 = 10.0
33. Calvin Ridley, TEN at IND: 7.8-4.0-57-0.31 = 9.9
34. Keenan Allen, CHI vs. DET: 8.5-4.6-50-0.40 = 9.7
35. Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. SF: 5.9-4.3-59-0.24 = 9.5
36. Jameson Williams, DET at CHI: 5.4-3.3-55-0.26 = 9.4
37. Christian Watson, GB vs. NO: 5.6-3.2-58-0.32 = 9.4
38. Darnell Mooney, ATL vs. NYG: 6.5-3.9-58-0.27 = 9.4
39. Marvin Harrison Jr., ARZ at CAR: 7.1-3.6-52-0.39 = 9.3

40. Xavier Worthy, KC vs. HST

6.9-3.9-45-0.33 = 9.2

Worthy hasn’t enjoyed the dramatic second-half jump that his Chiefs predecessor Rashee Rice did in his rookie 2023 season. But the speedy rookie has played 80% or higher snap shares the last two weeks and seen five or more targets the last three weeks after failing to touch either benchmark earlier in the year. Patrick Mahomes may be hobbled by his high-ankle sprain. But I would risk Worthy in my season-long lineups and hope they can finally connect on one of their explosive touchdown attempts.

41. Deebo Samuel Sr., SF at MIA

5.7-3.5-46-0.21 = 9.1

Samuel has taken a surprising backseat to Jauan Jennings since Brandon Aiyuk’s season-ending ACL injury. But as terrible as the veteran’s fantasy season has felt at times, Samuel remains one of the most efficient players in football. His 7.42 average yards after the catch is third highest among regular wide receivers. And while the 49ers may be too late to make a real playoff push, they seem poised to right their offense in these last few weeks. Continue to start Samuel in fantasy.

42. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, NO at GB

6.1-3.1-56-0.28 = 8.9

Valdes-Scantling has seen his target share skyrocket from 8.8% in his first five weeks with the Saints to 20.6% in Weeks 14 and 15, that latter of which ranks 35th among wide receivers. If Derek Carr were still his quarterback, I would view him as a safe flex option. But Valdes-Scantling will presumably have rookie Spencer Rattler under center Monday night. Meanwhile, MVS was already feeling the effects of his silver-medal expected touchdown surplus from those first five Saints weeks in his lack of touchdowns the last two weeks. All told, you likely have a better final flex option.

43. Rome Odunze, CHI vs. DET

6.9-3.7-48-0.33 = 8.7

Odunze is checking a lot of the receiver breakout boxes. He is a top-10 draft talent. He has an 18.6% target share that ties him for 30th highest at his position since Week 8. And he leads the Bears with 15 end zone targets this season. The issue? Quarterback play. Odunze has had no chance to catch 62.1% of his targeted air yards this season. That’s the highest rate of the 45 wide receivers with 800 or more air yards. The talented rookie has a bright future. But given his circumstances, I wouldn’t trust him in your fantasy playoff lineups.

44. Quentin Johnston, LAC vs. DEN

6.2-3.4-45-0.37 = 8.5

Johnston has recovered from his drop issues in Week 12 to catch five passes for 45-plus yards and a touchdown each of the last two weeks. But as much as he’s scored this season, Johnston has a ceiling limited by his new head coach Jim Harbaugh’s run preference. Justin Herbert’s 31.5 projected pass attempts in Week 16 are bottom third at the position. And that drops Johnston below the flex standard benchmark even with a 21.0% projected target share that ranks top 40 at his position.

45. Romeo Doubs, GB vs. NO

5.5-3.5-47-0.33 = 8.5

I make a lot of jokes about Jaire Alexander calling Doubs the second-best receiver in the NFL in the preseason. But Doubs’ talent isn’t why he misses my flex starter standard in Week 16. When their receiver room is fully healthy, the Packers have too much talent for every receiver to reach his full potential. Case in point, Doubs has an 18.6% target share in the games he’s played this season, a modest 53rd among receivers with three or more games played. He’ll pop when he scores. But Doubs doesn’t see the target volume to support a consistent flex case.

46. Josh Downs, IND vs. TEN: 6.3-4.1-46-0.28 = 8.3
47. Jalen Coker, CAR vs. ARZ: 5.6-3.5-51-0.24 = 8.3
48. Ray-Ray McCloud, ATL vs. NYG: 6.0-4.3-48-0.17 = 8.3
49. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG at ATL: 8.0-5.1-38-0.24 = 8.0
50. Tank Dell, HST at KC: 5.5-3.3-43-0.25 = 7.9
51. Cedric Tillman, CLV at CIN: 6.0-3.5-41-0.28 = 7.6
52. Michael Pittman Jr., IND vs. TEN: 6.1-3.6-41-0.19 = 7.1
53. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN at IND: 4.6-2.6-39-0.31 = 7.0
54. DeMario Douglas, NE at BUF: 5.3-4.0-38-0.17 = 7.0
55. Calvin Austin III, PIT at BLT: 4.9-2.9-41-0.23 = 6.9
56. Jalen McMillan, TB at DAL: 5.2-3.0-36-0.25 = 6.6
57. Rashod Bateman, BLT vs. PIT: 4.0-2.5-40-0.23 = 6.6
58. Kayshon Boutte, NE at BUF: 5.4-3.0-38-0.19 = 6.4
59. Joshua Palmer, LAC vs. DEN: 4.5-2.8-40-0.17 = 6.4
60. Elijah Moore, CLV at CIN: 5.6-3.5-33-0.18 = 6.2
61. Parker Washington, JAX at LV: 5.0-2.9-35-0.19 = 6.2
62. Devaughn Vele, DEN at LAC: 4.3-3.0-35-0.18 = 6.1
63. Brandin Cooks, DAL vs. TB: 4.8-2.7-30-0.28 = 6.1
64. Kendrick Bourne, NE at BUF: 4.2-3.0-35-0.19 = 6.1
65. Marvin Mims Jr., DEN at LAC: 3.6-2.4-32-0.17 = 6.1
66. Amari Cooper, BUF vs. NE: 3.8-2.3-34-0.21 = 5.9
67. Tim Patrick, DET at CHI: 3.8-2.7-32-0.20 = 5.8
68. Allen Lazard, NYJ vs. LA: 3.7-2.2-30-0.21 = 5.4
69. Sterling Shepard, TB at DAL: 4.2-2.7-28-0.18 = 5.4
70. David Moore, CAR vs. ARZ: 4.6-2.6-29-0.19 = 5.4
71. Michael Wilson, ARZ at CAR: 3.6-2.4-30-0.18 = 5.3
72. Alec Pierce, IND vs. TEN: 3.5-1.8-34-0.16 = 5.2
73. Mike Williams, PIT at BLT: 3.2-2.0-28-0.17 = 4.9
74. Tyler Boyd, TEN at IND: 3.7-2.6-27-0.13 = 4.9
75. Tre Tucker, LV vs. JAX: 3.7-2.3-27-0.13 = 4.9
76. Malik Washington, MIA vs. SF: 3.7-2.4-25-0.15 = 4.9
77. Darius Slayton, NYG at ATL: 3.7-2.1-30-0.12 = 4.8
78. Andrei Iosivas, CIN vs. CLV: 3.6-2.0-24-0.20 = 4.6
79. Keon Coleman, BUF vs. NE: 2.6-1.6-27-0.15 = 4.4
80. Demarcus Robinson, LA at NYJ: 3.0-1.6-23-0.21 = 4.3
81. Troy Franklin, DEN at LAC: 3.8-2.0-23-0.16 = 4.3

Tight Ends

7. Mark Andrews, BLT vs. PIT: 4.8-4.1-47-0.42 = 9.2
8. Hunter Henry, NE at BUF: 6.9-4.9-50-0.27 = 9.1
9. Pat Freiermuth, PIT at BLT: 4.9-4.1-43-0.32 = 8.3
10. Tucker Kraft, GB vs. NO: 4.5-3.3-43-0.32 = 7.9

11. Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. NYG

5.6-3.5-46-0.26 = 7.9

My projection system is typically conservative with rookie quarterbacks. But Falcons veteran Kirk Cousins has slipped so much as a passer that the team’s pivot to Michael Penix Jr. under center looks poised to benefit the full receiver room. Pitts specifically jumped from my TE13 to my TE11 with more than half an extra projected fantasy point. Maybe it’s just me, but I’m ready to be hurt again.

12. T.J. Hockenson, MIN at SEA

5.6-4.1-44-0.21 = 7.8

Hockenson has jumped from a 45-48% snap share in his first three weeks off his 2023 ACL tear to between 62-68% shares the last four weeks. And the veteran has the eighth highest target share at his position in that most recent month. He may not be a top two target on his team next to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. But Hockenson remains a TE1 in fantasy.

13. Zach Ertz, WAS vs. PHI

5.5-3.9-38-0.31 = 7.6

Ertz is in concussion protocol after his head hit the turf on a violent tackle in Week 15. An unexpected top eight tight end target share makes him a fantasy starter when he’s healthy. But follow the news the next few days because Ertz may not play this week.

14. Cade Otton, TB at DAL

5.3-3.6-37-0.29 = 7.2

Otton enjoyed a temporary featured role when Mike Evans missed Weeks 8-10. But since Week 12, Otton has regressed to a 13.2% target share that ranks a modest 16th among tight ends. Leave him on your fantasy benches this week.

15. Juwan Johnson, NO at GB: 4.7-3.6-37-0.26 = 7.1
16. Noah Gray, KC vs. HST: 4.0-3.2-36-0.27 = 6.8
17. Brenton Strange, JAX at LV: 4.7-3.6-35-0.24 = 6.7
18. Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. NE: 5.9-3.4-36-0.21 = 6.6
19. Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. TB: 5.3-3.7-33-0.18 = 6.3
20. Dalton Schultz, HST at KC: 5.2-3.3-34-0.18 = 6.1
21. Mike Gesicki, CIN vs. CLV: 4.0-3.1-33-0.20 = 6.0
22. Foster Moreau, NO at GB: 3.5-2.6-31-0.25 = 5.9
23. Austin Hooper, NE at BUF: 3.9-2.9-32-0.19 = 5.8
24. Chig Okonkwo, TEN at IND: 4.3-3.1-30-0.17 = 5.6
25. Stone Smartt, LAC vs. DEN: 3.8-2.7-30-0.15 = 5.2
26. Isaiah Likely, BLT vs. PIT: 3.2-2.3-26-0.23 = 5.1
27. Noah Fant, SEA vs. MIN: 3.8-2.9-29-0.12 = 5.1
28. Jordan Akins, CLV at CIN: 3.8-2.6-26-0.14 = 4.8
29. Cole Kmet, CHI vs. DET: 2.8-2.4-25-0.15 = 4.6
30. Daniel Bellinger, NYG at ATL: 2.8-2.3-23-0.11 = 4.1
31. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. LA: 3.2-2.1-20-0.13 = 3.8
32. Grant Calcaterra, PHI at WAS: 2.4-1.9-22-0.11 = 3.8
33. Michael Mayer, LV vs. JAX: 2.7-1.8-17-0.12 = 3.3
34. AJ Barner, SEA vs. MIN: 2.4-1.7-16-0.12 = 3.2
35. Josh Oliver, MIN at SEA: 1.9-1.5-17-0.13 = 3.2
36. Josh Whyle, TEN at IND: 2.3-1.7-17-0.11 = 3.2
37. Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR vs. ARZ: 2.1-1.6-17-0.11 = 3.1
38. Tyler Higbee, LA at NYJ: 2.3-1.6-16-0.09 = 2.9
39. Tommy Tremble, CAR vs. ARZ: 2.2-1.5-15-0.11 = 2.9
40. Tanner Hudson, CIN vs. CLV: 2.0-1.6-14-0.09 = 2.7
41. Kylen Granson, IND vs. TEN: 2.1-1.2-14-0.07 = 2.4
42. Adam Trautman, DEN at LAC: 1.6-1.0-13-0.10 = 2.4
43. Dawson Knox, BUF vs. NE: 1.5-1.0-13-0.08 = 2.2
44. Darnell Washington, PIT at BLT: 1.6-1.2-12-0.07 = 2.2