The Report: Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 16

The No. 1 enemy of fantasy football players is overthinking. Heading into this weekend with the fantasy semifinals on the line, take a step back from your fantasy lineups. Sure, you could tinker with things a thousand times and research every possible angle. But your initial lineup is typically your best lineup.

Like we said last week, don’t get cute. Start your best players and you’ll give yourself the best possible change of winning.

Additionally, don’t worry about “upside.” Sure, it’s great when a player hits his ceiling like Tyjae Spears did last week, but those players also have an equal chance of hitting their floor. The good news is that there’s significantly higher probability they’ll be somewhere in between. The midpoint is what we need to focus on for fantasy purposes. So instead of looking for upside on your roster, seek out the players who are going to score the most points most often and start them.

Upside doesn’t win championships. Points do.

Each week in The Report, I’m going to go through every game and give you the information you need to make the most informed decisions possible for your fantasy football rosters. I’ll provide some key about matchups, trends and anything else we need to know about each contest.

Note: The Report will be updated as I finish writing up each game, so be sure to check back throughout the end of the week. Games will be periodically added until Friday afternoon.

Denver @ LA Chargers

With a win against the Chargers, the Broncos would clinch their first postseason berth since their Super Bowl victory in 2015. That would end the longest postseason drought for a team following a Super Bowl win in NFL history.

A big part of the Broncos success is due to the play of rookie QB Bo Nix. He leads all first-year players with 25 total touchdowns this season (20 passing, 3 rushing, 1 receiving). He’s on pace to become the first Broncos rookie quarterback to top 20 passing touchdowns and 3,000 passing yards in franchise history. Of course, there is a “but” here. The Chargers haven’t exactly been the most fantasy-friendly matchup. Yes, Baker Mayfield did light them up last week, but LA has only allowed one 300-yard passer this season. Nix is just on the outside of the top 12 this week.

Courtland Sutton has racked up 16 receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons, including six this year. Four of them have come in his last five games. He remains a top-15 fantasy play. As for the backfield, Jaleel McLaughlin is banged up, but there’s still just too much chaos in how Sean Payton deploys his running backs. It’s best to avoid this group.

Last week, Justin Herbert snapped a streak of 11 straight starts without a pick, tying the Super Bowl era record. Herbert has also surpassed 20,000 career passing yards, joining Hall of Famer Peyton Manning as the only players in NFL history to achieve this milestone within their first five seasons. However, like Nix, the matchup keeps him outside of QB1 territory. Denver allows the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Ladd McConkey has recorded at least 50 receiving yards in each of his last seven games. With 873 receiving yards this season, McConkey is on pace to become just the third rookie in Chargers history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards, joining Keenan Allen and John Jefferson. More important, he seems to be over the injury that sidelined him in Week 14. Fire McConkey up as a front-end WR2 play. We also could have a tight end streamer in Stone Smartt. He caught five balls last week and Will Dissly looks unlikely to play.

Houston @ Kansas City

In games where Nico Collins plays this season, C.J. Stroud has thrown for 12 touchdown passes. That isn’t amazing in nine games, but Stroud posted just five passing scores in the six games without Collins this season. Unfortunately, Collins hasn’t been enough to get Stroud back into QB1 territory. He’s managed just one top-12 finish over his last 10 games.

Collins averages 94.3 receiving yards per game this season, which ranks second in the NFL entering Week 16 behind Ja’Marr Chase. Collins has also found the end zone in five of his nine games this season, including two scores last week. He remains a top-10 fantasy play.

Joe Mixon enters the week with seven games with 100-plus rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, tying Saquon Barkley for the most in the NFL. However, his production has slowed recently, with just one rushing touchdown over the past three games after scoring 10 in his first eight games. Still, Mixon figures to see heavy volume and is still an RB1 option.

Patrick Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain in the Chiefs’ Week 15 win over the Browns, but he still has a chance of playing. Mahomes practiced in full on Tuesday and played through a similar injury during the 2022 playoffs. Over his last seven games, Mahomes has averaged 242.2 passing yards per game with 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Still, it’ll be tough trusting him in 1QB leagues on a bum wheel.

Isiah Pacheco has struggled to regain his form since returning from a broken leg in Week 13. In three games since his return, Pacheco has carried the ball 34 times for 131 yards, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry and scoring no touchdowns. Last week, he saw a near 50-50 split with Kareem Hunt. At this point, we can’t consider him anything more than a flex play.

Travis Kelce remains a reliable option, with 84 receptions this season, the third most among tight ends entering Week 16. However, his production has dipped compared to previous years, as he is averaging a career-low 50.6 receiving yards per game this season. Even with a hobbled Mahomes, Kelce is still a top-10 fantasy tight end.

Since being acquired by the Chiefs via trade in Week 8, DeAndre Hopkins has contributed 35 receptions for 393 yards and four touchdowns in eight games. He has yet to record a 100-yard receiving game this season and has been held under 50 receiving yards in four of his last five games. He’s just a flex play this week.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Lamar Jackson enters the week with 34 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. That’s the second-most touchdown passes recorded before a player’s fourth interception in NFL history (behind Aaron Rodgers‘ 35 in 2014). Last week, Jackson became the second player in NFL history to achieve 250-plus passing yards, 5-plus passing touchdowns and 60-plus rushing yards in a single game, joining Cam Newton, who accomplished the feat in 2015. He leads the league in yards per attempt (8.9) and yards per rush (6.4) this season. That’s only happened once before: Robert Griffin III in 2012.

Despite impressive numbers this season, Derrick Henry has faced recent challenges. Over the last seven games, his rushing average has dipped to 85.9 yards per game, compared to 124.7 in the first seven games of the season. Additionally, after scoring a touchdown in each of his first 11 games, Jackson has now gone three straight games without finding the end zone. To be fair, he is on track to become the first player since Tiki Barber in 2006 to rush for 1,500-plus yards in a season at age 30 or older. But his recent dip has him moving down among the RB1s. He’s still a top-12 play but more of a mid-range RB1 option.

Mark Andrews solidified his place in Ravens history last week, catching his 48th career touchdown, surpassing Jamal Lewis for the most in franchise history. He remains an upside streamer. As for Zay Flowers, he hasn’t finished inside the top 30 wide receivers in his last five games. However, this one should set up well for him, and he’s a front end WR2 play.

On the other side, Russell Wilson has seen his passing production decline significantly in Pittsburgh’s last two games without George Pickens. Wilson averaged 271 passing yards per game in the first six games of the season but has dropped to just 143 yards per game in the last two contests as Pickens has been sidelined with a hamstring injury. Will Pickens play? As of this writing, he looks to be very up in the air. We’ll need to stay tuned through Thursday’s final practice reports. If he can suit up, He’ll be a top-20 option, but Wilson will still be too risky to use. Otherwise, we still have Najee Harris as a flex play and Pat Freiermuth as a low-upside streamer.