Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
About a week ago, my content overlord Josh Collacchi asked me to write a “same faces, new places” piece. Full disclosure:
- It took me three tries to spell “Collacchi” right. At least I think that’s how it’s spelled.
- I have no idea what a “same faces, new places” piece actually is.
Anyway, I could list every NFL skill position player who has changed teams this offseason and provide notes on all of them — but that feels laborious, and I’m nothing if not lazily efficient.
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So here are my position-by-position thoughts on the “same faces, new places” guys going in the top 10 rounds of 12-team fantasy football drafts right now, as well as some brief notes on the late-round guys who catch my eye (per our ADP Report Tool).
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
In our 2021 FTN player projections, Matthew Stafford is No. 3 with 4,785 yards passing: He’s one of my longshot bets to lead the league in passing this year (+1400 at FanDuel).
To see the other bets I’ve made for the upcoming NFL season, check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
Here’s what I wrote about Stafford in my longshots piece:
“He probably is in the best overall situation of his career. He has a well-rounded wide receiver unit with Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and DeSean Jackson. He has two potential-laden tight ends in Tyler Higbee and Jacob Harris. He has an innovative playcalling head coach in Sean McVay.
And without No. 1 running back Cam Akers out (Achilles), the Rams might heavily lean on the passing game.
Eliot Crist is betting the over on Stafford’s passing prop of 4,350.5 yards, and I lean that way as well. Stafford has already surpassed the 5,000-yard mark once in his career, and in his new environment it’s not hard to imagine him doing it again.”
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts
Carson Wentz (foot) is recovering from surgery and seems highly unlikely to play in the season opener — but even if he were healthy, I don’t think it would matter.
Weeks ago, I bet on the Seahawks at +2.5 on the road against the Colts in Week 1. Now, the Seahawks are favored by as much as -3.5 at BetMGM (per our NFL Odds page).
Here’s what I said about Wentz in my Week 1 betting piece:
“Wentz will be starting in his first game with the Colts, and even though he’s reuniting with head coach Frank Reich (his former coordinator with the Eagles) the transition from Philadelphia to Indianapolis is not guaranteed to go smoothly.
And Wentz is something of a poisonous proposition as an investment. In the post-injury/hype era of the past three years, opponents were 26-14 against the spread (ATS) vs. Wentz and his Eagles.”
Given his performance last year as well as his injury situation, I’m comfortably fading Wentz.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington Football Team
I’m very happy to roster Ryan Fitzpatrick in all formats, especially when I can stack him with any of wide receivers Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, tight end Logan Thomas, and running backs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic.
As the Red Hot Chili Peppers put it 30 years ago …
“Blood sugar crazy, she has it
Sex magik, Fitzmagic”
Fitzpatrick isn’t young, but over the past three years he is No. 9 with 7.87 adjusted yards per attempt (among all quarterbacks with 100 passes). He can still sling it.
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Here’s what Derek Brown has to say about Fitzpatrick in his Football Team coaching and coordinator breakdown (excerpted):
“The Beard Magic Maestro” has tangible upside in this offense. Last year in Weeks 1-6, he was the QB12 in fantasy points per game with a less-than-stellar cast surrounding him in Miami and an antiquated system by Chan Gailey. In Scott Turner’s scheme, he is due for multiple spike weeks, and if he’s able to minimize turnovers and hold the job for the entire season he could be a fantastic late-round value.”
Check out the entirety of Derek’s coaching and coordinator series.
Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
Sam Darnold is probably not good at football …
… but we shouldn’t be so sure that’s the case.
Darnold is one of my favorite upside quarterbacks for 2021. Either the industry is too high on wide receivers D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson and running back Christian McCaffrey, or it’s too low on Darnold.
With HC Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Darnold finally has mentors with the ability to help him become a true professional.
One of Nelson Sousa’s bold predictions for 2021 is that Darnold will be a top-12 fantasy quarterback.
To get all of Sousa’s analysis, check out his high-stakes fantasy package, which comes with coaching sessions and Sousa’s rankings.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Among all quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts, Alex Smith last year was dead last in the league with a 4.82-yard average depth of target (aDOT, per our Advanced Passing Stats).
Who had the second-to-last aDOT? Jared Goff, naturally. He’s Smith — but without Smith’s pre-injury rushing ability.
Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos
We don’t know yet who will start for the Broncos in Week 1. I’ve bet on Drew Lock to lead the league in passing because some men just want to watch the world burn.
But if Teddy Bridgewater does win the starting job, sports bettors should take note: For his career, Bridgewater is 35-14 ATS overall and 24-7 ATS as an underdog.
With the Broncos defense and his risk-averse playing style, Bridgewater could be a cover machine for the bettors in 2021.
From a fantasy perspective, however, he offers little upside.
Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans
As a starting quarterback, Tyrod Taylor is 27-18-3 ATS and has been a profitable player to back in every year of his career but one.
From a fantasy perspective, he has an underappreciated and elevated floor because of his Konami Code rushing ability.
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At DraftKings, the Texans have a league-low win total of 4 , and Taylor is at risk of being benched in the middle of the season for rookie Davis Mills — assuming of course that quarterback Deshaun Watson does not play for the Texans this year — but as a late-round option in two-quarterback and best ball leagues, Taylor is a player I actually like.
Andy Dalton, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears deleted that “Andy Dalton QB1” tweet, right?
Running Backs
Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons
I once heard a high-stakes fantasy player say as a general rule that he won’t draft a running back in the first six rounds or so if he randomly came from nowhere the season before.
That description fits 28-year-old journeyman Mike Davis, who amassed 1,015 yards and eight touchdowns from scrimmage as an injury fill-in for Christian McCaffrey.
Davis is slated to be the Falcons lead back — but Davis simply might not be good enough to keep the job: For his career, he has averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and 5.1 yards per target.
Davis has upside but also downside.
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Now that I think about it, Nelson Sousa might have been the high-stakes player who said he avoids expensive out-of-nowhere running backs. That would make sense: Davis is one of the players on Sousa’s 2021 fades list.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
In 2018, James Conner had a league-winning campaign with 1,470 yards and 13 touchdowns. On an unrelated note, I also had more hair three years ago.
Kenyon Drake, Las Vegas Raiders
The most Jon Gruden thing a human could do is pay a supercharged change-of-pace running back $11 million guaranteed over two years — essentially lead-back money — and then use him as an annoying supplementary back.
As it happens, Gruden is the head coach of the Raiders.
Damien Williams, Chicago Bears
HC Matt Nagy and Damien Williams are both veterans of the Chiefs system from their time in Kansas City (Nagy, 2013-17; Williams, 2018-19), so Williams should be able to catch on to Nagy’s playbook quickly.
From his intermittent stint as a lead back in Kansas City, we know that Williams has league-winning upside. In his 16 Chiefs games with a snap share of at least 50%, Williams put up 95.9 yards and 1.3 touchdowns on 13.3 carries and 5.3 targets per game.
The Bears offense won’t afford Williams as many touchdown-scoring opportunities as the Chiefs offense did, but if starter David Montgomery suffers an injury, then Williams could become a Zero RB hero.
Williams is one of Nelson Sousa’s late-round fantasy draft targets.
Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions
Jamaal Williams is no longer with the Packers, but kneecap-biting HC Dan Campbell has indicated that Williams will continue to serve as an annoying timeshare back now with the Lions.
In his four years with the Packers, WillIams averaged 736.5 yards and 4.5 touchdowns from scrimmage on 125 carries and 30.5 targets in 15 games per season.
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He’ll probably have similar numbers in his first year in Detroit, much to the chagrin of D’Andre Swift investors.
Phillip Lindsay, Houston Texans
It’s hard to know what to expect from Phillip Lindsay in particular and the Texans in general, but here’s something I do know: Lindsay (27 years old) is significantly younger than David Johnson (30 in December), Mark Ingram (32 in December) and Rex Burkhead (31).
Lindsay is just entering his fourth year, and he opened his career with back-to-back 1,200-yard campaigns.
He has a non-zero chance of being a fantasy asset.
Carlos Hyde, Jacksonville Jaguars
I expect that Carlos Hyde’s second stint with the Jaguars will be more productive than the first one was (58-189-0 rushing, 4-4-0 receiving in 8 games in 2018) — but only slightly more productive.
Unless HC Urban Meyer has a time machine, he’s unlikely to turn Hyde into the bulldozing rusher he coached at Ohio State in 2012-13.
Tevin Coleman, New York Jets
If you’re offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, and if you’re looking for someone to play the “Tevin Coleman role” (whatever that is) in your 49ers-inspired zone-based scheme … why not sign Coleman himself?
Rookie Michael Carter is one of my favorite upside running backs for 2021. He’s also one of Derek Brown’s favorite breakout running backs for this season.
But Coleman — unless/until he suffers an injury — will likely be a constant, upside-capping presence in the Jets backfield throughout Carter’s rookie campaign.
Giovani Bernard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Giovani Bernard is a reliably professional pass-catching back with 6.3 yards per target for his career, and now he is paired up with take-what-the-defense-gives-me quarterback Tom Brady.
Bernard is unlikely to win many fantasy weeks for investors, but he will offer them an elevated weekly floor at a discount.
Wide Receivers
Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans
Julio Jones is one of my favorite upside wide receivers for 2021. Here’s what I wrote about him in my upside receiver piece:
“I’m high on Jones across the board: For instance, in my 2021 NFL dynasty rankings, I still have Jones ranked in the top 24 at the position. Of all active wide receivers with multiple seasons and 100-plus targets over the past five years, Jones is No. 2 with 10.0 yards per target (including postseason). The guy can still ball.
Even last year in an injury-plagued season, Jones had a career-high 11.3 yards per target overall with 700 yards exactly in his seven games with a snap rate of at least 70%.
Jones might be slowing down with age, but he’s not slow yet.
Although the Titans have historically had a run-focused offense, Jones is unlikely to want for targets, as the Titans lack an established No. 3 wide receiver and pass-catching running back and tight end.
Eliot Crist likes the over on Jones’ touchdown prop of 5.5 (available at PointsBet), and I’m middling his receiving yardage props of 999.5 and 1,099.5 (at FOX Bet and BetMGM).”
Until Jones retires, I will want him on my fantasy teams.
Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
In my first piece for FTN — my 10 bold calls for 2021 — I predicted that Kenny Golladay would not finish the season as a top-36 fantasy wide receiver.
Here’s what I wrote:
“I have all the respect in the world for Kenny Golladay — but let me tell you some people I have no respect for: Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and quarterback Daniel Jones. (Sorry, Stephie.) Last year, the Giants passed for a league-low 12 touchdowns. On the one hand, they should experience positive regression this year. There’s no way they can be that bad again, right? On the other hand, even if the passing offense improves it still won’t be good: It will be mediocre at best.
Last year, the Giants allowed the second-highest pressure rate in the league with a mark of 40.3% (per our Offensive Line Stats Tool) and in the 2021 draft the Giants added zero offensive linemen. They will likely struggle to sustain drives, and Jones is unlikely to have the necessary time in the pocket to throw deep, where Golladay has thrived across his career.
Finally, Golladay has underappreciated competition for targets in wide receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, tight end Evan Engram and running back Saquon Barkley. Not once in his career has Golladay had 120 targets, and he might fail to hit that mark again in 2021.”
And I wrote that before his hamstring injury — and soft-tissue injuries have a way of lingering into the regular season.
I’m all the way out on Golladay this year.
Will Fuller, Miami Dolphins
I’ve been a Will Fuller stan for half a decade: I’m not stopping now. Here’s what I wrote about him in my upside receivers piece:
“Will Fuller is a frustrating player to roster. Only once in his five-year career has he managed more than 14 games — and that was back in 2016, his rookie season. And he’ll miss Week 1 due to a PED suspension.
But in his 10 games last year with a snap rate of at least 70% he was 53-879-8 on 75 targets with either 80 yards or a touchdown in every game but one. Fuller’s playmaking ability is undeniable.
Fuller has a good chance to be the No. 1 receiver for potential-laden second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and if he can somehow stay healthy for even just 14 games this year, he could annihilate his ADP with a 1,200-yard season.”
I’m going out of my way to get Fuller, and I don’t even care if that’s unwise.
Curtis Samuel, Washington Football Team
Curtis Samuel put up his first 1,000-yard season last year, and now he is reunited with offensive coordinator Scott Turner and has the best passing quarterback of his career in Ryan Fitzpatrick.
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I’m not going out of my way to acquire Samuel, but I’m happy to draft him at cost.
A.J. Green, Arizona Cardinals
The recent training camp reports on A.J. Green are glowing — but I don’t care. I have bet the under on Green’s receiving prop of 545.5 yards. Here’s my rationale:
“Green might not even be a top-three wide receiver for the Cardinals in 2021. Last year, despite ranking No. 11 in the league with 24 targets of 20-plus yards, Green finished with just 523 yards receiving. His 5.0 yards per target on 104 targets in 16 games was downright 2016 Tavon Austin-esque.
In 2020, Green looked slow and brittle — and he turns 33 years old before the season starts.
This line feels about 100 yards too high.”
I haven’t drafted Green once this year.
Sammy Watkins, Baltimore Ravens
I would never draft Sammy Watkins in a managed league, but in best ball … ugh, I guess. He’s a big-play receiver who is still just 28 years old.
But let’s be honest: Watkins is a best ball option in theory. In actuality, I don’t really want him.
Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills
Emmanuel Sanders is already 34 years old, but he was 61-726-5 receiving on 82 targets in 14 games last year.
Gabriel Davis is the upside supplementary receiver in Buffalo, but reports are that Sanders is playing as the No. 2 option in the offense, and if he maintains that role throughout the season then he could easily replicate last year’s production.
Breshad Perriman, Detroit Lions
No.
Tyrell Williams, Detroit Lions
Again, no.
Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
If you’re looking for fewer than 800 yards on more than 80 targets, Randall Cobb is your slot man.
Anthony Miller, Houston Texans
Anthony Miller is this year to Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills what Randall Cobb was last year to Deshaun Watson. In other words, almost nothing.
Marvin Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
Marvin Jones is the only Jaguars wide receiver familiar with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell’s system, and just last year led the Lions — with Bevell calling plays — with 76-978-9 receiving on 115 targets.
Jones has a very real chance to lead the Jags in receiving this year and is a nice arbitrage play on D.J. Chark and Laviska Shenault.
John Brown, Las Vegas Raiders
One of my bold calls for this season is that John Brown will be a top-36 fantasy receiver. Here’s what I wrote about him in my bold predictions piece:
“Last year, in his lone season with the Raiders, Nelson Agholor had a career-best campaign with 48-896-8 receiving. If Agholor could do that in 2020, what’s to keep Brown from being similarly productive in 2021?
Wide receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards are upside players who could both break out in their second NFL seasons — but they are raw and unproven, whereas Brown is a veteran with two 1,000-yard seasons for his career and 9.1 yards per target over the past two years.
As Agholor proved to be last year, Brown is versatile enough to line up at all three receiver spots, and he should inherit Agholor’s role, which could afford him significant target volume even after tight end Darren Waller has taken his share of the market.
With an average draft position that puts Brown outside of the top 60 at his position, I’m very willing to bet on his WR3 upside at cost.”
I am overweight on Brown.
DeSean Jackson, Los Angeles Rams
DeSean Jackson has been injured for much of the past two years: Pessimism is warranted. But in his three games since 2019 with a snap rate of at least 50%, Jackson is 16-264-2 receiving on 25 targets. The sample is small, but Jackson’s upside is undeniable.
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With quarterback Matthew Stafford, Jackson will have week-winning peak performances if he stays healthy for more than a handful of games.
Nelson Agholor, New England Patriots
If you want to invest in a longtime underachiever in his first season with a new team coming off a contract-year career-best 48-896-8 campaign with unsustainable efficiency (10.9 yards per target), that’s your prerogative.
To me, Nelson Agholor is an easy fade.
Corey Davis, New York Jets
Copy and paste: If you want to invest in a longtime underachiever in his first season with a new team coming off a contract-year career-best 65-984-5 campaign with unsustainable efficiency (10.7 yards per target), that’s your prerogative.
To me, Corey Davis is an easy fade.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
I’m not enthralled with Hunter Henry. He won the Mackey Award his final year of college — and, as they say in Arkansas (probably), that ain’t nothin’ — but Henry’s situation in New England is meh-tacular.
Here’s what Derek Brown has to say about Henry and new teammate Jonnu Smith in his Patriots coaching and coordinator breakdown:
“These two will likely be better real-life NFL options than fantasy ones. The two tight-end usage will likely shade to one of these players seeing the field more often than the other. Still, their target shares will be unpredictable week to week as this team is fond of praying upon the weaknesses of other teams overfeeding a designated player weekly.”
Nelson Sousa likes Henry — and I know better than to doubt Sousa — but I find myself less than willing to take Henry at his current draft position. I might regret that later.
Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots
While I’m pessimistic about Henry, I’m ragingly optimistic about Jonnu Smith: He’s one of my favorite upside tight ends for 2021.
Here’s what I wrote about him in my upside tight ends piece:
“Smith is often a frustrating player to roster. His talent is apparent: Among all tight ends with 50 targets per year over the past three seasons, Smith is No. 8 with 8.0 yards per target, and over that time he’s No. 5 at the position with 15 touchdowns. He’s an explosive playmaker.
But to this point in his career, he is yet to earn usage commensurate with his talent, and he now enters an uncertain situation in his first year with the Patriots. Last year, quarterback Cam Newton almost never targeted his tight ends, the pass-catching unit in New England has been completely overhauled, Smith might play behind Henry, and we don’t know whether Newton or rookie Mac Jones will open the year at quarterback.
Hilariously, Derek Brown highlighted New England as one of the worst fantasy landing spots for Smith before free agency — and of course that’s where he signed — but I’m still intrigued.
Uncertainty creates possibility, and regardless of whoever plays at quarterback for the Pats, Smith might emerge as the No. 1 receiver in the offense, because in comparison to Henry and wide receivers Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers, he truly might be the best all-around and most efficient player on a per-route basis.
No one has any real idea how the Patriots will distribute targets this year or how voluminous the passing game will be. If Smith finds himself with 100-plus targets, he could be a 1,000-yard, 10-touchdown monster.”
Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks
In four years with the Rams, Gerald Everett never had more than 417 yards and three touchdowns receiving in a season — but I can feel that fifth-year breakout coming!
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I’m joking (sort of), but Everett is a strong athlete (4.62-second 40-yard dash at 239 pounds), and he should have a career year: He no longer needs to compete with tight end Tyler Higbee for snaps and targets, the Seahawks don’t have a strong receiving option behind wide receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and Everett gets to reunite with new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, who was the Rams tight ends coach in 2017 and then passing game coordinator in 2018-20.
I’m happy to take Everett at cost.
Jared Cook, Los Angeles Chargers
I won’t deny it: I’m high on Jared Cook this year. As I highlight in my piece on my 2021 fantasy football PPR rankings, Cook is my TE11:
“Over the past four years, Cook has averaged 698.2 yards and six touchdowns receiving in 15.3 games per season. That’s not elite, but that easily makes him a TE1, and there’s little reason to think he can’t approximate those numbers again. He’s on the older side at 34, but for a tight end that age is not ancient, and he’s partnered with an ascending quarterback in Justin Herbert and a familiar playcaller in offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. At his low ADP of TE25, Cook offers massive value.”
In his piece on tight ends with boom-ability, Tyler Loechner notes that Cook tied Travis Kelce and trailed only Robert Tonyan and Mark Andrews last year with his two touchdowns of 20-plus yards.
In Lombardi’s offense, Cook has averaged 9.7 yards per attempt over the past two years: The veteran is still athletic enough to be a playmaker.
Dan Arnold, Carolina Panthers
Dan Arnold should step into the No. 1 tight end role right away for the Panthers given how poorly incumbent starter Ian Thomas has played over the past two years (4.6 yards per target).
We don’t know how the offense will look with Sam Darnold at quarterback, but, my friend, if you are yet to draft the Darnold-D. Arnold stack, you haven’t lived.
