3 Win Totals to Bet

The preseason is almost over, which means that the regular season is just one transitionary off week away.

Since joining FTN, I’ve written a number of pieces on various longshot futures bets I’ve made.

But I’ve yet to write a piece on some of the win totals I’m betting. So that’s what this is.

One note: I tend to lean toward unders in the win total market for a couple of reasons.

I’m a pessimist. My brain more easily identifies +EV bear cases than +EV bull cases.
The win total market tends to be inflated. If you add all the win totals together at most sportsbooks, you almost always have more wins than the total number of games on the schedule. And that’s because many casual bettors want to put money on their teams, so the books can afford to shade the lines a little higher.

What this means is that usually unders are sharper than overs — and if I bet an over it’s only because I really like the play.

With that in mind, here are three win totals I’m betting for the 2021 NFL season, using our FTN Prop Shop to find the best lines for each bet.

To see the other bets I’ve made for the upcoming NFL season — including a side or total for every Week 1 game — check out our FTN Bet Tracker.

Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 12.5
Side: Over
Odds: +120, BetMGM

I know I’m going against my own guideline of betting unders, but I just can’t help myself. The Chiefs have rebuilt their offensive line and now have one of the best on-paper units in the league.

And most importantly they have quarterback Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid. Mahomes is … look, you know who Mahomes is, and Reid is both hailed as a great mastermind and yet also perennially disrespected. Reid has been with the Chiefs for eight years. In that stretch, how many times do you think the under has hit?

The answer: Zero.

If I can bet on Reid — at plus money — to do what he’s always done, I’m going to do it.

Pick: Over 12.5 (+120) at BetMGM

Tennessee Titans

Total: 9
Side: Under
Odds: +140, PointsBet

At DraftKings, where the under has +135 odds, an unreal 99% of the money is on the over.

If you’re telling me I can massively fade the public while also getting better odds and betting against a defense-based head coach in Mike Vrabel who last year had a bottom-10 defense, then I’m going to do it without question.

I know that the AFC South is weak and that the Titans should theoretically run away with the division. But last year the 11-5 Titans had a Pythagorean win total of just 9.1 wins (based on their points scored and allowed), and this offseason they lost offensive coordinator Arthur Smith without making (in my mind) enough upgrades on defense.

The Titans feel like a nine-win team, so I’m willing to bet on this coin flip at plus odds.

Pick: Under 9 (+140) at PointsBet

Dallas Cowboys

Total: 9
Side: Under
Odds: +120, Caesars

Even with quarterback Dak Prescott (ankle, shoulder) set to return in Week 1, the Cowboys have issues on offense. Left tackle Tyron Smith and right guard Zack Martin — the two All-Pro players who are the heart of the line — are on the wrong side of 30 years old. Young center Tyler Biadasz is an unproven replacement for retired All-Pro pivot man Travis Frederick. Right tackle La’el Collins has failed to live up to the hype he had when he entered the league five years ago, and left guard Connor Williams is middling at best.

This offense could be very explosive, but it could also be inconsistent.

And on defense, the team is a joke. They have little depth and should be almost as hapless this year as they were last year. It’s hard to fire coordinator Mike Nolan, hire any other random defensive coach in the league, and not automatically upgrade the position — but the Cowboys have somehow done it with their “addition” (cough) of coordinator Dan Quinn.

As for head coach Mike McCarthy, he has had Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and Dak Prescott as his starting quarterbacks over his 14-year career, and yet he’s managed a mediocre win total record of just 6-8.

He’s a man who knows how to make the least of a good situation.

Pick: Under 9 (+120) at Caesars