Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
In the immortal words of Vince Lombardi: “Winning isn’t everything. Upside is everything.”
Or something like that.
As I mention in my recent article on my 2021 fantasy football rankings, I place a premium on upside:
“When I play fantasy, I don’t want just to make the playoffs. I want to win the league. And that requires capturing some ceiling performances from a few players. If you want to win in fantasy, you don’t hunt for bargains: You hunt for dragons.”
Jeff Ratcliffe just posted a great piece on his five fantasy football draft strategy tips, one of which is not locking yourself into any particular position early in your draft. In other words, give yourself options. I agree with that principle, and I’ve found that it’s much easier to be flexible early when you have a list of upside players at each position you’re comfortable with taking later.
I’ve already written about 10 upside running backs to draft in 2021. In this piece, I highlight 10 wide receivers I like given the upside they have relative to their average draft positions (per our FTN ADP tool).
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Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans (WR18)
I’m high on Julio Jones across the board: For instance, in my 2021 NFL dynasty rankings, I still have Jones ranked in the top 24 at the position. Of all active wide receivers with multiple seasons and 100-plus targets over the past five years, Jones is No. 2 with 10.0 yards per target (including postseason). The guy can still ball.
Even last year in an injury-plagued season, Jones had a career-high 11.3 yards per target overall with 700 yards exactly in his seven games with a snap rate of at least 70%.
Jones might be slowing down with age, but he’s not slow yet.
Although the Titans have historically had a run-focused offense, Jones is unlikely to want for targets, as the Titans lack an established No. 3 wide receiver and pass-catching running back and tight end.
Eliot Crist likes the over on Jones’ touchdown prop of 5.5 (available at PointsBet), and I’m middling his receiving yardage props of 999.5 and 1,099.5 (at FOX Bet and BetMGM).
To see the other bets I’ve made for the upcoming NFL season — including a side or total for every Week 1 game — check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers (WR19)
Here’s what I wrote about Moore in my PPR rankings article:
“Think of all the great receivers in the league. We are in a golden era of wide receiver play. Out of all those elite players, only one has managed to go over 1,200 scrimmage yards in each of the past two seasons — and that’s D.J. Moore. And he’s done it while catching passes from Teddy Bridgewater, Phillip Walker, Kyle Allen, Will Grier and Cam Newton. He’s entering his prime at just 24 years old, and he could have more targets and advantageous usage coming his way this year now that Curtis Samuel is gone. His upside is massive.”
My longtime best friend Calvin Ridley might disagree with me …
… but I think Moore is a top-tier receiver. As Adam Pfeifer has noted in his stellar ADP Decisions series, Moore has a developmental curve that gives him top-10 fantasy upside this year.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers (WR30)
In Ep. 3 of the Primetime Fantasy Football podcast, high-stakes dominators Nelson Sousa and Matthew Davis talk about some of the reasons they are bullish on JuJu Smith-Schuster in 2021.
Smith-Schuster is not yet 25 years old, he has a 1,439-yard season to his name, and for his career he has a respectable mark of 8.3 yards per target (including postseason). For reference: That’s the exact same average Davante Adams has had over the past half decade.
And in 17 games last year (again, including playoffs) Smith-Schuster had 110 receptions on 147 targets.
If in 2021 he enjoys similar usage and regresses toward career-average efficiency, Smith-Schuster could have a massive campaign.
If you check out our FTN Player Prop Shop, you’ll see that Smith-Schuster is +13000 to lead the league in receiving yardage at DraftKings. At that number, he offers significant value.
Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers (WR33)
One of my 10 bold predictions for 2021 is that Robby Anderson will be a top-12 fantasy receiver.
He was No. 5 last year with 101 first-read targets (per our Advanced Receiving Stats Tool), and Matt Jones likes Anderson’s ceiling scenario.
Last year, Anderson was No. 12 at the position with 13.7 expected receiving PPR points per game (per RotoViz), and he could progress more with another year in offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s system.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (WR36)
DeVonta Smith is one of the rookies I’m betting on for 2021. Literally. I’ve bet the over on his receiving prop of 749.5 yards at BetMGM.
And I’m not the only one who likes Smith: Jeff Ratcliffe is also betting the over on Smith’s receiving yardage prop, which we expect him to crush. Right now, we have Smith slated for 953 yards receiving in our official 2021 FTN fantasy projections. That’s outstanding value.
The 2020 Heisman Trophy winner was selected No. 10 overall in the draft, he should have some residual #ShowerNarrative chemistry with quarterback Jalen Hurts from their time together at Alabama, and the Eagles have an unimpressive collection of receiving talent behind him.
Even though Smith is a rookie, he could see upward of 120 targets this year. As Derek Brown mentions in his Eagles coaching and coordinator breakdown, Smith’s “ultimate ceiling outcome in this offensive system is the Eagles’ version of Keenan Allen.” That’s pretty good.
Do yourself a favor and check out the entirety of Derek’s NFL coaching and coordinator series.
Will Fuller, Miami Dolphins (WR38)
Will Fuller is a frustrating player to roster. Only once in his five-year career has he managed more than 14 games — and that was back in 2016, his rookie season. And he’ll miss Week 1 due to a PED suspension.
But in his 10 games last year with a snap rate of at least 70% he was 53-879-8 on 75 targets with either 80 yards or a touchdown in every game but one. Fuller’s playmaking ability is undeniable.
Fuller has a good chance to be the No. 1 receiver for potential-laden second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and if he can somehow stay healthy for even just 14 games this year, he could annihilate his ADP with a 1,200-yard season.
Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans (WR40)
Brandin Cooks isn’t sexy, but he’s a plus athlete with five 1,000-yard seasons over the past six years. With Will Fuller and Randall Cobb gone, Cooks is the unquestioned No. 1 receiver for the Texans, and in his four games without Fuller last year he amassed 41 targets, which he leveraged into 29-431-3 receiving.
The Texans are likely to perform poorly this year. At DraftKings, they have an NFL-low win total of 4 with the under juiced to -115.
Even so, Cooks should still see 120-plus targets, and with that kind of usage he is positioned to exceed expectations in dramatic fashion.
Plus, the closer we get to the season without a legal resolution to quarterback Deshaun Watson’s situation, the likelier it is that he will play games for the Texans this year — and right now the market is pricing Cooks as if he will be without Watson for the entire season.
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys (WR46)
I love Amari Cooper, but should he really be going so far ahead of Michael Gallup in drafts?
Nah, brah.
Cooper is the superior player, but not much separates the two perimeter receivers, and Cooper is currently on the PUP recovering from a minor ankle surgery. I expect him to be ready for Week 1, but there’s no guarantee he’ll enter the season at 100% health.
And even if Cooper is healthy for the entire year, the Cowboys offense is still dynamic enough to afford Gallup the opportunity to produce. Of all wide receivers last year with 100-plus targets, Gallup was No. 12 with an average depth of target of 11.9 yards. With that kind of usage, he could have some massive performances with Prescott back at quarterback.
Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (WR48)
Mike Williams has had 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns in separate seasons, so he has the ability to produce, and now he’s slated to play the “Michael Thomas X” role in new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi’s system.
Over the past three years, Williams has been one of the league’s most efficient receivers on a per-opportunity basis, ranking No. 12 with 9.9 yards per target among all players with 100-plus targets.
It’s not hard to see why Williams is one of Nelson Sousa’s mid-round targets. Also, I cannot recommend highly enough Sousa’s high-stakes fantasy package, which comes with coaching sessions and his rankings.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (WR75)
I don’t want to overstate Amon-Ra St. Brown’s potential, but the last receiver selected on Day 3 of the draft with St. Brown’s combination of five-star pedigree, first-year college production, and immediate opportunity was Stefon Diggs in 2015, when he was the No. 1 receiver for the Vikings despite playing just 13 games.
As Brett Whitefield mentioned in St. Brown’s pre-draft prospect profile, he is a versatile receiver who can line up all across the formation and run efficient routes at all levels of the field. He’s especially good in the slot, where he’s likely to line up most this year with veterans Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams on the perimeter, and in the middle of the field he could become a Cooper Kupp-like go-to option for short-throwing quarterback Jared Goff.
In Nelson Sousa’s bold predictions for 2021, he is extraordinarily bullish on St. Brown relative to the other rookie receivers this year. It would not be a surprise if he easily led the Lions in receiving.
