Week 16 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

We need to right the ship. 

After a scalding hot streak of four straight moneyline underdogs, we have failed to cash our long shot plays for the subsequent four weeks. We are still profitable for the entire season, but it’s time to get serious and start a new streak to end the 2024 season. 

We turn the page to Week 16 to restart our hot moneyline stream from just three weeks ago. Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 16 of the 2024 season.

Week 16 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Chicago +6.5 vs. Detroit

(+240, FanDuel Sportsbook)

The Lions are headed in the wrong direction, allowing 79 points in their last two games. Detroit has been decimated by defensive injuries and have recorded just one total sack in the last two games. They now go on the road to face a Bears team that almost pulled an upset in Detroit on Thanksgiving. 

Detroit will be without lead running back David Montgomery, who is out for the rest of the year after suffering an MCL injury against the Bills. This is a prime spot for the Bears, who have lost an astounding eight straight games. Chicago’s defense played better than expected Monday night at Minnesota, but it was the Bears offense that could not generate consistent production. That will not happen at home against a Detroit team they posted three passing touchdowns against just three weeks ago. 

The Lions are headed in the wrong betting direction, failing to cover three straight contests. They started the season 7-1 ATS, and then 9-2 heading into the Thanksgiving game against Chicago. As great as the Lions have played, the injuries are starting to take their toll. Give me the Bears to score a huge divisional upset at home against the NFC-leading Lions. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 2.40 Units