10 Things to Know: Fantasy Football Week 16

Week 16 of the fantasy football season has arrived, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Championship dreams are on the line, but navigating this crucial week requires more than just starting your studs.

My “10 Things to Know” will equip you with the insights to not only dominate your semifinal matchup but also avoid those potential pitfalls that could derail your championship hopes. We’ll uncover hidden gems at tight end, warn you about risky wide receivers with touchdown-dependent performances, and dissect the truth behind volatile young players.

Let’s dive into the crucial information that will give you the edge in this win-or-go-home week and set you on the path to fantasy glory.

1. Vidal’s Rise: A Late-Season Surprise?

Could preseason darling Kimani Vidal commandeer the Chargers backfield to close out the season? Over the last two weeks, Vidal has outsnapped Gus Edwards 62-38. According to FTN StatsHub, Edwards has 18 rushing attempts to Vidals 11 over that stretch, but Vidal has seen four targets compared to Edwards zero. Vidal has been moderately more efficient, 3.9 yards per carry compared to Edwards’ 3.3. But Edwards has an alarming 27.8% stuffed rate compared to 9.1% for Vidal, and Edwards’s yards before contact are less than half of Vidals, 0.6 to 1.5. The increase in snaps has yet to develop into a full-blown takeover, but Edwards is a known commodity. Even with a maximum of two weeks left, Vidal is worthy of a pickup and stash in anticipation of potentially being named starter, just in time for championship week.

2. Ridley’s Christmas Miracle: Rudolph Saves the Day

Initially, the move from Will Levis to Mason Rudolph as Titans starting quarterback appears to have no impact on Calvin Ridley‘s fantasy outlook. In the five games with Rudolph under center for the Titans, Ridley’s stats look virtually the same as with Levis.

However, thanks to the multitude of filters available in our Splits Tool, I modified the output to show games with Rudolph but without DeAndre Hopkins, who was traded to the Chiefs. 

In the two games with Rudolph, post-Hopkins trade, Ridley has flourished. He’s averaged around two extra targets and receptions per game, over an additional 40 yards, and, most importantly, more than eight additional PPR points per game. Ridley remains a volatile WR2 but both his ceiling and floor rise with the return of Rudolph. 

3. A Fly-by-Night Hero for the Fantasy Playoffs

Sit down before you read this, but Cooper Rush is a viable option in both superflex and 1QB leagues. Dallas takes on Tampa Bay in Week 16, the second-best DVOA-Adjusted Points Against matchup for quarterbacks. Since Week 10, the only teams not to throw a touchdown against the Bucs are the Giants and Raiders (with a conglomeration of Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder under center). But it’s more than just the matchup, Rush has put up reliable numbers as of late. Since Week 11, Rush ranks inside the top 10 in passing touchdowns (9) and passing yards (1,193) and has thrown just two interceptions. If you find yourself in desperation mode at quarterback in the fantasy semifinals, you could do a lot worse than Cooper Rush.

4. Pacheco’s Playoff Upside Fading Fast

It appeared Isiah Pacheco was assuming control of the Chiefs backfield in Week 14, but Week 15 painted a different picture. Pacheco split carries evenly with Kareem Hunt versus the Browns with 13 carries each. Neither fared well, averaging under four yards per carry and a single catch each. Whether Patrick Mahomes plays hobbled or Carson Wentz under center, an already-formidable Houston Texans run defense will be able to zero in on the run. Pacheco is a flex at best and one I’d prefer to leave out of my lineup. 

5. Strange Things Happening: Brenton is a Must-Start

Second-year Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange erupted against the Jets after teammate Evan Engram went down with a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 15 — Strange set career highs across the board with 11 receptions on 12 targets and 73 receiving yards. According to the FTN Splits Tool, Strange’s stats have surged in five games without Engram, averaging nearly five catches on six targets and 10.9ppr points per game. The Jags face the Raiders in Week 16, the fifth-best DVOA-APA matchup for tight ends. Outside of the elite options, Strange is a must-start in Week 16. 

6. Rodgers’ BFF is Back: Adams is a Must-Start

Davante Adams has been unstoppable since the Jets Week 12 bye. According to FTN StatsHub, Adams is inside the top 5 in targets (35), receptions (23), receiving yards (373), yards per route run (3.3) and tied with Terry McLaurin for the most touchdowns at the position with 4. 

Adams is firmly back in WR1 status, a must-start regardless of matchup. 

7. McMillan Trending Up in Tampa Bay

Over the past two weeks, Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan has produced high-end WR2 numbers, averaging over five catches and six targets per game. Starting McMillan is a risk; his three touchdown receptions have boosted his 20.2 PPR points per game. Tampa’s Sunday night matchup with Dallas has a projected game total of close to fifty. And the Cowboys are a top 10 DVOA-APA matchup. If you need a WR3 or flex play with upside, McMillan is a solid start who could be available on the waiver wire. 

8. Don’t Trust Dell

There was a stretch of the season where Tank Dell looked to be getting his rookie season swagger back, but that’s once again come crashing down. Dell has surpassed double-digit fantasy points once since week 10 and has a mere six catches in his last three games. C.J. Stroud has struggled in his sophomore season, and a possibly Mahomes-less Chiefs offense (or at least a hobbled Mahomed) has the projected game total floating around 40. Dell shouldn’t be anywhere near starting lineups for the final two weeks. 

9. Flex with Care: Doubs’ Boom or Bust Week

Romeo Doubs returned with a splash, scoring two touchdowns in the Packers drubbing of the Seahawks. But he’s far from a surefire start. Despite leading the team’s pass catchers with a 75%.8% snap share, Doubs was third on the team in targets behind Christian Watson and Jayden Reed. A Monday night matchup with a Saints team that likely starts Spencer Rattler and could be without Alvin Kamara shouldn’t need much effort from the offense to take home a win. Doubs is a viable flex, but Week 16 trends more toward “bust” than “boom.” 

10. Don’t Let Defense Be Your Championship Downfall

With the fantasy playoffs underway, managers are laser-focused on securing a championship. While your focus should undoubtedly be on winning this week, there’s an edge to be had by looking ahead. Whether out of necessity or negligence, I’ve seen plenty of defenses with phenomenal championship matchups dropped. You may not have room to pick up and stash an extra defense. But if you do, here are a few of my favorites I’ve seen available. Don’t get left picking from the scraps. 

• Chargers @ Patriots
• Saints vs. Raiders
• Titans @ Jaguars
• Colts @ Giants
• Bills vs. Jets