2024 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds and Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX
Revised as of 12/10/24, through Week 14
Compiled by Mike Harris
The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the WEIGHTED DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)
The following teams have ratings that are adjusted for their current starting quarterbacks: Carolina, Cleveland, Dallas, Jacksonville, Miami, New England, New Orleans, New York Giants, and Pittsburgh.
Detroit’s rating is penalized slightly due to current defensive injuries.
Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
NFC East
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 11-2 | 28.3% | 14.1 | 100.0% | 13.3% | 85.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 99.0% | 1.0% |
| WAS | 8-5 | 9.4% | 10.5 | 86.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 25.7% | 57.4% | 1.0% | 85.1% |
| DAL | 5-8 | -20.4% | 6.2 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| NYG | 2-11 | -31.6% | 2.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC North
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 12-1 | 35.1% | 14.9 | 100.0% | 80.6% | 10.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 91.4% | 8.6% |
| MIN | 11-2 | 18.2% | 13.2 | 100.0% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 62.1% | 25.4% | 3.9% | 8.6% | 91.3% |
| GB | 9-4 | 25.0% | 11.8 | 98.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27.4% | 47.4% | 23.5% | 0.0% | 98.2% |
| CHI | 4-9 | -15.4% | 4.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC South
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 7-6 | -0.6% | 9.3 | 73.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.7% | 34.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.0% | 69.0% | 4.2% |
| ATL | 6-7 | -10.8% | 8.2 | 32.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.8% | 25.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 30.1% | 2.3% |
| NO | 5-8 | -18.7% | 6.3 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| CAR | 3-10 | -17.5% | 4.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC West
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 8-5 | 1.0% | 9.7 | 50.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.2% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.9% | 47.5% | 3.3% |
| LAR | 7-6 | 7.8% | 9.2 | 39.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 20.3% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 38.6% | 1.4% |
| ARI | 6-7 | 10.2% | 8.5 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 9.6% | 1.1% |
| SF | 6-7 | 14.1% | 8.0 | 7.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% |
AFC East
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 10-3 | 22.0% | 12.9 | 100.0% | 23.6% | 54.3% | 20.2% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| MIA | 6-7 | 2.9% | 8.1 | 11.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 8.6% | 0.0% | 11.0% |
| NYJ | 3-10 | -11.7% | 4.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| NE | 3-10 | -32.3% | 3.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC North
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 10-3 | 14.0% | 11.9 | 99.9% | 7.5% | 16.6% | 41.3% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 2.1% | 73.6% | 26.2% |
| BAL | 8-5 | 30.8% | 11.1 | 98.2% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 17.1% | 4.2% | 41.3% | 23.6% | 6.9% | 26.4% | 71.8% |
| CIN | 5-8 | -0.2% | 7.2 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| CLE | 3-10 | -20.5% | 4.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC South
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 8-5 | 9.0% | 10.2 | 96.7% | 0.2% | 2.3% | 12.7% | 81.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 96.3% | 0.5% |
| IND | 6-7 | -7.8% | 8.3 | 18.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 14.5% |
| JAX | 3-10 | -21.9% | 4.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| TEN | 3-10 | -28.1% | 4.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC West
| Team | W-L | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | TOT | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 12-1 | 12.6% | 14.1 | 100.0% | 68.7% | 21.7% | 8.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| LAC | 8-5 | 14.5% | 10.9 | 93.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.7% | 36.4% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 93.4% |
| DEN | 8-5 | 14.2% | 10.3 | 81.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 15.0% | 24.1% | 42.6% | 0.0% | 81.6% |
| LV | 2-11 | -22.6% | 3.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 70.3% | 48.1% | 31.0% |
| PHI | 55.1% | 25.7% | 15.0% |
| BUF | 45.3% | 26.2% | 11.3% |
| BAL | 36.0% | 21.1% | 11.1% |
| KC | 47.1% | 23.7% | 8.7% |
| GB | 21.6% | 9.2% | 5.1% |
| MIN | 22.9% | 8.8% | 4.4% |
| PIT | 24.9% | 11.3% | 4.2% |
| LAC | 14.8% | 5.8% | 2.1% |
| HOU | 17.0% | 6.4% | 2.0% |
| DEN | 12.9% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| WAS | 7.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| LAR | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| TB | 7.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| SEA | 5.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| ARI | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| SF | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| ATL | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
On the Clock
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Does not account for traded picks.
| Team | Top Pick | Top 5 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| NE | 29.8% | 92.6% |
| NYG | 43.2% | 92.2% |
| LV | 11.8% | 61.8% |
| CLE | 2.9% | 57.9% |
| TEN | 4.1% | 53.9% |
| CAR | 3.4% | 50.5% |
| NYJ | 2.4% | 42.7% |
| JAX | 2.4% | 40.1% |
| CHI | 0.0% | 6.9% |
| NO | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| CIN | 0.0% | 0.4% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several “special” Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible Super Bowls are included.
| Name | Teams | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Lake Erie Bowl | DET vs BUF | 12.6% |
| Gunther Cunningham Classic | DET vs KC | 11.5% |
| Haloti Ngata Classic | DET vs BAL | 10.1% |
| LeSean McCoy Classic | PHI vs BUF | 6.9% |
| Super Bowl LVII Rematch | PHI vs KC | 6.0% |
| Bobby Layne Classic | DET vs PIT | 5.5% |
| The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam | PHI vs BAL | 5.3% |
| Glover Quin Classic | DET vs HOU | 3.1% |
| Keystone Bowl | PHI vs PIT | 2.9% |
| Fifth Time’s The Charm | MIN vs BUF | 2.3% |
| Blue Cheese Bowl | GB vs BUF | 2.3% |
| Super Bowl I Rematch | GB vs KC | 2.2% |
| 8-Mile High Bowl | DET vs DEN | 2.2% |
| Super Bowl IV Rematch | MIN vs KC | 2.0% |
| Purple Reign | MIN vs BAL | 1.9% |
| DeMeco Ryans Reunion Special | PHI vs HOU | 1.6% |
| Super Bowl XLV Rematch | GB vs PIT | 1.0% |
| Super Bowl IX Rematch | MIN vs PIT | 1.0% |
| Commander ‘n’ Chief Bowl | WAS vs KC | 0.6% |
| Super Bowl XXVI Rematch | WAS vs BUF | 0.6% |
| Danielle Hunter Reunion Special | MIN vs HOU | 0.6% |
| Beltway Bowl | WAS vs BAL | 0.6% |
| Super Bowl XXXII Rematch | GB vs DEN | 0.5% |
| Super Bowl LV Rematch | TB vs KC | 0.4% |
| Von Miller Reunion Special | LAR vs BUF | 0.4% |
| Missouri Revenge Bowl | LAR vs KC | 0.4% |
| Mike Macdonald Reunion Special | SEA vs BAL | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XIV Rematch | LAR vs PIT | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XL Rematch | SEA vs PIT | 0.2% |
| No. 2 Overall QB Showdown | WAS vs HOU | 0.1% |
| Fight for L.A. | LAR vs LAC | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXII Rematch | WAS vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Dan Campbell Reunion Special | DET vs MIA | 0.1% |
| Chris Berman’s Dream | SF vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Super Bowls LIV-LVIII Rematch | SF vs KC | 0.1% |
| Hollywood Brown Reunion Special | ARI vs KC | 0.1% |
| Hail Murray Rematch | ARI vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XLIII Rematch | ARI vs PIT | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XLVII Rematch | SF vs BAL | 0.1% |
| Ace Ventura Bowl | PHI vs MIA | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch | SEA vs DEN | 0.1% |
