NFL Futures: The Best Bet For All 32 Teams

The 2021 NFL regular season is almost here. We have only a few days left to get in all the futures bets we like. So here are my 32 favorite season-long bets, one for each NFL team, using our FTN Prop Shop to find the best lines for each bet.

To see the other bets I’ve made for the upcoming NFL season — including a side or total for every Week 1 game — check out our FTN Bet Tracker.

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AFC WEST

Kansas City Chiefs

• Bet: Over 12.5 Wins
• Odds: +120, BetMGM

As I mention in my piece on three-team win totals to bet, I tend to bet unders in this market, but I can’t help myself in this instance. The Chiefs have rebuilt their offensive line and now have one of the best on-paper units in the league.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been the league’s best player over the past three years, and head coach Andy Reid is a great offensive mastermind who also happens to be perennially disrespected: In Reid’s eight years with the Chiefs, he has an 8-0 win total record. I will gladly bet on Reid — at plus money — to do what he’s always done.

Pick: Over 12.5 Wins (+120) at BetMGM

Los Angeles Chargers

• Bet: To Win Super Bowl 56
• Odds: +3300, FanDuel

This is one of the bets I highlight in my piece on three Super Bowl futures I like.

The Chargers are challenged in that they’re in a division with the strong Chiefs and potential-laden Broncos, but I still like them. Quarterback Justin Herbert is an ascending second-year quarterback coming off a historic 4,336-31-10 passing campaign with a 66.6% completion rate, and I expect him to be better this year within new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s system.

On top of that, Herbert should have an improved offensive line with the additions of center Corey Linsley, guard Matt Feiler, and first-round tackle Rashawn Slater. With wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, tight ends Jared Cook and Donald Parham, and running back Austin Ekeler, Herbert has a top-10 quintet of pass-catching weapons.

On defense, with new head coach Brandon Staley (former Rams coordinator), the Chargers should also be better with the return of All-Pro safety Derwin James and the addition of second-round cornerback Asante Samuel.

With playmakers and opportunity for notable development on both sides of the ball, the Chargers have underappreciated upside.

Pick: To Win Super Bowl (+3300) at FanDuel

Denver Broncos

• Bet: Not to Make Playoffs
• Odds: -150, DraftKings

The Broncos are strong everywhere except quarterback — but the NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and the Broncos have a defense-based head coach in Vic Fangio, an uninspiring offensive coordinator in Pat Shurmur, and the combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock under center.

I have the Broncos as the No. 3 team in the division, so their path to the postseason will be difficult. At -150, they have a 60% implied probability of not making the playoffs (per our Betting Odds Calculator), but I think their true odds of missing the postseason are closer to 65% or even 70%.

Pick: Not to Make Playoffs (-150) at DraftKings

Las Vegas Raiders

• Bet: Under 7 Wins
• Odds: +100, Caesars

The Raiders are in a tough division, and they also must face the AFC North and NFC East, so they have one of the league’s least-friendly schedules. On top of that, they likely got worse this season with the dismantling of their offensive line (they are without tackle Trent Brown, guard Gabe Jackson, and center Rodney Hudson).

They are without their 2020 No. 1 wide receiver in Nelson Agholor, and they just cut veteran John Brown, the offseason acquisition they hoped would replace Agholor. If I can make a juiceless bet that head coach Jon Gruden will disappoint, I almost always will.

Pick: Under 7 Wins (+100) at Caesars

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AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens

• Bet: Over 10.5 Wins
• Odds: -145, Caesars

The AFC North is a tough division, and I generally loath betting overs on win totals — but the Ravens are not a typical team. They have great continuity on the coaching staff with head coach John Harbaugh, offensive coordinator Greg Roman, and defensive coordinator Don Martindale. With Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, the Ravens are 6-1, 13-2, and 11-4 over the past three years.

The Ravens are a Super Bowl-caliber team, and they should be even better this year than they were last year, especially on offense, with the additions of wide receivers Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins and guard Kevin Zeitler. In his 13 years with the Ravens, Harbaugh has a win-total record of 8-4-1.

Pick: Over 10.5 Wins (-145) at Caesars

Cleveland Browns

• Bet: Nick Chubb Under 1,350.5 Rushing Yards
• Odds: -111, BetMGM

It’s amazing I made it through five teams before settling on a player prop. I’m sort of impressed with myself. While I think most Browns futures are roughly where they should be, this prop on Nick Chubb feels off. In our 2021 FTN player projections, we have him projected for 1,205 yards rushing, and that’s in line with other sharp projection sets I’ve seen.

Chubb is one of my players to avoid in fantasy football. He is a great runner, one of the best between-the-tackles playmakers in the league. Of all backs with 100-plus carries last year, Chubb was No. 1 with a 17.9% gash rate.

But in the words of Renly Baratheon: ‘Do you still believe good soldiers make good kings?’ With Kareem Hunt sharing the backfield, Chubb — as efficient as he is — might struggle to earn the sheer volume of snaps and carries he needs to be a high-end fantasy producer and to hit the over. Being talented is not the same thing as racking up stats. 

The Browns also have a fantastic offensive line.

But volume is king at the running back position, and that makes Chubb more of a soldier than a monarch. 

Pick: Nick Chubb Under 1,350.5 Rushing Yards (-111) at BetMGM

Pittsburgh Steelers

• Bet: JuJu Smith-Schuster Most Receiving Yards
• Odds: +20000, PointsBet

I love most of the overs for rookie running back Najee Harris — but this longshot bet on JuJu Smith-Schuster really speaks to my soul. This is one of my favorite receiving longshot futures, and I’m not alone in my bullishness for Smith-Schuster.

In Ep. 3 of the Primetime Fantasy Football podcast, high-stakes dominators Nelson Sousa and Matthew Davis talk about some of the reasons they are bullish on JuJu Smith-Schuster in 2021

Smith-Schuster is not yet 25 years old, he has a 1,439-yard season to his name, and for his career, he has a respectable mark of 8.3 yards per target (including postseason). For reference: That’s the exact same average Adams has had over the past half-decade.

In 17 games last year (again, including playoffs) Smith-Schuster had 110 receptions on 147 targets. If in 2021 he enjoys similar usage and regresses toward career-average efficiency, Smith-Schuster could have a massive campaign. 

Smith-Schuster is one of Nelson’s mid-round fantasy draft targets.

To get all of Nelson’s analysis, check out his high-stakes fantasy package, which comes with coaching sessions and Sousa’s rankings.

Pick: JuJu Smith-Schuster Most Receiving Yards (+20000) at PointsBet

Cincinnati Bengals

• Bet: Under 6.5 Wins
• Odds: -110, BetMGM

The Bengals are significantly outclassed by the rest of the AFC North on their roster and coaching staff. The Bengals have a porous defense and weak offensive line, and head coach Zac Taylor — if that’s how his name is even spelled — has a 6-25-1 record.

Quarterback Joe Burrow (knee) is returning from his season-ending injury, but he’s unlikely to be  at 100% health to start the year, and he went only 2-7-1 last year anyway. The Bengals have added explosive wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase to the team — but Chase hasn’t played a regular season game in over 18 months.

Even with the extra game, I doubt the Bengals can jump up from 4 to 7 wins, given that the failed to make significant upgrades this offseason.

Pick: Under 6.5 Wins (-110) at BetMGM

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee Titans

• Bet: Under 9.5 Wins
• Odds: -110, BetMGM

At DraftKings, where the line is 9 wins, an unreal 99% of the money is on the over.

If you’re telling me I can massively fade the public while also getting a higher number betting against a defense-based head coach in Mike Vrabel who last year had a bottom-10 defense, then I’m going to do it without question.

I know that the AFC South is weak and that the Titans should theoretically run away with the division. But last year the 11-5 Titans had a Pythagorean win total of just 9.1 wins (based on their points scored and allowed), and this offseason they lost offensive coordinator Arthur Smith without making (in my mind) enough upgrades on defense.

The Titans went 8-2 last year in one-score games. Sooner or later, regression comes for us all.

Pick: Under 9.5 Wins (-110) at BetMGM

Indianapolis Colts

• Bet: Jonathan Taylor Most Rushing Yards
• Odds: +1200, Caesars

This is one of my favorite longshot rushing futures. It’s not hard to see how Jonathan Taylor could disappoint this year: After all, Carson Wentz is his quarterback.

But when betting on season-long futures, I like to focus on a player’s path to a best-case outcome, and Taylor has a conceivable path to 2021 rushing dominance. Taylor could take a sizable step forward in his second season, and he balled out as a rookie starting in Week 10 with 140-819-8 rushing in his final seven games (including playoffs).

The Colts have a strong offensive line, and with Wentz at quarterback they could lean heavily on the running game. I think Taylor’s true odds of leading the league in rushing are probably closer to 10% than the 7.69% implied probability found at Caesars.

Pick: Jonathan Taylor Most Rushing Yards (+1200) at Caesars

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Bet: Under 6.5 Wins
• Odds: -120, PointsBet

Just do a Google search for head coach Urban Meyer.  We satisfied?

The guy hasn’t even coached an NFL game yet, and he’s already under investigation by the NFLPA, essentially for being foolish enough to say what most coaches are probably thinking. He drafted a running back in the first round — and now he won’t even get the benefit of using that back in 2021.

He took one of the best quarterback prospects of all time with the No. 1 pick — and then he decided not to give that guy all of the first-team preseason snaps, just so he could pretend that the Jags were having a competition for the starting job.

And the Jags went 1-15 last year.

In an outlier scenario, the Jags could win the AFC South, because the division is so weak — but I think the median outcome calls for the Jags to underwhelm in Meyer’s first NFL season.

Pick: Under 6.5 Wins (-120) at PointsBet

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Houston Texans

• Bet: Brandin Cooks Most Receiving Yards
• Odds: +10000, PointsBet

A not insignificant part of me wanted to highlight the -1111 bet on the Texans not to make the playoffs (at Caesars) — because I think that line should be closer to -2000 — but what’s the point in writing about something that has at least a 90% probability to happen?

So I’ll go in the opposite direction and talk about a Brandin Cooks longshot bet.

Not every guy who leads the league in receiving is an obvious baller. Sometimes a guy seemingly comes from nowhere to dominate. Think back to 2010, when Brandon Lloyd led the league with 1,448 yards receiving on 153 targets for a pass-heavy Broncos team with a 4-12 record.

We could see something similar with Brandin Cooks in 2021. The Texans have a league-low win total of 3.5 at some books and will likely need to throw the ball frequently in a come-from-behind game script.

After Cooks, the Texans have no established wide receivers: Will Fuller departed in free agency, Randall Cobb just returned to the Packers via trade, Anthony Miller (shoulder) is dealing with an injury of unknown severity, and Keke Coutee was just cut.

Cooks could be filthy with targets this year, and in the six seasons following his rookie year, he has five 1,000-yard receiving campaigns. Plus, there’s the outside possibility that quarterback Deshaun Watson — who is still with the Texans and not technically suspended by the team or the NFL — will play some games this year.

Cooks is one of my 10 favorite upside fantasy wide receivers.

Pick: Brandin Cooks Most Receiving Yards (+10000) at PointsBet

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills

• Josh Allen Under 500.5 Yards Rushing
• Odds: -111, BetMGM

The Bills futures are where I think they should be. I’m a little tempted to bet over 11 wins because head coach Sean McDermott has a 4-0 win total record — but 11 is a high number, and I respect the AFC East.

So I’m looking at the player markets, and quarterback Josh Allen’s rushing prop catches my eye. In his first two seasons, Allen was more of a running quarterback, but last year he became more of a passer, abandoning the pocket less and looking to make plays downfield instead of tucking the ball and scrambling.

Over the past three years, Allen has increasingly run with less frequency and efficiency.

• 2018: 7.4 carries per game, 7.1 yards per carry
• 2019: 6.8 carries per game, 4.7 yards per carry
• 2020: 6.4 carries per game, 4.1 yards per carry

As Allen continues to develop as a passer, I expect him to run with less urgency.

Pick: Josh Allen under 500.5 Rushing Yards (-111) at BetMGM

Miami Dolphins

• Bet: To Win Super Bowl 56
• Odds: +4000, MGM

In the AFC East, much of the attention is on the Buffalo Bills, who have MVP candidate quarterback Josh Allen, and the New England Patriots and New York Jets, who have rookie quarterbacks Mac Jones and Zach Wilson.

But the Dolphins are the team catching my eye. With the arrival of head coach Brian Flores two years ago, they have focused on rebuilding the roster with a long-term analytics-based mindset, and I think this is the year that perspective turns into on-field production.

In his first month of action in 2019, Flores utterly tore down the roster. Unsurprisingly, the Dolphins went 0-4 in that span and looked like one of the worst teams in NFL history. Since then, however, the Dolphins have been galvanized into one of the league’s toughest teams, going 20-8 against the spread and markedly outperforming expectations.

As the saying goes, good teams win, but great teams cover — and the Dolphins have covered more than almost any other team over the past two years. 

On offense, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa could progress in his second season, and the team has upgraded its pass-catching capacity with wide receivers Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. As Chris Meaney and Jake Ciely discuss in their Dolphins team preview on Mean Streets, Tagovailoa now has some good receiving options.

On defense, the Dolphins have an upside-seeking unit with cornerbacks Xavien Howard, Byron Jones, Jason McCourty and Noah Igbinoghene in the secondary and edge defenders Emmanuel Ogbah and Jaelan Phillips to rush the passer.

Given the Dolphins’ young talent and soft schedule, I can see them finishing as one of the highest seeds in the AFC with a little luck.

Pick: To Win Super Bowl (+4000) at BetMGM

New England Patriots

• Bet: Under 9.5 Wins
• Odds: +100, PointsBet

The Patriots are starting a rookie quarterback in Week 1, and No. 1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore (quad, PUP) will miss at least the first six weeks of the season.

The other three teams in the AFC East are ascending, and head coach Bill Belichick — as great as he is — has a 2-6 win-total record for his career without quarterback Tom Brady.

Pick: Under 9.5 Wins (+100) at PointsBet

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New York Jets

• Bet: Denzel Mims Under 525.5 Receiving Yards
• Odds: -130, BetMGM

This line should be closer to 252.5 than the 525.5 we see in the market. That a sportsbook even has a prop for Denzel Mims is incredible.

Based on his preseason usage, it would not be surprising if Mims finished the season as the No. 6 wide receiver on the Jets behind Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder, Keelan Cole, and even Braxton Berrios.

Mims was selected in the second round of the NFL draft just last year, but he has been inherited from the old regime of Adam Gase, and new head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur are reportedly not taken with his skill set.

Betting the under on Mims is one of my favorite bets of the entire offseason.

Pick: Denzel Mims Under 525.5 Receiving Yards (-130) at BetMGM

NFC WEST

San Francisco 49ers

• Bet: Raheem Mostert Most Rushing Yards
• Odds: +9000, FanDuel

I first bet this at +10000 at DraftKings, but I still like it at +9000.

Most people assume that third-round rookie Trey Sermon will split carries with veteran Raheem Mostert and eventually emerge as the lead back, but what if they’re wrong?

In Weeks 1-2 of the preseason, Mostert got starter treatment by sitting out both games, and then in Week 3 he took all of the snaps on the first drive of the game. Later, after putting up a 7-53-0 rushing line, he sat with the rest of the starters while Sermon continued to play. Mostert is the clear starter, and going back to 2019 he is 221-1,236-13 rushing over his past 16 games (including playoffs).

If Sermon underwhelms and Mostert stays healthy and keeps the No. 1 back job, he could be a surprise league leader at the end of the season, especially if rookie quarterback Trey Lance eventually takes the starting job and uses his dual-threat ability to open up rushing lanes for Mostert.

Pick: Raheem Mostert Most Rushing Yards (+9000) at FanDuel

Los Angeles Rams

• Bet: Over 9.5 Wins
• Odds: -149, BetMGM

Head coach Sean McVay is 43-21 in the regular season for his career and has hit double-digit wins in 3-of-4 seasons.

The NFC West is a tough division, but the Rams have upgraded at quarterback with Matthew Stafford, and even though they lost defensive coordinator Brandon Staley this offseason they still have two difference-making All-Pros on that side of the ball with defensive tackle Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey.

Pick: Over 9.5 Wins (-149) at BetMGM

Seattle Seahawks

• Bet: Russell Wilson Most Passing Yards
• Odds: +3700, FanDuel

I first bet this at +4400, but it still has value at +3700. 

I’ve already written about Russell Wilson in multiple places for FTN. He’s one of my five upside fantasy quarterbacks to draft, and one of my 10 bold calls for 2021 is that Wilson will be the No. 1 fantasy quarterback.

As I noted in July on the Fade the Chalk podcast, 2021 may be the year that Wilson stays in the kitchen and cooks for the entire campaign.

Wide receiver DK Metcalf should enter his full studness this season as a third-year professional. With Metcalf’s ability to make plays, Wilson will have an incredibly high week-to-week ceiling.

And I expect the Seahawks to lean on the passing attack. This offseason, they replaced run-focused offensive play caller Brian Schottenheimer with Shane Waldron, who coordinated the Rams passing game the past few years. Additionally, this offseason they gave wide receiver Tyler Lockett a four-year, $69.2 million contract extension with $37 million guaranteed and added dynamic tight end Gerald Everett via free agency.

On top of that, the Seahawks selected wide receiver D’Wayne Eskridge in Round 2 with their first pick of the 2021 draft even though they already had Metcalf, Lockett, and Everett.

Given the recent investments the Seahawks have made in the passing game, they might finally be willing to go all-in on Wilson as a high-volume passer.

Last year, he was No. 1 in the league with 59 end-zone targets and No. 6 with 948 yards passing on attempts of 20-plus yards. If Wilson throws the ball even a little more in 2021, he could annihilate expectations.

Pick: Russell Wilson Most Passing Yards (+3700) at FanDuel

Arizona Cardinals

• Bet: Kyler Murray Over 675.5 Rushing Yards
• Odds: -111, BetMGM

As I mention in my preseason Cardinals breakdown, quarterback Kyler Murray last year was a different player before and after his season-altering shoulder injury in Week 11. The difference is manifest in his rushing numbers.

• Weeks 1-10: 6.94 yards per carry, 9.7 attempts per game
• Weeks 11-17: 4.67 yards per carry, 6.6 attempts per game

ut even with his injury, Murray still had 819 yards rushing last year, and now the season is one game longer. I think this line should be at least 50 yards higher.

Pick: Kyler Murray Over 675.5 Rushing Yards (-111) at BetMGM

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NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers

• Bet: Over 10.5 Wins
• Odds: +110, BetMGM

It’s probably too simplistic to say that the Packers are 13-3 in each of their two seasons under head coach Matt LaFleur and that they play in the vulnerable NFC North and that they have top-five players at their respective positions in quarterback Aaron Rodgers, wide receiver Davante Adams, and cornerback Jaire Alexander.

But that’s what I’m saying.

Pick: Over 10.5 Wins (+110) at BetMGM

Minnesota Vikings

• Bet: Justin Jefferson Most Receiving Yards
• Odds: +1500, Caesars

It’s easy to be bullish on Justin Jefferson. Last year, he had the most receiving yards in NFL history for a rookie with 1,400, and he could enjoy a secondary breakout this season given that he was only No. 18 in 2020 with 125 targets.

He opened last year as the primary slot receiver for the Vikings and underwhelmed in that role, but after moving to the perimeter in Week 3 he flashed with a top-three mark of 95 yards per game.

Wide receiver Adam Thielen is aging and likely to regress, and tight end Irv Smith Jr. (meniscus) is almost certain to miss the entire season — and that means that Jefferson could push for 10-plus targets per game.

If you’re lucky enough to have the top pick in your fantasy drafts, Jefferson is an ideal receiver to snag at the turn of Rounds 2-3.

Pick: Justin Jefferson Most Receiving Yards (+1500) at Caesar’s

Chicago Bears

• Bet: Not to Make Playoffs
• Odds: -179, Caesars

This bet is more about good old-fashioned line-shopping value than about anything else. While this is -179 at Caesars, it’s markedly higher at other books.

• FanDuel: -250
• BetMGM: -278
• DraftKings: -280
• PointsBet: -299

The Bears have been definitionally mediocre over the past two years with back-to-back 8-8 records, and now they are starting quarterback Andy Dalton in Week 1.

Some teams would rather focus more on not losing than on winning, and the Bears are one of those teams.

Pick: Not to Make Playoffs (-179) at Caesars

Detroit Lions

• Bet: D’Andre Swift Under 900.5 Yards Rushing
• Odds: -111, BetMGM

How many positive, run-leaning game scripts are the lowly Lions going to have this season? And when they do run, isn’t it likely to be the bigger Jamaal Williams carrying the ball?

This line should be at least 100 yards lower, especially considering that running back D’Andre Swift (groin, core) is unlikely to be 100% healthy to start the year.

Pick: D’Andre Swift Under 900.5 Yards Rushing (-111) at BetMGM 

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NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bet: Over 11.5 Wins
• Odds:-150, FanDuel

I really don’t like betting overs, but with some of these elite teams I can’t help myself. The Buccaneers went only 11-5 last year in quarterback Tom Brady’s first season with the team, but they closed the season with an 8-0 run to win the Super Bowl, and the Bucs return this year with all of their starters.

The NFC South is not what it once was: The Saints and Panthers head into Week 1 with Jameis Winston and Sam Darnold at quarterback, and the Falcons will open the season without wide receiver Julio Jones for the first time in a decade.

Quarterback is the most important position in professional sports, and Brady’s win-total record is 15-2-2 (excluding 2000 and 2008).

Pick: Over 11.5 Wins (-150) at FanDuel

New Orleans Saints

• Bet: Alvin Kamara Under 950.5 Rushing Yards
• Odds: -111, BetMGM

I bet the under on Kamara’s rushing yardage prop in July at 975.5, but I still like it here at 950.5. The last time Alvin Kamara rushed for at least 950.5 yards in a season was 2014 — at Hutchinson Community College.

Without quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints offense could be much worse, and Kamara will still need to compete for opportunities with backup Latavius Murray and rushing quarterback Taysom Hill, who combined last year for 233 carries.

Not one sharp projection set I’ve seen has Kamara slated for even 900 yards rushing.

Pick: Alvin Kamara Under 950.5 Rushing Yards (-111) at BetMGM

Atlanta Falcons

• Bet: Under 7.5 Wins
• Odds: +125, BetMGM

I don’t put much stock into how teams perform in the preseason, but in three preseason games this year the Falcons were outscored by 49 points — and that’s because they have no depth.

Head coach Arthur Smith seems like a great offensive play caller, but the Falcons no longer have wide receiver Julio Jones, and they still have the same roster issues that have led to 4-12, 7-9, and 7-9 records over the past three years.

Pick: Under 7.5 Wins (+125) at BetMGM

Carolina Panthers

• Bet: D.J. Moore Most Receiving Yards
• Odds: +4000, Caesars

I am very, very much on D.J. Moore this year. He’s one of my favorite breakout wide receivers. 

Here’s what I wrote about Moore in my 2021 fantasy football rankings article:

“Think of all the great receivers in the league. We are in a golden era of wide receiver play. Out of all those elite players, only one has managed to go over 1,200 scrimmage yards in each of the past two seasons — and that’s D.J. Moore. And he’s done it while catching passes from Teddy Bridgewater, Phillip Walker, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, and Cam Newton. He’s entering his prime at just 24 years old, and he could have more targets and advantageous usage coming his way this year now that Curtis Samuel is gone. His upside is massive.”

Calvin Ridley might disagree with me …

… but I think Moore is a top-tier receiver. As Adam Pfeifer has noted in his stellar ADP Decisions series, Moore has a developmental curve that gives him top-10 fantasy upside this year. I think this is the season Moore breaks into the upper echelon of fantasy receivers.

Pick: D.J. Moore Most Receiving Yards (+4000) at Caesars

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys

• Bet: Under 9.5 Wins
• Odds: -130, PointsBet

Even with quarterback Dak Prescott (ankle, shoulder) set to return in Week 1, the Cowboys have issues on offense. Left tackle Tyron Smith and right guard Zack Martin — the two All-Pro players who are the heart of the line — are on the wrong side of 30 years old. Young center Tyler Biadasz is an unproven replacement for retired All-Pro pivot man Travis Frederick. Right tackle La’el Collins has failed to live up to the hype he had when he entered the league five years ago, and left guard Connor Williams is middling at best.

This offense could be very explosive, but it could also be inconsistent.

And on defense, the team is a joke. They have little depth and should be almost as hapless this year as they were last year. It’s hard to fire coordinator Mike Nolan, hire any other random defensive coach in the league, and not automatically upgrade the position — but the Cowboys have somehow done it with their “addition” (cough) of coordinator Dan Quinn.

As for head coach Mike McCarthy, he has had Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and Dak Prescott as his starting quarterbacks over his 14-year career, and yet he’s managed a mediocre win total record of just 6-8.

He’s a man who knows how to make the least of a good situation.

Pick: Under 9.5 Wins (-130) at PointsBet

Washington Football Team

• Bet: Ryan Fitzpatrick to Win MVP
• Odds: +20000, DraftKings

Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the same faces/new places players I’m happy to roster in fantasy and back in the betting market. He has a strong collection of pass-catching talent with wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, tight end Logan Thomas and running backs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic.

And he has the YOLO-imbued ability to get hot and play above his level for an extended run. Fitzpatrick isn’t young, but over the past three years he is No. 9 with 7.87 adjusted yards per attempt (among all quarterbacks with 100 passes). He can still sling it.

Here’s what Derek Brown has to say about Fitzpatrick in his Football Team coaching and coordinator breakdown (excerpted):

“‘The Beard Magic Maestro’ has tangible upside in this offense. Last year in Weeks 1-6, he was the QB12 in fantasy points per game with a less-than-stellar cast surrounding him in Miami and an antiquated system by Chan Gailey. In Scott Turner’s scheme, he is due for multiple spike weeks, and if he’s able to minimize turnovers and hold the job for the entire season he could be a fantastic late-round value.”

Check out the entirety of Derek’s coaching and coordinator series.

What I like most about Fitzpatrick is his narrative: He’s a journeyman near the end of the road, he’s beloved by fans because of his Harvard-yet-everyman personality, and he’s playing for a football team that barely has a name.

Playing in the weak NFC East, Fitzpatrick and the Football Team — backed by a stout defense — could make a serious run during the season and win 12-plus games.

If that happens, Fitzpatrick could find himself in a 2002 Rich Gannon-esque MVP-winning situation. 

Pick: Ryan Fitzpatrick to Win MVP (+20000) at DraftKings

Philadelphia Eagles

• Bet: DeVonta Smith Over 999.5 Receiving Yards
• Odds: +300, DraftKings

This is a special DraftKings-only line, as DeVonta Smith’s receiving yardage prop is anywhere from 750.5 to 825.5 across the industry. (I’ve already bet on Smith over 749.5 yards: He’s one of the rookies I’m betting on for 2021.)

The 2020 Heisman Trophy winner was selected No. 10 overall, he should have some residual chemistry with quarterback Jalen Hurts from their time together at Alabama, and the Eagles have an unimpressive collection of receiving talent behind him. On top of that, Smith has looked good in the preseason.

We have Smith projected for 952 yards, so if he outperforms out expectations by even a little bit, he could hit the over at very favorable odds.

Pick: DeVonta Smith Over 999.5 Receiving Yards (+300) at DraftKings

New York Giants

• Bet: Kadarius Toney Under 524.5 Receiving Yards
• Odds: -145, BetMGM

Kadarius Toney has Round 1 draft capital and nice speed (4.41-second 40-yard dash), but he didn’t break out until his final year of collegiate eligibility, and that’s a massive red flag, suggesting that he’s less of a football player and more of an athlete — and that’s the kind of guy I want to bet against as a rookie.

It doesn’t help Toney at all that he could literally be No. 7 on the team in targets, behind wide receivers Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton, running back Saquon Barkley, and tight ends Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph.

On top of that, the Giants are still likely to underwhelm with quarterback Daniel Jones and offensive coordinator Jason Garrett guiding their offense.

Toney is just begging to be faded.

We have him projected for 360 yards receiving: I’m betting under 524.5 at almost any odds.

Pick: Kadarius Toney Under 524.5 Receiving Yards (-145) at BetMGM

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