NHL Best Bets for Thursday (1/9)
Kenneth Le
The Fantasy Football Players Championship Playoff Challenge is back for the 2024-2025 NFL season. The main event is a $200 entry fee with a top prize of $500,000 and $1.4 million in total prize money. There’s also a $35 entry fee contest with $100,00 to first!
You can take a look at the official rules and scoring settings here, but the primary thing to know is that you will pick a total of 12 players — 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 4 Flex, 1 K, 1 DST — but only one player from each team is allowed. So if you take Lamar Jackson at QB, you can’t have any other Ravens players on your team.
You set your lineup once (before Wild Card weekend), and it stays that way for the whole playoffs. So choose carefully. I’ll once again compete under the team name LOECHNERNFL. There are 7,800 total entries — come take me on!
Key Things to Consider in the FFPC Playoff Challenge
- This is a large-field tournament with nearly 8,000 people, so you’ll have to get contrarian/gain leverage with some of your picks. It’s tempting to just “pick the best players” — because you can — but game theory matters here.
- You obviously want players who will play the most games, but choosing the right one- and two-offs is also extremely important. You’ll have rooting interest in 12 teams, which will quickly whittle to 8, 4 and 2. The teams thin out quickly.
- Correlation matters in this tournament. You’re not going to accurately predict every single game flow of every single possible outcome of the whole playoffs, but you can still correlate your teams to an extent, and you should.
- You will need to “soft fade” two teams (pick a DST and K for those two teams) and full fade another two. This means you’ll want to correctly predict four of the six teams that will lose during Wild Card weekend. (Ideally, your DST and K aren’t taking up roster spots after the first round — though sometimes those positions do pop off a few games in a row!)
- Super Bowl points are worth double. In nearly all cases, you’ll really want to try to have a QB playing in the Super Bowl, as they tend to score the most points.
Odds of Each Team to Make the Super Bowl
Here are the odds of each team to make it to the Super Bowl, as of Thursday (courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook):
- Detroit Lions: +295
- Kansas City Chiefs: +350
- Baltimore Ravens: +550
- Buffalo Bills: +600
- Philadelphia Eagles: +700
- Minnesota Vikings +1600
- Green Bay Packers: +2500
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +2800
- Los Angeles Chargers: +3000
- Los Angeles Rams: +4000
- Washington Commanders: +4500
- Denver Broncos +5500
- Pittsburgh Steelers: +9000
- Houston Texans: +9000
Those are the betting odds. But what about the FTN projections? Here’s are the most likely Super Bowl matchups, courtesy of FTN’s DVOA projections for Super Bowl odds.
This chart can be helpful as you identify pairings for possible Super Bowl matchups. For example, if it ends up being Ravens-Lions — which we give the second-best chance of happening — you’ll probably want Lamar Jackson and Jahmyr Gibbs/Amon-Ra St. Brown instead of Jared Goff and Derrick Henry.
| Matchups | Chance |
| DET vs. KC | 15% |
| DET vs. BAL | 13% |
| PHI vs. KC | 11% |
| PHI vs. BAL | 10% |
| DET vs. BUF | 8% |
| PHI vs. BUF | 6% |
| GB vs. BAL | 3% |
| GB vs. KC | 3% |
| LAR vs. KC | 3% |
| LAR vs. BAL | 3% |
| GB vs. BUF | 2% |
| TB vs. KC | 2% |
| WAS vs. KC | 2% |
| LAR vs. BUF | 2% |
| WAS vs. BAL | 1% |
| MIN vs. KC | 1% |
| MIN vs. BAL | 1% |
| WAS vs. BUF | 1% |
| DET vs. DEN | 1% |
| MIN vs. BUF | 1% |
| DET vs. HOU | 1% |
| PHI vs. HOU | 1% |
| LAR vs. LAC | 0.4% |
| DET vs. PIT | 0.3% |
| PHI vs. PIT | 0.3% |
| GB vs. DEN | 0.1% |
| GB vs. PIT | 0.1% |
| LAR vs. PIT | 0.1% |
| WAS vs. HOU | 0.1% |
| WAS vs. DEN | 0.1% |
How Many Games Each Team Is Projected to Play in the 2025 NFL Playoffs
The below are courtesy of FTN’s Jeff Ratcliffe and his playoff projections article.
| Team | Projected Games |
| Buffalo Bills | 2.80 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2.72 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2.29 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2.13 |
| Detroit Lions | 2.13 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.02 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 1.97 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1.82 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 1.55 |
| Houston Texans | 1.40 |
| Washington Commanders | 1.40 |
| Green Bay Packers | 1.36 |
| Denver Broncos | 1.23 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1.18 |
FFPC Playoff Challenges 2025 Team-By-Team Breakdowns
Let’s go through thoughts on a team-by-team basis.
Kansas City Chiefs (1)
Top Options: Travis Kelce (TE), Patrick Mahomes (QB)
Other Options: Xavier Worthy (WR), Marquise Brown (WR), DeAndre Hopkins (WR), Isiah Pacheco (RB), Chiefs D (DST), Harrison Butker (K)
- The bye week hurts the Chiefs players a little.
- People typically try to get four games out of their QB, but the Chiefs have the second-best odds to make the Super Bowl and getting double points out of your QB in the Super Bowl would make up for the lost game you would have had from Wild Card weekend.
- With that said, Mahomes is the weakest of the elite QBs because the others (Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen) all run.
- Travis Kelce is going to be popular because of the bonus for TE, but his rostership won’t be as high as usual in this contest because of his down year and the variety of WR options.
Detroit Lions (1)
Top Options: Jahmyr Gibbs (RB), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR), Sam LaPorta (TE)
Other Options: Jared Goff (QB), Jameson Williams (WR), David Montgomery (RB)
- The bye week hurts the Lions players a little.
- Picking between Gibbs and ARSB is going to be hard, but it will keep both players’ rostership from getting too crazy.
- LaPorta had a bad start to the season but came on really strong at the end and will be popular given the bonus to TE.
- If you like contrarian plays, Montgomery is a great pivot off of all the other Lions players — and they will all be significantly more popular.
Buffalo Bills (2)
Top Options: Josh Allen (QB), James Cook (RB)
Other Options: Khalil Shakir (WR), Dalton Kincaid (TE), Amari Cooper (WR), Keon Coleman (WR)
- Allen will contend with Lamar Jackson as the most-rostered QB of the contest, as the Bills have solid Super Bowl odds and get to play wild card weekend
- Cook’s ability to produce explosive games puts him firmly in play if you decide to fade Allen.
- The Bills get the easiest matchup of Wild Card weekend, so “soft fading” with the K or DST is not a great pick with this team.
Philadelphia Eagles (2)
Top Options: Jalen Hurts (QB), Saquon Barkley (RB), A.J. Brown (WR), DeVonta Smith (WR)
Other Options: Dallas Goedert (TE), Jake Elliott (K), Eagles D (DST)
- Hurts is going to be the lowest-rostered of the elite QBs, making him a nice leverage play given that Philly’s odds to win the Super Bowl are not dramatically behind the other teams.
- Barkley is going to be the auto-pick of the team for most people, making Brown and Smith nice leverage plays against the field
- The Packers very nearly beat the Eagles in Week 1, so if you think they pull off the upset this time, Elliott and the Eagles D are the picks.
Baltimore Ravens (3)
Top Options: Lamar Jackson (QB), Derrick Henry (RB)
Other Options: Mark Andrews (TE), Rashod Bateman (WR), Isaiah Likely (TE)
- Jackson will contend with Allen as the most-rostered QB of the contest — and I think he’ll probably be the No. 1 QB given that Baltimore has slightly better Super Bowl odds.
- However, Allen has clearly and by far the best player to pick from Buffalo, so perhaps his rostership will be higher because plenty of people will want to click King Henry’s name.
- Zay Flowers is out for the Wild Card Round, which removes him from consideration unless you want to get really, really, really contrarian.
- Andrews and Bateman both get nice bumps.
- Andrews has scored a TD in 10 of his last 12 games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3)
Top Options: Mike Evans (WR), Bucky Irving (RB)
Other Options: Baker Mayfield (QB), Jalen McMillan (WR), Rachaad White (RB), Cade Otton (TE), Chase McLaughlin (K)
- I would say Evans is definitely going to be the most-rostered Buc, but Bucky Irving’s high ceiling puts him firmly in play.
- Irving has a TD in five of his last seven healthy games and over 85 yards from scrimmage in six straight.
- Only pick Baker if you think the Bucs are going to make the Super Bowl.
- McMillan, White, Otton and McLaughlin are really only in play if you think A) the Bucs lose in the first round and B) Evans and Irving and both held in check.
Houston Texans (4)
Top Options: Nico Collins (WR), Texans D (DST), Joe Mixon (RB)
Other Options: Dalton Schultz (TE), Ka’imi Fairbairn (K)
- Collins is the best play of the group, as even in a loss he can pop off.
- Mixon and Schultz are the leverage plays against Collins, but Mixon is a better pick if you think it’s going to be a close game with the Chargers.
- The Texans are a soft fade option with their D and Fairbairn.
Los Angeles Rams (4)
Top Options: Puka Nacua (WR), Kyren Williams (RB)
Other Options: Cooper Kupp (WR), Matthew Stafford (QB)
- Only pick Stafford if you think the Lions make the Super Bowl.
- Kupp is going to be low-rostered because of his terrible end to the season, making him a nice leverage play off of both Nacua and Williams.
- Even if you think the Rams lose in the first round, you probably don’t want to “soft fade” them — as one of Nacua, Kyren or Kupp is almost certain to outscore the kicker and defense — perhaps even by a 4-5x margin.
Los Angeles Chargers (5)
Top Options: Ladd McConkey (WR), J.K. Dobbins (RB)
Other Options: Quentin Johnston (WR), Justin Herbert (QB), Joshua Palmer (WR), Cameron Dicker (K), Chargers D (DST)
- The Chargers are a decent bet to win 2-plus games, making their skill players better choices than their K or DST.
- However, both Dicker the Kicker and the DST are in play if you think the Texans pull off the upset.
- Johnston is a leverage play off McConkey, who is almost certain to be the highest-rostered Charger. Johnston did score 8 times this year.
Minnesota Vikings (5)
Top Options: Justin Jefferson (WR), T.J. Hockenson (TE)
Other Options: Aaron Jones Sr. (RB), Jordan Addison (WR), Sam Darnold (QB)
- The Vikings are 2.5-point favorites in the first round.
- Jefferson is going to be a lot of the clicks, but Hockenson is absolutely worth considering with the bonus to TEs.
- However, Hockenson hasn’t scored this season (he returned Nov. 3), so it’s not as strong of a play as it could be.
- Addison and Jones are the leverage plays off Jefferson.
- Darnold is going to have the lowest rostership among QBs on teams that are most likely to make the Super Bowl (but it’s hard to see him being better than Jefferson/Addison/Jones/Hock over a four-game stretch if that happens).
Pittsburgh Steelers (6)
Top Options: George Pickens (WR), Pat Freiermuth (TE), Chris Boswell (K)
Other Options: Jaylen Warren (RB), Najee Harris (RB)
- The Steelers are, obviously, a soft fade option with Boswell — but I wouldn’t pick their DST given how incredible Baltimore’s offense is.
- Don’t forget: The Steelers did beat the Ravens this year!
- Freiemuth is in play even if you think the Steelers lose in Round 1 because of the boost to TEs (and he’s been incredible).
- The Steelers are also a full fade option, as the FTN NFL Betting Model has them losing by 11.
Washington Commanders (6)
Top Options: Terry McLaurin (WR), Zach Ertz (TE)
Other Options: Jayden Daniels (QB), Brian Robinson Jr. (RB), Austin Ekeler (RB), Zane Gonzalez (K)
- The Commanders are a soft fade option with Gonzalez, but their DST is less attractive given how good Tampa’s offense is.
- Ertz is in the same category as McLaurin on strength-of-play thanks to the TE boost.
- Daniels will almost certainly be on the winning team if the Commanders make the Super Bowl — or maybe even just the Conference Championship.
Denver Broncos (7)
Top Options: Courtland Sutton (WR)
Other Options: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR), Wil Lutz (K)
- Full fading the Broncos is in play thanks to their tough first-round matchup with the Bills.
- However, the FTN NFL Betting Model only has Denver losing by 3.3 points, so this game could be much closer than people expect (the betting spread is +9).
Green Bay Packers (7)
Top Options: Josh Jacobs (RB)
Other Options: Jayden Reed (WR), Romeo Doubs (WR), Dontayvion Wicks (WR), Tucker Kraft (TE), Brandon McManus (K)
- Full fading the Packers is in play thanks to their tough matchup with the Eagles.
- Jacobs is a great bet to score even in a losing effort.
- The trio of WRs (with Christian Watson out) — along with Kraft — are all in play as the Packers are likely to be passing the ball often to keep up with the Eagles.
- The Packers D is not a great soft fade pick because of how good Philly’s offense is, but McManus would be a fine pick if you wanted to soft fade GB.
