Freedman's Fades - Fantasy Football Busts in 2021 - FTN (For The Numbers)

I’m a pessimist by nature, so you’d think that I’d love writing a piece about my fantasy football fades for 2021.

But that’s not the case. I almost never write about guys I’m fading — and that’s intentional.

The longer I’ve been in the industry, the more I’ve realized that most people want positive information, not negative information. Give me your picks, tell me who to draft, make the case for this player, etc.

People are short on time: They want quick guidance on what to do, not thousands of words on what not to do.

That’s why I rarely highlight guys I dislike.

Plus, I’ve learned the hard way that there’s little upside for me to voice any negativity on a player. If I’m bullish on a guy and he doesn’t pan out, my audience will usually forgive me. People know that I won’t get all of my pro-player calls right, especially since many of my calls are of the “chasing upside” variety.

Check out my favorite upside quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends!

But if I’m bearish on a guy and he goes off, people are far less willing to forgive that — because (in their minds) you talked them out of drafting the guy who would have won them their leagues.

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Pragmatically, as a human being who wants to survive the miasma of social media, I avoid negative analysis as a general heuristic. But philosophically, I think it’s important in most processes to focus on the negative — to eliminate options, to have a “strong inference” mindset.

Think of the scientific method: We gain knowledge most certainly not by proving hypotheses but by disproving them. It’s similar with fantasy football: We’ve all heard the adage that you can’t win your league but you can certainly lose it in the first couple of rounds. Essentially: To win, you need to know who to avoid.

(Check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s top 100 0.5 PPR rankings.)

As much as we like to focus on upside and league-winning players, it’s just as important — and I’d argue more important — to identify the players who have significant downside and bust potential at their average draft positions (ADPs).

So for this one piece I’m throwing caution to the wind and highlighting five players going in the top 100 who I am happy not to draft at their current cost (per our ADP Report Tool).

Fantasy Football Fades 2021 – QB

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Needless to say, Aaron Rodgers was amazing last year: Out of all starting quarterbacks, he was No. 1 with an 81.2% adjusted completion rate (per our Advanced Passing Stats Tool).

But regression is coming for Rodgers: It is highly unlikely that he will once again lead the league with a 9.1% touchdown rate and 9.6 adjusted yards per attempt. Those are the type of numbers that even great quarterbacks tend not to see except in their greatest of seasons.

Expecting Rodgers at 38 years old to replicate one of the best campaigns of his career is just unreasonable, especially when he doesn’t want to play for the Packers in the first place.

And even with as great as Rodgers was last year, he was only fourth at the position in fantasy points per game.

While Rodgers was once a capable runner, he has averaged just 166 yards rushing per year in two seasons under head coach Matt LaFleur.

With regression as a passer and no ceiling as a runner, Rodgers simply has too much downside relative to the other quarterbacks with comparable ADPs.

RB to avoid in fantasy football

Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns

As I mentioned in my piece breaking down my 2021 PPR fantasy football rankings, I am low on Nick Chubb. Here’s my blurb from the piece:

“Chubb is a great runner, one of the best between-the-tackles playmakers in the league. Of all backs with 100-plus carries last year, Chubb was No. 1 with a 17.9% gash rate.

But in the words of Renly Baratheon: ‘Do you still believe good soldiers make good kings?’ With Kareem Hunt sharing the backfield, Chubb — as efficient as he is — might struggle to earn the sheer volume of snaps, carries, targets, and goal-line opportunities he needs in order to be a high-end fantasy producer. Being talented is not the same thing as scoring fantasy points.”

The Browns are No. 1 in FTN football guru Brett Whitefield’s offensive line rankings.

But volume is king at the running back position, and that makes Chubb more of a soldier than a monarch.

WRs to avoid in fantasy football 2021

Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears

I’m down on Allen Robinson this year and also in my 2021 NFL dynasty rankings.

Robinson is less of an efficient playmaker than a high-volume producer, and at wide receiver that doesn’t intrigue, especially out of a guy who is almost 28 years old.

On top of that, this season he’ll be catching passes from a nearly washed-up veteran in Andy Dalton and a promising-yet-raw rookie in Justin Fields.

Robinson will likely have another 150-target, 1,000-yard season, but I think his risk/reward profile is skewed to the downside: If he overachieves, it won’t be by much. If he underachieves, he could massively disappoint.

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Kenny Golladay, WR, New York Giants

I wrote about Kenny Golladay recently in my epic same faces/new places piece, and I also highlighted him in my 10 bold calls for 2021, where I wrote this:

“I have all the respect in the world for Golladay — but let me tell you some people I have no respect for: Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and quarterback Daniel Jones. (Sorry, Stephie.) Last year, the Giants passed for a league-low 12 touchdowns. On the one hand, they should experience positive regression this year. There’s no way they can be that bad again, right? On the other hand, even if the passing offense improves it still won’t be good: It will be mediocre at best.

Last year, the Giants allowed the second-highest pressure rate in the league with a mark of 40.3% (per our Offensive Line Stats Tool) and in the 2021 draft the Giants added zero offensive linemen. They will likely struggle to sustain drives, and Jones is unlikely to have the necessary time in the pocket to throw deep, where Golladay has thrived across his career.

Finally, Golladay has underappreciated competition for targets in wide receivers Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, tight end Evan Engram and running back Saquon Barkley. Not once in his career has Golladay had 120 targets, and he might fail to hit that mark again in 2021.”

I wrote that before his hamstring injury — and soft-tissue injuries have a way of lingering into the regular season.

I’m all the way out on Golladay this year.

Fantasy Football Fades 2021 – Tight End

Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Football Team

Last year, Logan Thomas came from nowhere at the age of 29 to finish No. 4 among tight ends with 6.9 targets per game — but he was just No. 26 with 6.1 yards per target.

Translation: He got a lot of opportunities because of circumstances, but he’s not actually that good at football.

The Football Team should have a better offense this year with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Thomas will have more competition for targets with the offseason additions of wide receivers Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, and Dyami Brown.

To me, 2020 Thomas just feels way too similar to 2015 Gary Barnidge:

Other people might disagree … but I’m betting they’re wrong: I think I’ve drafted him just once this year.

Thomas is one of the players on Nelson Sousa’s 2021 fades list, and over the years I’ve learned to fade Sousa at my own risk.

To get all of Sousa’s analysis, check out his high-stakes fantasy package, which comes with coaching sessions and Sousa’s rankings.

Freedman’s Fades – Fantasy Football Busts in 2021

Authors

Matthew Freedman