Fantasy football draft strategy – How to approach the No. 1 overall pick

Revealing your draft order in your fantasy football leagues can be one of the most nerve-wracking processes of the season. Getting the number one pick, however, is arguably the second-most rewarding feeling behind actually winning your league.

While there is typically a consensus No. 1 option, the overall strategy from the No. 1 draft spot can also be a tough one, as you have 23 picks between your two consecutive picks every other round. 

(Take advantage of the FTNFantasy Platinum package for the 2021 season!)

Christian McCaffrey is still the consensus top pick

Christian McCaffrey’s current consensus ADP of 1.12 (essentially universally the first pick) proves that he’s as close to the sure thing as you can get with the No. 1 overall pick despite missing 13 games in 2020.

In his last full season (2019), McCaffrey logged more touches (403) than any player since Le’Veon Bell in 2017 (406) and more PPR points (471.2) than anyone at any position since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. His 29.5 PPR points per game in 2019 is also 4.1 points higher than any player in 2020 (quarterbacks included) and 4.3 points higher than 2020’s RB1, Alvin Kamara.

While expecting him to return to that same form is a risky endeavor, it’s worth remembering that McCaffrey is still in his prime. He’s not a running back approaching the 30-year-old age threshold; he’s a three-down back who just turned 25 this summer. Now with even more weapons around him and a new quarterback, it’s nearly impossible to find a player that offers a higher floor and ceiling combination than McCaffrey. 

Can Dalvin Cook be the No. 1 pick?

If you want to take the angle that McCaffrey won’t only fail to live up to his expectations from 2019, but ultimately get hampered by his injury history and have other running backs pass him, then Dalvin Cook makes the most sense at No. 1, especially because he’s finished No. 2 in back-to-back seasons.

Cook has an extensive injury as well, so if you’re using this rationale to fade McCaffrey, it may be worth considering for Cook as well, though this narrative feels a bit overblown.

Cook has posted back-to-back seasons having played 14 games in each, while rushing for at least 1,100 yards (over 1,500 last season), with 29 total rushing touchdowns over that two-year span. What’s been even more encouraging for Cook is his involvement in the passing game. He’s recorded at least 50 targets in back-to-back seasons, hauling in 97 catches for over 800 yards over the last two seasons.

Because of the question marks in the Saints offense around Alvin Kamara and the lack of pass-catching upside that Derrick Henry presents, Cook feels like the only individual with the ability to rival McCaffrey’s floor and ceiling combination, making him the 1.01 if you are hellbent on fading McCaffrey (something I am not doing from the 1.01).

A hero-RB build can win your league

What is a hero-RB build? While zero-RB has been all the rage, hero-RB builds refer to drafts where you take a first-round running back to anchor the position on your roster, but then wait to draft your RB2 until late in the draft.

Based on current consensus ADPs, this is the build that I lean toward most when drafting from the 1.01. Below is a grouping of players (per consensus ADP) that are most often available at the second-/third-round turn (picks 24 and 25 in a 12-team league):

As you can see above, three of the eight players who sandwich picks 24 and 25 are running backs. Of the three, Antonio Gibson’s ADP had risen 2.21 spots from June to July and another 0.87 spots from July to August. If his ADP continues to trend in this direction, there’s a good chance that he’s gone before these picks. 

The rest of the list is made up of pass-catchers and a quarterback. While some may disagree, taking a quarterback this early in a draft feels extremely irresponsible, especially considering the fact that the argument could be made that five different quarterbacks could finish as the overall QB1. If that’s the case, why would you pay the two-round premium for Mahomes when the rest are being drafted in the fourth and fifth rounds?

Going hero-RB here, the strongest route to take here to secure both a high floor and high ceiling at the receiver spot is by stacking two of Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown and Keenan Allen. All three come with double-digit touchdown upside as well as a strong likelihood to surpass 1,000 receiving yards as their baseline.

You can look to add to your pass-catchers at the fourth-/fifth-round turn at picks 48 and 49 as well, where you can also secure a second running back. Below is a list of players most often available at that turn:

As you can see compared to the group of players available at the second/third-round turn, the number of high-ceiling receivers falls off of a cliff. This is a huge reason why going with the hero-RB build can be beneficial. Instead of looking at Julio Jones or D.J. Moore as your WR1 or WR2, they would be your WR3, arguably giving you the best WR group in your league.

Of the options on this list, Moore comes in as my ideal target, as he’s my favorite potential WR3 in 2021 drafts. 

Sure, he’s had his share of volatility, but with the upside, he presents with a quarterback willing to go downfield, especially as your WR3, it’s hard to argue with this construction. On the turn, taking a Konami Code quarterback like Lamar Jackson essentially gives you an RB2 in the quarterback spot. It’s pretty hard to argue with this construction through five rounds:

QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB:
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: D.J. Moore
TE:
DST: 
K:

(Take advantage of the FTNFantasy Platinum package for the 2021 season!)

A robust-RB build can win your league

On the flip side, there’s also an angle that can be taken where going heavy at the running back position early in your draft can pay off (the robust RB strategy).

As shown in the two takes above, there are still a number of high-end running backs with RB1 upside that can be drafted within the first four rounds. Instead of going with two wide receivers at the second-/third-round turn, you can turn one of those into a running back like Antonio Gibson, Najee Harris or Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

By doing this, you solidify your running back room with arguably two top-12 backs while also anchoring your wide receiver room with a bona fide WR1.

From there, you can opt to go WR-WR at the fourth-/fifth-round turn (say, Julio Jones and D.J. Moore), or even RB-WR to solidify a three-RB build, which could be particularly advantageous in standard-scoring leagues. Two examples are below:

RB-WR-RB-WR

QB: 
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB: Najee Harris
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: D.J. Moore
FLEX: Chris Carson
TE: 
DST: 
K: 

RB-WR-WR-WR

QB: 
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB: Najee Harris/Clyde Edwards-Helaire
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: D.J. Moore
WR: Julio Jones
FLEX: 
TE:
DST: 
K:

Both of these robust-RB strategies offer an opportunity to stock up on high-floor options with respectable ceilings. The approach as to whether to go two or three running backs, however, depends on the format. If in a standard league as mentioned above, I would lean three running backs. If it is 0.5 PPR or PPR scoring, I would lean the latter and go with three receivers through your first five selections.

(Take advantage of the FTNFantasy Platinum package for the 2021 season!)