NHL Best Bets for Thursday (1/9)
Kenneth Le
Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX
Revised as of 1/6/25, through Week 18
Compiled by Mike Harris
The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the WEIGHTED DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)
Detroit’s rating is penalized (slightly) due to current defensive injuries.
Week 18 is not included for Kansas City, Denver, Philadelphia, Buffalo, or the Los Angeles Rams.
Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 51.8% | 33.1% | 20.8% |
| DET | 65.7% | 39.8% | 18.9% |
| KC | 71.8% | 36.4% | 17.4% |
| PHI | 52.3% | 30.1% | 16.9% |
| BUF | 39.0% | 21.0% | 11.1% |
| GB | 15.4% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| LAR | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% |
| LAC | 17.4% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| TB | 16.7% | 5.2% | 1.6% |
| WAS | 14.9% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| MIN | 12.2% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| DEN | 7.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| HOU | 9.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| PIT | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several “special” Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible Super Bowls are included.
| Name | Teams | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Gunther Cunningham Classic | DET vs KC | 14.8% |
| Haloti Ngata Classic | DET vs BAL | 12.9% |
| Super Bowl LVII Rematch | PHI vs KC | 10.7% |
| The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam | PHI vs BAL | 10.1% |
| Lake Erie Bowl | DET vs BUF | 8.3% |
| LeSean McCoy Classic | PHI vs BUF | 6.4% |
| Battle of the (Old) Bays | GB vs BAL | 3.2% |
| Super Bowl I Rematch | GB vs KC | 3.1% |
| Missouri Revenge Bowl | LAR vs KC | 3.0% |
| Tony Banks Classic | LAR vs BAL | 2.7% |
| Blue Cheese Bowl | GB vs BUF | 1.9% |
| Super Bowl LV Rematch | TB vs KC | 1.9% |
| Commander ‘n’ Chief Bowl | WAS vs KC | 1.6% |
| Von Miller Reunion Special | LAR vs BUF | 1.5% |
| Beltway Bowl | WAS vs BAL | 1.4% |
| Super Bowl IV Rematch | MIN vs KC | 1.4% |
| Purple Reign | MIN vs BAL | 1.1% |
| Super Bowl XXVI Rematch | WAS vs BUF | 0.9% |
| 8-Mile High Bowl | DET vs DEN | 0.8% |
| Fifth Time’s The Charm | MIN vs BUF | 0.7% |
| Glover Quin Classic | DET vs HOU | 0.7% |
| DeMeco Ryans Reunion Special | PHI vs HOU | 0.6% |
| Fight for L.A. | LAR vs LAC | 0.4% |
| Bobby Layne Classic | DET vs PIT | 0.3% |
| Keystone Bowl | PHI vs PIT | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XXXII Rematch | GB vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XLV Rematch | GB vs PIT | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XIV Rematch | LAR vs PIT | 0.1% |
| No. 2 Overall QB Showdown | WAS vs HOU | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXII Rematch | WAS vs DEN | 0.1% |
