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NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

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Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX

Revised as of 9/9/24, through Week 1 (no MNF)

Compiled by Mike Harris

The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)

Green Bay’s DVOA is significantly penalized in Weeks 2-4, giving Jordan Love a 40% chance of returning for Week 5, a 60% chance of returning for Week 6, and an 80% chance of returning for Week 7. He returns by Week 8 in all simulations.

Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

NFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins TOT #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC
DAL 1-0 14.4% 11.6 87.3% 24.5% 18.3% 15.0% 13.4% 6.5% 5.3% 4.2% 71.2% 16.1%
PHI 1-0 -1.0% 9.4 57.4% 5.1% 6.4% 6.4% 6.7% 12.2% 10.9% 9.6% 24.7% 32.7%
WAS 0-1 -20.0% 5.8 7.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% 1.7% 2.7% 2.3% 5.3%
NYG 0-1 -19.0% 5.4 6.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 2.1% 1.8% 4.3%

NFC North

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins TOT #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC
DET 1-0 10.6% 10.1 68.8% 10.1% 11.0% 12.1% 11.9% 7.9% 8.3% 7.6% 45.0% 23.7%
MIN 1-0 2.2% 9.7 60.3% 6.7% 8.7% 9.4% 10.1% 8.6% 8.8% 7.9% 34.9% 25.4%
GB 0-1 5.9% 7.3 23.9% 0.9% 1.9% 3.0% 4.7% 2.9% 4.5% 6.0% 10.5% 13.4%
CHI 1-0 -10.1% 7.5 23.8% 1.0% 1.7% 2.7% 4.2% 3.5% 4.6% 6.2% 9.6% 14.3%

NFC South

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins TOT #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC
NO 1-0 9.4% 10.9 79.3% 14.8% 15.3% 15.0% 13.6% 7.4% 7.2% 6.0% 58.7% 20.7%
TB 1-0 1.3% 9.3 53.8% 4.9% 6.2% 7.5% 7.9% 9.0% 9.1% 9.2% 26.6% 27.3%
ATL 0-1 -4.9% 7.7 30.3% 1.5% 2.7% 3.6% 4.5% 4.9% 6.0% 7.0% 12.4% 17.9%
CAR 0-1 -19.4% 5.9 8.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 2.9% 2.3% 6.2%

NFC West

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins TOT #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC
SF 0-0 20.6% 11.1 80.4% 19.5% 14.9% 11.4% 8.7% 11.1% 8.0% 6.8% 54.5% 25.9%
SEA 1-0 8.1% 10.0 64.0% 8.2% 8.4% 7.6% 6.2% 14.1% 10.7% 8.8% 30.4% 33.7%
LAR 0-1 3.5% 8.2 35.9% 1.9% 3.1% 3.6% 3.6% 7.1% 8.0% 8.6% 12.2% 23.7%
ARI 0-1 -11.9% 6.3 12.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 1.2% 1.9% 3.4% 4.3% 2.9% 9.5%

AFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins TOT #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC
MIA 1-0 10.2% 10.2 70.0% 11.6% 11.3% 9.1% 6.1% 13.9% 9.8% 8.1% 38.1% 31.8%
BUF 1-0 12.4% 9.9 65.7% 11.2% 9.6% 8.2% 6.3% 12.4% 9.7% 8.2% 35.4% 30.3%
NYJ 0-0 2.9% 8.5 43.1% 4.2% 4.8% 4.4% 3.6% 9.1% 8.8% 8.1% 17.0% 26.1%
NE 1-0 -7.1% 7.8 30.4% 2.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.2% 6.6% 7.0% 7.2% 9.5% 20.9%

AFC North

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins TOT #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC
BAL 0-1 15.6% 10.2 69.6% 9.6% 12.3% 12.7% 10.5% 8.7% 8.3% 7.4% 45.1% 24.5%
CIN 0-1 6.1% 9.1 50.9% 4.2% 6.8% 7.8% 7.2% 7.5% 8.7% 8.7% 26.0% 24.9%
PIT 1-0 -6.6% 8.3 36.8% 2.9% 3.7% 4.5% 4.2% 6.5% 7.3% 7.7% 15.3% 21.6%
CLE 0-1 0.4% 7.9 34.3% 2.3% 3.2% 4.1% 4.1% 6.4% 6.9% 7.4% 13.7% 20.7%

AFC South

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins TOT #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC
HOU 1-0 14.1% 10.7 79.7% 18.1% 16.2% 15.5% 17.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 67.0% 12.7%
JAX 0-1 1.5% 8.0 36.1% 2.0% 3.3% 4.9% 7.6% 5.5% 6.0% 6.8% 17.8% 18.3%
TEN 0-1 -7.4% 7.0 21.3% 0.8% 1.4% 2.4% 4.5% 3.1% 4.2% 4.9% 9.2% 12.2%
IND 0-1 -9.8% 6.7 17.9% 0.5% 0.9% 1.6% 3.1% 3.1% 4.0% 4.7% 6.1% 11.8%

AFC West

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins TOT #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC
KC 1-0 15.6% 11.5 88.8% 28.1% 20.1% 16.8% 14.7% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9% 79.7% 9.2%
LAC 1-0 -10.6% 7.7 29.8% 1.6% 2.3% 3.1% 4.4% 5.7% 6.2% 6.4% 11.5% 18.4%
LV 0-1 -9.1% 6.6 15.8% 0.5% 1.1% 1.5% 2.6% 2.5% 3.5% 4.2% 5.6% 10.1%
DEN 0-1 -16.4% 5.8 9.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% 1.7% 1.4% 2.2% 3.0% 3.2% 6.6%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 17-0
SF 38.5% 24.2% 14.1% 0.3%
KC 41.8% 24.3% 12.9% 0.3%
DAL 38.6% 21.3% 11.6% 0.5%
HOU 33.4% 18.3% 9.6% 0.2%
BAL 26.5% 14.5% 7.7% 0.0%
NO 26.8% 12.9% 6.2% 0.2%
BUF 22.3% 11.3% 5.7% 0.0%
DET 22.3% 11.1% 5.5% 0.1%
MIA 22.3% 11.1% 5.4% 0.1%
SEA 17.7% 8.4% 4.0% 0.1%
CIN 12.5% 5.4% 2.6% 0.0%
MIN 13.4% 5.8% 2.5% 0.0%
TB 11.0% 4.4% 1.8% 0.0%
NYJ 9.1% 3.8% 1.6% 0.0%
PHI 10.3% 4.0% 1.5% 0.0%
LAR 6.9% 2.9% 1.3% 0.0%
JAX 6.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.0%
CLE 6.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.0%
GB 5.2% 2.2% 1.0% 0.0%
ATL 4.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%
PIT 5.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0%
NE 3.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0%
LAC 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
TEN 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
CHI 2.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
IND 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
LV 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
ARI 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

On the Clock

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Does not account for traded picks.

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
NYG 14.3% 50.6%
WAS 13.2% 47.5%
CAR 13.0% 46.7%
DEN 11.3% 43.8%
ARI 7.0% 35.0%
IND 6.7% 31.9%
LV 5.7% 30.0%
TEN 4.8% 26.3%
CHI 3.0% 20.6%
LAC 2.9% 19.3%
GB 2.8% 19.2%
ATL 3.0% 17.3%
NE 1.5% 14.8%
CLE 1.9% 14.0%
JAX 1.9% 14.0%
PIT 1.6% 12.1%
NYJ 1.3% 9.8%
LAR 1.2% 9.8%
CIN 0.9% 7.2%
PHI 0.4% 5.2%
TB 0.5% 4.8%
MIN 0.3% 4.4%
SEA 0.2% 3.0%
MIA 0.2% 2.2%
BUF 0.1% 2.1%
DET 0.1% 2.0%
BAL 0.2% 2.0%
NO 0.1% 1.4%
HOU 0.1% 1.1%
SF 0.1% 0.9%
KC 0.0% 0.4%
DAL 0.0% 0.4%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several “special” Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible Super Bowls are included.

Name Teams Chance
Super Bowls LIV-LVIII Rematch SF vs KC 5.6%
1960 Double Dallas Showdown DAL vs KC 5.3%
Demeco Ryans Reunion Special SF vs HOU 4.3%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 3.8%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch SF vs BAL 3.6%
Tyrann Mathieu Reunion Special NO vs KC 3.1%
Super Bowl V Sort-of Rematch DAL vs BAL 3.0%
Chris Berman’s Dream SF vs BUF 2.8%
Super Bowl XIX Rematch SF vs MIA 2.7%
Gulf Coast Challenge NO vs HOU 2.4%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 2.4%
Super Bowl VI Rematch DAL vs MIA 2.2%
David Simon Crossover Bowl NO vs BAL 1.9%
Terron Armstead Reunion Special NO vs MIA 1.5%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 1.4%
Dan Campbell Reunion Special DET vs MIA 1.3%
Super Bowls XXIII-XVI Rematch SF vs CIN 1.3%
Mike Macdonald Reunion Special SEA vs BAL 1.2%
Chili Cookoff DAL vs CIN 1.2%
Lake Erie Bowl DET vs BUF 1.1%
Danielle Hunter Reunion Special MIN vs HOU 1.1%
Super Bowl LV Rematch TB vs KC 1.0%
Super Bowl LVII Rematch PHI vs KC 0.9%
Robert Saleh Reunion Special SF vs NYJ 0.9%
Tyron Smith Reunion Special DAL vs NYJ 0.8%
The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam PHI vs BAL 0.8%
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 0.8%
Purple Reign MIN vs BAL 0.7%
Fifth Time’s The Charm MIN vs BUF 0.7%
Trent Baalke Reunion Special SF vs JAX 0.7%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.7%
AAFC Memorial Bowl SF vs CLE 0.7%
Super Bowl VIII Rematch MIN vs MIA 0.7%
Amari Cooper Reunion Special DAL vs CLE 0.5%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 0.5%
Florida Bowl (South) TB vs MIA 0.5%
LeSean McCoy Classic PHI vs BUF 0.5%
Ace Ventura Bowl PHI vs MIA 0.5%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.4%
Odell Beckham Reunion Special LAR vs MIA 0.3%
Von Miller Reunion Special LAR vs BUF 0.3%
Super Bowl XXIX Rematch SF vs LAC 0.3%
Hell Freezes Over DET vs CLE 0.3%
Battle of the Dynasties DAL vs NE 0.3%
Blue Cheese Bowl GB vs BUF 0.2%
A Song of Ice and Fire GB vs MIA 0.2%
2019 Peach Bowl Rematch PHI vs CIN 0.2%
Todd Bowles Reunion Special TB vs NYJ 0.2%
Super Bowl LVI Rematch LAR vs CIN 0.2%
DeForest Buckner Reunion Special SF vs IND 0.2%
Calais Campbell Reunion Special ATL vs MIA 0.2%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.1%
Kevin Stefanski Reunion Special MIN vs CLE 0.1%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.1%
Haason Reddick Reunion Special PHI vs NYJ 0.1%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.1%
Roquan Smith Reunion Special CHI vs BAL 0.1%
Florida Bowl (North) TB vs JAX 0.1%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 0.1%
Randy Moss Classic MIN vs NE 0.1%
Hollywood Brown Reunion Special ARI vs KC 0.1%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 0.1%
Doug Pederson Reunion Special PHI vs JAX 0.1%
Return of the Rams LAR vs CLE 0.1%
Jessie Bates Reunion Special ATL vs CIN 0.1%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 0.1%
Tom Brady Classic TB vs NE 0.1%
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