Week 12 Game-by-Game DFS Breakdown

Welcome to the game-by-game DFS breakdown for the Week 12 NFL main slate. In this writeup, I’ll walk you through the players, stacks, one-offs, etc., that I’ll be targeting weekly in DFS. My aim here is that you can apply this encyclopedia of stats and my word vomit to a variety of sites and contests with everything from cash to your GPP entries.

With plenty of words ahead to peruse, let’s dive into this week’s action. 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

CIN -4, O/U 45

Pace and playcalling

The pace in this will finish around the middle of the road, as since Week 6, Pittsburgh is 12th in neural pace, Cincinnati 22nd. The passing rate (seventh, 62.6%) is still stout for Joe Burrow and company, although the pace has slowed some over their last five games. The Steelers’ passing rate has rebounded some as they are 17th (57.3%) in close games. 

Injuries

Pittsburgh

• Joe Haden (CB) – (Foot – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• J.C. Hassenauer (OL) – (Pectoral – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Cincinnati 

• No notable injuries

Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger is coming off arguably his best game of the season with his first three-touchdown outing and a respectable 7.5 yards per attempt. He’s still not in play in DFS. That game makes only his third performance with multiple touchdowns and 270-plus passing yards. The Bengals have loosened up some in their pass defense and are now allowing the second-highest adjusted completion rate (78.9%). They are still 18th in yards per attempt (7.1) and have given up the third-fewest passing touchdowns (13), so this is no smash spot. 

Last week was Najee Harris’s first game since Week 2 without 20 touches (17). While his snaps dipped a tad to 75%, that is still a fantastic workload. Since Week 5, he’s averaging 26 touches and 109.7 total yards per game. He faces a Bengals’ run defense that is fifth in yards after contact per attempt (2.6) allowed and 13th in gash rate. In Week 3 against this defense, Harris racked up an ungodly 19 targets, and while I don’t project that many dumpoffs, he’ll still get plenty of passing-game work. The Bengals are 20th in DVOA against the position allowing 76 receptions (first) and 583 receiving yards (fifth most). The biggest obstacle for Harris to a back-breaking game is that the Bengals are third in red-zone rushing defense, so multi-touchdown upside is slim. When the Steelers get inside the 20, Harris will be involved as he ranks first in red-zone targets (12) and second in red-zone rushing share (72%). 

Diontae Johnson leads the team with a 27.8% target and 37.2% of the team’s air yards when he’s been on the field. Johnson leads the team also with a 30% first read share and 20% red zone target share. Johnson is averaging 10.6 targets, 6.6 receptions and 79.3 receiving yards per game. Johnson will run almost all of his routes on the outside against Chidobe Awuzie and Eli Apple. Awuzie has shadowed four times this season, so it’s possible, but it’s not likely. Awuzie is allowing a 54.8% catch rate and 79.6 passer rating. Apple is giving up a 66.7% catch rate and 96.7 passer rating. 

Chase Claypool has a 20% target share when active (33.3% air yard share) and leads the team with a 26% end zone target share. He gobbled up 15 targets in the first meeting with the Bengals because Johnson was out. He’ll run about 89% of his routes against Awuzie and Apple. Claypool is second on the team in deep targets (13) behind only Diontae Johnson (15). Claypool is a player I’ll only target in game stacks. Johnson has the volume edge on his side, but Claypool has disappeared at times with four games with six or fewer targets. James Washington has resumed his role as the full time slot receiver (89% slot). Since Week 8, he’s only seen an 8.2% target share with three red-zone targets, which all came in Week 10 with his preseason friend Mason Rudolph was under center. Washington is a large-field MME or showdown play only. 

With Eric Ebron out with an injury, Pat Freiermuth’s role is going to spike again. In Weeks 8-9 without Ebron, he saw a 21% target share, averaging 74% snaps played, and a route on 71% of Roethlisberger’s dropbacks. The Bengals rank 20th in DVOA against the tight end position. Freiermuth scored in their first meeting, and it wouldn’t shock me if he did again in Week 12. 

Bengals

Joe Burrow ripped this secondary apart during their first meeting on minimal volume (18 pass attempts). Burrow completed 77.7% of his passes for three scores and 9.5 yards per attempt. With the Bengals’ passing rate now inflated we could see a massive ceiling game from Burrow here. The Steel Curtain has rusted as they are 26th in pass defense allowing the 11th-highest yards per attempt (7.6). They have struggled all season to defense the deep ball bleeding out the eighth-highest deep completion rate (45.9%) and the highest deep passer rating (128.5) in the league. Burrow is 10th in deep passing yards (559) and second in deep passing touchdowns (six). Burrow bounceback happens in Week 12. Our offensive efficiency tool has Cincinnati with the highest projected yards per attempt (8.5) of the slate. 

Joe Mixon can be played as a one-off or in a stack with Burrow. Since Week 6, Mixon has played 63% or higher snaps in all but one game with 17.4 rushing attempts and 74.6 rushing yards per game. Over that five game stretch he has three weeks with five or more targets and 46 or more receiving yards, so while he doesn’t sound like he correlates well with Burrow the pass game usage has been there for it work out. The Steelers are 31st in explosive run rate, third in yards after contact per attempt, and eighth in rushing yards allowed. Our offensive efficiency tool has the Bengals with the fourth-highest projected open field yards on this slate. 

Since Week 5

Ja’Marr Chase is the primary stacking option with Burrow. Since Week 5, he has led the team with 15 deep targets (Tee Higgins, eight) and a 25.8% target share. Chase roasted this secondary in Week 3 with 65 receiving yards and two scores with only five targets. Since Week 4, he’s averaging nine targets per game with three weeks of 10 plus targets. Chase is second to only Stefon Diggs in end zone targets (10). Chase will run about 87% of his routes on the outside against Joe Haden (if active, missed Week 11 with injury) and Cameron Sutton. Haden has a 64.5% catch rate allowed and a 102.9 passer rating. Sutton has given up a 69.0% catch rate and 94.6 passer rating. If Haden can’t go, then James Pierre will take his place, conceding a 64.9% catch rate and 110.3 passer rating. 

Higgins has seen a 21.8% target share since his return. He is second behind only Chase with a 22% red-zone target share. He’ll run about 76% of his routes on the perimeter against Haden and Sutton. Higgins has been extremely disappointing this season with only one game over 80 receiving yards. He hasn’t gotten into the end zone since Week 2, so you can say he’s due. He will likely be popular again this week as his price ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,200) begs you to play him on both sites. I’ll have exposure to Burrow single stacked with Chase and a double with Chase and Higgins. Call me a sucker for punishment, but he has to hit eventually (right?). If only running one lineup, I prefer to single stack Burrow with Chase or double stack him with Mixon and Chase. 

Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah didn’t make the GPP cut this week. Boyd has seen a 16.8% target share with Higgins on the field and only four red-zone targets since Week 5. Uzomah has a 9.6% target share and will face a pass defense that’s allowed only two receiving touchdowns to his position (28th). 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, Najee Harris
GPP only: Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Tee Higgins

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts

TB -3, O/U 53

Pace and playcalling

Tampa Bay is still sprinting and throwing a ton, ranking ninth and second (67.1%) in neutral-script pace and passing rate. Indianapolis will bog things down, ranking 28th and 18th in neutral pace and passing rate (56.4%). Since Week 7, the Colts have had the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate (47.9%). It’ll be curious if they alter that approach this week. 

Injuries

Tampa Bay

• Antonio Brown (WR) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Ali Marpet (OL) – (Abdomen – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful
• Vita Vea (DT) – (Knee – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Devin White (LB) – (Quad – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Indianapolis

• Quenton Nelson (OL) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / FP) – Status: Questionable
• Darius Leonard (LB) – (Ankle – LP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable

Buccaneers

Tom Brady should shred this secondary. The Colts have allowed 7.4 yards per attempt (13th), the most passing touchdowns (25) in the NFL. They are also struggling to defend deep, with the fifth-highest deep completion rate (48.7%) and the 10th-highest deep passing yards (581) allowed. This season, Brady has 43 deep attempts and 573 deep passing yards, which are both seventh among quarterbacks with 100 or more attempts. 

Since Week 4, Leonard Fournette has averaged 63% of the snaps with 19.7 touches and 96.4 total yards per game. Fournette has yet to cross the 100-yard rushing mark, and it’s doubtful this is the week that happens. The Colts have allowed 874 rushing yards (18th) and hold the ninth-highest stuff rate (48.8%). Indianapolis is also 29th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs, so that can help pad his floor and ceiling. Over his last seven games, Fournette has a 14.2% target share (5.7 targets per game). The biggest obstacle for Uncle Len this week besides those already mentioned is his touchdown upside. Tampa Bay will be looking to throw in close against a defense ranked 32nd against the pass (ninth against the run) inside the 20. 

Since Week 7 with no Antonio Brown

With Antonio Brown still not practicing, this will be another week of the Chris Godwin and Mike Evans show. Since Week 7, Evans has seen a 17% target share and 29.2% of the team’s air yards. He’s run about 63% of his routes on the perimeter leading the team over this stretch in deep targets (five) and red-zone targets (seven). Last week the Colts split up the boundary corner work between Xavier Rhodes, Isaiah Rodgers and Rock Ya-Sin. Since Week 5, Rhodes has been allowing a 67.6% catch rate and 103.5 passer rating. Rodgers has been a bit tougher, giving up a 64.0% catch rate and 74.1 passer rating. As always, you can perform when Ya-Sin is the corner covering you as he’s permitted (over his last five games) a 57.7% catch rate and 97.1 passer rating. Evans is the primary stack piece with Brady. 

Over his last four games, Godwin has led the team with a 23.5% target share. He has six red-zone targets but only two deep targets over this span. Godwin will run about 68% of his routes from the slot against Kenny Moore. Moore is a corner that we have targeted all season, but his play has improved in recent weeks. Since Week 5, he has conceded a 70% catch rate, 78.8 passer rating, and only one receiving touchdown despite seeing 60 targets in coverage. Godwin is in play if you’re double stacking Brady. Tyler Johnson, however, is not, as he’s only seen a 10.2% target share without Brown and only one red-zone look. 

Last week, Rob Gronkowski returned to the lineup, playing 59% of the snaps with a 17% target share and a red-zone target. He ran a route on 59.5% of Brady’s dropbacks. While that’s a low rate, we can still use Gronkowski this week. The Colts have been especially giving to opposing tight ends. They rank 29th in DVOA, allowing 691 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns, third highest in the league. 

Colts

The Tampa Bay defense is no pushover in the pass defense department now after a slow start. They have climbed to seventh in DVOA, allowing the fourth-lowest yards per attempt (6.5). No quarterback has surpassed 260 yards passing or thrown for multiple touchdowns since Week 5 (Jacoby Brissett 275 with two scores) against this defense. Carson Wentz ranks 21st in pressured completion rate and now faces a defense that is first in blitz rate (37.2%) and fifth in pressure rate (27.4%). 

**Update: Quenton Nelson is banged up, but he looks like he’ll play. If he were to miss this game it would put a dent into Taylor’s outlook.**

After Jonathan Taylor broke the slate in Week 11, it’s time to go right back to him in this matchup. Since Week 6, the Colts have been feeding Taylor, with 23 touches and 153.3 total yards per game. He has been their bell cow, playing at least 83% of the snaps in his last two games. He is first in breakaway runs, evaded tackles, juke rate and yards created. He is operating on another level currently. The Colts offensive line is an imposing force, ranking fifth, second and first in adjusted line yards, second-level yards and open-field yards. Since Week 6, they are second in yards before contact (2.3). Much like Buffalo, Tampa Bay is a tough matchup on paper at first glance, but there are issues that Indy can look to exploit. The Buccaneers have allowed the fewest rushing yards in the NFL (784) and rank fifth in stuff rate per FTN Data. However, they are also 10th in gash rate, and since Week 5, they are 29th in explosive run rate allowed. Per FTN Data, the Tampa Bay defense has faced outside zone runs on 31.3% of their defensive snaps, allowing 4.9 yards per carry and 2.5 yards before contact per attempt. Taylor has utilized outside zone concepts on 34.7% of his runs, ripping off 6.1 yards per carry. Not only can Taylor do damage on the ground, but in the passing game. Since Week 10, he’s run a route on 57.8% of dropbacks with an 18.5% target share. Tampa Bay is 27th in DVOA against receiving backs giving up 71 receptions (sixth most) and four receiving touchdowns (third most). I’m not fading Taylor against this defense. Not at all. 

Against this pass defense, I’m not getting cute and spinning the Colts tight end roulette wheel or going down the T.Y. Hilton barrel or Zach Pascal side street. Hilton will run a little over half of his routes against Jamel Dean this week, and that’s been a no-fly zone. Dean is allowing a 51.2% catch rate and 57.2 passer rating. Michael Pittman is the only receiver I’ll consider from this passing attack in a game stack. Pittman has a 23% target share (31% of the team’s air yards) and a 26% red zone target share. Since Week 8 with Hilton in the lineup, he’s running about half of his routes as the RWR, which will line him up against Sean Murphy-Bunting. Murphy-Bunting played one side of the field last week in his return as an outside corner. In limited action, he’s given up a 68.8% catch rate and 111.5 passer rating. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Jonathan Taylor
GPP only: Rob Gronkowski, Michael Pittman

Carolina Panthers vs. Miami Dolphins

CAR -2, O/U 42

Pace and playcalling

In Cam Newton’s first start, the Panthers were at 27.6 seconds per snap, throwing the ball on 57.1% of their plays when the game was close. Those marks would have them at 17th in neutral pace and passing rate. Those are massive improvements out the gate for Newton, as the Panthers are 25th and 26th in neutral pace and passing rate overall this season. 

The Dolphins continue to fly and pass with reckless abandon, ranking first and fourth (63.3%) in neutral environment pace and passing rate. This game has the hope of exceeding expectations on both fronts this week. 

Injuries

Carolina

• No notable injuries

Miami 

• Adam Shaheen (TE) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Panthers

Well, so much for Phillip Walker seeing some snaps last week. Cam Newton played 100% of the snaps, rushing 10 times for 46 yards with three total touchdowns (two passing). Newton finished the week as the QB5 (26.2 fantasy points). Now he tackles a pass defense that has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL (3,199) and fourth-most passing touchdowns (20). The Dolphins are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game (19.3) to quarterbacks. The biggest area of concern for Newton is Miami’s league-leading blitz rate (39.7%). The early returns on Newton versus the blitz back in Carolina are solid as he completed 70% of his passes against his last week, which is 12th-highest among quarterbacks with 20 or more dropbacks. Last season he was fifth in yards per attempt (8.2) against the blitz (among quarterbacks with 20 or more dropbacks). Newton got a price hike (QB12 $5,500 DraftKings, QB3 $8,000 FanDuel, 1.3x SuperDraft), but it wasn’t nearly high enough on DraftKings or SuperDraft. As the QB3 on FanDuel, I’ll pass and get exposure on the other sites. 

At this point, what do you want me to tell you about Christian McCaffrey? He’s a matchup-proof DFS superstar. Since his return, he’s seen 19.3 touches and 128.7 total yards per game. In his first game with Newton, he saw a 30% target share (26% since Week 9). He faces a Miami Dolphins run defense that allows the eighth highest yards after contact per attempt (2.59). They have been stingy in the red zone, ranking second against the run (38% success rate allowed). They are not impervious, though, as they are 21st in explosive run rate allowed since Week 4. McCaffrey is stackable with Newton or playable as a one-off. 

The only receiver I will consider playing from Carolina outside of McCaffrey is DJ Moore. Moore saw a 26% target share (seven targets) in Newton’s first start. This season he leads the team with a 47% end zone target share and 27% red zone target share. The concern for Moore is Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are first and second among all corners in man coverage snaps (48-50% of their snaps). Moore’s splits against man (1.57 yards per route run) and zone (1.94 yards per route run) are fairly pronounced. Among 52 wideouts with 15 or more man-coverage targets, Moore is 36th in yards per route run. This makes Moore a large field play only. For the sake of conversation, Robby Anderson is WR52 in this sample. 

Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas are still splitting routes and only minuscule parts of this offense, so they aren’t in play despite the Dolphins’ 29th ranking in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). 

Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa has been fantastic when healthy in multiple weeks for DFS, but this isn’t a week to go to him. The Panthers are fifth in pass defense DVOA, ranking 20th in adjusted completion rate (74.3%) allowed. Carolina has given up the fifth-lowest yards per attempt (6.6). Tagovailoa will be under duress all day against this blitz-heavy scheme. Carolina ranks sixth in blitz rate (32.1%) and second in pressure rate (28.8%). Among quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks, Tagovailoa has the seventh-lowest blitz yards per attempt (6.3) and seventh-largest passer rating difference when blitzed (-16.3, 79.6). 

Myles Gaskin isn’t in consideration for me this week against Carolina. The Panthers might be 28th in explosive run rate allowed, but there is a major concern if the Dolphins offensive line can spring him. Miami’s front five is ranked 31st in adjusted line yards and second-level yards. They are ranked 25th in yards before contact per attempt (1.24). Since Week 7, he’s been extremely inefficient, with his volume turning 20.2 touches into 66 total yards per game. Gaskin is 53rd in yards created per touch. The Panthers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (15.1) to running backs. If Miami moves the ball this week, it’s most likely going to be through the air. 

Since Week 7 in Tagovailoa’s three games started, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki have been leading the way for the passing game. Waddle has led the way with a 26% target share running about half of his routes from the slot. Gesicki has seen a 16.3% target share playing 94.2% of his snaps from the slot or as an outside receiver. Waddle leads the team with an 18% red zone target share, while Gesicki is second (13%). Both players are viable runbacks to a Newton stack or mini correlation with McCaffrey. They will see A.J. Bouye inside, who has allowed an 89.2% catch rate and 100.6 passer rating in slot coverage. If picking one player, my lean is Gesicki, who could see most of the slot work. In Week 11, Waddle played about 62% of his snaps outside, so if that continues, he could have a long day against Donte Jackson and Stephon Gilmore on the perimeter. Jackson has allowed a 63.6% catch rate and 83.1 passer rating. Gilmore has been stellar since arriving in Carolina with a 50% catch rate allowed and a 20.8 passer rating in coverage. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Cam Newton (DK, SuperDraft), Christian McCaffrey
GPP only: DJ Moore, Mike Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle

Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots

NE -6.5, O/U 43.5

Pace and playcalling

This game will be disgustingly slow as Tennessee ranks 22nd in neutral pace, followed by New England at 26th. Both of these teams are enamored with running the ball. Since Week 8, the Patriots are third in neutral rushing rate (56.3%), followed by the Titans at the ninth-highest clip (46.2%). 

Injuries

Tennessee 

• A.J. Brown (WR) – (Chest – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Ola Adeniyi (LB) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Nate Davis (OL) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Rashaan Evans (LB) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Jeremy McNichols (RB) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: 

New England

• Christian Barmore (DT) – (Knee – LP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Trenton Brown (OL) – (Knee – LP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Damien Harris (RB) – (Knee – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Hunter Henry (TE) – (Neck – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Dont’a Hightower (LB) – (Ankle – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Jonnu Smith (TE) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) – (Knee – / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Titans

With A.J. Brown missing this game, the Tennessee offense reaches critical mass, and this becomes a team to full fade outside of some MME sprinkles. Over their last three games the Titans are 20th in offensive touchdowns per game (2.0) and 30th in yards per play (4.5). Ryan Tannehill threw for 323 yards last week, but against the lowly Texans he could only muster that on 52 pass attempts (6.2 yards per attempt). Tannehill hasn’t thrown for multiple touchdowns since Week 8, and he’s only managed to do so twice this season. The Titans could roll out a starting trio of Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Dez Fitzpatrick and Chester Rogers against a pass defense ranked second in DVOA allowing the seventh-lowest yards per attempt (6.6) and third-fewest passing touchdowns (13). Thanks, but I’ll pass. 

The only situation worth taking a look at is the backfield. D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard split the backfield work with Adrian Peterson in Week 11. With Peterson waived and Jeremy McNichols still dealing with a concussion, this will be a two-way committee in Week 12. Hilliard is the back we should have interest in. He saw a 19.2% target share with 15 total touches and 82 total yards. The receiving back role is the one to target against the Patriots who are 26th in DVOA against this specialty allowing 74 receptions (third most) and 682 receiving yards (second highest). 

Week 11

Patriots

The Patriots enter this game with a banged-up backfield and a run-heavy offense. We need injury clarity on these backs before diving into who to target in this matchup. I’ll update the Patriots rushing attack when we have more news with injury designations. 

Update:

Week 11

This is a below average matchup and looks to be a three-way split if all of these backs are active. The Titans have allowed 804 rushing yards (24th), 15.4 fantasy points per game (28th), and 2.41 yards after contact per attempt to opposing running backs. Unless Harris or Stevenson is ruled out, this situation is a full avoid.

As for the passing game it’s difficult to get excited about these pass catching options. Over the last three games, Mac Jones is averaging only 22.3 pass attempts and 181 passing yards per game, but in large-field settings we can look to this passing game for a mini correlation with Hilliard. 

The obvious option is Jakobi Meyers, who has a 23% target share and leads the team with a 25% first read share. Meyers will run about 66% of his routes from the slot against Elijah Molden. Molden has allowed a 75% catch rate and 138.8 passer rating in slot coverage. Meyers has only two weeks all season in which he’s seen less than a 21% target share. Despite that volume, he has only crossed the 60-yard receiving threshold only twice and scored once this year. The ceiling is hard to see with Meyers, but this juicy cornerback matchup could allow some big plays. Meyers is second on the team in deep targets (10) and now faces a secondary, allowing the third-most deep passing yards (720). 

Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are not in play this week against a pass defense ranking sixth in DVOA against the position allowing only 356 receiving yards (30th) and three receiving touchdowns (23rd). 

DFS Plays

Core plays: N/A
GPP only: Dontrell Hilliard, Jakobi Meyers

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

PHI -3.5, O/U 45.5

Pace and playcalling

Since flipping to a run-heavy approach in Week 8, Philadelphia is first in neutral-script rushing rate (62.0%) while ranking 22nd in pace. Despite the clapper being axed for Freddie Kitchens, the Giants will likely remain a vanilla offense. They are 17th and 14th (58.5%) in neutral pace and passing rates. 

Injuries

Philadelphia

• Jordan Howard (RB) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

New York

• Kyle Rudolph (TE) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful
• Sterling Shepard (WR) – (Quad – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Kadarius Toney (WR) – (Quad – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful
• Saquon Barkley (RB) – (Ankle – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• John Ross (WR)  – (Quad- LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Eagles

Jalen Hurts has been a top-12 (QB12, QB6, QB3) fantasy quarterback since the Eagles flipped to their run-heavy approach. Hurts’ passing volume (19.5 attempts per game) has suffered, but his rushing equity has increased. He’s coming off a season-high in carries with 18. Over his last four games, he’s averaging 12 carries and 64.3 rushing yards per game. The Giants are 11th in pass defense DVOA, but there’s still a path for him to finish with an efficient day through the air. New York also allows the eighth-highest adjusted completion rate (77.8%) and the seventh-most passing touchdowns (18). Hurts probably doesn’t make my three-max builds, but I would get exposure to him if you’re running 10 or more lineups. 

Miles Sanders will lead the way this week in a plus matchup. Sanders returned to the lineup with 16 rushing attempts (one target) and 94 rushing yards while playing 46% of the snaps. With Jordan Howard missing this game, Sanders should tote the rock as the early-down hammer. Boston Scott will also be involved, especially in the passing game where he ran more routes than Sanders last week, but Sanders should compete with Hurts for the team lead in carries. The Giants are a good spot for Sanders to explode, ranking 31st in adjusted line yards and 24th in second-level yards allowed. New York has also surrendered the seventh-most rushing yards to running backs (1,056) and the eighth-most fantasy points per game (20.7). The Eagles line has been bullying the opposition ranking second in non-quarterback yards before contact per attempt. Sanders is in play for GPPs, but Scott is a player I likely won’t roster outside of showdown. 

Week 11

Since Week 8 in Dallas Goedert’s three full games

Since the Eagles have morphed into a run-first, run-always squad, the only rosterable options in DFS with palpable target volume are DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Smith has seen a 27.6% target share with 44% of the team’s air yards in that span. Smith will run about 79% of his routes on the outside against Adoree’ Jackson and James Bradberry. Over their last five games, Jackson and Bradberry have toughened up. Jackson is only allowing a 48% catch rate and 51.3 passer rating. Bradberry is giving up a 51.7% catch rate and 74.1 passer rating. This is why I lean to Goedert if you’re looking for a stacking partner with Hurts. 

Goedert has a 39% target share in his last three full games, running a route on 88.7% of Hurts’ dropbacks. He is tied for the team lead with a 15% red zone target share. Goedert has not made it into the end zone since Week 4, so touchdown regression is due. New York has allowed the 10th-most receptions (57) to the tight end position. 

Giants

The Giants have been a walking disaster on offense, and it starts with Daniel Jones. He’s thrown for over 270 passing yards only once this season and multiple touchdowns only twice. I doubt moving from the clapper to Freddie Kitchens is going to make a monumental difference. I’ll look to this team for runbacks and mini correlations only. The three players that stand out are Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and Evan Engram. 

Barkley made his return last week, playing 62% of snaps with 12 touches and 56 total yards. Barkley drew a 16% target share while running routes on 47.5% of Jones’ dropbacks. The Buccaneers railed the Giants, which could explain his split with Booker and him not seeing his customary 80% plus snap share. The Eagles have given up the fifth-most rushing yards (1,123) and fourth-most rushing touchdowns (9) to opposing running backs. While that looks amazing for Barkley at first glance, there are worries. Since Week 5, the Eagles have the fifth-lowest explosive run rate allowed. They are sixth in DVOA against pass-catching backs, but they have allowed checkdowns aplenty because of their zone-heavy defensive approach. Philadelphia has surrendered 75 receptions (second-most) and 497 receiving yards (10th most) to backs. Barkley is a standout value on DraftKings and will likely be popular (RB10, $6,300) because of his price. Barkley is a volume play behind an abysmal offensive line (30th adjusted line yards, 29th second-level yards), and his snaps must return to the 80-85% range for him to pay off this week. 

Kenny Golladay is coming off a quiet game with only two targets, but he played his highest snap share (76%) since Week 4. When he was healthy in Weeks 1, 2 and 4, he played at least 84% of snaps, seeing a 20.3% target share. He ran about 81% of his routes on the perimeter and was effective with 1.93 yards per route run. The Eagles have had improved pass defense play stretches, but they are 30th in DVOA against deep passing (per Football Outsiders). Per FTN Data, they have the seventh-highest deep completion rate (46.2%) and deep passer rating (100.2) allowed. Despite the missed time, Golladay still leads the team in deep targets (six). Golladay will see Steven Nelson and Darius Slay in coverage this week. Since Week 6, Nelson has allowed a 72% catch rate and 128.4 passer rating. Slay has also been mortal, giving up a 66.7% catch rate and 82.1 passer rating. 

Evan Engram has been one of the most disappointing fantasy plays for quite some time. Despite a 15.3% target share and ranking 14th in routes run at the position, he’s turned in only three top 12 fantasy performances all season, only surpassing 11 fantasy points once. Engram will get a bump if Rudolph misses this week as he’s been the Giants primary red zone tight end (20% vs. Engram’s 10%). The reason Engram makes this list is that the Eagles have been the tight end flowsheet this season. They are 31st in DVOA against the position allowing 81 receptions, 811 receiving yards, and nine receiving touchdowns, which are all tops in the NFL. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: N/A
GPP only: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Evan Engram

Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

ATL -1.5, O/U 45.5

Pace and playcalling

Our offensive efficiency tool has this game with the fastest projected pace on the slate (26.7). Atlanta is seventh in neutral pace, with Jacksonville right one their heels at eighth. The big difference is what these two teams are doing with the enhanced play volume. The Falcons have the 11th-highest neutral passing rate (59.3%), while Jacksonville has been more run-heavy (21st in passing rate, 55.4%). 

Injuries

Atlanta

• Cordarrelle Patterson (RB) – (Ankle – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Jacksonville

• Shaquill Griffin (CB) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Falcons

Matt Ryan squares off against a pass funnel Jaguars team in Week 12. Jacksonville’s pass defense is ranked 31st, allowing the fourth-highest adjusted completion rate (78.7%) and yards per attempt (8.0). Bear with me when I say that Ryan is a core play this week. His performance against pressure has been a concern in the past, but his numbers, when under duress, have steadily improved this season. Jacksonville will test him as they are ninth in blitz rate and eighth in pressure rate. Per FTN Data, among quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks, Ryan is fourth in pressured completion rate, sixth in pressured passer rating, and 12th in pressured yards per attempt. Before face planting in his last two games, Ryan had thrown for 300 or more passing yards with multiple scores in three of his last four games.

If Cordarrelle Patterson makes his return this week, he’s in play with Ryan because of his versatile role. In Weeks 5-9 before the injury issues, he saw 16.5 touches with 95.8 total yards per game playing his usual hybrid role. Over that span Patterson had an 18% target share (6.3 targets per game). The Jaguars are tough on the ground. Since Week 5, they are allowing the 12th-lowest explosive run rate. Overall, this season they are surrendering the second-lowest second-level and open-field yards with the fourth-lowest gash rate. With Patterson, he’s equal parts rusher and wide receiver, so the running back numbers given up can be taken with a grain of salt. If Patterson is out, I’ll have nothing to do with a possible three-way committee of Qadre Ollison, Mike Davis and even possibly Wayne Gallman mixing in for some snaps. 

Since Calvin Ridley’s departure

Since Week 8, Kyle Pitts leads the team with a 21.7% target share playing 82.1% of his snaps in the slot or outside. Pitts is tied for the team lead with a 26% end zone target share, but he has seen his red zone role dry up with only one look inside the 20 over his last four games. Shaquill Griffin missing this game helps Pitts and Russell Gage out immensely when they are on the perimeter.

When Pitts is outside, he’ll see Nevin Lawson and Tyson Campbell in coverage. Campbell has given up a 71.1% catch rate and 115.0 passer rating. Lawson is permitting a 72.7% catch rate and 99.1 passer rating. When Pitts moves into the slot, he’ll match up with safety Rudy Ford who has taken over nickel duties. Ford is conceding a 73.3% catch rate and 52.9 passer rating.

Gage has seen a 21.3% target share since Week 8 with the same red-zone woes as Pitts (one target). Single stacking Ryan with Pitts or adding in Patterson is my preferred approach, but in large field settings, Gage is in play. Outside of the red zone issues for Gage, the other concern is his ceiling. He has yet to top 67 receiving yards this year, and he only crested that four times last season. Gage will see the same battery of corners splitting half his routes between the outside and slot. 

Jaguars

The mind says to consider Trevor Lawrence in MME this week, but the heart says, “What in the hell are you doing?” The Falcons are 29th in DVOA against the pass allowing the fifth-highest adjusted completion rate and passing touchdowns (20). Atlanta is giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (20.4). There’s the bull case for Lawrence. Now for a dose of reality. Lawrence has not thrown for a touchdown since Week 8 and has not eclipsed 240 passing yards or seven yards per attempt since Week 6. This is likely just a scenario where we look to this offense for runbacks, but Lawrence is an interesting option because of the matchup, even if you toss him in the Milly Maker. 

James Robinson isn’t making my GPP exposures this week. He has averaged 61% of snaps with 15 touches and 61 total yards per game over the last two weeks at less than full health. He’s been a shell of himself with 3.5 yards per carry and 6.0 yards per reception. The Falcons are not a team to test on the ground ranking third in open field yards allowed. Since Week 5, they have the fourth-lowest explosive run rate allowed and are ranked eighth in red zone rushing defense. They are 21st in DVOA against receiving backs with 66 receptions (ninth) and 506 receiving yards (seventh) allowed, but even if we look at this as a pathway to ceiling, Robinson hasn’t drawn more than five targets since Week 3. 

Since Week 8

The only two options to consider in a game stack are Marvin Jones and Dan Arnold. Since Week 8, Jones has an 18.7% target share while running about 68% of his routes on the perimeter. Over his last four games, he leads the team in deep targets (five). He’ll see A.J. Terrell and Fabian Moreau in coverage. Since Week 6, Terrell has loosened his coverage grip allowing a 65% catch rate and 86.0 passer rating. Over that same span, Fabian Moreau has remained terrible with a 61.5% catch rate and 117.9 passer rating. 

Over that same stretch Arnold has a 16.5% target share while running about 78% of his routes (65% slot) in the slot or outside. When in the slot Arnold will see Darren Hall or Richie Grant. Since Week 6 this dubious duo has combined for a 90.9% catch rate with passer ratings of 137.5 and 118.1 allowed in coverage. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts
GPP only: Cordarrelle Patterson, Russell Gage, Marvin Jones, Dan Arnold 

New York Jets vs. Houston Texans

HOU -2.5, O/U 44.5

Pace and playcalling

This game looks like a dumpster fire at first glance, but it offers sneaky upside from a pace and passing rate standpoint. The Jets are only 15th in neutral pace, but they have climbed to eighth in neutral passing rate (60.9%). With Zach Wilson back under center it’s a fair question if that holds though. In Weeks 1-5 the Jets were 18th in passing rate (55.5%) in close games. 

The Texans present the quiet ceiling here. Since Tyrod Taylor returned, this team is fifth and eighth (61.3%) in neutral pace and passing rates. This type of play volume is mouthwatering even if it is Houston. 

Injuries

New York

• Corey Davis (WR) – (Groin – LP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Shaq Lawson (DL) – (Wrist – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• C.J. Mosley (LB) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Houston

• No notable injuries

Jets

I don’t have it in me to roster Zach Wilson despite a plus matchup for the Jets passing attack. Before missing time, he only has two games with 250 or more passing yards and multiple scores on his resume, and he’s still yet to log a 20-point fantasy outing. The Texans make it enticing, though, allowing the fifth-highest yards per attempt and the 11th-most passing yards (2,697). 

The two options for New York that do draw some interest are Ty Johnson and Elijah Moore. Since Tevin Coleman’s return in Week 10, he has garnered more early-down work than Johnson, but Johnson has held the upper hand in the passing game. The rushing attempts are also a false signal for Coleman because Michael Carter was the primary early-down and goal-line back, with Coleman only filling in as a breather back. Johnson will garner the passing down snaps and could also own the red zone role. In Weeks 1-5, with Coleman and Johnson both working in, Johnson saw six red-zone opportunities compared to only three for Coleman. Houston is a beautiful matchup for running backs allowing 21.0 fantasy points per game (seventh highest) and the second-most rushing yards (1,174). The Texans are sixth in yards after contact per attempt (2.69) and fourth in gash rate (13.6%) allowed. 

Week 10-11

Finally, it happened. Elijah Moore was a full-time player for the Jets. In Week 11, he was second among the wideouts in routes run (35) while running a pass route on 81.3% of Joe Flacco’s dropbacks. Moore drew a 23% target share while playing outside on about 71% of his snaps. Before you bring up “well, what about his splits with Wilson under center,” we need to understand context here. In Weeks 1-5, Moore was an ineffective part-time player running routes on only 52.5% of dropbacks with a 0.65 yards per route run. Moore’s playing time is different now, and so is his effectiveness. Since Week 7, he has led the wide receiver room with 2.42 yards per route run. Over that same stretch among 54 wide receivers with 20 or more targets, he is ninth in yards per route run immediately behind Keenan Allen. Moore can crush Desmond King and Terrance Mitchell in coverage. King is giving up a 75% catch rate and 87.9 passer rating, while Mitchell allows a 62.3% catch rate and 99.6 passer rating. 

Update: Corey Davis also enters the large field conversation with Wilson under center. In Weeks 1-5 Davis saw a 20.4% target share (7.2 targets per game) and 33% of the team’s air yards. Moore wasn’t a full time player at this point. Davis becomes more interesting if Moore gets chalkier throughout the weekend.

Texans

Tyrod Taylor is a viable GPP target this week. Taylor hasn’t looked like the same player since his return that we saw early in the season. Over the last two weeks, he has completed only 56.7% of his passes with 5.1 yards per attempt, but the rushing floor has been raised with 4.5 attempts and 25.5 yards per game. The Jets are a good get right spot though. Flipping through the pages of FTN Data stats, I can’t help but find New York inside the top 10 in multiple categories. The Jets are sixth in adjusted completion rate and first in yards per attempt allowed. They have also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game (18.7) to quarterbacks. With Taylor’s rushing starting to sneak into the equation he could find success on both the ground and the air. New York is 29th in explosive run rate allowed. 

I have been suckered into playing a Texans’ running back this season already. This week I put my foot down and say no. Enough is enough. With Phillip Lindsay off to South Beach, the knee-jerk response is “this could be a two-way committee with David Johnson and Rex Burkhead leading it.” That could be true, but would it surprise you if this situation remained a three-way split with Royce Freeman now getting involved? I wouldn’t be shocked. Not at all. The reasons to look to this backfield for DFS purposes are obvious. The Jets are first in fantasy points allowed per game (30.3) to running backs and third in rushing yards (1,171) allowed. They have given up an astounding 17 rushing scores (first) and rank fifth in gash rate. This feels like a trap situation I will happily avoid. 

Week 11

Brandin Cooks is the single-stack target with Taylor. Cooks is fourth in target share (28%) and weighted opportunity among wide receivers. Cooks is 11th in the NFL in deep targets (16), facing a secondary with a 44.2% deep completion rate (ninth highest) and 104.6 deep passer rating (sixth highest) allowed. Cooks will face Bryce Hall and Isaiah Dunn on about 69% (nice) of his routes. Hall is conceding a 65.2% catch rate and 110.6 passer rating. Dunn has given up a 141.4 passer rating in limited action (seven targets). Cooks is one-off viable this week. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Tyrod Taylor, Brandin Cooks
GPP only: Elijah Moore, Ty Johnson, Corey Davis

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

LAC -2.5, O/U 48

Pace and playcalling

The Chargers have continued to push the pace and passing rates in close games, ranking second and fifth (62.7%). We know who the Broncos are at this point too. Denver will throw a ton (seventh in neutral passing rate, 62.1%), but their sluggish pace (32nd) will hold their play volume down in neutral situations. 

Injuries

Los Angeles

• Asante Samuel Jr. (CB) – (Concussion – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Denver

• Kareem Jackson (S) – (Neck – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful
• Bobby Massie (T)  – (Ankle – LP / LP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful

Chargers

Justin Herbert faces a Denver defense that has not lived up to their full-season billing on paper. The Broncos are 32nd in adjusted completion rate and 20th in yards per attempt allowed overall. Since Week 5, this defense has hit a wall outside of playing up against the Dallas Cowboys. They limited Dak Prescott to a 48.7% completion rate and 5.9 yards per attempt, but this defense has withered against lesser quarterbacks in the other five games. Denver has allowed Ben Roethlisberger, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, Taylor Heinicke and Jalen Hurts to complete 63.9% of their passes with 8.4 yards per attempt and an 8:3 touchdown to interception ratio. Since Week 5, they are 30th in explosive pass rate allowed. Herbert is in a quiet smash spot. 

Austin Ekeler is viable in a Herbert stack or as a one-off. Over his last four games, Ekeler has 19 touches and 95.1 total yards per game with an 18% target share. Ekeler can shred a run defense that, since Week 6 is 28th in explosive run rate allowed. Denver is 30th in stuff rate this season. The Broncos have struggled to defense outside and inside zone runs. Per FTN Data, Denver has seen these run types on 54.9% of their defensive snaps, allowing 4.4 yards per carry and 1.79 yards before contact per attempt. Ekeler has 68.3% of his rushing attempts deriving from these concepts, where he has chewed up 4.7 yards per carry. The Chargers have the sixth-highest projected line yards per our offensive efficiency tool. 

Since Week 6

Full season

Keenan Allen is the primary stack option for Herbert. Allen has been the stalwart of this passing attack with only one week below a 21% target share this season. Since Week 6, he has had a 29% target share and 35% of the team’s air yards. Allen leads the team in first read share (33%) and red zone target share (25%). Allen will run about 61% of his routes against Kyle Fuller in the slot this week. Fuller has allowed a 52.6% catch rate but also three receiving touchdowns and a 107.9 passer rating. 

Mike Williams is not in play this week as his target share has fallen since Week 6 to 15%. Williams is still first in end zone target share (34%) and right on Allen’s heels with a 23% red-zone target share. Williams will run about 82% of his routes from the perimeter against Patrick Surtain and Ronald Darby. Over his last four games, Surtain is allowing a 36.4% catch rate and 86.9 passer rating. Darby, over this span, has given up a 56% catch rate and 70.9 passer rating. 

The Chargers tight end room isn’t on the table this week for DFS. Denver is 10th in DVOA against the position. They are the only NFL team to not allow a receiving touchdown to a tight end. 

Broncos

Denver is a team I’ll only roster a few of their skill players in mini correlations or as run backs to a Chargers’ stack. The DFS targets here are Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant. Since Jeudy’s return he has led the team in target share (24.6%) and air yards (170). Jeudy has run about 79% of his routes from the slot. This week he matches up against a burnable Chris Harris. Harris has allowed a 69.6% catch rate and 113.3 passer rating since Week 5. 

Since Week 8

In his two full games since Week 8 with Jeudy, Fant has a 17% target share playing an average of 76% of the snaps. Overall this season Fant leads the team with a 23% red zone target share. The weekly moto should be if you’re not playing a tight end against the Eagles you should look up whoever faces the Chargers. Los Angeles is ranked 28th in DVOA against the position. Despite ranking 19th (73) in targets against the position opposing tight ends have rolled up 625 receiving yards (10th most) and the most receiving touchdowns (nine, tied with PHI). Cortland Sutton despite receiving a nice payday has become an afterthought with Jeudy back. Since Week 8 he has an 11% target share. 

Weeks 8-11

The Broncos backfield remains a dead heat. Melvin Gordon put the ball on the turf in his last game, but I doubt at this point that changes this landscape. These two players will likely be frustrating to roster in DFS for the rest of the season. While the Chargers look like a team to target on the ground, I’m not going in that direction this week. They have allowed the second-most rushing yards (1,199) and second-most rushing touchdowns (13) to running backs, but since Week 6, they have been a much-improved front between the 20s. Since Week 6, they have the ninth-lowest explosive run rate and have allowed only 3.8 yards per carry. This has come against four offensive lines (BAL, NE, PHI, MIN) that since Week 6 rank inside the top-12 in yards before contact per attempt. The one area the Chargers have remained vulnerable is in the red zone, ranking 30th in red zone rushing defense over this dominant stretch. The problem even if you’re going touchdown hunting here, which running back do you feel strong about rostering with a near 50/50 split in all phases? Thanks, but all things considered, I’ll look to other backfields this week. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler, Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy
GPP only: N/A

Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers

LAR -1.5, O/U 47

Pace and playcalling

This game will finish as a below-average affair in terms of pace. That’s not by any fault of the Rams who are 12th in neutral pace, but when you play the Packers who are last in the league in pace in neutral environments this is what you have to deal with. 

Both teams do feature strong passing rates with the Rams leading the way at sixth (62.4%) followed by the Packers at 13th (58.8%). 

Injuries

Los Angeles

• No notable injuries

Green Bay

• David Bakhtiari (OL) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Aaron Jones (RB) – (Knee – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Kevin King (CB) – (Hip/Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Doubtful
• Allen Lazard (WR) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Rams

Matthew Stafford has a tall order this week against the Packers. They are 12th in pass-defense DVOA allowing a 72.5% adjusted completion rate (24th) and 6.6 yards per attempt (27th). Before getting shredded by Kirk Cousins last week, the Packers were routinely shutting down top-shelf quarterbacks. Since Week 5, they have allowed Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson to complete only 59.4% of their passes with 5.9 yards per attempt and a 2:7 passing touchdown to interception ratio. I’ll probably look to the opposite sideline if rostering a quarterback from this one in a game that could shoot out. Despite the tough assignment, Stafford’s price is still sky-high (QB3 $7,100 DraftKings, QB6 $7,700 FanDuel). 

Darrell Henderson is a large field game stack only play for me this week. Green Bay has been an improved run defense as of late. Overall this season, they are 25th in rushing yards allowed to running backs which doesn’t jump off the page, but since Week 7, they have been even tougher. Over that span, they are giving up the ninth-lowest explosive run rate. They have still been susceptible in the red zone, ranking 27th in rushing defense inside the 20. To Henderson’s detriment, Los Angeles has been throwing at the sixth-highest rate (68.9%) since Week 7 once they get near paydirt. Henderson’s near 90% snap rate seems like a thing of the past as he’s averaged 65% snaps over his late three games with 12.7 touches and only 64 total yards. 

Cooper Kupp has shown this year that matchups matter little to him. He has nine or more targets in every game. In 70% of his games, he has exceeded 100 yards receiving or scored multiple receiving touchdowns. Kupp leads all receivers with a 32% target share and 24 red-zone targets. He’s also 12th in end zone targets (seven), tying teammates Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee. Kupp will run about 65% of his routes from the slot against Chandon Sullivan. Sullivan has allowed a 61.5% catch rate and 60.9 passer rating since Week 6. 

Van Jefferson and Odell Beckham are large-field game stack or MME plays only. Jefferson will see Rasul Douglas on about half of his routes, allowing a 58.8% catch rate and 70.6 passer rating over his last six games. Beckham’s snaps and share of this offense are a mystery. Sean McVay has stated he will be more involved this week and play a big role. It’s not hard to play more than the 27% snaps he played against the 49ers and see more than three targets. Beckham will run about 86% of his routes against Douglas and Eric Stokes. Stokes has given up a 57.8% catch rate and 114.1 passer rating since Week 6. 

Tyler Higbee is in play this week. This season he’s seen a 14% target share and is second in red zone target share (20%). The Packers are 26th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the fifth-most receptions (61). 

Packers

Aaron Rodgers is finally on the DFS list as a core play. No, this isn’t point chasing after his big game last week. This is all matchup based against the Rams’ secondary. While they are 10th in pass defense DVOA, this is all fake window dressing that Rodgers can exploit against a team that can push the Packers to score this week. Los Angeles is allowing the third-highest adjusted completion rate (78.8%). They have held opposing quarterback scoring down by only allowing 12 passing touchdowns (second fewest), but Rodgers can gash them for big plays in this matchup. The Rams are giving up the league’s highest deep adjusted completion rate, but with only the third-lowest deep attempts against them, this has remained a hidden crack in the pavement. Rodgers will expose it in Week 12. He’s fifth in deep attempts (46) with the sixth-most deep passing yards (605). 

It looks like Aaron Jones could make his return this week. He and AJ Dillon are both off the radar if that happens. The Rams have given up the ninth-fewest rushing yards to opposing backs (838), and since Week 7, they have the fourth-lowest explosive run rate allowed. Over that same stretch, they are 30th in red zone rushing defense, so it’s possible for Rodgers to heave some passes deep and one or both of these backs to get short porch touchdown opportunities. In Jones’ last three healthy games, he split early-down touches with Dillon while still holding the upper hand in the red zone and on passing downs. Jones could easily return to this type of role in Week 12, or the team could ease him in with a 5050 split. Jones has yet to log a full practice, so it’s not a slam dunk he’s at full health yet.

Weeks 7-9

Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are core plays this week. Adams is, of course, near the top of any receiver list in multiple categories. He’s second in target share (30%), fourth in first read targets (89), and seventh in red-zone targets (15). While yes, he will see Jalen Ramsey some in this game, Ramsey won’t shadow. He has not shadowed all year. Adams will run about 60% of his routes on the perimeter against Jalen Ramsey, Darious Williams or David Long, depending on the Rams’ corner alignments. Since Week 5, Ramsey is allowing a 73.3% catch rate and 88.7 passer rating. Williams has only played in a limited fashion because of injury is allowing a 75% catch rate and 135.9 passer rating. Long has also been league average surrendering a 70% catch rate and 96.7 passer rating. 

Since returning to the starting lineup, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has seen a 14.6% target share with 31% of the team’s air yards. His snaps have trended up weekly (54%, then 66%, then 81%). As I say, weekly play Valdes-Scantling against teams that struggle deep. The Rams emphatically check this box. Since Week 9, Valdes-Scantling leads the team with six deep targets (Adams, four). 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
GPP only: Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee

Minnesota Vikings vs. San Francisco 49ers

SF -3, O/U 49

Pace and playcalling

Minnesota is still burning up the turf. They rank third in neutral pace, while the 49ers drag through games at 24th. The Vikings and 49ers have opposite offensive philosophies this season. Mike Zimmer’s bunch is 12th in neutral passing rate (59.2%), while San Francisco has the third-highest neutral rushing rate (49.2%). 

Injuries

Minnesota

• Bashaud Breeland (CB) – (Groin – LP / LP / ) – Status: Questionable
• Wyatt Davis (OL) – (Ankle – / LP / DNP) – Status: OUT

San Francisco

• JaMycal Hasty (RB) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Elijah Mitchell (RB) – (Finger/Ribs – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Vikings

The 49ers pass defense might rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA, but they have been tougher when we zoom in. San Francisco is 11th in adjusted completion rate, but they are also ranked 24th in yards per attempt and have allowed only 13 passing touchdowns (third-fewest). They are 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, but much of that is because they have given up the most rushing yards (298) and the second-most rushing touchdowns (four) to the position. Unless Kirk Cousins and Kellen Mond switch jerseys without the media knowing, I don’t see Cousins taking advantage of this aspect. 

Dalvin Cook is a player I want exposure to in GPPs this week. The 49ers look tough on paper against running backs, only allowing 801 rushing yards (27th) and 17.8 fantasy points per game (16th). This defense hasn’t been tested by many backs with good offensive lines that have been fed volume. They have faced five teams with offensive lines that find themselves in the top ten in two of the three categories I care about (adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open-field yards). Those teams are Detroit, Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Los Angeles (Rams), and Jacksonville. James Robinson is limping along down the stretch, so we can push his 2.9 yards per carry to the side. The other four backfields ran for 5.1 yards per carry. Jonathan Taylor got the most carries of the bunch with 18, turning them into 107 rushing yards. Taylor is a good comparison if we’re comparing rushing attributes and upside here. He’s playing out of his mind this year, but Cook is on the same level in terms of elusiveness. Cook is second in breakaway runs and seventh in evaded tackles. Since Week 6, Minnesota’s offensive line is 12th in yards before contact per attempts. Cook can smash this week and will be overlooked. 

Justin Jefferson is 13th in target share (24%) and fourth in air yard share (41%) among wide receivers. He has seen a 29% end zone target share and 27% red zone target share. Jefferson is the only receiving option I will roster from Minnesota because he can rip Josh Norman in half. He’ll run about half of his routes against Norman who (since Week 6) is allowing a 75% catch rate and 118.9 passer rating. Adam Thielen will see Emmanuel Moselely for most of the game, who is giving up a 59% catch rate and 77.1 passer rating. 

49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo is playing extremely good football over the last three weeks. He’s completing 72.8% of passes with 8.4 yards per attempt, but sadly with the volume he’s given he only has 228 passing yards per game. He’s rarely ever even in the MME discussion and doesn’t make the group chat this week either. 

With Elijah Mitchell looking to possibly return this week, this is a situation to avoid. In Week 10 Mitchell was the clear leader of the backfield on early downs while he split red zone work with Jeff Wilson. The carries could be more 50/50 with Wilson ready to rock and Mitchell nursing the finger injury. The Vikings are a middle of the road matchup for backs, allowing 977 rushing yards (14th). While they are 31st in stuff rate, Minnesota is also allowing the sixth-lowest explosive run rate. 

Week 10

The 49ers could look to move the ball through the air like last week to get up on the scoreboard and then grind away the clock. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel look like the best candidates to lead that charge. George Kittle is taken out of the mix by facing a defense ranked eighth in DVOA, allowing only 450 receiving yards (24th) to tight ends. 

Since Week 9

Since Week 9, Aiyuk has had a 25.6% target share and 26.3% of the team’s air yards. He’ll run about half of his routes against Patrick Peterson. Over Peterson’s last four games played, he has allowed a 54.5% catch rate and 70.8 passer rating. Samuel is my preferred option in this game if you’re looking at only one player. Samuel has a 19.6% target share over his last three games, but he’s seen a massive bump in his rushing involvement. Over the last two games, he has had 6.5 rushing attempts and 57.5 rushing yards per game. He’ll run about 65% of his routes against Bashaud Breeland and Mackensie Alexander. Breeland has allowed a 60% catch rate and 73.3 passer rating over his last seven games. Over that same stretch, Alexander is giving up a 60% catch rate and 101.7 passer rating. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Dalvin Cook

GPP only: Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk

Core DFS Plays

QB:

• Joe Burrow
• Tom Brady
• Cam Newton (DK/Superdraft)
• Matt Ryan
• Tyrod Taylor
• Justin Herbert
• Aaron Rodgers

RB:

• Joe Mixon
• Najee Harris
• Jonathan Taylor
• Christian McCaffrey
• Austin Ekeler
• Dalvin Cook

WR:

High-priced

• Davante Adams
• Keenan Allen
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Mike Evans
• Chris Godwin

Mid-priced 

• Brandin Cooks
• Jerry Jeudy
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling

TE:

• Kyle Pitts
• Noah Fant

Favorite GPP Stacks:

• Cincinnati Bengals
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Green Bay Packers
• Houston Texans
• Atlanta Falcons