NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

Revised as of 9/9/24, through Week 1 (no MNF)

Compiled by Mike Harris

The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)

Green Bay’s DVOA is significantly penalized in Weeks 2-4, giving Jordan Love a 40% chance of returning for Week 5, a 60% chance of returning for Week 6, and an 80% chance of returning for Week 7. He returns by Week 8 in all simulations.

Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

NFC East

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
DAL	1-0	14.4%	11.6	87.3%	24.5%	18.3%	15.0%	13.4%	6.5%	5.3%	4.2%	71.2%	16.1%
PHI	1-0	-1.0%	9.4	57.4%	5.1%	6.4%	6.4%	6.7%	12.2%	10.9%	9.6%	24.7%	32.7%
WAS	0-1	-20.0%	5.8	7.7%	0.1%	0.3%	0.6%	1.4%	0.9%	1.7%	2.7%	2.3%	5.3%
NYG	0-1	-19.0%	5.4	6.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.5%	1.0%	0.8%	1.4%	2.1%	1.8%	4.3%

NFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
DET	1-0	10.6%	10.1	68.8%	10.1%	11.0%	12.1%	11.9%	7.9%	8.3%	7.6%	45.0%	23.7%
MIN	1-0	2.2%	9.7	60.3%	6.7%	8.7%	9.4%	10.1%	8.6%	8.8%	7.9%	34.9%	25.4%
GB	0-1	5.9%	7.3	23.9%	0.9%	1.9%	3.0%	4.7%	2.9%	4.5%	6.0%	10.5%	13.4%
CHI	1-0	-10.1%	7.5	23.8%	1.0%	1.7%	2.7%	4.2%	3.5%	4.6%	6.2%	9.6%	14.3%

NFC South

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
NO	1-0	9.4%	10.9	79.3%	14.8%	15.3%	15.0%	13.6%	7.4%	7.2%	6.0%	58.7%	20.7%
TB	1-0	1.3%	9.3	53.8%	4.9%	6.2%	7.5%	7.9%	9.0%	9.1%	9.2%	26.6%	27.3%
ATL	0-1	-4.9%	7.7	30.3%	1.5%	2.7%	3.6%	4.5%	4.9%	6.0%	7.0%	12.4%	17.9%
CAR	0-1	-19.4%	5.9	8.5%	0.2%	0.4%	0.7%	1.1%	1.3%	1.9%	2.9%	2.3%	6.2%

NFC West

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
SF	0-0	20.6%	11.1	80.4%	19.5%	14.9%	11.4%	8.7%	11.1%	8.0%	6.8%	54.5%	25.9%
SEA	1-0	8.1%	10.0	64.0%	8.2%	8.4%	7.6%	6.2%	14.1%	10.7%	8.8%	30.4%	33.7%
LAR	0-1	3.5%	8.2	35.9%	1.9%	3.1%	3.6%	3.6%	7.1%	8.0%	8.6%	12.2%	23.7%
ARI	0-1	-11.9%	6.3	12.5%	0.3%	0.6%	0.8%	1.2%	1.9%	3.4%	4.3%	2.9%	9.5%

AFC East

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
MIA	1-0	10.2%	10.2	70.0%	11.6%	11.3%	9.1%	6.1%	13.9%	9.8%	8.1%	38.1%	31.8%
BUF	1-0	12.4%	9.9	65.7%	11.2%	9.6%	8.2%	6.3%	12.4%	9.7%	8.2%	35.4%	30.3%
NYJ	0-0	2.9%	8.5	43.1%	4.2%	4.8%	4.4%	3.6%	9.1%	8.8%	8.1%	17.0%	26.1%
NE	1-0	-7.1%	7.8	30.4%	2.1%	2.5%	2.8%	2.2%	6.6%	7.0%	7.2%	9.5%	20.9%

AFC North

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
BAL	0-1	15.6%	10.2	69.6%	9.6%	12.3%	12.7%	10.5%	8.7%	8.3%	7.4%	45.1%	24.5%
CIN	0-1	6.1%	9.1	50.9%	4.2%	6.8%	7.8%	7.2%	7.5%	8.7%	8.7%	26.0%	24.9%
PIT	1-0	-6.6%	8.3	36.8%	2.9%	3.7%	4.5%	4.2%	6.5%	7.3%	7.7%	15.3%	21.6%
CLE	0-1	0.4%	7.9	34.3%	2.3%	3.2%	4.1%	4.1%	6.4%	6.9%	7.4%	13.7%	20.7%

AFC South

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
HOU	1-0	14.1%	10.7	79.7%	18.1%	16.2%	15.5%	17.2%	4.3%	4.1%	4.3%	67.0%	12.7%
JAX	0-1	1.5%	8.0	36.1%	2.0%	3.3%	4.9%	7.6%	5.5%	6.0%	6.8%	17.8%	18.3%
TEN	0-1	-7.4%	7.0	21.3%	0.8%	1.4%	2.4%	4.5%	3.1%	4.2%	4.9%	9.2%	12.2%
IND	0-1	-9.8%	6.7	17.9%	0.5%	0.9%	1.6%	3.1%	3.1%	4.0%	4.7%	6.1%	11.8%

AFC West

Team	W-L	DAVE	Mean Wins	TOT	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	DIV	WC
KC	1-0	15.6%	11.5	88.8%	28.1%	20.1%	16.8%	14.7%	3.1%	3.2%	2.9%	79.7%	9.2%
LAC	1-0	-10.6%	7.7	29.8%	1.6%	2.3%	3.1%	4.4%	5.7%	6.2%	6.4%	11.5%	18.4%
LV	0-1	-9.1%	6.6	15.8%	0.5%	1.1%	1.5%	2.6%	2.5%	3.5%	4.2%	5.6%	10.1%
DEN	0-1	-16.4%	5.8	9.8%	0.2%	0.4%	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	2.2%	3.0%	3.2%	6.6%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

Reaching the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Super Bowl

Team	Conf App	Conf Win	SB Win	17-0
SF	38.5%	24.2%	14.1%	0.3%
KC	41.8%	24.3%	12.9%	0.3%
DAL	38.6%	21.3%	11.6%	0.5%
HOU	33.4%	18.3%	9.6%	0.2%
BAL	26.5%	14.5%	7.7%	0.0%
NO	26.8%	12.9%	6.2%	0.2%
BUF	22.3%	11.3%	5.7%	0.0%
DET	22.3%	11.1%	5.5%	0.1%
MIA	22.3%	11.1%	5.4%	0.1%
SEA	17.7%	8.4%	4.0%	0.1%
CIN	12.5%	5.4%	2.6%	0.0%
MIN	13.4%	5.8%	2.5%	0.0%
TB	11.0%	4.4%	1.8%	0.0%
NYJ	9.1%	3.8%	1.6%	0.0%
PHI	10.3%	4.0%	1.5%	0.0%
LAR	6.9%	2.9%	1.3%	0.0%
JAX	6.6%	2.6%	1.1%	0.0%
CLE	6.1%	2.5%	1.0%	0.0%
GB	5.2%	2.2%	1.0%	0.0%
ATL	4.2%	1.4%	0.6%	0.0%
PIT	5.2%	1.8%	0.5%	0.0%
NE	3.8%	1.3%	0.4%	0.0%
LAC	3.4%	1.1%	0.3%	0.0%
TEN	2.7%	0.9%	0.3%	0.0%
CHI	2.6%	0.7%	0.3%	0.0%
IND	1.8%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%
LV	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
ARI	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

On the Clock

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Does not account for traded picks.

Team	Top Pick	Top 5 Pick
NYG	14.3%	50.6%
WAS	13.2%	47.5%
CAR	13.0%	46.7%
DEN	11.3%	43.8%
ARI	7.0%	35.0%
IND	6.7%	31.9%
LV	5.7%	30.0%
TEN	4.8%	26.3%
CHI	3.0%	20.6%
LAC	2.9%	19.3%
GB	2.8%	19.2%
ATL	3.0%	17.3%
NE	1.5%	14.8%
CLE	1.9%	14.0%
JAX	1.9%	14.0%
PIT	1.6%	12.1%
NYJ	1.3%	9.8%
LAR	1.2%	9.8%
CIN	0.9%	7.2%
PHI	0.4%	5.2%
TB	0.5%	4.8%
MIN	0.3%	4.4%
SEA	0.2%	3.0%
MIA	0.2%	2.2%
BUF	0.1%	2.1%
DET	0.1%	2.0%
BAL	0.2%	2.0%
NO	0.1%	1.4%
HOU	0.1%	1.1%
SF	0.1%	0.9%
KC	0.0%	0.4%
DAL	0.0%	0.4%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several “special” Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible Super Bowls are included.

Name	Teams	Chance
Super Bowls LIV-LVIII Rematch	SF vs KC	5.6%
1960 Double Dallas Showdown	DAL vs KC	5.3%
Demeco Ryans Reunion Special	SF vs HOU	4.3%
Texas Bowl	DAL vs HOU	3.8%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch	SF vs BAL	3.6%
Tyrann Mathieu Reunion Special	NO vs KC	3.1%
Super Bowl V Sort-of Rematch	DAL vs BAL	3.0%
Chris Berman’s Dream	SF vs BUF	2.8%
Super Bowl XIX Rematch	SF vs MIA	2.7%
Gulf Coast Challenge	NO vs HOU	2.4%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch	DAL vs BUF	2.4%
Super Bowl VI Rematch	DAL vs MIA	2.2%
David Simon Crossover Bowl	NO vs BAL	1.9%
Terron Armstead Reunion Special	NO vs MIA	1.5%
Super Bowl IV Rematch	MIN vs KC	1.4%
Dan Campbell Reunion Special	DET vs MIA	1.3%
Super Bowls XXIII-XVI Rematch	SF vs CIN	1.3%
Mike Macdonald Reunion Special	SEA vs BAL	1.2%
Chili Cookoff	DAL vs CIN	1.2%
Lake Erie Bowl	DET vs BUF	1.1%
Danielle Hunter Reunion Special	MIN vs HOU	1.1%
Super Bowl LV Rematch	TB vs KC	1.0%
Super Bowl LVII Rematch	PHI vs KC	0.9%
Robert Saleh Reunion Special	SF vs NYJ	0.9%
Tyron Smith Reunion Special	DAL vs NYJ	0.8%
The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam	PHI vs BAL	0.8%
Missouri Revenge Bowl	LAR vs KC	0.8%
Purple Reign	MIN vs BAL	0.7%
Fifth Time’s The Charm	MIN vs BUF	0.7%
Trent Baalke Reunion Special	SF vs JAX	0.7%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat	NO vs CIN	0.7%
AAFC Memorial Bowl	SF vs CLE	0.7%
Super Bowl VIII Rematch	MIN vs MIA	0.7%
Amari Cooper Reunion Special	DAL vs CLE	0.5%
Super Bowl I Rematch	GB vs KC	0.5%
Florida Bowl (South)	TB vs MIA	0.5%
LeSean McCoy Classic	PHI vs BUF	0.5%
Ace Ventura Bowl	PHI vs MIA	0.5%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch	DAL vs PIT	0.4%
Odell Beckham Reunion Special	LAR vs MIA	0.3%
Von Miller Reunion Special	LAR vs BUF	0.3%
Super Bowl XXIX Rematch	SF vs LAC	0.3%
Hell Freezes Over	DET vs CLE	0.3%
Battle of the Dynasties	DAL vs NE	0.3%
Blue Cheese Bowl	GB vs BUF	0.2%
A Song of Ice and Fire	GB vs MIA	0.2%
2019 Peach Bowl Rematch	PHI vs CIN	0.2%
Todd Bowles Reunion Special	TB vs NYJ	0.2%
Super Bowl LVI Rematch	LAR vs CIN	0.2%
DeForest Buckner Reunion Special	SF vs IND	0.2%
Calais Campbell Reunion Special	ATL vs MIA	0.2%
Super Bowl XL Rematch	SEA vs PIT	0.1%
Kevin Stefanski Reunion Special	MIN vs CLE	0.1%
Super Bowl IX Rematch	MIN vs PIT	0.1%
Haason Reddick Reunion Special	PHI vs NYJ	0.1%
Super Bowl V Rematch	DAL vs IND	0.1%
Roquan Smith Reunion Special	CHI vs BAL	0.1%
Florida Bowl (North)	TB vs JAX	0.1%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch	SEA vs NE	0.1%
Randy Moss Classic	MIN vs NE	0.1%
Hollywood Brown Reunion Special	ARI vs KC	0.1%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch	NO vs IND	0.1%
Doug Pederson Reunion Special	PHI vs JAX	0.1%
Return of the Rams	LAR vs CLE	0.1%
Jessie Bates Reunion Special	ATL vs CIN	0.1%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch	PHI vs NE	0.1%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch	LAR vs PIT	0.1%
Tom Brady Classic	TB vs NE	0.1%