NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With so many star players dealing with serious injuries, taking a deep dive into usage rates is going to be as important as ever for fantasy football.
Each week, our usage report will look at one utilization stat that was noticeable and explain what that might mean for fantasy football moving forward.
Fantasy Football Usage Report Through Week 8
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Khalil Shakir getting a ton of targets, But Snap Count Low
When he has been at full strength, Khalil Shakir has clearly been one of Josh Allen’s favorite targets. This past week against the Seahawks, he led the team with a whopping 9 catches on 10 targets for 107 yards. The only cause for concern is that 58% snap rate (44) was far behind Keon Coleman’s 83% rate (63), and not too far ahead of Amari Cooper’s 50% (38). We will certainly have to monitor Cooper’s usage the next few weeks, because someone’s going to have to sit out if we expect Cooper to get more time on the field. I do think that it’ll be Coleman’s snaps that will take the biggest hit once Cooper gets more acclimated to the offense.
Miami Dolphins: Jonnu Smith Leads TEs in Snaps for First Time Since Week 2
In a crowded Dolphins TE room with Julian Hill, Jonnu Smith and Durham Smythe all getting significant playing time, we’ve seen Smith have the most impact to the offense throughout the season. Even so, Smith had been outsnapped by Hill in five of the six weeks prior to the game against the Cardinals. Surprisingly, with Tua Tagovailoa back under center, saw a season-high 66% of the snaps (43) against the Cardinals and turned it into 4 catches on 6 targets for 20 yards. With just 6% rostership in Yahoo leagues, Smith is definitely a name you should be considering as a bye week replacement at the TE position.
New England Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson Might Be a Bell Cow at Full Strength
Rhamondre Stevenson has been hampered by a foot injury that he sustained in Week 5. It held him out of Week 6, and he was limited in Week 7. But in last week’s big win against the Jets, Stevenson appeared to be at full strength and had his highest snap rate of the season, seeing 81% of the snaps (54) and getting 23 touches for 65 all-purpose yards and 2 touchdowns.
New York Jets: Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson Continue to See the Majority of the Targets
Aaron Rodgers has made it anything but a secret that Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson are his go-to targets. Adams has only been a Jet for two weeks and has seen a combined 15 targets over those two games. In fact, if we’re just looking at the WR and TE position, both Wilson and Adams combined for 18 of 29 total targets in Week 7 (62%) and 14 of 22 total targets in Week 8 (63.6%). Considering both of those games were losses and the fact that the Jets are at a dismal 2-6 for the season, it’ll be interesting to see how much the target shares will change as the season progresses.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Whenever the Game Isn’t a Blowout, Zay Flowers Will Get a Ton of Targets
Unbelievably, Zay Flowers has had four games with double-digit targets this season. That includes this past week when he caught 7 balls on 12 targets for 115 yards. The thing that stands out with Flowers is that his highs are super high, but his lows are about as low as it gets for a WR1. Those lows are tied to Weeks 3, 4 and 7 when Flowers caught 3 balls on 4 targets, 1 ball on 2 targets and 1 ball on 1 target respectively. It shouldn’t be a surprise to see that those three poor performances were all games where the Ravens blew out their opponents.
Cincinnati Bengals: Mike Gesicki Sees Second-Most Targets Among Bengals Receivers
Mike Gesicki surprisingly ended up leading the Bengals tight ends in snap rate with 53% of the snaps (31), which topped both Drew Sample and Erick All Jr. With Tee Higgins inactive, Gesicki ended up seeing the second-most targets among Bengals receivers, getting 8 targets and turning them into 7 receptions for 73 yards. If anything, Gesicki’s emergence is a bad look for Andrei Iosivas, who saw 88% of the snaps (51) but ended the day with zero targets.
Cleveland Browns: Elijah Moore Comes Back to Life with Jameis Winston at QB
With Deshaun Watson at QB, Elijah Moore wasn’t able to put together much of anything this season. But then again, the majority of the Browns roster could say the same thing. Nevertheless, Jameis Winston sliding into the QB1 role has revitalized Moore. He ended Week 8 with 8 catches on a team leading 12 targets for 85 yards. Moore is the Browns primary slot receiver, and it brings me some flashbacks to 2019 when Chris Godwin had his monster of a season with Jameis under center.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Pat Freiermuth Hasn’t Been Getting Many Looks with Russell Wilson at QB
When Justin Fields was the Steelers QB1, you could have made a convincing argument that Pat Freiermuth was his No. 2 target. You can safely say Freiermuth is not Russell Wilson’s No. 2 target considering he has only seen a total of 5 targets with Wilson as his QB. Instead, we’ve seen both Calvin Austin III and Van Jefferson see more targets than Freiermuth in each of these first two Wilson games.
AFC South
Houston Texans: John Metchie III’s Time Has (Possibly) Come
The Texans WR room is getting thinner by the minute. Nico Collins is currently on IR but has a shot to return for the Week 10 contest against the NFC leading Lions. After tearing his ACL Sunday, Stefon Diggs is definitely out for the season. The attrition at the WR position has opened up a window of opportunity for John Metchie III, who was a healthy scratch to start the season, but has gotten some playing time the last four weeks. Considering Xavier Hutchinson and Robert Woods hasn’t gotten much attention from C.J. Stroud whenever they’ve taken the field, and the fact that Metchie’s 3 catches on 4 targets for 29 yards was only behind Diggs, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz, I would be surprised if he doesn’t get an opportunity to prove his worth this Thursday against the Jets.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor Back and Has Taken Control of the RB Position
Any concerns with Jonathan Taylor’s ankle were put to rest in Week 8 when he made his return to the Colts lineup and saw 81% of the snaps (52 ) and turned 21 touches into 117 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Trey Sermon got the only other touch at RB, and it was a reception for 14 yards. Taylor will be looking to play his first full game with Joe Flacco under center this coming week against the Vikings. Considering the Lions and Rams demonstrated the importance of mixing the running game and passing game against the Vikings, I expect Taylor to be a pivot piece in the Colts game plan Sunday night.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Parker Washington the WR1 with Jacksonville’s Banged-Up WR Room
After Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. all went down with injuries, the Jaguars were forced to feature both Evan Engram and Parker Washington in their passing game. Washington saw a season high 74% of the snaps (42) and caught 3 passes on 4 targets for 46 yards. Sometimes opportunity means more than anything and with the Jaguars about to run through a daunting run of opponents in the Eagles, Vikings, Lions, and Texans, Washington is quite likely to get a large helping of targets, even if it means a ton of garbage time.
Tennessee Titans: With DeAndre Hopkins in Kansas City, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Leads WRs in Snaps
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had a season-high 92% snap rate (70) against the Lions and turned it into 2 catches on 4 targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. The 92% snap rate was more than Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd. It should also be noted that Westbrook saw 2 end zone targets, which actually puts him in the team lead for end zone targets with 4 total this season (3 of those targets ended up as touchdowns).
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton Has Biggest game of the Season
The Broncos running backs and receivers have put together one 100-yard rushing or receiving game this season, and it happened Sunday when Courtland Sutton caught 8 balls on 11 targets for 100 yards. This was a refreshing change from Sutton considering he came off a Week 7 where he ran 23 routes and saw zero targets. Sutton has been inconsistent for most of this 2024 season, but it shouldn’t come as much of a shock with the Broncos letting Bo Nix figure out this NFL thing while taking the good and the bad.
Kansas City Chiefs: DeAndre Hopkins Sees Only 32% of the Snaps
While it’s likely DeAndre Hopkins will see his usage increase in the coming weeks, it’s definitely concerning to see his initial snap count rate was only at 32% (23). Remember, this 32% snap rate is coming with JuJu Smith-Schuster inactive. If you’ve paid up to snag Hopkins off waivers, I would be very cautious with him, and if possible, keep him on the bench until we see his role increase.
Las Vegas Raiders: Zamir White Might Never Be Fantasy Viable Again
Somehow, with a super thin offense that’s in dire need of weapons, the Raiders gave Zamir White a total of two snaps. Sure, his effectiveness with the ball has been questionable, but it’s hard to believe that Ameer Abdullah should be getting 8.5 times as many snaps than White at this stage of his career. Unless something changes when the Raiders are officially out of contention for a playoff berth, there’s absolutely no reason to have White on your roster.
Los Angeles Chargers: Will Dissly Leads Team in Targets in Back-to-Back Weeks
It appears Justin Herbert has found himself a safety net in Will Dissly. For the second week in a row, Dissly led the Chargers in targets and caught 5 balls on those 7 targets for 43 yards. In PPR leagues, I can see Dissly being a very viable replacement for inconsistent tight ends like Pat Freiermuth or Isaiah Likely
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Jalen Tolbert Not Getting enough volume
In three games without Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert’s target share has gone down in each game. Against the 49ers, Tolbert saw 89% of the snaps (55), which was the same as CeeDee Lamb; however, Lamb ended the game with 17 targets while Tolbert only saw 3. The Cowboys have always been at their best when they’ve gotten contributions from their WR2. It’ll be interesting to see if Tolbert’s going to be able to pick up some more volume against a more favorable opponent this week, the Atlanta Falcons.
New York Giants: Darius Slayton Sees 100% of the Snaps in Back-to-Back Weeks
As far as snap rates are concerned, Darius Slayton is well ahead of Wan’Dale Robinson Slayton has seen 100% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks and has outsnapped Robinson in every game this season. With the 100% snap share, he has also outsnapped Malik Nabers in each of the weeks since Nabers’ return from a concussion. While the circumstances in this Giants offense isn’t exactly ideal, it’s worth noting that Slayton is only rostered in 14% of Yahoo leagues and is a free pickup for anyone in need of a dependable bye week replacement.
Philadelphia Eagles: Eagles Probably Shouldn’t Be Running 3 WR Sets
Jahan Dotson has seen 35% (22), 58% (38) and 43% (26) of the snaps in the three weeks since both DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown returned to the lineup. He has turned those 86 snaps to just 1 catch on 4 targets for 10 yards. It’s possible that the Eagles will end up running 12 personnel with 2 TE s on the field more often once Dallas Goedert returns to the lineup. They’ve run 12-personnel over 50% of the time in Week 6 and Week 8, and with Grant Calcaterra’s emergence, it would surprise me if that trend doesn’t continue with Goedert back.
Washington Commanders: Noah Brown Is the WR2
You might know Noah Brown from the instant classic of a Hail Mary in the Week 8 victory against the Bears, but it should be noted that Brown actually outsnapped Terry McLaurin 81% (60) to 72% (53). Considering he saw the second-most snaps at the WR position in the three previous weeks, it’s clear that Brown has jumped Luke McCaffrey, Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus on the depth chart.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: D’Andre Swift Getting a Ton of Volume
In Week 8, D’Andre Swift saw his highest snap rate of the season at 73% (46). He has also gotten at least 18 touches in every game since the turning point of the season — a huge performance Week 4 against the Rams where he combined for 163 scrimmage yards. In fact, he has hit 100-plus scrimmage yards in every game since that Week 4 performance.
Detroit Lions: Without Jameson Williams, Tim Patrick Sees Highest Snap Rate of the Season
With Jameson Williams out of the lineup due to a suspension, Tim Patrick saw his highest snap rate of the season at 77% (37 snaps). Unfortunately, he ended the day with zero catches on one target. It should be noted that the Lions were starting in or close to the red zone in almost every drive, so Jared Goff ended up just throwing the ball 15 times. With Williams still out due to the suspension, it’s quite likely Patrick will have a bigger impact this coming Sunday against the Packers.
Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson’s Lack of Volume Is Concerning
In Week 8, Christian Watson saw his highest snap rate of the season — getting 74% of the snaps (52). Even with the high snap share, he only ended the day with 4 catches on 4 catchable targets for 46 yards. In fact, he has not seen more than 4 catchable targets in each of his seven games this season. If you have Watson on the roster, it might be time to explore alternatives, if you haven’t already done so.
Minnesota Vikings: Vikings Really Leaning on Aaron Jones
In Week 8, Aaron Jones saw his highest snap rate of the season, getting 92% of the snaps (46) in a tough loss to the Rams. His increased usage has taken the ball out of Ty Chandler’s hands. In the last three games with Jones at full strength, Chandler has seen his usage go down drastically each game (4 touches, 2 touches, and 0 touches).
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts Only Sees 48% of the Snaps
Kyle Pitts was benched for a series or two because of his end zone mistake where Antoine Winfield Jr. nearly took a touchdown away from Pitts due to his lackadaisical effort running to the end zone. That was enough to see Pitts see his snap rate get pushed down to just 48% of the snaps (30). In fact, he was outsnapped by Charlie Woerner for the first time this season. While Pitts enjoyers have been experiencing a very nice run of games since his breakout performance Week 5 against Tampa Bay, it’s tough to feel too confident in him considering he has only led the team in targets one week this season.
Carolina Panthers: David Moore Leads Panthers Receivers in Snap Rate
While Xavier Legette’s the compelling play as the first-round draft pick and Jalen Coker has arguably been the most impressive, it’s actually David Moore who got the highest snap rate from the WR position, seeing 82% of the snaps (50) and getting 4 catches on 5 targets for 39 yards. At this point it’s probably not ideal to be playing any Panthers receivers, but we’ve definitely seen a lot of garbage time production throughout the lineup that should be considered.
New Orleans Saints: Saints Continue to Be Hampered by Injuries
Chris Olave is undoubtedly going to get the majority of targets whenever he’s healthy, but it’s worth noting that both Bub Means and Juwan Johnson left Week 8 due to injuries. When you add Rashid Shaheed going on IR and Cedrick Wilson Jr. being inactive, it led to unideal conditions for Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener to work with. Mason Tipton was the WR2 by necessity and ended the game with 2 catches on 2 targets for 14 yards. Equanimeous St. Brown saw his highest snap rate of the season, seeing 47% of the snaps (34) but ended the game with zero targets.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Not Much Comfort If Rostering Any TB Receiver Not Named Cade Otton
Baker Mayfield took 51 dropbacks and attempted 50 passes. It led to a total of 38 catchable balls thrown, but the 5-man WR replacement crew featuring Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, Ryan Miller, Rakim Jarrett and Trey Palmer — tasked with replacing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin’s production — ended with just 4, 3, 3, 3 and 2 catchable targets, respectively. On the other hand, Cade Otton had 9 catches on 9 catchable targets for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns. We’ll have to see if any of the 5 receivers emerge in the coming weeks, but it’s far from an ideal situation for Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner Must Be Fed for the Cardinals to Succeed
The Cardinals have won four games this season, and James Conner played a pivotal role in each of those 4 victories. Conner has seen at least 21 touches in each of those four victories and has combined for 446 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns. This is not a coincidence, folks. Conner is a featured piece in the Cardinals offense, and we can fully expect him to continue to see a ton of volume as the Cardinals make their playoff run.
Los Angeles Rams: Demarcus Robinson More Viable with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp Back
Considering Demarcus Robinson has led the team in snap share in five of the Rams’ seven games this season, it wasn’t a surprise to see him continue to see a high snap rate with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp back in the lineup. Robinson saw 85% of the snaps (61), but most importantly, he caught 2 balls on 3 targets with both catches being endzone touchdowns. Robinson has the luxury of seeing single-man coverage whenever Nacua and Kupp is on the field, and it’s no surprise to see his production increase with them back in the lineup.
San Francisco 49ers: Chris Conley Not Getting Much Love from Brock Purdy
With Brandon Aiyuk out for the season and Jauan Jennings inactive, the 49ers have put Chris Conley on the field out of necessity. Conley has 70% (44) and 76% of the snaps (52) in the last two weeks of play but has seen just 1 catchable target in those 96 snaps. Jauan Jennings should have an important role locked in for him once he returns to the lineup.
Seattle Seahawks: Seahawks Offense Might Continue to Struggle Without DK Metcalf
Against the Bills, the Seahawks offense looked far from what we’re used to seeing, and a big reason for that is likely DK Metcalf’s absence. Metcalf’s ability to open up the field is one of the things that you don’t really think about until it’s right in front of your face. Jake Bobo saw his snaps increase without Metcalf, seeing 76% of the snaps (39 snaps) but only had 1 catch on 1 target for 15 yards.
