Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to The Breakdown for Week 15, a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.
For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.
I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 15.
#FTNDaily
All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.
“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to.
CHI +3.5. O/U: 46.5
CHI: 21.5 | MIN: 24.5
Pace and playcalling
Minnesota’s home games have gone 6-1 to the OVER, with their games averaging 59.23 PPG, +10.1 points over the Vegas total per game this season.
This game will test that streak, with the Vikings averaging 14.4 PPG in their last five against Chicago (1-4), the one win being the 19-13 slugfest in Week 10. Since that game, these teams have shown a lot of vulnerability, so I don’t think we can just write this game off.
In terms of pace, if you think Minnesota controls the game, the clock could feel like it is stuck on fast forward, because they will run at 60% and play slowly when they get a lead or it’s close.
Chicago bounced back against a depleted Houston squad last week, but I am not convinced this is the same Bears defense we avoided for the most part early this season after getting lit up for 37.5 PPG by the Lions and Packers.
Minnesota will pass at a 66% rate when down by at least 7, so we need Chicago to come out scoring to get this game into an elevated pace and pass rates.
Chicago passes at the second-highest rate when down at least 7 (76%), which is why they are first overall in pass rate. They only pass at a 59% rate in neutral situations, they have just played from behind frequently.
Minnesota is first, Chicago second in fourth-quarter scoring. Minnesota has averaged 12.9 PPG at home in the fourth quarter this season, first by nearly four points over Cleveland.
Bears
Mitchell Trubisky has thrown 3 TD passes in three of his six starts (4 total TD passes in his other three). The Bears have averaged 27 PPG with Trubisky starting versus 18.37 with Nick Foles under center, but in fairness to Foles, the scheduling has been much favorable for Trubisky, who runs into another plus matchup against the Vikings shaky secondary and no starting middle LB. The Vikings signed linebacker Blake Lynch off the practice squad Wednesday, which tells us Eric Kendricks is likely out again.
Allen Robinson saw another 13 targets last week, the second time in three games he has gotten to 13, which has him averaging 10.67 targets with Trubisky this season for 20.67 DraftKings points per game. Robinson hasn’t been playing in the slot as much lately, but when he does he produces. On 10 slot targets in his last three, he has posted a 9-66-2 line (25% of snaps).
David Montgomery has been great, but this is the week we jump off with his price inflated and ownership still projected to be over 10%. I have outlined Minnesota not being a difficult matchup, especially with Kendricks OUT (31st in adjusted line yards), and I like how Montgomery’s passing work has stayed constant at 4.6 targets per game, but I prefer to attack with Robinson and the other lower-owned options.
Jimmy Graham (hip) was limited at practice Thursday and Friday after practicing fully Wednesday. It would be great if he is ruled out and we can use Cole Kmet in all our lineups. Kmet outsnapped Graham (significantly) for the third straight week last time (14-5 in targets, last three, 57-25 in routes, last two). Graham stole a TD, but Kmet was still able to post 4-41-0. Minnesota is 30th in yards allowed per target (8.3 yards) to tight ends to add some matchup appeal as a TE2 option.
Darnell Mooney is the clear WR2, playing full time opposite Robinson. Javon Wims, a big, 6-foot-4 receiver, has been mixing in more over the past two weeks on the outside (41% snap share), which allows Robinson (10 slot snaps per game) and Mooney (5) to play inside. The loser in this is Anthony Miller (53% snap share), who still operates in the slot, along with Kmet and Graham. I know everyone is chasing the Mooney breakout with his elite speed, I get it. But he is 91st in catchable target rate and 99th in yards per route run. I prefer Kmet over chasing the Mooney home run, but I also think you are fine just linking Trubisky with Robinson and calling it a day.
Vikings
Kirk Cousins is a story we know well — much like Ryan Tannehill, he can fall into a bad spot where his running back takes all the yards and TDs. That was not the case last week, when Cousins got 37 attempts, but he only managed 225 yards and a TD on 6.1 yards per attempt. We have seen other good fantasy QBs get slowed down in Tampa, so I don’t think we need to overreact. The Chicago defense has shown vulnerability and got bailed out last week with a couple TDs being either dropped or called back. Cousins has been much better at home, which makes sense knowing the high-scoring nature of those games. If Trubisky and the Bears can score enough to pull him into another one of those games, he will surprise at a 2% ownership.
Dalvin Cook ran right through a tough matchup with Tampa, posting 22-102-1, but had his worst receiving game in a month (2-8-0) after averaging 4.75 receptions per game in the four preceding outings. Chicago has been a nuisance to Cook; he’s averaging 11.8 fantasy points per game in four career games while putting up nearly 22 points per game against the rest of the league. Regardless of matchup, he gets so much volume (22 touches as a floor since Week 2), he is going to churn out fantasy points (0.90 fantasy points per opportunity, averaging 25.9 touches per game).
The nice thing about Cousins stacks is he consolidates his targets heavily between Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, with Thielen dominating red-zone targets with a 45.9% target share inside the 20 (Jefferson has an 18.2% share), and Jefferson dominating nearly every other meaningful statistic (averaging almost 20 more yards a game). Jefferson leads the league in yards per target (11.7), whereas Thielen is 46th.
Jefferson is always my preference with their prices so close, and I just pray Thielen doesn’t catch two TDs. Jefferson caught 8-of-10 targets for 135 yards in this matchup in Week 10, and has correlated well with Cousins, averaging 23.4 fantasy points per game at home (11.7 away).
The Bears could be without three starters in the secondary (Deon Bush, Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine), so I repeat that this is not a difficult matchup (Chicago is 25th in QB pressure rate)
Irv Smith busted out last week and should be a popular option against a Chicago team that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. Smith caught all four of his targets for 63 yards and a touchdown last week with Kyle Rudolph out. But there is a little red flag, or an excuse to fade if you need it — he ran only 18 routes, which means he was busy when he was out there (4-63-1). Tyler Conklin outsnapped him and caught all five of his targets for 40 yards, but that could have been due to it being Smith’s first game back after missing two straight and three of four. This week, Smith did not appear on the injury report, which means he logged a full week of practice for the first time in over a month. Conkin will be out there, considering Minnesota running so many two-TE sets, but Smith is the guy to invest in.
Injuries
- The Vikings practiced without tight end Kyle Rudolph (foot) & running back Alexander Mattison (appendix surgery). I expect both to be out.
Core plays: Allen Robinson, Mitchell Trubisky, Irv Smith, Cole Kmet (GPP if Jimmy Graham is active)
GPP only: Justin Jefferson
Stacks: Kirk Cousins/Jefferson/Irv Smith is my preferred Minnesota stack. For a game stack, Cousins/Adam Thielen/Jefferson/David Montgomery/Darnell Mooney (fine with Montgomery in game stacks, not in core lineup, fine with Mooney in large-field GPP)
HOU +7. O/U: 51
HOU: 21 | IND: 30
Pace and playcalling
Both these teams are neutral in terms of pace, playing at a similar league-average pace. They are also in the middle in terms of pass rate, so there isn’t much to talk about here.
With Houston being so bad on D, and losing six of nine, the Texans’ overall pass rate is up to eighth, and 7-9 of their rush attempts per game are coming from Deshaun Watson (Houston is 31st in RB carries).
One pace stat that did stand out is Indianapolis once they get a 7-point lead. Only the Raiders run at a higher rate in that situation (since Week 5), and no team runs at a higher rate over their last three games, with Indianapolis rushing on 73% of those plays. The Colts are 5-1 ATS versus Watson, so that is a scenario that would make it hard for more than one receiver to pay off, and would not get Philip Rivers there.
Houston is 1-5 to the UNDER at home (first), and 5-2 to the OVER on the road (also first). Indianapolis is tied for fourth at 8-4-1 to the OVER this season, with three of their last four games going over 70 total points.
Texans
Watson flashed his new floor last week. Post-Will Fuller and without Brandin Cooks, the Bears held him to his lowest yardage output (throwing out the Cleveland monsoon game), just 219 passing yards and 1 TD pass (to Keke Coutee). Watson also had (another) TD pass dropped by stonehands himself, Jordan Akins. He still completed 70% of his passes while rushing for 38 yards, the sixth time in seven games he has rushed for at least 36 yards. He also had a rush TD overturned with his elbow being down at the one-foot line, which means he was two bad breaks from another 26 fantasy points despite absolutely no weapons.
Cooks should be back, which should help get Watson back to his usual 300-and-multiple-score status. I am looking for Cooks to add value to Watson, Coutee and the rest, more than I am looking to play Cooks himself. I have highlighted the demise of the Indianapolis passing D, which is not anything to avoid. Since the Colts’ schedule turned more competitive, they have been getting lit up (Aaron Rodgers 311-3-1, Ryan Tannehill 221-1 plus a rush TD on 22 attempts, Derek Carr 316-2-2 plus a rush TD, and Watson 341 and a rush TD). Indy has now allowed five rush TDs to QBs on the season along with 8.2 yards per pass in the last three, which is only better than Detroit and Vegas. With recency bias being a real thing, plus the perception of Indy being a good pass D, Watson is coming in at 5% in our ownership projections. He is a top option at the position with 30-point fantasy upside at low ownership and his price below $7k for the first time in four games.
I think Coutee bounces back against Kenny Moore in the slot and the Colts, a team he has terrorized in four starts. He averages 23.18 fantasy points per game against Indianapolis and 6.88 against the rest of the league (22 games).
I think we can take a shot on $4.2k Chad Hansen, who has back-to-back games with 7 targets (12-157-0 in two games). This whole situation should come with a disclaimer however, since Steven Mitchell leapt from 9% to 92% in snap share last week with Cooks out (more snaps and routes than both Coutee and Hansen). Coutee lined up on the outside (unusual) for 19 snaps (21 slot snaps, only one slot target), with Mitchell right behind him in slot snaps (18 slot snaps, four slot targets). They essentially used Mitchell in the Cooks role, which kept Hansen in the Fuller role and Coutee in the Randall Cobb role, with Akins eating into his slot usage (Akins 12 slot snaps, 3 targets). The clean situation would be Mitchell going back to the bench, but he will likely eat into some of Coutee’s snaps and targets.
I will continue to ignore David Johnson, as I have since we started drafting best ball teams in July. If you are a masochist, Duke Johnson and C.J. Prosise appear to be OUT, but they seem to be fine running out Buddy Powell as the RB2, so I still don’t think you see those 20-plus touches he has seen two times this season. DeForest Buckner is questionable, which is significant to the Colts run defense. I don’t know if it is enough to put me on David, but it certainly makes him more appealing after we saw this defense struggle so much without Buckner against Tennessee.
Colts
Philip Rivers completed 77% of his passes and tossed two TD passes last week, something he has done in four straight, including the 285-2-0 he posted against these Texans in Week 10 (19.2 fantasy points). You don’t need me to tell you Houston sucks at this point of the season, and I think the Texans can score enough to keep Rivers throwing (34.9 attempts per game), which should get him to 275-plus yards and a couple scores once again, with a shot of reaching the 28-point fantasy ceiling he showed in Week 6.
Over his past three games, Jonathan Taylor has accrued 64 opportunities compared to 30 for Nyheim Hines and 15 for Jordan Wilkins.
After being on Taylor for back-to-back season-high outputs, capped by the 33.5 fantasy points in Vegas last week, it will be annoying to play him as more expensive chalk, but he is a top-three option at the position in this matchup against the horrific Houston front-seven (29th in adjusted line yards allowed, 31st in RB carries allowed, 32nd in RB yards per carry allowed).
Zach Pascal has played 148 snaps in the last three weeks and has caught one ball a game. That is strange for a team to simply not use their primary slot WR at all, but that is the case with Pascal. Right now, it’s a two man show, with Michael Pittman and T.Y. Hilton being the Colts’ only usable fantasy commodities outside of Taylor.
We apparently started Hilton’s funeral procession too soon. He leads the team with 22 targets (21%) in his last three and has reached 80-plys yards in all of those after not getting to 80 once in his first 11. His price remains low (just $5.5k) which you don’t usually see for a player who has been a top-six finisher in two straight, averaging 23.9 fantasy points over this last three.
Pittman has seen an obvious downturn with Hilton’s resurgence. With the Colts using their backs and TEs, we haven’t seen Rivers carry two WRs to ceiling games yet this season, so if you are going to stack with Rivers I would use one or the other
Hines is the next-most viable Colts player and the biggest threat to Taylor. He is going to get 8-12 touches per game and has 18 red-zone touches to Taylor’s 11 over their past five games.
Core plays: Jonathan Taylor, Deshaun Watson
GPP only: T.Y. Hilton, Chad Hansen, Brandin Cooks, Philip Rivers, Michael Pittman, Jordan Akins
DET +10.5. O/U: NA
DET: NA | TEN: NA
Pace and playcalling
These teams are Nos. 4 (Detroit) and 6 in overall pace. This game grades out well from a pace standpoint, if it can stay close enough.
Once the Titans are up by at least 7, they run at 61% and slow it down by more than 4 seconds per snap, but they generally keep a brisk pace.
Detroit has allowed their opponents to score on 80% of their red-zone opportunities in their last three games (30th) and 70% overall (31st).
Detroit allows 4 red-zone trips per game, while Tennessee is second in red-zone trips in the last three and third overall. They are also second in red-zone scoring efficiency.
Tennessee is 5-1 to the OVER at home, tied with Seattle for second with 31 points per game. The Titans are first in scoring in their last three, averaging 37 PPG (30 PPG overall).
The Lions have allowed 34.0 PPG in their last three, second-most.
Lions
Matthew Stafford (ribs) wasn’t expected to practice on Friday but did get in limited reps to close the week. He traveled to Tennessee with a ‘questionable’ tag and now we wait for the decision. I will update this as soon as we get clarity.
Per Eliot Crist:
Regardless of who is under center this week for Detroit, T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift are set to smash this week. Since Week 9, Tennessee has allowed Trey Burton, Jimmy Graham and Mark Andrews to surpass 42 yards receiving and get into the end zone. Hockenson ranks ninth in red-zone targets (15) and seventh in targets inside the 10-yard line (9). If Chase Daniel is under center, don’t look for him to go away from Hockenson. In Daniel’s limited action (19 pass attempts), he’s targeted Hockenson the most on the team (26.3%).
Titans
The last two weeks have been a clear reminder that the Titans and their fantasy commodities are still extremely script-dependent. Corey Davis only played 64% in the blowout win last week and ran a meager 16 pass routes, which produced 3-34-0 on 3 targets. In the shootout in Cleveland, he ran 40 routes and saw 12 targets for 11-182-1. As you can see, it is just a matter of targets for he and Ryan Tannehill, connecting on 26 of their last 31 targets (13.5 yards per target).
Tannehill is ultra-efficient (second in fantasy points per dropback); he is just tied to the blowout/”Derrick Henry scores all the fantasy points” script (24 attempts last week), which is the obvious outcome in this matchup. If it goes the other way, this is a great spot for him, with Detroit allowing a 75% completion rate over the last three and Tannehill on target for 78.5% of his passes (fourth in ANY/A).
Henry doesn’t take much analysis — Detroit has allowed the second-most fantasy points to RBs and the most TDs to RBs and has the worst red-zone rush D in success rate against. Henry is expensive and will be chalk, but he is one of the safer plays for 20-plus fantasy points on the slate and could easily break it with another 200-yard, multi-TD performance. Currently, I am a bit overweight, with him on 35% of my lineups.
We talked about what would happen if A.J. Brown ever got more targets, and it happened in the most unlikely game. His 7-112-1 tied his season high for receptions, targets (9) and yards. There is no difference with Brown — every week he could be a top-five WR if he gets volume (six games with 21-plus fantasy points), or he will leave you wondering how a guy of his talent only put up 12 FP on a handful of opportunities (four games with 12 fantasy points or fewer). Detroit was already terrible (fourth-most fantasy points allowed), and then put another starting CB on IR this week. Jeff Okudah joins Desmond Trufant, leaving Amani Oruwariye, Justin Coleman and Mike Ford as the only three healthy corners currently on the 53-man roster. Darryl Roberts (hip) did not practice Thursday but could return, not that he offers much help. The only thing that can save this secondary from Brown and Davis is Henry and a blowout.
I am not messing with the other Tennessee players like Jonnu Smith, who is in a full-blown TE-by-committee with Anthony Firsker and Geoff Swaim.
Core plays: Derrick Henry
GPP only: Ryan Tannehill/A.J. Brown/Corey Davis (great leverage stack on teams you fade Henry)
There will be a Detroit update as soon as we have clarity on Stafford.
JAX +13.5. O/U: 47.5
JAX: 17 | BAL: 30.5
Pace and playcalling
This game features the ultimate of contrasting styles, with Baltimore leading the league with a 53.7% rush rate (56% in neutral), and Jacksonville having a 65.7% pass rate (first), due to being down since the season started (56% neutral rate). Only the Jets have played more while trailing by at least 7 points, and no team has played more total snaps from behind (1 point or more).
The contrast continues with playcalling against. Jacksonville allows the second-highest rush rate against, which plays right into Baltimore’s hands, as the Ravens rush at a 60% rate once they are up.
Jacksonville plays at a bottom-eight pace, so if this stays close, the clock could evaporate very quickly. It could also leave us disappointed if Baltimore gets a two-score lead (second-most snaps) and puts it on cruise control with their backfield committee, which is not optimal for DFS.
Jaguars
Gardner Minshew is back and is running into this Ravens team at the right time, with CBs Jimmy Smith OUT and Marcus Peters highly questionable after not practicing all week.
Baltimore has felt the effects of COVID-19 and injuries lately, giving up 42 points to Cleveland and 30 to Tennessee. They also lead the league in missed tackles, edging out the Raiders in that undesirable stat after flailing all night against Cleveland. Minshew was not bad for fantasy early in the year, finishing as a top-13 QB in five of seven starts. With Lamar Jackson playing well and the Jacksonville defense being so bad, Minshew should get a ton of attempts (he has five games with 40-plus), which against this depleted secondary could yield surprising results. In addition to Smith and Peters, CBs Anthony Averett (ankle), Davontae Harris (ankle) and Tramon Williams (thigh) are all questionable. I assume they all play, but it goes to show the state of the Ravens secondary right now.
James Robinson hit an unfortunate floor last week with the Jags being blown out in Tennessee. Devine Ozigbo came back from the Reserve/COVID-19 list to play the Chris Thompson role, catching four balls once the game was well out of hand in the fourth quarter. Robinson still got his four targets, converting all four for 16 yards. The Ravens have been giving it up to backs as well as the season has progressed, allowing 160 total yards to backs and 6 TDs over their last five.
D.J. Chark continued his struggles last week (Jacksonville QBs have a 73.0 passer rating when targeting Chark), catching 3-of-11 targets (1-of-5 from Minshew). His best days are with Minshew, so I am more bullish than I have been in weeks with Mike Glennon, but this is a much different situation from last season, when it was a one-man show. Laviska Shenault is a high draft pick and talented player and he and the resurgent Keelan Cole (7-67-1 on 12 targets last week) give Chark more competition for targets. Cole has been Minshew’s favorite, or most efficient WR to throw to (105.0 passer rating when targeted). Collin Johnson has also been in the mix, but most of that production came with Glennon.
Cole has the highest floor, which isn’t saying much with this group, and Chark is the swing-for-the-fences play at very low ownership in what could be a plus matchup due to injuries.
James O’Shaughnessy and Tyler Eifert have seen 12 targets apiece over their past three games. I won’t use either, but it goes to show what a mess all these JAX passing options are.
Ravens
.jpg)
Lamar Jackson has been getting it done of late, rushing for 13-94-1 and 9-124-2 in his two games since missing the Coronavirus Bowl with Pittsburgh. Those are two of his best three games this season on the ground, which has us all thinking about 2019 Lamar. Unlike some QBs who have more risk against bad teams in blowouts, if the Ravens blow out the Jags, it’s likely behind Jackson in one way or the other. If Jacksonville takes advantage of this depleted defense and makes this a game, he could go nuts in this spot, but either way he should get his 20-plus fantasy points against an also-injured Jaguars defense (fourth-most fantasy points per game allowed to QBs). He is the top option at the position and will be heavily owned. I currently have him on one of my three teams in three-max.
Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin are on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. They (and James Proche) could be activated in time for Sunday, but if they aren’t, that would mean Dez Bryant (who was just activated from the list), Willie Snead and Devin Duvernay would lead the way. Snead will see the most snaps and targets and showed his upside in Week 10 (5-64-2 on 7 targets versus New England). I’ll update the Ravens receivers once we have confirmation on who they’ll have available.
The best hookup for Jackson has been and still is Mark Andrews, who came back last week after missing two games to catch 5-78-0 on 7 targets on 67% of snaps. The issue with Andrews is just targets and health (2.0 fantasy points per target this season). He just needs to stay healthy (and he was not on the injury report this week) and needs to get more than the 6 targets a game he has averaged this season. Removing the No. 1 player in Ravens target share (Brown) would get him back into the range of 7-plus targets and into our lineups at $5.5k on DK.
Time for your weekly Baltimore backfield committee update. J.K. Dobbins played 37 snaps against Cleveland and got 13 carries for 53 yards and a TD. That’s a nice edge over Gus Edwards (16 snaps), who looked good again, rushing 7 times for 49 yards and 2 TDs. Dobbins has out-touched Edwards in the red zone 7-3 in their last two games. If this turns into a Baltimore blowout, I could see Edwards getting more run, but it appears like Dobbins is taking hold on this backfield (as he should). With all the WR issues and coming off a short week, I can see them getting Dobbins more work. Jacksonville has been torched for 224, 131, 206 and 107 rushing yards over their past four games with 4 TDs. They allow just under 30 fantasy points per game to backs, which at a 65% usage rate would lead to 19.5 fantasy points for Dobbins. Baltimore backs have averaged 4.83 YPC this season, which sets up nicely against Jacksonville, who have allowed 4.54 YPC to backs. Mark Ingram has played 6, 11 and 1 snaps in his last three and failed to get a touch last week.
Core plays: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews
GPP only: J.K. Dobbins, Willie Snead, James Robinson, D.J. Chark, Gardner Minshew, Keelan Cole
NE +2.5. O/U: 41.5
NE: 20 | MIA: 21.5
Pace and playcalling
This is not an appealing game from a number of perspectives, pace being one. Miami is seventh and New England fourth in overall pace. New England likes to run (second-highest run rate) and play keepaway, allowing the fewest plays per game. Miami allows the 10th fewest opponent plays, and both teams are in the bottom-seven in plays per game run on offense.
The New England pass D has been much improved, rising 15 spots in defensive pass DVOA ranks in the last three weeks. The Patriots have held Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert and Jared Goff to an average of 172.0 passing yards over their last three games.
Patriots
Cam Newton always has a shot to punch a couple goal-line TDs, but I have no interest in investing in him or this entire Patriots offense against a tough Miami D. Even last week, allowing 33 points to Patrick Mahomes, they looked very good. Kansas City is just on another level from the rest of the league offensively, so I am not going to hold that game against them and start playing guys like Newton and the rest of these New England players.
Dolphins
Jakeem Grant (hamstring) is questionable. He is one of three Dolphins receivers who are hobbling into Sunday’s game. DeVante Parker (hamstring) and Mike Gesicki (shoulder) are the other two, making this situation tentative. I will update as news rolls in, but the guy we need to cover regardless is Lynn Bowden Jr.. Bowden lined up as the slot WR on 35 of his 59 snaps last week, catching six-of-seven as the inside WR for 71 yards (7-78-0 overall). If all or even some of these guys are held out, Bowden becomes very interesting at $3.6k, and is a solid GPP play either way.
As you can see, per Sharp Football and NFL Next Gen Stats, Bowden’s route tree aligns well with the soft spot of the NE defense.
Tua Tagovailoa will have to overcome the Belichick curse, as Bill Belichick has held down rookie QBs for a couple decades. Tua was impressive last week, and his volume has been good over the past two games, throwing 39 and 28 times after 20 and 25 in his previous two games. This would be the definition of point chasing, with New England likely not able to score enough against this tough Miami D to pull Tua into another shootout. He is also getting back Matt Breida and possibly Salvon Ahmed to go along with DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird. Even if Ahmed returns, I don’t think we can count on him getting the Myles Gaskin workload with Breida back.
Core plays: Lynn Bowden Jr.
GPP only: Miami DST
SF -3. O/U: 45.5
SF: 23.5 | DAL: 21
49ers
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said he was optimistic George Kittle could return for Week 16, but he is OUT in Dallas. Deebo Samuel is also OUT.
It looked like Jeffery Wilson was going to be chalk, but Raheem Mostert will play and doesn’t even have an injury designation. That means more of a backfield committee for these two, who have handled 69 carries over their last three, with Mostert leading the way with 13 per game. This is a great spot for these RBs, with Dallas allowing the most adjusted line yards per carry and simply not executing basic principles in rush D that allow massive holes that have led to the most 20-yard rushes.
San Francisco has not run the ball well this season in terms of adjusted line yards, plummeting to 28th from eighth in 2019, but this is a get-right spot where Shanahan should be able to exploit the issues Dallas has.
Brandon Aiyuk has busted out with Nick Mullens at QB, averaging 18.14 FPPG in seven games with Mullens. In their last four games together, it has been to another level, averaging 12.5 targets per game for 7.5 receptions, 95 yards and 0.75 TDs per game (22.05 fantasy points per game). Rashard Robinson, his primary defender, has no chance to cover Aiyuk, who runs a lot of his routes into the softest spot of this bad defense. Mullens is also interesting at $5.1k for you multi-entry folks, just two games removed from showing a 25-point fantasy ceiling against Buffalo.
.png)
.png)
.png)
Cowboys
The major news in this one is the health of Ezekiel Elliott (calf), who is looking more and more like a game-time decision despite some reports saying he will play. Coach Mike McCarthy told Michael Gehlken of The Dallas Morning News that “all things look like [Elliott]’s going to play” in Sunday’s game against the 49ers. This makes no sense to me. I know they are technically in the NFC East playoff hunt, but this is a bad football team that should be resting Elliott after giving him that ridiculous contract. I suppose I am rooting for him to sit so Tony Pollard can get a start. Pollard is already making Elliott less and less appealing, with Zeke seeing 13 touches last week compared to 12 for Pollard.
Andy Dalton has 2 TD passes in two straight, but has topped out at 20 fantasy points and gets a much tougher matchup this week. San Francisco has run into some tough matchups and been exposed, but they are still a top-10 defense per DVOA. They are also top-12 in pass rush, which is kryptonite for Dalton (40% completion rate under pressure, 74% when clean).
CeeDee Lamb is down $2k from his $6.5k peak price, which is about right considering he has averaged 8.33 fantasy points per game in his last three. He has played much better at home with Dalton, averaging 16.1 DraftKings points per game in those four games and seeing 9.25 targets. We have gone after SF with slot pass catchers with success in the last two weeks (9-130-1 to Cole Beasley, and 6-43-0 to Logan Thomas last week). That said, I will still only be using him in GPPs, I don’t want to rely on Dalton on my main rosters.
Amari Cooper will see a lot of Richard Sherman and Jason Verrett, who at this point of their careers can be beaten by the talented Cooper, but it is not a matchup we need to attack on an 11-game slate with him tied to Dalton. Unlike Lamb, Cooper is still $6.4k, which puts him in a different tier and off my lineups this week.
Michael Gallup remains a punt option if you are looking for a $3.5k flex averaging 8.33 targets per game over his last three. These outside matchups are not optimal, but at $3.5k you don’t need optimal.
Core plays: Brandon Aiyuk, Tony Pollard (if Elliott sits)
GPP only: Raheem Mostert, Nick Mullens, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup
SEA -3.5. O/U: 44.5
SEA: 25.5 | WAS: 20.5
Washington ran it at a 57% rate in the second half with Dwayne Haskins under center last week and slowed it down about 4 seconds per play. They did play at the second-fastest pace in the first half last week and the second-fastest this season. Seattle has gotten slower compared to their fast-paced, high-pass-rate offense to start the season, falling back to the pack in both stats. They are still sixth in neutral-script pass rate this season (60%), but 29th in neutral pass rate since Week 9.
With the Seattle OL still struggling to pass protect, and Washington getting after QBs this season, I think we see a steady dose of Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde again, capping Russell Wilson’s attempts again. Last week it didn’t matter with the JV Jets in town but counting on 4 TD passes on 30 attempts or fewer is a losing battle.
Seahawks
Russell Wilson got very well in his “get well” game, throwing four passing touchdowns on just 27 pass attempts (he sat out the entire fourth quarter). This is not that matchup, with Seattle’s poor offensive line (30th adjusted sack rate allowed) facing Chase Young and this defensive line (fourth in adjusted sack rate, eighth in pressure rate). Wilson can buy time with his legs to offset the pressure, which is why he is third in pressured competition rate. The other risk with paying up for the expensive Wilson/DK Metcalf stack is gamescript. With SEA playing better on D, Haskins at QB and Antonio Gibson OUT, this is not a good spot for the Washington offense.
“Since Week 7, (CB) Kendall Fuller has allowed the most receiving touchdowns (5) while seeing the 10th-most targets (44) in coverage. Fuller better say his prayers this week as he’s going to match up against DK Metcalf. The lab-made Metcalf will run approximately 55% of his routes on Fuller’s side.”
Metcalf had an early injury scare against the Jets but ended up with a solid 6-61-1 line on 8 targets. His price is a bit much at this point. I love the guy, and if he goes off for one of his 30-point fantasy games, price is irrelevant, so link him with Wilson in your Seattle GPP stacks. He just won’t make it into the optimal or core lineup at $8.6k.
Tyler Lockett has been OK — 6-63-0 and 5-52-0 over his last two — but remains priced up with WRs who have been playing better as of late. Per our advanced DvP tool, Washington is first in slot FP allowed this season after holding down the SF slot pass catchers last week.
David Moore has 11 targets in his last three (Lockett 18, Metcalf 29).
Per PFF, Seattle gains a first down or touchdown on 31.3% of Chris Carson’s carries. That is the highest rate among starting running backs. Carson continues to be ultra-efficient, averaging just 14.3 touches per game this season, down from 21 in 2019. He has raised his fantasy points per touch from 0.7 to 1.2, which is how he has remained the RB7 in fantasy, 1.5 fantasy points per game better than he was in 2019. He also missed out on the fourth quarter last week but still managed 18.8 FP. Washington is now third in fantasy points per game allowed to backs, giving up 3.9 YPC to the position.
Football Team
Antonio Gibson and Alex Smith appear to be OUT, leaving the backfield trio of Dwayne Haskins, J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber to take on the visiting Seahawks.
Seattle has gotten much improved on defense, moving into the 11 spot in rush DVOA and 19th overall after being in the basement to start the season. They are seventh in QB pressure rate and have allowed 14.5 PPG in their last four, which is a bad combo against a Washington OL that is 31st in pressure rate allowed.
Seattle is tied with the Rams with 4.2 yards per play allowed and a 56.38% completion rate over the last three. This seems to set up well for McKissic and all his targets and receptions out of the backfield, but I can’t even trust Haskins to do that correctly. In addition, he targets his back at a significantly lower rate than Smith (20% vs. 31%).
Terry McLaurin is not as high on my radar this week as some, but I get it given his talent and primary matchup with D.J. Reed, who has still been struggling while the rest of the D improved. Reed only saw four targets against the two NY teams so didn’t allow anything, but prior to that he allowed 22-of-27 targets in coverage since Week 8.
Seahawks CB Quinton Dunbar, who hasn’t played since Week 9 against Buffalo, could return in a revenge spot. We won’t likely know officially until Sunday morning.
Logan Thomas has been great in his last two games, but he is in the same bucket with all these guys in an underratedly tough matchup (eighth-fewest FP to tight ends, 59% catch rate allowed) and with a new QB.
Core plays: Seattle DST, Chris Carson
GPP only: Russell Wilson/DK Metcalf stack, J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin, Tyler Lockett, Washington DST
TB -6. O/U: 50.5
TB: 28.5 | ATL: 22
Buccaneers
In what can be described as a shitty week, Ronald Jones had surgery to insert a pin into his pinky finger as well as going on the Reserve/COVID-19 list.
Enter Leonard Fournette — yes, the guy who was a healthy scratch just last week. I get it, usage should be there, in a game they are favored and projected to score close to 30 points. The problem I have is he projected to be 20% ownership or higher at $4.5k on DK, which feels dirty. Atlanta is not a plus matchup for RBs, ranking sixth in adjusted line yards allowed and fifth in RB yards allowed per carry. They give up the same average production to backs as the Rams, so this is not a guarantee by any stretch. Atlanta has also tightened up on RB catches — at least they had been before Austin Ekeler touched them up last week. There’s a reason Fournette was relegated to the bench — he is averaging 3.6 true YPC (per Player Profiler) and sits 50th or lower in a number of efficiency stats. We saw LeSean McCoy play 16 snaps last week with Fournette out, and Tampa could mix in rookie bust-so-far Ke’Shawn Vaughn if you are like me and looking for reasons to fade this guy.
Another reason for fading Fournette — Tom Brady and his “former Pro Bowl” roster of pass catchers against a porous Falcons secondary. We knew when they added Antonio Brown to go with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski that there would be an issue with distribution of targets, and that is what we have. It’s a nasty WR committee that has seen the supposed alpha of the group (Evans) catching six passes over his past two games. He is still the man in the red zone, trailing only Davante Adams in goal-line targets, so he is my preferred connection with Brady once again.
It’s the same story for last year’s fantasy GOAT, Godwin, who posted a nasty 2-25-0 line last week in a dream matchup. That was mainly due to low play volume and Brown seeing 5 targets, which was good enough to tie for the team high with Brady only passing 23 times, by far his season low. That should not be a thing again this week with Atlanta allowing the fourth-most pass attempts per game (39).
Falcons
Matt Ryan has been hard to watch as of late, averaging 10 fantasy points over his last four, which almost seems impossible given his track record in Atlanta. But without Julio Jones and against this TB defense (fifth in DVOA), this is an easy fade.
The same applies to these terrible RBs we have faded all season. Tampa is a brutal matchup for all RBs and running schemes, but against this poor Atlanta run-blocking line (29th in RB yards per carry), it is a major mismatch. With the way Tampa can make a team one-dimensional and Ryan’s struggles under pressure (Tampa is second in pressure rate), the Bucs DST is one of the best plays on the board after the obvious Rams.
Calvin Ridley without Julio Jones is a well-known split, with him averaging 21.28 fantasy points when Julio sits. This week he is priced way up and gets a tough draw against the RB outside CBs, including a likely shadow from Carlton Davis for 70% of his routes. I posted his receptions prop, OVER 5.5 catches on FTNBets, because I think they will be behind and he is likely to get 10-plus targets (he averages 10.8 without Julio), but a 6-catch, 60-yard game at his price isn’t very appealing to me in DFS at high ownership. I will run him back on a Tampa stack, but I won’t have him in the optimal lineup.
I have no interest in Russell Gage or Hayden Hurst either, which is more a condemnation of Ryan then them. There are too many plays I prefer more in other games to go here in a three-max.
Core plays: Tampa DST, Leonard Fournette (He will be a popular cash play, but I think I am full fading. I will have the final verdict in the Sunday morning update, but for now I am not playing him on any of my three-max teams).
GPP only: Tom Brady/Mike Evans stack (If you MME, I would get a stack with Brady/Godwin and Brady/Brown as well. You can also throw in Gronk on any of them as a TD-dependent TE against an ATL team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs)
NYJ +15. O/U: 43.5
NYJ: 13 | LAR: 30.5
Pace and playcalling
Rams games are 0-6 to the UNDER at home this season, with those games averaging more than 13 PPG less than the Vegas total, the most of any team.
The Jets have a league-low -13.7 net yards per drive, while the Rams are second with a +9.17.
This is a mismatch for the ages, with the Rams first in both yards and points per drive allowed and the Jets 32nd in both yards and points per drive gained.
When the Rams are up by at least 7 points in the second half, they only pass on 35% of plays. That is the scary part about using the Rams passing-game options, as they may not be on the field in the second half if these teams play like they have been lately.
If that scenario doesn’t play out, and Los Angeles is caught up in a game where Jared Goff and his WRs need to play aggressively, this is the best stack of the day. That potential has these passing options all projected to be around 15% ownership, which is higher than I expected. Rams only pass at the 25th highest rate this season, so a repeat of his game against NE is the more likely scenario (137 passing yards and 1 TD pass.
Jets
Adam Gase has said he will continue to use Frank Gore and Ty Johnson in a committee, despite La’Mical Perine being eligible to come off IR.
I want nothing to do with any Jets player this week — there is contrarian, and then there is playing Jets in LA facing a team that has allowed 11 PPG at home this season against actual NFL teams.
The Rams DST has double-digit points in three of its last four after putting up 21 fantasy points against New England. The unit is averaging 9.5 fantasy points on DK this season. As always, this defense is easier to fit in under the cap on FD, but I also plan to pay up a little on DK, despite a $4.5k price tag.
Sam Darnold could have Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims in the lineup, but that’s still going to be a hard pass for me.
Rams
Los Angeles makes stacking easy — pair either Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp with Goff on a team and cross it off your list. As much as I prefer Cam Akers and the running attack, the Jets are awful in pass coverage, so a 300-yard, multi-score game is just a matter of attempts (New York is allowing 7.7 pass yards per attempt). Woods is again my preferred choice, coming off a four-game stretch with 46 targets to lead the team, but I would stack both Kupp and him together. Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson are not getting consistent enough usage with all active to use any in this spot, but the TEs (Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett) have some appeal to me in GPPs with more entries and multiple lineups. The Jets have allowed 12 TDs and over 17 DraftKings points per game to the position. Both guys have nearly identical usage, so it is a pain in the ass to roster either. I will just submit a lineup with each.
Cam Akers has now seen 50 carries and four targets in the last two games and has fully taken over the role of workhorse back, playing 79% of the snaps last week. In the three prior seasons, Rams running backs have averaged 18.7 touchdowns per game, inflated by Gurley, but the position has a ton of touchdown equity in this offense. While Akers has been awesome on the ground and shown off his big-play ability, he has only gone into the end zone once on his 54 opportunities, despite dominating red-zone and goal-line work. Now the Rams are 17.5-point home favorites and take on a Jets team that looks like it has quit. Yes, they are worse against the pass than the run, but they can’t stop ice cream from melting in a blizzard. Allowing 24.4 DraftKings points per game to the position, Jets linebackers have been picked on, with only one team allowing more targets per game to the position than the Jets. If Akers sees increased usage in the pass game, and gets his touchdown regression, he could be a top-three scorer at the position this weekend
Core plays: Cam Akers, Los Angeles DST, Robert Woods
GPP only: Jared Goff/Cooper Kupp stack
PHI +6.5. O/U: 49.5
PHI: 21 | AZ: 28
Eagles
Jalen Hurts lowers the floors and ceilings of all the pass-catchers, with him passing for 167 yards on 5.6 YPA last week and connecting on just 56.7% of his pass attempts. Dallas Goedert is such a stud, he overcame the low passing volume to lead Philly with six targets (4-43-0). But that is not enough to hang our hats on with Zach Ertz, Greg Ward (2-20-0 on five targets), Jalen Reagor (2-46-0 on four targets) and Alshon Jeffery (1-15-1) all in the mix.
You’re playing Hurts for the rushing again. As outlined here extensively before the matchup with New England, Arizona has given up healthy yardage to all the rushing QBs they have faced this season. I know many are going to run Hurts out in cash, and I understand the logic with a nice floor built in with his legs, but what if the 100 yards is only 50 this week (58.5 is his rushing prop), and he puts up another 175 or so passing yards without the one-yard TD? What if he throws a pick and/or loses a fumble (he fumbled last week but it was recovered by Philly)? Then you are looking at 10 fantasy points and wondering why you chased at higher ownership and a higher price. Right now, I have him on one of my three-max teams, and I will likely stick him in my cash lineup on FanDuel at $6.9k, but I don’t feel great about it. Check back on Sunday for my final call with Hurts, as I am admittingly struggling with this decision.
Miles Sanders was the biggest benefactor to Hurts taking over. He saw his biggest workload and snap share, getting 18 touches for 136 total yards and two scores after registering just 18 touches for 53 yards in his previous two games combined. We have seen mobile QBs help RBs out many times in the past, with teams assigning a spy on the QB, running lanes and missed assignments are created more often. Like several other times this season, Sanders used a big play (an 82-yard TD run, his third run of 70 or more yards on the season) to pad his stat line. I feel like this is also point chasing, since without the big play he would have finished with 54 total yards.
Cardinals
Kyler Murray was back running last week, rushing 13 times after just 15 carries in his previous three games combined. We talked about this extensively since he suggested the injury against Seattle — until we see him running again, we can’t use him in DFS at his high price. Now, Murray has shown it to us and he goes home, where he is averaging more than 31 fantasy points per game. He is the main reason I don’t know if I will use Hurts in cash, as I can just pay $1.1k more for freakin’ Kyler, who has rushed for 60-plus yards six times this season and faces a Philly D that has allowed big rushing games to Daniel Jones, Lamar Jackson and 33 yards on 5 carries last week to Taysom Hill. Murray is also a far better passer, with a legit WR1, facing a depleted Eagles secondary that could be without Rodney McLeod, Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox. With Slay out, you have to upgrade DeAndre Hopkins to WR1 status on the slate.
Kenyan Drake gets the strange matchup with an Eagles rush D that remains tough on a yards-per-carry basis (fifth in adjusted line yards allowed, third in RB yards per carry allowed), while also allowing big runs of 20-plus yards (third-most). They have also allowed the third-most rushing TDs, so Drake may have us on tilt for two quarters and then pop. He trails only Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott in goal-line carries, which is why he has 5 TDs in his past four games.
Core plays: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, Jalen Hurts
GPP only: Kenyan Drake, Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, Christian Kirk
KC -3. O/U: 51.5
KC: 27.5 | NO: 24
Chiefs
This is the late-slate hammer, with Patrick Mahomes taking on Drew Brees and the Saints in the dome. Mahomes has “only” scored 24 and 22 DraftKings points in his last two games after throwing 3 INTs last week in Miami. New Orleans has been a tough draw for QBs, but I don’t see that mattering much here as Mahomes goes for 300 for the seventh time in seven games, averaging (I had to double check to confirm this was right) 384 passing yards over that span. He is the QB1 for me in terms of raw points — good defense or not, I don’t see the Saints holding him to under 300 and multiple scores.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire played a healthy 74% of offensive snaps last week, and got his most usage since Week 6, but even against a Miami defense that can be run on, he managed just 2.0 YPC. I know Miles Sanders had his way with this D a week ago, but I am going to call that an anomaly; this is still not a defense we want to attack with RBs.
Stacking Mahomes with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is expensive — you would need to round out your roster with a lot of value — but it is one of the more bankable (and enjoyable) stacks this season and possibly in NFL history by the time these three are done. Kelce leads the entire NFL in receiving yardage after posting five 100-yard games in his last six. These two are averaging a combined 13 receptions for 186.2 yards per game and just under 2 TDs per game (74 combined fantasy points on average for this stack on DK).
With Mahomes throwing so much, and putting up such huge yardage totals, you can use a third player in your stack. Sammy Watkins makes the most sense, playing 20 slot snaps per game and seeing about 13% of Mahomes’ targets. New Orleans has allowed more than 15 fantasy points per game to slot pass catchers, by far their most vulnerable section of the field, making his $4.6k a nice fit for our stacks.
Saints
Taysom Hill will give way to Drew Brees, who will return without his WR1, Michael Thomas. Kansas City is more known for allowing rushing production, but the Chiefs have shown vulnerability against QBs, including Tua Tagovailoa’s 31.04 fantasy points last week. His two TD passes made it five straight games allowing 2 or more and 12 in their last five games, including two to Drew Lock.
Alvin Kamara is back in our lives and a lock for my rosters. Like the Kansas City stack, the Kamara splits with and without Michael Thomas— and now adding in the Drew Brees factor — make him the safest play on the board, especially when factoring in his lowered price due to his weeks with Hill and Thomas in the lineup. The graphic above simply looks at Kamara with Brees vs. with Hill, but when you add Thomas’ absence in the equation, the numbers pop even more.
Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, and Tre’Quan Smith also become legit options again, as illustrated by our splits tool, from our own Derek Brown:
With Michael Thomas ruled out, Drew Brees will lean on Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook in a game where the Saints will have to light up the scoreboard. Brees can carve up this pass defense that’s ranked 22nd in DVOA against short passing. Without Thomas this season, Sanders and Cook have seen their numbers jump across the board. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards (780) to the tight end position. Sanders should find room on the outside versus Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward. Since Breeland’s return in Week 5, the duo has combined to allow a 55% catch rate and eight receiving touchdowns (81 targets).
Core plays: Alvin Kamara, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes
GPP only: Drew Brees, Tre’Quan Smith, Emmanuel Sanders, Sammy Watkins, Jared Cook
Top Stacks:
Titans + Hock/Swift (also using Marvin on these stacks)
LAR (much like TEN, all the ownership is flowing to the RBs) – No need to run it back with a Jets player
INDY/HOU
KC/NO
CASH/CORE PLAYS
Core (FD): Lamar – Henry – Akers – Kamara – Tre’Quan – Aiyuk – Kmet – Rams DST
Core (DK): Lamar – Henry – Akers – Kamara – Bowden – Tre’Quan- Aiyuk – Cards DST
The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE (3-Max + SE)
Trubisky + ARob (these two almost made the CORE) + Irv Smith + Jefferson
J. Taylor (was in the CORE until Kamara)
Kyler + Nuk
Kelce + Manny Sanders
Mark Andrews
Underweight – McKissic, Ridley, Cooks, Lenny F, Monty, Hurts
Low(er) owned one-offs: K. Drake, Dobbins, Keke Coutee, Pittman, Mostert
8:42 PST UPDATE
ZEKE IS OUT – POLLARD BECOMES A CORE PLAY ON BOTH SITES. I like my main LU as it is on DK, so I am just sticking with it in GPPs, as Pollard should be VERY popular. On FD, his price is egregious, just need to lock him over there at $4.7k.
8:55 PST UPDATE
Stafford is IN – He likes to play through injuries so this is not a huge surprise. This makes me like our TENN passing stack even more, but you should also get in a Stafford stack or two with Jones and Hockenson
9:20 PST UPDATE
Both PARKER and GESICKI ARE OUT — BOWDEN already in the CORE, so not much to discuss here.
