Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Last week, I published a series on my favorite upside quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends for 2021 fantasy football.
And now I ask myself the question: What’s the real difference between a breakout player and an upside player?
Here’s my answer:
- The term “breakout player” might have a different kind of SEO juice.
- The breakout player has — by definition — not broken out yet, whereas an upside player might already have done so.
In other words, I view breakout players as a subset of upside players.
What all of this means pragmatically — especially for me, as a writer, a human being who is composing this piece the morning after the first night of the Fantasy Football Expo in Canton, Ohio — is that the players I highlight in this piece will be ones I’ve already touched on in my upside series.
Here are 12 of my favorite fantasy football breakout candidates for 2021.
Breakout quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts has notable downside. Of any quarterback with 100-plus pass attempts last year, Hurts was dead last with a 65.6% adjusted completion rate (per our Advanced Passing Stats Tool). He has an unproven wide receiver unit, and the Eagles have been linked to quarterback Deshaun Watson in the trade market.
But he also has clear upside. In his four starts last year he was 919-5-3 passing (albeit with a 51.9% completion rate) and 46-272-3 rushing. The sample is small, but with a new coaching staff, a full offseason to work as the starter, and an improved pass-catching arsenal, Hurts has an outside chance of becoming the first quarterback in NFL history with 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing.
It’s easy to be skeptical about Hurts, but entering his second season he bears a lot of similarities to 2019 Lamar Jackson — and we all know how well he played. I have an MVP ticket on Hurts at +10000 at DraftKings, and I’m very pleased to have gotten him at that number.
Kyle Murray likes over 20.5 passing touchdowns for Hurts. Yeah, baby.
Derek Brown has a great section on Hurts in his Eagles coaching and coordinator breakdown:
“Unless you’re projecting a Jalen Hurts injury or for him to be benched, it’s impossible to rank him outside of the top 12 quarterbacks in fantasy football. Hurts is dripping with top-five upside at the position if not higher in 2021. Last year in his three full games as the starter, as a rookie, he was the QB4 in fantasy points per game inside a broken offensive system that wasn’t tailored to his strengths. I dove deep into Jalen Hurts’ history as a passer earlier this offseason and what it meant for this season. In a scheme that will better suit his strengths on top of his equity as a rusher, the sky is the limit. The only person who can hold Hurts back is Hurts.”
Do yourself a favor and check out the entirety of Derek’s NFL coaching and coordinator series.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
We don’t know yet if Trey Lance will be the Week 1 starter for the 49ers, but quarterbacks selected as high as Lance was (No. 3 overall) tend to see significant playing time as rookies, and I want to be invested in Lance.
In my updated dynasty fantasy football rankings, I have Lance as the QB7 — right ahead of Trevor Lawrence.
Why am I so bullish on Lance? With his Konami Code rushing ability (1,159 yards rushing in 16 games as a redshirt freshman), Lance has a high floor, and in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system he should have a high ceiling as a passer, given the fantastic yards-after-catch players around him, namely wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle and running back Raheem Mostert.
As a borderline fantasy QB2/3, Lance is basically a freeroll with 2020 Jalen Hurts-esque late-season league-winning upside. He is one of high-stakes dominator Nelson Sousa’s late-round draft targets.
To get all of Sousa’s analysis, check out his high-stakes fantasy package, which comes with coaching sessions and Sousa’s rankings.
Lance is one of the late-round quarterbacks in Jeff Ratcliffe’s 2021 fantasy football draft plan: “He has the makings of a fantasy breakout if he’s able to wrestle the job away from Jimmy Garoppolo.”
Breakout running backs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
In Episode 1 of the Primetime Fantasy Football podcast, Nelson Sousa and Matthew Davis talk about all the reasons you should be bullish on Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2021.
Sousa in particular is very high on Edwards-Helaire, who is one of his breakout running backs of 2021.
Here’s why I’m high on Edwards-Helaire: He’s a second-year lead back with a first-round pedigree and three-down skill set. Even in a disappointing rookie campaign, he had 1,100 yards and five touchdowns on 181 carries and 54 targets in 13 games last year.
The Chiefs have overhauled their offensive line, which should be significantly better this year with the additions of left tackle Orlando Brown, left guard Joe Thuney and center Austin Blythe.
With the departure of veteran Le’Veon Bell, Edwards-Helaire now has little competition for snaps on the depth chart, which means he has a legitimate shot at 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns as the top back in an offense guided by quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid.
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
Early in July, I jumped onto the Fade the Chalk podcast to talk with Derek Brown and Adam Pfeifer about some bold calls.
As I mentioned on the pod and later again in a piece on my top bold predictions for 2021, I believe Myles Gaskin will be a top-12 fantasy back:
“He opened 2020 as a rotational player and missed six games to injury and COVID-19, but once he became the clear lead back in Week 3, Gaskin was an undeniable producer with 126-498-3 rushing and 31-326-2 receiving in his final eight games.
Gaskin is undersized: He’s currently listed at 5-foot-10 and 194 pounds. He will never be a Derrick Henry-like high-volume rusher. But he has a well-rounded three-down skill set, and with his receiving ability he can still capture a high percentage of his team’s touches: Last year starting in Week 3, Gaskin was No. 7 among all backs with a 33% share of his team’s opportunities (carries plus targets).
The Dolphins are likely to have an improved offense this year, and Gaskin’s competition on the depth chart (Malcolm Brown, Salvon Ahmed, Patrick Laird) is uninspiring. He should be the lead back once again, and if his 2021 usage looks anything like that of 2020 then he will be a fantasy RB1.”
In a recent FFPC Pros vs. Joes slow draft, I was very happy to get Gaskin as the RB26 near the end of Round 5.
In our ADP Results Tool, Gaskins is the RB25, where I think he presents great value.
Damien Harris, New England Patriots
Ace beat reporter Mike Reiss of ESPN views Damien Harris as the “surefire No. 1 option” in the Patriots backfield, so he has significant upside.
Last year, Harris was No. 6 with a 14% gash rate among all running backs with 100-plus carries (per our Advanced Rushing Stats Tool). Entering his third year, Harris has underappreciated talent as a rusher, and he’s also capable as a receiver: In college, he was 22-204-0 receiving as a senior.
Plus, we ought not forget about his all-important longstanding Alabama connection with rookie first-round quarterback Mac Jones.
I’m joking (probably), but the addition of Jones to the Patriots is worth considering. Last year, Harris had 10-plus carries in all but one of his 10 active games, and he played well with 5.0 yards per carry and 7.4 yards per target – but he had just three carries inside the five-yard line and only seven targets.
But that was in a coronavirus-impacted season with quarterback Cam Newton, who hogged all the goal-line carries for himself and rarely checked the ball down to running backs.
Jones isn’t guaranteed to win the starting job at any point this year – but if he does then Harris will likely see more high-value carries and targets in 2021, and if the Pats offense improves even a little bit, then Harris could find himself with a 1,200-yard, 12-touchdown campaign as the top back in a run-heavy offense propelled by perhaps the league’s best run-blocking offensive line, which produced an NFL-high 2.13 yards before contact on non-quarterback runs last year.
In my personal drafts, Harris is one of the players to whom I have relatively high exposure.
Michael Carter, New York Jets
Michael Carter is one of the rookies I’m betting on for 2021. Literally. I’ve bet the over on his rushing prop of 575.5 yards at BetMGM.
To see the other bets I’ve made for the upcoming NFL season — including a side or total for every Week 1 game — check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
Carter is one of Derek Brown’s favorite breakout running backs for this season.
Under OC Mike LaFleur, the Jets are likely to utilize a Shanahan-style zone-blocking run scheme, and that should suit Carter well, who has a three-down skill set and little competition on the depth chart.
In his final year at North Carolina, Carter put up 1,512 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage with an average of 8.0 yards per carry and 10.7 yards per reception.
Even as a rookie, Carter could drastically outperform his ADP with a top-15 season.
Breakout wide receivers
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
Here’s what I wrote about Moore in my 2021 fantasy football rankings article:
“Think of all the great receivers in the league. We are in a golden era of wide receiver play. Out of all those elite players, only one has managed to go over 1,200 scrimmage yards in each of the past two seasons — and that’s D.J. Moore. And he’s done it while catching passes from Teddy Bridgewater, Phillip Walker, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, and Cam Newton. He’s entering his prime at just 24 years old, and he could have more targets and advantageous usage coming his way this year now that Curtis Samuel is gone. His upside is massive.”
My longtime best friend Calvin Ridley might disagree with me …
… but I think Moore is a top-tier receiver. As Adam Pfeifer has noted in his stellar ADP Decisions series, Moore has a developmental curve that gives him top-10 fantasy upside this year.
I think this is the season that Moore breaks into the upper echelon of fantasy receivers.
Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers
Robby Anderson broke out last year, but I think he does it again this year but catapulting himself into the top tiers of the receiver ranks.
One of my 10 bold predictions for 2021 is that Anderson will be a top-12 fantasy receiver.
He was No. 5 last year with 101 first-read targets (per our Advanced Receiving Stats Tool), and Matt Jones likes Anderson’s ceiling scenario.
Last year, Anderson was No. 12 at the position with 13.7 expected receiving PPR points per game (per RotoViz), and he could progress more with another year in offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s system.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
I’ve bet the over on DeVonta Smith’s receiving prop of 749.5 yards at BetMGM.
And I’m not the only one who likes Smith: Jeff Ratcliffe is also betting the over on Smith’s receiving yardage prop, which we expect him to crush. Right now, we have Smith slated for 953 yards receiving in our official 2021 FTN fantasy projections. That’s outstanding value.
The 2020 Heisman Trophy winner was selected No. 10 overall in the draft, he should have some residual #ShowerNarrative chemistry with quarterback Jalen Hurts from their time together at Alabama, and the Eagles have an unimpressive collection of receiving talent behind him.
Even though Smith is a rookie, he could see upward of 120 targets this year. As Derek Brown mentions in his Eagles coaching and coordinator breakdown, Smith’s “ultimate ceiling outcome in this offensive system is the Eagles’ version of Keenan Allen.” That’s pretty good.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
I don’t want to overstate Amon-Ra St. Brown’s potential, but the last receiver selected on Day 3 of the draft with St. Brown’s combination of five-star pedigree, first-year college production, and immediate opportunity was Stefon Diggs in 2015, when he was the No. 1 receiver for the Vikings despite playing just 13 games.
As Brett Whitefield mentioned in St. Brown’s pre-draft prospect profile, he is a versatile receiver who can line up all across the formation and run efficient routes at all levels of the field. He’s especially good in the slot, where he’s likely to line up most this year with veterans Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams on the perimeter, and in the middle of the field he could become a Cooper Kupp-like go-to option for short-throwing quarterback Jared Goff.
In Nelson Sousa’s bold predictions for 2021, he is extraordinarily bullish on St. Brown relative to the other rookie receivers this year. It would not be a surprise if he easily led the Lions in receiving.
Breakout tight ends
Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints
One of my favorite new podcasts is the Primetime Fantasy Football show.
In their most recent episode, Nelson Sousa and Matthew Davis look at the tight end market, and Sousa specifically identifies Adam Trautman as a player he likes:
One of Sousa’s late-round fantasy football draft targets, Trautman is poised to take a big step forward this year. Tight end Jared Cook is gone, so Trautman is expected to earn all the starting snaps in 2021, and wide receiver Michael Thomas (ankle) has been placed on the PUP list and could miss a significant chunk of the season. On top of that, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders left the Saints in free agency.
A massive target void exists in New Orleans, and if Trautman progresses as a second-year pro, he could easily earn 120-plus targets for the receiver-deficient Saints.
Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans
Although Anthony Firkser has scored just three touchdowns over the past three years, he has been an explosive contributor for the Titans with 8.4 yards per target, and last year he split time with teammate Jonnu Smith, amassing 53 targets as a part-time contributor.
Now Smith and slot receiver Adam Humphries are gone, so Firkser could see a significant boost in targets, especially inside the red zone line, where Smith last year had 18 targets and one carry, which he leveraged into nine touchdowns.
With the enhanced potential for targets and especially touchdowns, Firkser is a low-cost, high-ceiling option.
To Derek Brown …
