The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)
Green Bay’s DVOA is significantly penalized in Weeks 2-4, giving Jordan Love a 40% chance of returning for Week 5, a 60% chance of returning for Week 6, and an 80% chance of returning for Week 7. He returns by Week 8 in all simulations.
Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
NFC East
Team
W-L
PROJ DVOA
Mean Wins
TOT
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
DIV
WC
DAL
1-0
14.4%
11.6
87.2%
23.2%
18.7%
15.7%
13.8%
6.4%
5.1%
4.3%
71.4%
15.8%
PHI
1-0
-1.0%
9.4
56.7%
4.8%
6.1%
6.3%
7.2%
11.3%
11.2%
9.8%
24.4%
32.3%
WAS
0-1
-19.9%
5.8
7.9%
0.1%
0.3%
0.6%
1.3%
0.9%
1.8%
2.8%
2.3%
5.6%
NYG
0-1
-19.0%
5.3
5.7%
0.1%
0.2%
0.5%
1.1%
0.6%
1.3%
2.0%
1.8%
3.9%
NFC North
Team
W-L
PROJ DVOA
Mean Wins
TOT
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
DIV
WC
DET
1-0
10.7%
10.2
68.8%
9.4%
11.0%
12.5%
12.9%
7.7%
8.0%
7.4%
45.7%
23.1%
MIN
1-0
2.2%
9.7
60.3%
6.3%
8.2%
9.9%
10.2%
8.2%
8.5%
8.9%
34.7%
25.7%
CHI
1-0
-10.0%
7.5
23.6%
0.8%
1.7%
2.8%
4.2%
3.3%
4.7%
6.2%
9.4%
14.2%
GB
0-1
5.8%
7.2
22.6%
0.7%
1.8%
3.1%
4.6%
2.7%
4.2%
5.5%
10.2%
12.4%
NFC South
Team
W-L
PROJ DVOA
Mean Wins
TOT
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
DIV
WC
NO
1-0
9.3%
10.9
79.2%
13.8%
15.4%
15.1%
14.4%
7.4%
6.7%
6.4%
58.8%
20.5%
TB
1-0
1.3%
9.3
53.1%
4.8%
6.1%
7.4%
8.3%
8.4%
9.2%
9.0%
26.6%
26.5%
ATL
0-1
-4.9%
7.7
30.2%
1.5%
2.6%
3.6%
4.6%
4.9%
6.0%
7.0%
12.3%
17.9%
CAR
0-1
-19.4%
5.9
8.8%
0.1%
0.3%
0.7%
1.2%
1.3%
2.1%
3.0%
2.3%
6.5%
NFC West
Team
W-L
PROJ DVOA
Mean Wins
TOT
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
DIV
WC
SF
1-0
22.5%
11.6
85.9%
24.9%
16.9%
12.0%
7.8%
11.3%
7.7%
5.4%
61.5%
24.4%
SEA
1-0
8.1%
10.0
63.6%
7.6%
7.6%
6.2%
4.8%
16.1%
11.8%
9.4%
26.2%
37.4%
LAR
0-1
3.4%
8.2
34.7%
1.7%
2.8%
2.9%
2.7%
7.3%
8.5%
8.8%
10.0%
24.7%
ARI
0-1
-11.9%
6.3
11.6%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
1.0%
2.2%
3.1%
4.0%
2.3%
9.3%
AFC East
Team
W-L
PROJ DVOA
Mean Wins
TOT
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
DIV
WC
MIA
1-0
10.1%
10.2
71.1%
11.9%
11.6%
9.9%
7.0%
13.0%
9.8%
8.0%
40.4%
30.8%
BUF
1-0
12.4%
9.9
66.7%
11.4%
10.4%
8.9%
6.9%
11.7%
9.3%
8.0%
37.6%
29.1%
NYJ
0-1
0.5%
7.8
33.3%
2.2%
3.3%
3.2%
2.9%
6.7%
7.6%
7.5%
11.6%
21.7%
NE
1-0
-7.2%
7.8
32.1%
2.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.4%
6.6%
7.4%
7.6%
10.4%
21.7%
AFC North
Team
W-L
PROJ DVOA
Mean Wins
TOT
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
DIV
WC
BAL
0-1
15.7%
10.1
70.0%
9.7%
12.5%
12.2%
10.0%
9.3%
8.6%
7.7%
44.4%
25.6%
CIN
0-1
6.2%
9.1
51.6%
4.3%
6.4%
7.8%
7.6%
7.8%
8.8%
8.8%
26.2%
25.4%
PIT
1-0
-6.6%
8.4
37.7%
2.9%
4.1%
4.6%
4.3%
7.0%
7.3%
7.6%
15.8%
21.8%
CLE
0-1
0.3%
7.9
34.0%
2.4%
3.4%
3.8%
3.9%
6.4%
6.9%
7.2%
13.6%
20.4%
AFC South
Team
W-L
PROJ DVOA
Mean Wins
TOT
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
DIV
WC
HOU
1-0
14.0%
10.8
81.2%
19.0%
16.0%
15.6%
17.2%
4.7%
4.6%
4.1%
67.8%
13.4%
JAX
0-1
1.6%
8.1
37.1%
2.0%
3.1%
4.8%
7.0%
6.3%
6.4%
7.4%
17.0%
20.1%
TEN
0-1
-7.5%
6.9
21.5%
0.9%
1.4%
2.4%
4.2%
3.3%
4.2%
5.1%
8.9%
12.6%
IND
0-1
-9.8%
6.8
18.5%
0.6%
1.1%
1.8%
2.7%
3.4%
4.1%
4.7%
6.3%
12.2%
AFC West
Team
W-L
PROJ DVOA
Mean Wins
TOT
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
DIV
WC
KC
1-0
15.5%
11.5
89.0%
28.3%
19.7%
16.5%
15.0%
3.4%
3.3%
2.7%
79.5%
9.4%
LAC
1-0
-10.6%
7.8
30.7%
1.7%
2.5%
3.1%
4.5%
6.1%
6.2%
6.7%
11.8%
19.0%
LV
0-1
-9.1%
6.6
15.7%
0.4%
0.9%
1.5%
2.4%
2.7%
3.5%
4.2%
5.3%
10.4%
DEN
0-1
-16.4%
5.8
9.9%
0.3%
0.4%
0.9%
1.9%
1.4%
2.2%
2.8%
3.5%
6.4%
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
Reaching the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Conference Championship Game
Winning the Super Bowl
Team
Conf App
Conf Win
SB Win
17-0
SF
44.3%
28.5%
16.9%
0.5%
KC
42.2%
24.2%
13.0%
0.3%
DAL
37.1%
20.4%
10.7%
0.3%
HOU
34.0%
18.4%
9.6%
0.2%
BAL
26.2%
14.4%
7.7%
0.0%
NO
26.2%
12.3%
6.1%
0.2%
BUF
22.7%
11.9%
5.8%
0.0%
MIA
23.2%
11.5%
5.5%
0.1%
DET
22.3%
10.8%
5.4%
0.1%
SEA
16.7%
7.8%
3.7%
0.1%
CIN
12.6%
5.7%
2.5%
0.0%
MIN
13.8%
5.4%
2.2%
0.0%
TB
10.4%
4.1%
1.7%
0.0%
PHI
9.7%
3.7%
1.5%
0.0%
LAR
6.2%
2.5%
1.1%
0.0%
JAX
6.9%
2.8%
1.1%
0.0%
CLE
6.2%
2.5%
0.9%
0.0%
NYJ
6.1%
2.4%
0.9%
0.0%
GB
4.7%
2.0%
0.8%
0.0%
PIT
5.3%
1.8%
0.6%
0.0%
NE
4.1%
1.3%
0.5%
0.0%
ATL
4.0%
1.2%
0.4%
0.0%
TEN
2.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.0%
LAC
3.4%
1.0%
0.3%
0.0%
CHI
2.7%
0.8%
0.3%
0.0%
IND
2.0%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
LV
1.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
On the Clock
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Does not account for traded picks.
Team
Top Pick
Top 5 Pick
NYG
14.4%
50.6%
WAS
13.0%
47.0%
CAR
13.1%
46.6%
DEN
11.2%
44.7%
ARI
7.2%
34.0%
IND
6.9%
31.1%
LV
5.6%
30.2%
TEN
4.6%
26.8%
CHI
2.9%
20.4%
GB
2.9%
19.7%
LAC
2.8%
19.2%
ATL
2.9%
17.3%
NYJ
1.8%
14.3%
NE
1.6%
14.3%
JAX
1.9%
13.6%
CLE
1.9%
13.6%
PIT
1.4%
12.0%
LAR
1.0%
9.6%
CIN
0.8%
6.9%
PHI
0.5%
5.2%
TB
0.3%
4.6%
MIN
0.3%
4.1%
SEA
0.2%
2.7%
MIA
0.2%
2.2%
BUF
0.1%
2.1%
BAL
0.1%
2.0%
DET
0.1%
1.8%
NO
0.1%
1.3%
HOU
0.1%
1.0%
DAL
0.0%
0.5%
KC
0.0%
0.5%
SF
0.0%
0.2%
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several “special” Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible Super Bowls are included.