Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to The Breakdown for Week 12, a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend DFS slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.
I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 12.
#FTNDaily
All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.
New York Jets @ Houston Texans
NYJ +2.5 @ HOU, O/U 44.5
Implied team totals: HOU 23.5, NYJ 21
Pace, Playcalling, Stats & Trends
HOU is 3-1 ATS at home despite being 1-3 on the scoreboard. This will be the first game they are favored.
Jets are 2-8 ATS (0-4 on the road).
HOU is 3-1 the OVER at home (5-1 to the UNDER on the road).
Jets are 32nd in yards and points per drive allowed.
HOU is 32nd in yards and points per drive gained, but have been much better with Tyrod Taylor, averaging 22+ points per game in his 3 starts (11.71 in 7 games without him).
As a result of being behind all season, NYJ have the highest overall pass rate (8th neutral).
HOU hasn’t been much better but has stuck to a higher rush rate (15th overall, 15th neutral, 17th when down +8).
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
HOU DST is projected to be the (ultra) chalk at $2.3k on DK after posting 15 and 16 FP against MIA and TEN (6 INTs, 6 sacks, 4 def. fumble recoveries). It is understandable given their dominance lately, but in GPPs you should fade a 25% DST, especially a bad team like HOU.
Personally, I think they should do away with DST, add one or two flex spots and/or a QB2 over DST, so I will hedge and put them on 1-of-3, 3-max teams. It will be too painful to fully fade and not cash because of a chalk DST going off at $2.3k. On FD they raised them to $4.9k making it a good GPP play as a low-owned DST.
GPP/MME
Brandin Cooks has had massive volatility this season with six games in the top 22 (3 in the top-12) and four games in the bottom-50 (2 in the bottom-70). He has averaged 1.43 fewer targets a game with Tyrod Taylor under center, though with just 3 games I don’t think it is enough to factor in. We did see what happened if HOU controls the game last week in their win in TEN, Cooks ran just 23 routes and saw three targets (43 routes, 9.5 targets p/g in two losses prior). HOU also used Chris Conley, Pharaoh Brown and David Johnson a lot last week. They have used Danny Amendola, Nico Collins and Brevin Jordan lately too, which is why Cooks is not in cash/SE. It’s one thing to be in this offense while seeing a 30% target share, it is another at 13% as he saw last week.
QB roulette continues in Jetsville with Zach Wilson replacing Joe Flacco (COVID-19). This is not a guy I want to invest my money in, if he hits at sub-1% I will tip my hat to those galaxy brain geniuses.
Elijah Moore played a season-high in snaps last week and ran a route on 81% of Flacco’s dropbacks (31% target share), also a career high. He broke out in tough matchups while changing QBs and has to do it again this week. As the splits tool illustrates, Moore struggled with Wilson (9-79-0 on 22 targets), but it’s such a small sample, and they were not even using him as a full-time player, so I don’t think this is the end for Moore, it’s not like he went off with Brady and Manning.
Michael Carter is OUT, leaving Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman as value plays in a prime matchup (HOU 4.79 RB YPC, 32nd). Each played 28% last week, but Coleman led with 27% of rush attempts (8% for Johnson). Johnson was non-existent last week but saw 17% of team targets just two weeks ago with Carter on the field, so he is my preference if forced to decide. I am hoping some news surfaces to make me feel better about that choice.
Corey Davis is a solid WR3 who can sneak into WR1 status when he hits his ceiling, something he has done twice this season with Wilson at QB (26 & 24 FP in weeks 1 and 4). With three WRs in the mix at 20%+ target share tied to an inefficient QB, there will be volatility.
Note: Davis (groin) is currently listed as doubtful.
Jamison Crowder is the 3rd, seeing 6-of-7 targets for 44 yards and a TD with Flacco. I will keep Davis in my MME player but prefer Moore and have no interest in Crowder.
This matchup features the worst rush offense against the worst rush defense, but Phillip Lindsay was released so it is just Rex Burkhead and David Johnson remaining. Burkhead leads the team with 5 red zone and 3 goal-line carries and is dirt cheap. He could get 20+ touches here against a team that allows 182.6 total yards per game to RBs (most FP on the most TDs to the position)
Tyrod Taylor has looked terrible in two starts as a passer (36-67, no TDs, and 3 INTs on 5 YPC). He was able to run his way to a QB11 finish last week thanks to 2 rushing TDs, but I am not banking on that happening again. This is a matchup to attack (last in YPA allowed, 9.7 YPA in their last 3), with only the low attempts potentially preventing bigger production. I will game-stack him with Cooks and Moore on a couple lineups with low expectations.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts
TB -2.5 @ IND, O/U 51.5
Implied team totals: TB 27, IND 24.5
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
**Strategy Note**
The key players in this game are all so expensive that you simply can’t do a true “game stack.” You will need to mix and match combos with value plays and even then it is challenging. If it was ever a week to mass multi-enter, this is it. There are so many high-end players at all positions that there is simply no way to get exposure to them all without submitting multiple lineups. I will (as always) put out my CORE lineup on SUN, but it won’t be easy with so many ways to spend up.
If you need help learning how to build lineups with the FTN optimizer be sure to watch Kyle Murray’s instructional videos (bottom of the page), watch “The Optimal”, and ask him questions in discord. He and David Jones are happy to help any subscriber with MME strategy/tips.
TB continues to chuck it at a 67% (neutral) pass rate and move quickly (9th).
IND (5th in point p/g), moves at a methodic (slow) pace (28th), and passes at a league-average rate. They want to run but will be challenged to stick to it against TB.
TB has seen the lowest rush rate against, a combo of scoring a lot (30.9, 1st) and having a good rush defense (2nd in RB yards per carry allowed).
Both teams have big DVOA splits that indicate a potential shootout, with IND 20th in pass and 2nd in rush DVOA. TB is 7th in pass and 4th in rush DVOA as they continue to climb the ranks, but they have allowed 72% of their TDs via the pass (3rd).
IND has allowed 83% of their TDs via the pass (1st).
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
I have heard “Tom Brady hasn’t been as good without Antonio Brown,” and that is true, but barely (-.91 FPPG), and thus not enough to factor into our DFS process. Pressure has always been the way to get Brady uncomfortable, which is how WFT and NE held him to under 15 FP. Surprisingly, IND has not generated pressure this season (29th in pressure, last in QB hurry % per Pro Football Reference). Brady has 19 TDs in his last 6 games, IND has allowed a league-high 25 passing TDs. He has also dominated indoors over his last three seasons (335 passing yards, 3 TDs p/g).
Chris Godwin should bounce back after an unusually low-usage game against the Giants (12.8% target share, 27% in prior three games). He runs into Kenny Moore in the slot, who has allowed the most yards inside this season despite a fairly easy schedule with games against NYJ, JAX, HOU, MIA. He has taken advantage of those teams while allowing AJ Brown to post 10-155-1 (46% slot rate), Cooper Kupp, 9-163-2 and Tyler Lockett, 4-100-2.
IND has also been lit up by outside WRs, specifically WR1s (29th DVOA against WR1s), allowing ceiling games to Marquise Brown, Elijah Moore, Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks and DeVante Parker. They even allowed Stefon Diggs to catch 2 TD passes last week in the blowout. They are one of 5 teams allowing 40+ FPPG to WRs on DK. Mike Evans has been inconsistent as of late (3-of-5 with 4 targets or less, two with 10+), but is still option 1A in your Brady stacks thanks to 10 TDs, including 6 in his last 4 games. Both WRs can be used as one-offs as well.
IND has also given it up to TEs, 5th most FP, 24th DVOA vs. TEs on the most targets p/g (9.1).
Rob Gronkowski returned to play 59% of the snaps while catching 6-71-1 on 8 targets. He is averaging 17.8 FPPG on DK in his four non-injury games which would make him the TE1 on the season.
This is tough, we usually just avoid RBs against TB, but IND is blocking so well (5th in adjusted yards gained and 2nd in RB YPC), and Jonathan Taylor is running like a man possessed (1st in juke rate, evaded tackles, breakaway runs and expected points added per player profiler). I will have Jonathan Taylor in stacks with Brady-Gronk-WR+ Taylor, as well as Wentz + JT stacks, but I still can’t rank him over Christian McCaffrey. TB remains brutal against backs, T-1st with NO for the fewer FP allowed and should have their stud DT back, Vita Vea.
JT continues to get set up in the red zone at an insane clip, averaging 6+ touches a game inside the 20. That has led to 15 TDs on 102 total yards p/g. I think they look to get him more involved as a pass-catcher against TB with designed plays, which along with the TDs, rushing volume and TD upside should get him another RB1 finish.
GPP/MME
Leonard Fournette is in a similar spot as JT with a tough matchup on the ground but tons of upside with passing work and TDs in a high-total game. Lenny has caught 14-of-15 targets in his last two games, finishing with 13 and 17 FP without a TD. The rushing yards have been tough to come by, and we saw Ronald Jones vulture a TD last week, but we still want to use him both with Brady and as a run-back to Carson Wentz stacks.
I like Michael Pittman, but I can’t back him at 20%+ ownership. TB has been improving in the secondary as noted in their DVOA rank, and Pittman has not been the usage monster we want in a chalk WR (6 or fewer targets in 5-of-6). What the public is hoping for is another game like TEN, where Pittman busted out for 15 targets and 30.6 FP. I will have him in game stacks but will fade as a one-off at his high ownership.
Breshad Perriman was moved back to the practice squad after his appearance on MNF. That allows for Scotty Miller to be activated on SUN (game-time decision). If Miller is OUT again we can go back to Tyler Johnson in Brady stacks, though all of them take a hit with Gronk back.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
PHI -3.5 @ NYG, O/U 46
Implied team totals: PHI 24.75, NYG 21.25
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
Since going to the “Ravens offense,” PHI is last in neutral pass rate. Over those 4 games, they have played with the lead for 168 snaps (4th most) and have gone down to 32% while running a play every 30 seconds (slow).
PHI has been behind for 70 plays during these four games and passed at 47% (last), so unless NYG can pull some offense out of their asses (16.6 PPG, last 3) we will see more of the same from the Eagles.
Jason Garrett was fired, putting Freddie Kitchens in charge of this juggernaut. I expect a similar pace and pass rate which were both league average.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
As discussed last week, a high tide raises all ships, which means Miles Sanders, even in a 3-way committee should get volume in an offense averaging 42.7 rush attempts p/g (last 3, 1st). He got 16 rushing attempts on just 46% of the snaps with Jordan Howard leaving with injury after playing 17% and seeing 10 rush attempts (not even sure how that is possible).
Per Eliot Crist, “The Giants rank 31st in adjusted line yards and 24th in second level yards, while being bottom in both fantasy points and rushing yards allowed. Per our offensive efficiency tool the Eagles project for the second-most line yards of any team Sunday as well.”
I expect Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell (healthy scratch last week) to take about 20% of the RB rush attempts, leaving about 30 attempts for Sanders to share with his QB. That gives Sanders a 16-rush attempt floor which is hard to find at his price.
Saquon Barkley has my antenna up, especially with Kadarius Toney DOUBTFUL. Toney led the team with a 32% target share and I don’t think Kenny Golladay or Darius Slayton will have much success against this Philly zone coverage scheme that has allowed the 2nd fewest FP to WRs this season. That leaves Saquon and Evan Engram as the likely target leaders for Daniel Jones (Kyle Rudolph, Kaden Smith, Dante Pettis and Sterling Shepard are also OUT). PHI allows the 3rd-most RB targets and 2nd-most RB receptions. Barkley has averaged 5.6 rec and 49.4 rec yards in his last three without injury. PHI allows 146.8 total yards per game to backs (25th).
Evan Engram is a scary player to tout as (likely) chalk, as it seems like he is always a play away from joining those injured players on the bench, but the opportunity, price and matchup are so good that he is making it on to some lineups. Eagles give up 7.4 rec., & 73.7 yards p/g to TEs (both 32nd). They also have allowed the most TDs to TEs.
Jalen Hurts continues to be a fantasy beast, finishing as QB6 & QB3 over his last two, looking a lot like Lamar in this system. He has averaged 63.2 rush yards in his last 4 games, making up for some bad TD luck with 3 rushing scores last week.
Dallas Goedert is projected to be the chalk at TE after posting 5-68-0. His target share has been great lately, but everything is relative, meaning a high target share in a low passing offense is a bit of a mirage. TE is a volatile position and a low passing offense compounds that. It is a good (not great) matchup, and we are looking for paths to bust when fading or being underweight on a popular player. I am a big Goedert fan boy, but I don’t know about paying up for him over Pat Freiermuth if he is indeed chalk.
GPP/MME
If the Giants did flip the expected script, Boston Scott could have his way again with this Giants defense. He should be the “passing down, 2-min offense, long down and distance back,” but with this offense operating like it is, he will need PHI to fall way behind or (knocks on wood) something were to happen to Sanders.
DeVonta Smith is doing his best Hollywood Brown impression (circa 2019-20). Smith has 37%, 27%, and 26% of team targets in his last 3 games, but in a system that only gets you 6 targets a game (4.75 targets p/g, last 4). He has produced two 20+ FP games in those four games on 3 TDs, which has put his price up to the highest point of the season. If you want to stack Hurts, he is in play, but only as a GPP/MME only player.
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins
CAR -1.5 @ MIA, O/U 42
Implied team totals: CAR 21.75, MIA 20.25
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
CAR has thrown to their RBs at a league-high 38.6% since Christian McCaffrey’s return (18% when he was out). I don’t think there are many players (if any other) that can change a team’s play-calling like CMC.
CAR also turned up the pace with Cam Newton and McCaffrey’s first game as starters. They passed more in neutral, thanks to all those CMC targets (18 last two games).
MIA ranks first in pace and fourth in neutral pace rates overall, but last week they were 19th, with a straight 50/50 split against the Jets. They can’t run (31st in adjusted line & RB YPC so don’t even try). That mix sets up poorly for MIA, with CAR 5th in pass and 20th in rush DVOA. The place to attack CAR is on the ground, but I don’t think MIA has it in them.
MIA D has turned it on over their last 3 games, allowing 12 PPG over their win streak. I am not sure how much I am buying it, two of those games were against Jets and Jaguars, with the (very) strange TNF game being the notable win over BAL.
CAR has allowed 262 total yards a game on the road this season (1st), 28 yards better than BUF.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Christian McCaffrey’s finishes this season with a 50%+ snap count. RB1, RB3, RB4, RB3. Not sure you need me here. He is CMC, he is the RB1.
Newton got a significant price increase on FD, now sitting as the QB3 behind Brady and Hurts. I don’t mind it and will still get exposure over there in tournaments. Cam is averaging 1.15 FP per dropback this season, and though a short sample, it is the best we have seen this season (Hurts .75, 1st). It will come down as the volume increases, but that kind of efficiency is elite. DK was lazy, leaving Cam at $5.6k, which makes him the easy cash game/chalk QB of the week. MIA likes to blitz (1st), but only has the 12th-best pressure rate, which is why their secondary (which plays a lot of man to man) is 28th in explosive pass rate allowed.
With MIA giving up big pass plays, you can take a shot on DJ Moore or even Robby Anderson in hopes they get behind this D for a long TD catch (MME only). The issue with Moore is his price, it should be adjusted down at least $1k on each site, making him a tough sell for those looking for value.
GPP/MME
Myles Gaskin has taken advantage of weak opponents lately, hitting a season-high in snaps and touches against the Jets (26). It will be tougher against CAR, and the YPC won’t be pretty, but he is discounted enough to put him in play where I need a flex to complete a stack (especially on Yahoo). He has shown some upside as a pass-catcher, so if CAR gets a lead he will stay in the mix.
Jaylen Waddle is too expensive on FD but I don’t mind him on DK and Yahoo where he remains a relative value when considering he is 6th in targets p/g, averaging 6 receptions p/g. I am a volume junkie, so these players appeal to me at low ownership, and there’s nothing worse than rostering players that don’t see touches.
Mike Gesicki has seen 60.5% of his targets as a slot WR, CAR has been solid against both slot WRs and TEs, so the matchup is nothing to chase. That said, the TE position is thin and Gesicki gets a (small) bump with Adam Shaheen OUT, so I threw him in the GPP section. Those Shaheen snaps will likely just fall to Durham Smythe, who is interesting to watch this week, and certainly, a “showdown/MME” type play. He matched Gesicki with a 71% snap rate last week and saw 5 targets. Again, Gesicki is the slot WR, so Smyth is the TE1.
The oddsmakers have assigned Tua Tagovailoa and the Fish a 20-point team total, better than just TEN on this slate. CAR likes to blitz too (6th), but they get home more often (1st), which is not a good setup for Tua, who like most young QBs struggle under pressure/against the blitz. That makes the 3 guys above better for run-backs on Cam stacks than on full-blown Tua stacks.
MIA added Phillip Lindsay because they really needed one more mediocre RB for their stretch run to nowhere. I don’t think he will play this week with him being added WED.
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
TEN +6 @ NE, O/U 44.5
Implied team totals: NE 25.25, TEN 19.25
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
TEN limps into NE with the lowest total on the slate without Derrick Henry. As the splits tool shows, life has been hard for the Titans without their MVP, and now they will be without AJ Brown and Julio Jones.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
NE DST seems like the play, with TEN getting sacked and turning it over 5 times last week. TEN allows 2.8 sacks per game (T-4th most). NE is 3rd in takeaways, averaging 2.7 p/g over their last 3 games (2nd). Turnovers can be fickle, so it is NE’s 9.26% sack rate that has me thinking it is repeatable.
The NE offense is killing it, but they are a brutal team for fantasy with their distribution of targets and rush opportunities. Mac Jones has been great in real life but has one game over 20+ FP. I will get in a few NE passing stacks in GPPs with Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, &/or Kendrick Bourne, but it doesn’t excite me. With Hunter Henry catching all the TDs (and nothing else), plus Jonnu Smith in a revenge game, who knows where the TDs will come from. With Agholor the cheapest of the three I suppose I prefer him, but I hate these kinds of stacks.
I will also mix in some NE RB + DST stacks with the same thought process in mind, hoping I select the RB that ends up with the TDs. They officially have a 3-way RB committee with Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden scheduled to be active (disregard the injury designations, that is just NE being NE). I don’t think we need to worry about pass-catching specialist Bolden against this version of the Titans, leaving us with just Stevenson and Harris to take fliers on. I prefer Harris if forced to choose.
GPP/MME
Adrian Peterson was released, Jeremy McNichols is OUT, leaving just D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard to play RB. Foreman was hurt last game and played just 19% of snaps, leaving Hilliard all the RB snaps (63%). Hilliard ran a WR1 amount of routes, 39 to be exact, which is 3x what Foreman has seen in three games. The only thing NE has shown any vulnerability to is the RB pass (2nd in targets, 3rd in receptions) putting him in play where you need a value RB2/Flex.
The Pats have outscored their opponents 84-13 over their past three games, so Hilliard should have the script he needs on full PPR sites.
Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars
ATL -1 @ JAX, O/U 46.5
Implied team totals: ATL 23.75, JAX 22.75
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
This game will at least move at a good pace, with ATL 7th, and JAX 8th in neutral pace. Both teams have been trailing since training camp, so they have high overall pass rates (8th and 9th), but JAX has more interest in running the ball (11th rush rate, neutral). It is a classic swag bowl, two teams that stink without key players, which means it has a huge range of outcomes.
Cordarrelle Patterson is already practicing and appears on track to return after missing Week 11 with an ankle injury.
With Patterson out, Mike Davis still only managed six touches for 21 yards. Davis was out-touched by Qadree Ollison (11 touches for 36 yards) while Wayne Gallman only had one carry in the game.
Prior to injury, Patterson accounted for 25.6% of the Atlanta yards from scrimmage (sixth among backs) and 36.8% of the team touchdowns (which leads all backs). In his games without Calvin Ridley, Patterson has seen target shares of 20.0%, 18.5% and 20.0% before injury in Week 10.
The Jaguars are also good against the run, allowing 3.6 YPC to backs (third) while being fourth in receiving points allowed per game (8.3) to backs, so this is no soft matchup. Patterson, however, has been such a large part of the offense and has carried a high floor, so he is a solid RB2 option.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
James Robinson is easily the best play on JAX. He practiced in full on Friday which is a good sign after playing hurt. Still, he saw 100% of the RB touches last week and is averaging a solid 18 FPPG at home this season, despite this offense being so bad. ATL is nothing to fear against the run and could be without Deion Jones, who was added to the practice report on Friday, never a good sign. ATL has allowed the 5th-most FP to the position thanks to 6.6 RB receptions and at least 1 TD per game. With their defense playing better, he could land in a good spot.
ATL should be forced to pass, which gives Matt Ryan a chance. JAX is 5th in rush and 31st in pass DVOA which is the biggest gap this season. They did a good job against the SF rushing attack last week after shutting down Jonathan Taylor in the second half (5 carries for 3 yards in the 4th quarter). JAX will also be without their best CB, who had been playing very well as of late (Shaquille Griffin).
The key to Ryan has been Cordarrelle Patterson, with Ryan averaging 1.4 FPPG in the two games without Patterson being injured/out. He seems like a true game-time decision, so tune in for the Sunday update as I will be more interested in the ATL stack if he is in it.
I know regardless of his health I don’t want any part of the ATL RB committee against this JAX defense. Qadree Ollison was on the COVID-19 list but is clear to play, which means it will be a timeshare with him, Mike Davis, and possibly some Wayne Gallman. No thanks.
I also know we want to play Kyle Pitts in this spot. JAX allows 6.8 targets for 58.3 yards to TEs this season to go along with the 30th-ranked DVOA against the position. Pitts has been playing less in the slot with Russell Gage back. I also think they know he gets better matchups against LBs and safeties when they use him as a traditional or in-line TE. He is scary given Ryan’s struggles but without Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and Mark Andrews on the slate, he is my TE1.
Yes, David Jones, this is a narrative game for Pitts with the University of Florida just 73 miles east. Have to think he will have lots of people at the game.
GPP/MME
Dan Arnold is a classic buy-low after his disappearing act last week. This is just part of the game with a young (bad) QB, but I expect them to make a point to go back to him this week, especially with our guy Jamal Agnew on IR. Prior to the donut, Arnold saw 19%, 25% and 20% of team targets.
There is some chatter out of JAX that Laviska Shenault will get the Agnew role, which would make sense, but they also are playing Tavon Austin, John Brown and Laquon Treadwell so who the fuck knows with this team. Marvin Jones is not dead, leading the team with 6 targets last week, so again, the matchup is great. If ever there was a spot Trevor Lawrence does something this is it, so if you really want to play a JAX stack I would use Arnold and Shenault. That said, I will be avoiding it personally.
I feel the same way about the ATL WRs. JAX has been solid against slot WRs and Russell Gage is overpriced. Tajae Sharpe and Olamide Zaccheaus don’t move the needle either. I would play Zaccheaus, as he seems to have the most upside, but this is a situation to avoid.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos
LAC -2.5 @ DEN, O/U 47
Implied team totals: LAC 24.75, DEN 22.25
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
Per Derek Brown’s (incredible) write-up from his game-by-game article:
“The Chargers have continued to push the pace and passing rates in close games, ranking second and fifth (62.7%). We know who the Broncos are at this point too. Denver will throw a ton (seventh in neutral passing rate, 62.1%), but their sluggish pace (32nd) will hold their play volume down in neutral situations”.
DEN has sucked the life out of games this season, 2-8 to the UNDER. Their games have combined for the 2nd-fewest points per game (SEA).
LAC is 1-3 to the UNDER on the road, but their games have combined for the 2nd-most points per game with their last three averaging 58.6 PPG.
LAC will be without CB Asante Samuel.
DEN is missing Kareem Jackson in their secondary as well as tackle Bobby Massie.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Per Derek Brown, “Broncos are 32nd in adjusted completion rate and 20th in yards per attempt allowed overall. Since Week 5, this defense has hit a wall outside of playing up against the Dallas Cowboys…they are 30th in explosive pass rate allowed. Herbert is in a quiet smash spot.
I agree with DBro, this is another good spot for Justin Herbert against an overrated DEN defense. Herbert is not someone I would use in cash, as he seems to hit and miss big, but I do like him and this entire LAC stack as a late-game hammer on this slate in 3-Max.
That means Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will be big parts of my afternoon.
Again DBro comes with the goods, “The Broncos have struggled to defend outside and inside zone runs. Per FTN Data, Denver has seen these run types on 54.9% of their defensive snaps, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and 1.79 yards before contact per attempt. Ekeler has 68.3% of his rushing attempts deriving from these concepts, where he has chewed up 4.7 yards per carry. The Chargers have the sixth-highest projected line yards per our offensive efficiency tool.”
GPP/MME
The Broncos are a bit like the Patriots with a plethora of options at WR, TE and RB, they are also nearly identical in offensive DVOA ranks. That said, DVOA does not help you on the field, and while NE is 6th in points per game, DEN is just 23rd (17.4 PPG at home).
Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant seem like the guys to use as runbacks, Jeudy has led DEN with 32% and 26.5% of team targets in his last 2 games, going over 11 FP in each without a TD.
Fant has the best matchup with LAC tied with PHI for the most TDs allowed to TEs. He scares me with all these WRs healthy and Albert Okwuegbunam back, so I will be underweight.
DEN just handed a monster contract to Courtland Sutton, who has gone MIA since Jeudy came back. He has dropped to minimum price on Yahoo, so I will use him over there where I need a value (narrative street) WR at min-price. Tim Patrick trails only Jeudy in targets over their last 2 games with Jeudy back, which is why stacking this team is such a nightmare.
Javonte Williams is getting talked up after the bye, following a game he played more snaps than Melvin Gordon, It was still close to a 50/50 split and there is no indication Gordon is going away. I love Williams and have him in so many fantasy leagues, so I too want the breakout, but I would be cautious. MME only for them both. Since their bye, LAC has been much better against really good teams/RBs, allowing under 4 YPC per FTN Data.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers
LAR +1 @ GB, O/U 47.5
Implied team totals: GB 24.25, LAR 23.25
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
As we saw last week, slow pace doesn’t matter when you can connect for 75-yard TD passes. If these two QBs get into a shootout with each other they can overtake GBs pace and these defenses.
The Packers have only allowed 11 PPG at home (24.3 on the road). Of course, you need to look at the opponents when it’s only 4 games. GB faced DET, PIT, WFT and SEA at home, all teams in the bottom-12 in points.
LAR is 7th in points and 2nd in offensive DVOA, this will let us know if this GB defense (14th DVOA) is a fraud.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams are clearly the top two WRs on the slate. It is just roster construction that makes them so tough. Kupp is $9.6k, $1000 more than Adams on DK. If you pair them up with either Matthew Stafford or Aaron Rodgers, you are left with $4.5k per player (assuming you punt D). It can be done, but trying to fill out an entire roster of $4-$5k players is not easy. You also need to get 60+ points out of those two WRs which is a lot to ask, even for them (48 PPG combined average).
I would assume this predicament will make both value WRs, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Van Jefferson, fairly popular on these stacks. I prefer Van over MVS, though I will play them both in my game stacks.
Coming off a bye, Odell Beckham should see his playing time increase to a full-time WR. Ben Skowronek (76% last game) is OUT, leaving a very thin WR group. That puts him on my radar at his new value price on all sites.
GPP/MME
The big news we are waiting on here is Aaron Jones. Unlike last week, there are not a ton of value RBs, which would make AJ Dillon one of the better ones if Jones sits. AJD only got 11 rush attempts last week which broke my heart on PrizePicks. He made up for it by catching 6-of-6 targets for 44 yards, but it was a disappointment considering the opportunity and matchup.
Darrell Henderson has fallen back after back-to-back losses against tougher competition. GB is 29th in adjusted line yards allowed, they just allowed 20+ FP to Dalvin Cook putting Henderson in the high-end RB2 category.
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers
MIN +3 @ SF, O/U 48.5
Implied team totals: SF 25.75, MIN 22.75
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
MIN runs the 5th-most and allows the 8th-most plays per game which has them 4-1 to the OVER on the road.
MIN is also 4-1 ATS on the road, giving them a favorable trend against SF (1-4 ATS at home).
SF likes to drag games into the mud, running the 7th-fewest plays p/g and allowing the 8th fewest.
These teams are opposites, Minnesota is third in neutral pace, SF is 24th. MIN passes at the 12th-highest rate, SF 30th.
Feels like a good game (like GB/MIN last week) to game stack or fade, depending on whose scheme wins out, this game can go in very different directions.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
“Narrative take” alert. I think MIN wants to get as much out of Dalvin Cook to end the season with potential legal issues looming. He is averaging 27 touches/targets in his last two games since the news broke for 21 FPPG. It is not a great paper matchup, but as DBro points out, SF has not faced a tough RB schedule this season, and if Cook is going to get 25 touches at low ownership we want to buy.
I will be stacking this game a lot, with Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson as hot as any QB/WR combo this season. They combined for over 60 FP last week with JJ leading all WRs over his last two games (8.5 – 151.5 -1, 33 FPPG)
GPP/MME
I will be adding a SUN update for SF, with Elijah Mitchell being a huge factor in both Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson. You would assume if both backs are active Deebo no longer will serve as the RB2 which trickles down to Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, who both got a bump from Samuel only running 37 routes (7 targets) in his last two games (41 routes and 9 targets in week 9 with Mitchell active).
Jimmy Garoppolo is in a spot where SF could be forced to pass for four quarters which makes him a very viable GPP QB. I would prefer Mitchell be back so Deebo plays more WR, but I will stack SF and this game many ways in GPPs
Adam Thielen has scored in 7 of 10 games and remains the best TD-dependent WR for your Cousins stacks. In fairness, he has very good volume lately, seeing at least 7 targets in 5 straight, averaging 9.2 p/g over that stretch, so the TD-dependent label is a bit overblown. I wish his price was lower, which is why I just use him on game/MIN stacks.
Tyler Conklin is fine to use on Cousins stacks as well.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
PIT +4.5 @ CIN, O/U 45
Implied team totals: CIN 24.75, PIT 20.25
Pace, playcalling, stats & trends
Per Derek Brown, “Since Week 6, Pittsburgh is 12th in neutral pace, Cincinnati 22nd. The passing rate (seventh, 62.6%) is still stout for Joe Burrow and company, although the pace has slowed some over their last five games. The Steelers’ passing rate has rebounded some as they are 17th (57.3%) in close games.
Cash, single-entry, three-max plays, high-dollar GPP
(In order of personal exposure)
Joe Burrow only passed 18 times for 172 yards against PIT in Week 3, a 24-10 CIN win. He completed just 14 passes, but three of those were TD passes. PIT has allowed sneaky production to QBs, taking advantage of matchups with Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff. Once you pull those bums out, you see a very different defense. Justin Herbert got them for 382-3 last week, Justin Fields (291-1), Derek Carr (382-2) and both Aaron Rodgers and Teddy Bridgewater threw for 2 TD passes. After the LAC game, PIT plummeted to 25th in DVOA (26th against the pass), but their reputation plus Burrow’s struggles last week should have his ownership sub-5%. Stack him up with Ja’Marr Chase at sub-10% ownership and enjoy your money.
PIT has three players to use in your Burrow stacks, with low-owned Najee Harris as the Crown Jewel. I will be overweight Najee. CIN stinks defending the pass to the RB, with games of 9 and 14 receptions to backs this season (the 14-catch game was Harris). They have allowed the most targets and catches to RBs, and since we like CIN to score he should thrive again as a receiver.
Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth are the other Steelers I will be on in my stacks. Eric Ebron is out again and JuJu Smith-Schuster is on IR, which leaves a chunk of target share open for the young TE and WR1 (Diontae), and Najee. I will use all three of those players as one-offs, with a sprinkle of Chase Claypool in GPPs/MME.
Tee Higgins dropped a dud as the chalk WR last week, so I assume we can buy low here and get the inevitable bounceback. He was a classic case of why chalk WRs who aren’t elite WR1s are scary. With Higgins locked in as the alpha, Joe Mixon busting out for THIRTY carries against the Raiders, and the occasional appearance from CJ Uzomah & Tyler Boyd (who all play significant snaps) there are going to be at least 2 duds a week out of this group.
Mixon did not get a target last week and it didn’t matter, as he busted out for 30 carries & 124 rush yards (2 TDs). That is 2-of-4 games without registering a target while also scoring 27-28-25 FP. He is a GPP/MME play for me again with TJ Watt back and me on the passing attack.
Early Sunday Morning Update
I will still have the normal Sunday AM update in a bit. Just wanted to share things I came across last night and give updates after getting some news.
Dez Fitzpatrick 4th round selection, good size/route runner, average to below-average athleticism. Played 77%, ran 44 routes, 6 targets, 38 yards, and a score. Chester Rodgers 69%, 45 routes, 6 targets. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 67%, 35 routes, led the team with 7-107– on 8 targets.
It’s a tough matchup, but with so little value on the slate, Fitzpatrick is in play at $3.2k on DK, $5k on FD, and $10 on Yahoo (min. price). I also will use Westbrook-Ikhine when I have the extra cap space.
Corey Davis is likely OUT, so bump Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder. Ty Johnson also gets a lift with the team’s overall target leader OUT.
Mac Jones‘ home/road splits stand out. He’s got 4-straight games with 2+ TD passes at home, averaging 22.5 FP in his last two in Foxboro. TEN has allowed 18 passing TDs (T-6th) and the second-most FP to QBs. TEN has been solid against backs so I will get a few more Mac Stacks in than originally expected.
Elijah Mitchell will play, which has a significant trickle down to the passing offense. You have to assume Deebo Samuel is not the RB2 and thus will go back to his normal role as WR1. He is safe to roll out in all formats, I have him ranked 7th behind the TB WRs, Kupp, Adams, JJ, & Chase. We have seen his target share go down since George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk got back to the mix which I am not crazy about at his highest price point. I do like Garoppolo and this game stack as a whole.
Cash/SE Core
Core (FD)
Core (DK)
- Cam Newton
- Christian McCaffrey
- Miles Sanders
- Chris Godwin
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Dez Fitzpatrick
- Pat Freiermuth
Core (Yahoo)
*I am leaving Darrell Henderson in the flex a lot on yahoo to have the ability to swap to AJ Dillon if Aaron Jones is OUT.
*You can use James Robinson or Saquon as your DK flex. You can also go down to Hillard at $4.6k in the flex which gets you off of Dez as your cheap WR. That should give you room for Van Jefferson. I also have a lot of Diontae Johnson on DK, simply didn’t want to stack two PIT pass-catchers without a QB cash.
On FD, I realize that is more of a GPP LU than CASH. You can modify it by using Diontae and Tee Higgins (full game stack), or you can upgrade to Tom Brady (safer for cash), moving off Chase and to Michael Pittman, leaving Godwin or Mike Evans, if you don’t have the $100.
Stack ranks
- TB/IND
- PIT/CIN
- MIN/SF
- LAC/DEN
- LAR/GB
My player exposures (not in the core)
QB
RB
- Najee Harris
- Dalvin Cook
- Austin Ekeler
- Ty Johnson (FD)
- Leonard Fournette (Yahoo)
WR
- Davante Adams
- Justin Jefferson
- Deebo Samuel
- Jaylen Waddle (Yahoo + DK)
- Keenan Allen + Mike Williams stacks
- Jerry Jeudy
TE
- Kyle Pitts (Lots on Yahoo)
- Rob Gronkowski (With Brady)
- Evan Engram
- George Kittle
DST
- JAX is a good pivot from HOU chalk, especially if Patterson is OUT.
- NE is the top projected DST
- Eagles
- Atlanta
- CIN
- CAR
- MIA
Less owned
- Matthew Stafford
- Joe Mixon
- Rex Burkhead
- Mac Jones
- Elijah Moore
- DJ Moore
- Odell Beckham
- Dan Arnold
- Tyler Conklin
- PIT DST (hedge for all our CIN exposure)
