Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
With this quarterback piece, I conclude my series on upside players I’m targeting in 2021 fantasy football drafts.
Here are the first three pieces in the series.
As I mention in my recent article on my 2021 fantasy football rankings, I place a premium on upside:
“When I play fantasy, I don’t want just to make the playoffs. I want to win the league. And that requires capturing some ceiling performances from a few players. If you want to win in fantasy, you don’t hunt for bargains: You hunt for dragons.”
Here are five quarterbacks I’m happy to draft, given the mythological upside they have at their current cost (per our FTN ADP tool).
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (QB6)
One of my 10 bold calls for 2021 is that Russell Wilson will be the No. 1 fantasy quarterback.
If that happens, that will of course be a ceiling outcome. He median projection is more modest, which is why I’m middling his passing prop (under 4,300.5 yards at BetMGM, over 4,020.5 at FOX Bet).
To see the other bets I’ve made for the upcoming NFL season — including a side or total for every Week 1 game — check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
But even though I’m middling Wilson’s passing total, that doesn’t mean I’m not bullish on his upside. As I noted in July on the Fade the Chalk podcast, 2021 may be the year that Wilson stays in the kitchen and cooks for the entire campaign.
Here’s what I had to say about Wilson in my bold calls piece:
“Wide receiver DK Metcalf should enter his full studness this season as a third-year professional. With Metcalf’s ability to make plays, Wilson will have an incredibly high week-to-week ceiling.
And I expect the Seahawks to lean on the passing attack. This offseason, they replaced run-focused offensive playcaller Brian Schottenheimer with Shane Waldron, who coordinated the Rams passing game the past few years. Additionally, this offseason they gave wide receiver Tyler Lockett a four-year, $69.2 million contract extension with $37 million guaranteed and added dynamic tight end Gerald Everett via free agency.
On top of that, the Seahawks selected wide receiver D’Wayne Eskridge in Round 2 with their first pick of the 2021 draft, even though they already had Metcalf, Lockett and Everett.
Given the recent investments the Seahawks have made in the passing game, they might finally be willing to go all-in on Wilson as a high-volume passer.
Last year, he was No. 1 in the league with 59 end-zone targets and No. 6 with 948 yards passing on attempts of 20-plus yards. If Wilson throws the ball even a little more in 2021, he could annihilate expectations, especially because he has a reasonable rushing floor.
While Wilson isn’t one of Eliot Crist’s top Konami Code candidates for 2021, he has been a consistent rushing threat for years, and last season he was No. 2 at the position with a 48.7% explosive run yardage share (per our Explosive Run Rate Tool).”
If you’re a late-round quarterback purist and prefer not to address the position until later in drafts, that’s totally fine. I tend not to select quarterbacks early.
But if you don’t mind taking a quarterback early, then Wilson is a strong candidate, given that he provides an ideal blend of value and upside as the last top-tier quarterback available.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (QB10)
Jalen Hurts has notable downside. Of any quarterback with 100-plus pass attempts last year, Hurts was dead last with a 65.6% adjusted completion rate (per our Advanced Passing Stats Tool). He has an unproven wide receiver unit, and the Eagles have been linked to quarterback Deshaun Watson in the trade market.
But he also has clear upside. In his four starts last year he was 919-5-3 passing (albeit with a 51.9% completion rate) and 46-272-3 rushing. The sample is small, but with a new coaching staff, a full offseason to work as the starter, and an improved pass-catching arsenal, Hurts has an outside chance of becoming the first quarterback in NFL history with 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing.
It’s easy to be skeptical about Hurts, but entering his second season he bears a lot of similarities to 2019 Lamar Jackson — and we all know how well he played. I have an MVP ticket on Hurts at +10000 at DraftKings, and I’m very pleased to have gotten him at that number.
Kyle Murray likes over 20.5 passing touchdowns for Hurts. Yeah, baby.
Derek Brown has a great section on Hurts in his Eagles coaching and coordinator breakdown:
“Unless you’re projecting a Jalen Hurts injury or for him to be benched, it’s impossible to rank him outside of the top 12 quarterbacks in fantasy football. Hurts is dripping with top-five upside at the position if not higher in 2021. Last year in his three full games as the starter, as a rookie, he was the QB4 in fantasy points per game inside a broken offensive system that wasn’t tailored to his strengths. I dove deep into Jalen Hurts’ history as a passer earlier this offseason and what it meant for this season. In a scheme that will better suit his strengths on top of his equity as a rusher, the sky is the limit. The only person who can hold Hurts back is Hurts.”
Do yourself a favor and check out the entirety of Derek’s NFL coaching and coordinator series.
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers (QB24)
We don’t know yet if Trey Lance will be the Week 1 starter for the 49ers, but quarterbacks selected as high as Lance was (No. 3 overall) tend to see significant playing time as rookies, and I want to be invested in Lance.
In my updated dynasty fantasy football rankings, I have Lance as the QB7 — right ahead of Trevor Lawrence.
Why am I so bullish on Lance? With his Konami Code rushing ability (1,159 yards rushing in 16 games as a redshirt freshman), Lance has a high floor, and in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system he should have a high ceiling as a passer, given the fantastic yards-after-catch players around him, namely wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle and running back Raheem Mostert.
As a borderline fantasy QB2/3, Lance is basically a freeroll with 2020 Jalen Hurts-esque late-season league-winning upside. He is one of high-stakes dominator Nelson Sousa’s late-round draft targets.
Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers (QB27)
Either the industry is too high on wide receivers D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson and running back Christian McCaffrey, or it’s too low on quarterback Sam Darnold.
In head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Darnold finally has mentors with the ability to help him become a true professional …
… and he has the pass-catching playmakers around him to elevate his game.
One of Nelson Sousa’s bold predictions for 2021 is that Darnold will be a top-12 fantasy quarterback.
I highly recommend Sousa’s high-stakes fantasy package, which comes with coaching sessions and his rankings.
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints (QB32)
When franchise quarterback Drew Brees missed four games last year, it was Taysom Hill — not Jameis Winston — who started in his place.
With Hill as the No. 1 quarterback, the Saints went 3-1, and Hill was 834-4-2 passing with a 71.9% completion rate and 39-209-4 rushing.
Without wide receiver Michael Thomas, the Saints might be tempted to utilize more of a ground-based ball-control offense, which Hill could facilitate better than Winston,
This year, Hill will make $12.16 million; Winston, $5.5 million.
Last year we saw the league-winning upside that Hill has — and there’s very much a non-zero chance that he will be the Week 1 starter. Derek Brown thinks that Hill will beat out Winston for the starting job — and even if that doesn’t happen it doesn’t really matter since Hill is basically free in drafts.
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