Week 6 Game-by-Game DFS Breakdown

Welcome to the game-by-game DFS breakdown for Week 6. In this write-up, I’ll walk you through the players, stacks, one-offs, etc., that I’ll be targeting weekly in DFS. My aim here is that you can apply this encyclopedia of stats and my word vomit to a variety of sites and contests with everything from cash to your GPP entries.

With plenty of words ahead to peruse, let’s dive into this week’s action. 

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

GB -6, O/U 44

Pace and playcalling

This should easily be the slowest-paced game of the entire slate. The Packers are 30th in neutral-script pace this season while the Bears have been 32nd with Justin Fields under center (Weeks 3-5). Green Bay’s passing rate is helping mask this snail-like pace. Aaron Rodgers is throwing on 60.1% (10th highest) of his neutral-script plays. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for Fields. There is run-heavy, and then there’s what the Bears have done the last three weeks. Fields operates an offense throwing on only 37.9% of their plays in close games. This is an astronomically low figure. When they have trailed with Fields, they pass on 78.2% of their plays, although this is a sample of only 23 plays. It’s hard to feel much better with that small sample of plays that the Bears will let Fields chuck if they are trailing, considering how much they are tying his hands when the game is within reach. 

Injuries

Green Bay

• Aaron Jones (RB) – (Ankle – LP / LP / LP) – Status: No Designation
• Kevin King (CB) – (Shoulder – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Robert Tonyan (TE) – (Knee – LP / LP / LP) – Status: No Designation

Chicago

• Akiem Hicks (DL) – (Groin – DNP / DNP / LP ) – Status: Questionable
• Khalil Mack (LB) – (Foot – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
• Allen Robinson (WR) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Darnell Mooney (WR) – (Groin – LP / LP / LP) – Status: No Designation

Packers

Last week, Aaron Rodgers set a season-high in pass attempts (39), but that finding was puffed up by the fact they went into overtime where Rodgers logged four pass attempts. The reality for Rodgers at this juncture is that the pace of this offense will cap his weekly attempts in the mid-30 range because the passing rate isn’t high enough to overcome. With that type of volume, for Rodgers to hit a GPP worthy ceiling, he needs a monster efficiency game. Over his last four games, we haven’t seen it as he’s averaging 23.4 DK points per game (22.5 FD). His price tag is too lofty (QB5 DraftKings $7,200, QB8 FanDuel $7,700) for his production to this point. I still contend this pass defense is exploitable despite their fourth ranking in pass defense DVOA because they are middle of the road in other metrics. Chicago is 16th in DVOA against deep passing and 20th in explosive pass rate allowed. While I’m not fond of Rodgers this week, we can still look to this game for mini-stacks and some one-offs. 

I discussed this last week, but if Aaron Jones remains limited (ankle) all week in practice, I won’t be rostering him in GPPs. Over the last two weeks, AJ Dillon has factored into this backfield more, and Jones’ inclusion on the injury report during that span is the only logical cause. The Bears are not a smash matchup for a player like Jones, who has always relied on touchdowns and efficiency over raw volume. The Bears have given up the 12th-lowest explosive run rate and are fifth in red-zone rushing defense. Chicago has allowed only 32% of rushing plays to be successful and one score on the ground inside the 20. Even Jones passing game involvement won’t likely save him here against a team ranked 14th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against receiving backs. They have allowed the 10th-lowest receiving yardage to backs (175) and zero receiving touchdowns. 

Weeks 4-5

Weeks 2-3

Davante Adams is a king who needs no introduction. He leads all wideouts in targets share (37.8%) and weighted opportunity. and is fourth in air yard market share (44.8%). Adams lines up as the LWR on 39.7% of his routes (29.9% slot, 29.9% RWR). This is important because Jaylon Johnson primarily plays RCB as the Bears play sides with their corners. Johnson has been the lone bright light in the Bears’ secondary allowing a 39.1% catch rate and 41.4 passer rating. Adams can win against any cornerback in the NFL, but this matchup is notable — if he fails to hit a massive ceiling, Johnson is likely the primary cause. Allen Lazard has stepped as the other primary receiver (38.2% RWR, 23% slot) on the outside opposite Adams. He’s been quiet the last two weeks since assuming the starting spot with Marquez Valdes-Scantling lost to injury. Over that span, Lazard has seen only a 7.5% target share. Lazard and Adams will run about 60% of their routes against the corners to pick on in Chicago named Kindle Vildor and Duke Shelley. Vildor has allowed 68.4% catch rate and 136.1 passer rating. Shelley has given up a 76% catch rate and 99.1 passer rating. Cobb will play inside on 81% of his routes against Shelley. Cobb has a 13.5% target share over the last two weeks. This season the Bears have allowed eight passing touchdowns with half of them coming via deep passing. This season, Adams leads the team (11) in deep targets. Last season that honor fell to Valdes-Scantling with Adams second, but the third player in the pecking order was Lazard. Lazard has a chance to make some noise this week and is in play for large fields, MME, and mini-correlations.

Robert Tonyan has faded into the background this season with a 10.4% target share (9.2% air yard market share). He’s a fade for me this week against a defense ranking ninth in DVOA against the position. Over the last two weeks the Bears have held Darren Waller (eight targets, four receptions, 45 receiving yards, zero touchdowns) and T.J. Hockenson (eight targets, four receptions, 42 receiving yards, zero touchdowns) to similar pitiful stat lines.

Bears

Justin Fields isn’t in consideration. The Bears are neutering this offense with abysmal pace and passing rates. Fields has yet to attempt more than 20 passes or rush more than three times in any game. His 8.8 fantasy points last week were a season-high (ouch). 

With Damien Williams now on the Reserve/COVID-19 List and almost certainly out for Sunday, Khalil Herbert will operate as the Bears workhorse back. The Bears trusted him on early downs last week from the breakdown below, but now he can also absorb the passing-game usage. The Bears’ offensive line has been quietly solid in run blocking, ranking 13th, 14th and 16th in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open-field yards. The Packers improved run defense has shown cracks in the pavement over the last two weeks. A dinged-up Joe Mixon ran ineffectively (3.3 yards per carry), but Najee Harris (Week 4) and Samaje Perine rushed for a combined 4.6 yards per carry. Green Bay ranks 27th and 20th in adjusted line yards and open field yards allowed. They are 24th in DVOA against pass-catching backs allowing the seventh-most receptions (32) and third-most receiving touchdowns (three). Khalil Herbert will be chalky this week, but there’s merit to matching or overweighting the field with consideration to the run-heavy nature of this offense and the matchup.

Week 5 touch count by gamescript

Week 5 overall usage

Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney have led this passing attack with Fields under center. Robinson has a 24.3% target share (27.3% of the air yards), playing 63.2% of his snaps out wide. Mooney has a 28.6% target share (33.6% air yard market share), running his routes on the perimeter on 64.7% of snaps. 

**Update: Kevin King ruled out. Isaac Yiadom assumes the starting spot with Stokes**

They’ll match up with Isaac Yiadom and Eric Stokes on most of their routes. Stokes has conceded a 54.5% catch rate and 69.4 passer rating. Over the last three weeks, Robinson and Mooney’s target and air yard shares look prettier than their raw volume (Robinson 14 targets, Mooney 16 targets). Mooney is moving up my board as we progress through the week. Yiadom starting is the final straw. Yiadom has lined up almost exclusively as LCB during his time with the Packers. Mooney has spent 37.4% (his highest percentage as an outside receiver) as RWR. Yiadom has allowed a 67.1% and 113.3 passer rating across 146 career targets. Robinson enters this game banged up. If he misses this week, Mooney could be the centerpiece of the Chicago passing attack.

Cole Kmet isn’t a viable play. Kmet has a 19.3% target share, but again that means little as he’s only drawn 11 targets over that span. Only one of those targets has been in the red zone. The Packers are ranked 22nd in DVOA against the tight end position. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Khalil Herbert (GPP/cash), Davante Adams, Darnell Mooney
GPP only: Allen Lazard, Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Detroit Lions

CIN -3.5, O/U 47

Pace and playcalling

There’s possibly a small ray of hope peeking out from behind the clouds in Cincinnati. After ranking 31st in pace in Weeks 1-4, they were 21st in neutral pace last game. The passing rate, which stood at 51.8% in Weeks 1-3 in neutral script, has been 63.8% and 62.5% over the last two games. Both of these factors led to a season-high 36 pass attempts before overtime in Week 5. 

The Lions have slowed with each passing week and now sit at 25th in neutral pace. The team has also quickly realized that Jared Goff is not a good NFL quarterback as they are now 29th (52.0%) in neutral passing rate. If the Bengals don’t jump out a lead early, the Lions’ passing volume could immensely suffer. Detroit will throw when forced as they are passing on 76.4% (sixth highest) when trailing. 

Injuries

Cincinnati 

• Joe Mixon (RB) – (Ankle – LP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Joe Burrow (QB) – (Throat – FP / FP / FP) – Status: No Designation

Detroit

• T.J. Hockenson (TE) – (Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Trey Flowers (LB) – (Knee – DNP / LP / ) – Status: Questionable
• Amani Oruwariye (CB) – (Hip – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• D’Andre Swift (RB) – (Groin – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Jamaal Williams (RB) – (Hip – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Bengals

With a rising passing rate and now possibly with the pace following suit, this is the week to get out in front of a Joe Burrow blow-up game. The Lions might be the worst pass defense in the NFL. Detroit ranks first in adjusted completion rate (82.1%) and yards per attempt (9.9) allowed. This secondary has allowed the eighth-highest deep completion rate (46.2%) and second-most deep passing yards (472) per FTN Data. Burrow is tied for the most deep passing touchdowns (four) and holds the tenth highest deep passer rating (103). He has been efficient with his passing volume, ranking sixth in yards per attempt (8.8) behind only Russell Wilson, Tyrod Taylor, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson. Time to light up a cigar and craft my best Burrow impression as I watch my Bengals stack lineups on Sunday.

Looking at Week 5 usage for Joe Mixon and it’s easy to see he’s not close to healthy. Samaje Perine was the quiet backfield leader, although the early-down work was a dead heat. With Perine on the Reserve/COVID-19 List, we’ll have to see if he’s able to get cleared by Sunday. The Lions have been a good but not outstanding matchup for opposing rushers. Detroit has allowed the tenth most rushing yards (651), but the real source for their downfall has been touchdowns (six, seventh-most). They have been above average on a per-carry basis with the 12th highest stuff rate (48.2%) and 13th lowest gash rate allowed (8.8%) per FTN Data. My thoughts on this backfield will remain in flux depending on Mixon’s practice reports, Perine’s availability, and both of their popularity through the weekend. Currently, I’m fading the entire backfield. 

Week 5

In the three games Tee Higgins has been active, he’s drawn a 24% target share (26% of the air yards) while leading the receivers in red-zone targets (three). Higgins moves all around (31.7% slot, 27.7% LWR, 37.8% RWR) the formation. He’ll see an equal amount of Detroit’s three struggling corners. Amani Oruwariye and Jerry Jacobs will guard him when he’s outside. Oruwariye has allowed a 72.7% catch rate and 87.7 passer rating. Jacobs assumed the starting role from Bobby Price in Week 5, allowing 66.7% (three targets) of his targets to be secured and a 106.3 passer rating. When Higgins moves into the slot, he’ll match up with AJ Parker, who’s giving up a 92.3% catch rate and 147.9 passer rating. Higgins is my second-favorite receiver to stack with Burrow. 

Excuse me for burying the lead. Good things come to those that wait. Ja’Marr Chase continues his rookie season tear this week. In his three games with Higgins, he’s seen a 22.6% target share but a whopping 50% of the air yards. Higgins has been the Bengals’ go-to inside the 20, but Chase has been their deep threat leading the team in that span with eight deep targets (Higgins 1, Boyd 0). Chase will also match up (LWR 50.5%, slot 32.1%) with all three corners at various points in the game. Boyd (87.1% slot) is, unfortunately, the wideout left out in the cold. With Higgins, he’s drawn a 20% target share but has zero looks deep or in the red zone.

C.J. Uzomah doesn’t make the GPP list. With Higgins active, he’s seen a 6.6% target share and zero red-zone looks. His massive Week 4 game was a match-up-based outlier performance that he probably doesn’t come close to for the rest of the season. 

Detroit

Every week when you read about Detroit the likely response to, “Do I look at Jared Goff in DFS?” will be a resounding no. Goff has failed to throw for 250 yards in three of his last four games with two contests below ten fantasy points scored. The Bengals pass defense has been surprisingly good ranking 12th in DVOA and allowing the eighth lowest yards per attempt (6.8). 

D’Andre Swift has made core plays in the last few weeks, but for Week 6, he’s only making the rosters in a mini correlation or as part of a game stack. There’s an odd mix of upside and risk in this matchup. The Bengals are 26th in explosive run rate allowed and 28th in open-field yards allowed. These metrics imply Swift is set for a banner day, but they don’t tell the entire story. Cincinnati is also fourth and sixth in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed. They rank third and sixth in red zone defense against the run and the pass. Detroit’s line is 12th in adjusted line yards and second-level yards generated, but they are 24th in open-field yards, and they just lost arguably their best blocker (Frank Ragnow, toe) to a season-ending injury. The Bengals are ninth in DVOA against pass-catching backs. They have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards (250), but 40% came in one game when Najee Harris soaked up a ridiculous 19 targets (14 receptions, 102 receiving yards). Looking at Swift and Jamaal Williams’ full-season usage, the answer is Swift from this backfield.

Full season usage

The two full-time receivers for Detroit will be Kalif Raymond and Amon-Ra St. Brown, with Quintez Cephus (collarbone) out. Over the last two weeks, the passing game has gravitated to St. Brown, with Raymond’s target share taking a hit. Last week with Cephus going down, Raymond saw his slot usage increase from 33.6% to 43.3% at the expense of pushing St. Brown to the boundary. St. Brown still played 61.7% (previous 84.7% slot) from the slot. The slot usage is interesting in this game because Mike Hilton has arguably been the team’s most exploitable full-time corner. Hilton is allowing an 82.1% catch rate and 109.5 passer rating. Even if Raymond sees slot time this week, St. Brown will still hold the upper hand and run 60% plus routes inside. He’s tied for the team lead in red-zone targets with T.J. Hockenson.

Chidobe Awuzie has been stellar so far this year, allowing a 59.4% catch rate and 71.7 passer rating. Eli Apple and Trae Waynes cloud split work opposite him. Awuzie has been shadowing this year at times (per our FTN Daily Shadow Index below), so it’s not impossible he follows Raymond on over half his routes. 

Hockenson has seen his target share (10%) fall over the last two weeks, but his price (TE4, $5,000, DraftKings; TE4, $6,400, FanDuel) has stayed relatively high. Hockenson still has a 14.2% target share this year with three games of eight or more targets on the resume. This week he gets a Bengals’ defense that has allowed the fifth-lowest receiving yards (153) to opposing tight ends. The Bengals haven’t played a tight end with as much talent and target upside to this point. Yes, they played Robert Tonyan in Week 5, but he’s been a ghost in the Green Bay offense. The run-back options of Swift, St. Brown, and Hockenson are all in play. Considering matchup and price, my favorite is St. Brown, but each is in play depending on your 2v2. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown
GPP only: Tee Higgins, D’Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

IND -10, O/U 43.5

Pace and playcalling

Last week we saw a change for the Colts. The only reasonable explanation is possibly Carson Wentz’s improved health, but they improved in pace and passing rate. In Weeks 1-4, this team was 27th and 15th (59.2%) in neutral pace and passing rate. Last week they climbed to tenth and eighth (62.5%) in pace and passing rate when the game was close. When they led in Week 5, they still ran on 60.8% of their plays which is close to their full season 60.3% (tenth) positive script rushing rate. 

Houston is 25th in neutral-script pace with Davis Mills under center. They have run the sixth-fewest plays (97) in that environment, so it’s probably more fitting considering that and the spread that we discuss their approach when they’ve been down. They are sixth and 18th (69.7%) in pace and passing rate when they’ve trailed. 

Injuries

Houston

• Laremy Tunsil (OL) – OUT

Indianapolis

• Darius Leonard (LB) – (Ankle/Shoulder – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Xavier Rhodes (CB) – (Concussion – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable
• Rock Ya-Sin (CB) – (Ankle – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Kwity Paye (DE) – (Hamstring – LP / FP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Braden Smith (OL) – (Foot/Thumb – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT

Texans

As much as I love diving into the weeds weekly to find hidden gems, the only player you’re going to find in this writeup for Houston is Brandin Cooks. Yes, Davis Mills just ripped the Patriots’ secondary apart, completing 72.4% of his passes with 312 yards and three scores, but this is also a player with a 2:5 touchdown to interception ratio over his three previous starts. Mills’ showing should only make you feel better about rostering Cooks this week. Mills should have time to throw against a defense ranked 32nd in pressure rate. 

Cooks is third in target share (30.8%), fifth in air yard market share (44.8%), and second in weighted opportunity among all receivers. Cooks leads the team in deep targets (nine) and now faces a secondary ranked 31st against deep passing. Cooks will run ~68% of his routes against Xavier Rhodes and Rock Ya-Sin. Rhodes has allowed a 72.7% catch rate and 110.8 passer rating. Ya-Sin has given up a 71.4% catch rate and 138.1 passer rating in coverage. Cooks can burn both of them this week.

Colts

After one game, I’m not ready to go off the deep end and recommend Carson Wentz as a GPP target at quarterback, but his performance was impressive, and this Texans’ secondary is not nearly as good as some of the numbers suggest. Houston might be ninth in pass defense DVOA, but they’re allowing the third-highest adjusted completion rate to first reads (73.5%) and the ninth-highest yards per attempt (8.0) to opposing quarterbacks. I mentioned this last week, but their secondary has not been exposed as much because they have seen the tenth fewest passing attempts (166). Let’s make this clear this secondary is not good. Their 30th ranking in explosive pass rate allowed illustrates this perfectly. Wentz is quietly fifth in deep ball completion rate. He should have plenty of time to find open receivers, with the Texans ranking 31st in pressure rate. 

Jonathan Taylor’s upside in this matchup is immense. Looking at the backfield usage last week compared to previous weeks with Marlon Mack active and it appears that the Colts are finally utilizing him as the clear lead back. His Week 5 route total was his highest since Week 1 (18 routes). The Colts even got creative, lining him up out wide or in the slot on 14.3% of his routes. 

Taylor gobbled up all the red zone chances last week and currently leads the NFL in red zone carries (24) and carries inside the 5-yard line (eight). He faces a run defense with the sixth-lowest stuff rate (41.1%) and fifth-highest gash rate (12.3%). Houston sits at 30th and 31st in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed. The Colts line remains a shell of itself, but you’d never know it by looking at their run blocking metrics. Indy is 10th and fifth in second-level and open-field yards, respectively. Coming off a monstrous performance in an island game, Taylor will be popular, but this is chalk worth eating. 

Week 5 usage

Weeks 2/4 with Marlon Mack active

The only receiving options worth discussing for Indy are Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal. Parris Campbell doesn’t make the list. Campbell saw his routes cannibalized in Week 5 by Ashton Dulin and with his 1.0 yards per route run we can see why. Pittman’s usage this year has been outstanding with a 24.2% target share (36% air yard market share) with 27% of the first read targets (leads the team). Pittman will line out outside on ~77% of his routes against Terrance Mitchell and Desmond King. Vernon Hargreaves has been benched. Mitchell has allowed a 56.5% catch rate and 93.8 passer rating. King has given up an 83.3% catch rate and 124.5 passer rating. Pittman leads the team in deep targets (eight) and can Moss both these corners in Week 6. 

**Update: T.Y. Hilton might make his return this week. His snaps and effectiveness are questionable, although yes, his history versus the Texans means 200 yards is incoming (lol).**

Zach Pascal has a 16.2% target share and has been the team’s preferred red-zone weapon this year through the air. Pascal has a 50% end zone target share and 37% red zone share. He’ll line up against Tavierre Thomas, who has allowed all four targets in his coverage to be secured this season. Last year in Cleveland, Thomas allowed an 85.2% catch rate and 110.8 passer rating in coverage. Pascal’s yardage ceiling is likely capped, but he has massive touchdown equity in this offense.

Trying to nail the right Colts’ tight end can leave you penniless or with stress diarrhea. Jack Doyle (9.4%) and Mo Alie-Cox (8.4%) are in a deadlock in target share and red zone usage (both three targets). In Week 4, Kylen Granson led the team in routes (17) at the position, followed by Alie-Cox (16). That was flipped on its head in Week 5 as Doyle (15) led the tight ends in routes. Yeah, no thanks. If I want frequent trips to the bathroom, I’ll order Taco Bell. I don’t need to play a Colts tight end for this pain. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Jonathan Taylor
GPP only: Brandin Cooks, Zach Pascal, Michael Pittman

Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants

LAR -9.5, O/U 48,5

Pace and playcalling

The pace of this game should be average as the Rams are 13th and Giants 17th in neutral-script play volume. The passing rates for both teams sit around the median like their pace. These two teams are 14th (LAR, 59%) and 15th (NYG, 57.9%) in neutral passing rate. When (or if) the Rams jump out to a sizable lead, they will still throw on 46.1% (12th highest) of their plays. While that figure is encouraging for Matthew Stafford and company, that still means this offense is running on nearly 54% of their plays once they’re winning. When the Giants are trailing, they will take to the sky (12th highest, 71.7%). 

Injuries

Los Angeles

• Aaron Donald (DL) – (Knee – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation

New York

• Saquon Barkley (RB) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Kenny Golladay (WR) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Daniel Jones (QB) – (Concussion – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Andrew Thomas (T) – (Foot – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Sterling Shepard (WR) – (Hamstring – LP / LP / LP) – Status: No Designation
• Darius Slayton (WR) – (Hamstring – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Kadarius Toney (WR) – (Ankle – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Rams

Matthew Stafford should cut this Big Apple secondary in half by feasting on the core of their pass defense inadequacies. This Giants defense is 22nd in DVOA against the pass, but they are 26th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against the deep ball. That will lead to their undoing in Week 6 against a passer that’s 12th in deep completion rate. The Giants have allowed the second-highest adjusted completion rate (81.9%) and seventh-most passing touchdowns (10). Stafford has been surgical when given time in the pocket, ranking ninth in clean pocket completion rate (75.4%) per FTN Data. The Giants will give him all the time he needs as they are 30th in pressure rate (18.8%). Stafford makes the core plays list this week. 

Darrell Henderson is in a fantastic spot and too cheap on DraftKings (RB14, $6,000) for his role if he can stay healthy for an entire game. In the games in which he hasn’t been dinged up, he’s averaged 92% snaps, 18 touches, and 101.5 total yards. He’s been explosive when on the field with the sixth-best breakaway run rate. He faces a defense ranked eighth in yards after contact per attempt allowed (2.72) and gash rate (11.3%) per FTN Data. With two games of five-plus targets under his belt this season and a game in which the Rams are heavily favored, he is stack viable with Stafford. 

Cooper Kupp should feast on this secondary. Kupp’s usage is ridiculous this season with a 33% target share, 38% first read share, and a whopping 38% red zone target share. Only D.K. Metcalf has a higher red zone target share (41%) among wide receivers. This week, he draws another cushy match-up against Julian Love in the slot (64.2% of his routes). Love has allowed a 70.5% catch rate (61 targets) and 105.7 passer rating in this career. Kupp is the main weapon for Stafford when he looks deep, leading the team with seven deep targets. 

Robert Woods will rotate as the RWR (38.6) and out of the slot (48.8%). Woods has commanded a 23% target share, a 22% first read share, and a 23% red zone target share. When Woods is outside, he’ll see a mix of Adoree’ Jackson and James Bradberry. Neither of these corners are players to fear at this juncture of their careers. Jackson has allowed a 68.8% catch rate and 100.3 passer rating. Bradberry has been burnt, conceding a 76.2% catch rate and 117.1 passer rating. Double stacking Stafford with Kupp and Woods is viable here. 

Van Jefferson will play 50.5% as the LWR, but he’ll lose routes to DeSean Jackson. Since Week 3, Jefferson (84 routes) had run more routes than Jackson (41 routes). Jefferson has only seen a 13% target share, but he’s had a role deep (five targets) and in the red zone (two targets). Jackson has been the deep weapon, only ranking second on the team in deep targets (six), but he hasn’t drawn a target inside the 20. Based on the dual role for Jefferson, I do lean him slightly if you’re looking at one of these players, but that’s not to say Jackson isn’t viable. With 50% of his target volume from deep passes against a team that struggles downfield, he is also rosterable in a Stafford stack. Jackson has shown this year that he has a massive ceiling and can get there off 4-5 targets.

Tyler Higbee is also in play for Stafford stacks. Higbee has an 11% target share, but he’s run a route on 78.2% of Stafford’s dropbacks. He’s garnered a 23% red zone target share. The Giants are 23rd in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) against the position allowing the ninth-most receiving yards (293) and most receiving touchdowns (four). 

Giants

Daniel Jones is not making my GPP rosters this week. The Rams pass defense has been middle of the road against quarterbacks ranking 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position (19.7), but a chunk of that has come on the ground. The Rams have allowed 137 rushing yards (fifth-most) and two scores. Yes, Jones is a mobile quarterback, but through the air his ceiling is capped, and he will be under duress for much of the game. Los Angeles has given up on six passing touchdowns (fifth lowest) and they have the 12th highest pressure rate. For a quarterback ranking 25th in pressured completion rate this could be crushing. 

Devontae Booker is a player I don’t have much love for this week. Booker is cheap (RB23 $5,400 DraftKings, RB24 $5,900 FanDuel) for a running back projected to handle 17-20 touches this week, but the matchup isn’t great. Last week Booker turned his 19 opportunities into 58 total yards, but his day was saved by two scores. The efficiency won’t be there this week running behind an offensive line ranked 31st in adjusted line yards and second-level yards. The Rams are 12th and seventh in adjusted line yards and second-level yards allowed. They rank 15th in gash rate allowed. If Booker pays off it’s likely with multiple touchdowns or through the passing game. Los Angeles is ranked 17th in DVOA against receiving backs giving up the ninth most receptions (30) and receiving yards (239). I’ll be curious how popular he’ll be this week. If he’s chalky then he’ll be an easy fade, but if he comes in sub 5% then my ears will perk up. At the time of writing this he’s more viable in GPPs as a Rams stack run-back. 

The Giants starting trio looks like Darius Slayton (LWR), Sterling Shepard (slot), and Kadarius Toney (RWR, possibly some slot usage). Slayton saw a 13.6% target share and 20.3% of the air yard market share in Weeks 1-3. He’ll match up against Darius Williams on most of his routes. Williams has allowed a 68.8% catch rate and 95.4 passer rating. Shepard is likely to reprise his slot role (74% slot Weeks 1-3). Over that span, he saw a 21.6% target share with four red-zone looks. He’ll see Jalen Ramsey inside. This isn’t a matchup to attack as Ramsey is giving up a 63.6% catch rate and 79.1 passer rating this year. Toney is the receiver to roster from this group if you’re looking for a run-back. Toney saw a 30% target share in Weeks 4-5, and while he is probably better projected in the 20% range, he’ll still be an integral piece against David Long. Long has given up a 70.6% catch rate and 97.2 passer rating this year.

Evan Engram is a player I’m usually not high on in DFS, which holds this week. Since returning, he’s seen a 13% target share with two red-zone targets. Engram is a frustratingly talented but inefficient player. His struggles have continued this season with only 1.1 yards per route run. The Rams have been good for the most part against tight ends ranking tenth in DVOA (per Football Outsiders). They allowed Maxx Williams to secure all five of his targets for 66 yards and a score, but they held other tight ends in check this season. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Matthew Stafford, Darrell Henderson, Cooper Kupp
GPP only: Robert Woods, Van Jefferson, DeSean Jackson, Tyler Higbee, Devontae Booker, Kadarius Toney

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Football Team

KC -6.5, O/U 54.5

Pace and playcalling

The pace of this game should be average to slightly above average, with Washington keeping their foot on the gas. Kansas City has never been a team that sprints; instead, relying on efficiency, they are 19th in neutral-script pace this year. On the other hand, Washington is engaged in a track meet weekly, ranking fifth in pace in neutral environments. 

These two teams are shockingly run heavy when the score is close, though. They are 22nd (54.6%, KC) and 19th (55.2%, WAS) in neutral passing rate. If the Football team gets behind early, they won’t go pass crazy. Washington is 28th (57.7%) in passing rate in negative scripts. 

Injuries

Kansas City

• Charvarius Ward (CB) – (Quad – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Tyreek Hill (WR) – (Quad – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Chris Jones (DT) – (Wrist – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Joe Thuney (OL) – (Hand – DNP / DNP / FP) – Status: Questionable

Washington

• Sam Cosmi (OL) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Antonio Gibson (WR) – (Shin – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Curtis Samuel (WR) – (Groin – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Brandon Scherff (OL) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Cam Sims (WR) – (Hamstring – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Jonathan Allen (DT) – (Knee – LP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Dyami Brown (WR) – (Knee – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes can destroy this Washington defense in Week 5. The Football team is ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders). They have allowed the seventh-most passing yards (1,507) and second-most passing touchdowns (14). Washington will attempt to blitz (third-highest rate, 34.9%) Mahomes, but it won’t work. Mahomes is fourth in completion rate (78.6%) against the blitz. Andy Reid will dismantle this defense with the use of play-action. Mahomes has the fifth most play-action dropbacks and ranks 12th in play-action completion rate (74.1%). Washington has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt (9.5) on play-action plays and the 10th-highest play-action passing touchdown rate (5.9%).

Per the FTN Daily splits tool, Patrick Mahomes has shown in a limited sample he’s capable of crushing without Tyreek Hill in the lineup:

Darrel Williams was the clear lead back after Clyde Edwards-Helaire left the game last week. He gets a tough draw in his first game starting. The Washington run defense is quite good. They have allowed the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt (1.85) this season. Washington has the third-highest stuff rate and ninth-lowest gash rate permitted. Williams’ best path to a productive day could be via the passing game. Washington ranks 31st in DVOA against pass-catching backs and has allowed a league-high six receiving touchdowns. Yes, three of those scores were from Cordarrelle Patterson, but Alvin Kamara and Zack Moss have each tallied 30 or more receiving yards and touchdowns versus Washington over the last three weeks. Despite the matchup, Williams is viable both in cash with his projected volume and Chiefs’ stacks for GPPs. 

*Update:*

Tyreek Hill logged back-to-back DNPs before sneaking in a limited session on Friday. This situation needs to be monitored up to lock. I won’t be surprised if he plays or is out. Both of these outcomes are on the table. If he suits up, Hill will see his usual elite usage. He has a 28.2% target share (seventh among receivers) and a 40.8% air yard share (ninth among wideouts). HIll could see a shadow from William Jackson, who, per our Shadow Index, has been elite when following receivers. Jackson has allowed a 46.4% catch rate and 72.2 passer rating overall. His issue has been that if he slides into the slot, he can be beaten. Jackson has played 22 snaps out of the slot, allowing all five of his targets to be secured and a 147.1 passer rating. Hill versus off coverage is a nail in the coffin to all those that try, so while Jackson is a shutdown corner, don’t move Hill down because of it. Hill could get his share of reps against Fuller as well.

If Hill is out, Mecole Hardman stands out as a screaming value ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) for a player that saw a 24% target share last week playing 58% of his snaps out of the slot. Hardman will match up against Kendall Fuller who is allowing a 72.2% catch rate and 94.0 passer rating in slot coverage. Hardman has a 17% red zone share which is behind only Hill (21%) among the wide receivers. Hardman will be a core play this week. 

The rest of this receiver group will be a jumbled mess. Demarcus Robinson will get his weekly cardio in after finishing second on the team last week in routes (48) and only drawing two targets. The remaining snaps and routes at receiver will be divided between Byron Pringle and Josh Gordon. Gordon only ran four routes last week, and while that number likely goes up, I’m not going to chase these tertiary Chiefs’ receivers when this team has shown time and time again they are comfortable running their offense through 2-3 main players. This week that likely means heavy doses of Williams, Hardman and Travis Kelce. 

Kelce will be popular this week. He has been quiet recently, but he’s still doing Kelce-type things. He’s third among tight ends in target share (23.2%) and second in weighted opportunity behind Darren Waller. The Washington Football team is ranked sixth in DVOA against the position, but they haven’t faced someone like Kelce yet (no, rookie Kyle Pitts doesn’t count). Tight ends have posted healthy stat lines versus them while they haven’t smashed. Kelce has displayed that matchups matter little. If Hill does miss Kelce’s splits, it has shown that it doesn’t mean an automatic smash outing without him. It’s worth noting that Kelce had seven receptions and 80 or more receiving yards in three of those four games. The problem is he scored in only one game. This season Kelce is third in red zone target share (14%) behind Hill and Hardman. This is a good week to change that. 

Notable tight ends vs. WAS

Football Team

Taylor Heinicke is GPP-worthy this week. He’s scored 23 or more DK points in three of his last four games. The mobility helps to add to his floor and ceiling with back-to-back outings of 40 or more rushing yards. He’s a better value on DraftKings (QB12, $5,800) and SuperDraft (1.55x) than he is on FanDuel (QB10, $7,300). The Chiefs’ pass defense has struggled to defend at all levels ranking 28th in DVOA against short and deep passing. They have surrendered the fifth-most passing yards (1,543) and third-highest yards per attempt (9.3). This has been an elite matchup for opposing quarterbacks as they have given up the most fantasy points per game (28.1) to the quarterback position.  Given the rushing floor Heinicke has displayed and the huge upside here, he’s a target for GPPs. 

**Update: With the McLaurin news, I’ve moved Heinicke out of core plays. He’s still viable in GPPs if McLaurin suits up, but I’ll be avoiding him if McLaurin sits.**

If Heinicke fails, it’s because Antonio Gibson likely went ballistic. Despite his shin injury, Washington has not limited him over the last two weeks as he’s averaged 19 touches per game and is neck and neck with J.D. McKissic (Gibson 36, McKissic 38) for routes. The Chiefs have been ripped in half by running backs giving up the fourth-most rushing yards (705) and the most rushing touchdowns (nine). Gibson has been the red zone back with six carries inside the 20 in last week’s game. Kansas City is 31st in explosive run rate allowed and 28th in red-zone rushing defense (66% success rate allowed). Gibson has maintained his per carry effectiveness with 2.79 yards after contact over the last two weeks (2.84, Weeks 1-3). I don’t have much interest in chasing McKissic in GPPs. Outside of an in-game injury, Gibson will garner usage in the passing game, and he owns the red zone, so outside of Gibson leaving, McKissic won’t have full command over the roles that breathe life into his GPP value. 

Terry McLaurin falls out of core plays and is only GPP rosterable with the injury news. McLaurin is fourth (29.2%) in target share, sixth in air yard market share (43.4%) and third in weighted opportunity among all wide receivers. He’ll run roughly 72% of his routes outside against L’Jarius Sneed and Rashad Fenton. Sneed has been torched this year, allowing an 82.6% catch rate and 152.3 passer rating. Fenton is giving up a 71.4% catch rate and 108.6 passer rating. 

If you’re looking to save salary ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) and pivot off a chalky player, in a game stack Dyami Brown makes sense. Injuries have ravaged the Washington receiving depth chart. Brown will likely start opposite McLaurin. In Weeks 1-3, he played 65-93% of the snaps seeing a 13.6% target share (28.6% of the air yards) while leading the team in deep targets (three). 

Ricky Seals-Jones will be chalk this week. At $3,000 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel, he’s too cheap for the “Logan Thomas” role he’s inherited. Last week he ran a route on 87.5% of dropbacks with a 19.5% target share and three red-zone targets. He’s cash-worthy with that role, but considering his popularity, I’ll likely fade in GPPs outside of a game stack. Kansas City has bled out points to the tight end position. They are 27th in DVOA against the tight end position allowing the most receiving yards (466) and the fifth-most receptions (31). 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Patrick Mahomes, Darrel Williams, Travis Kelce, Ricky Seals-Jones
GPP only: Dyami Brown, Antonio Gibson, Mecole Hardman, Tyreek Hill,  Taylor Heinicke, Terry McLaurin

Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers

MIN -2, O/U 45.5

Pace and playcalling

After five games, we can more adamantly say the new-look Vikings pace and passing rate looks like it’s here to stay. Minnesota is fourth and eighth (61.8%) in neutral pace and passing rate. They take on a Carolina team that mirrors their 2020 approach. The Panthers play slow and run the ball, ranking 26th and 23rd (54.3%) in pace and passing rate in neutral game situations. 

Injuries

Minnesota

• Alexander Mattixon (RB) – (Shoulder – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Justin Jefferson (WR) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: No Designation
• Adam Thielen (WR) – (Foot – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: No Designation
• Anthony Barr (LB) – (Knee – DNP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Michael Pierce (DT) – (Elbow – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Dalvin Cook (RB) – (Ankle – LP / FP / FP) – Status:  No Designation

Carolina

• Chrisitan McCaffrey (RB) – (Hamstring – LP / DNP / LP) – Status: Doubtful

Vikings

Kirk Cousins isn’t on the radar this week. Carolina ranks second in pass defense DVOA, allowing the third-lowest yards per attempt (6.3). If the Vikings’ offense is limping into this game, Cousins could be in trouble. The Panthers rank first in pressure rate (32.3%), and Cousins has suffered versus pressure. He’s seen pressure on 35.8% (12th highest) of his dropbacks. While he sits at 14th in pressured completion rate, he has the fifth-largest negative yards per attempt difference (4.4) when under duress per FTN Data. 

*Update: Dalvin Cook is ready to roll and makes the core plays after back-to-back full practices.*

Rostering a Vikings back in DFS will come down to if Dalvin Cook is active. The last time we saw Cook at less than full health, he split work with Alexander Mattison on early downs while retaining the majority share of the passing-game usage. When Cook has been out in Weeks 3 and 5, Mattison has been the unquestioned lead back. 

The Panthers are 27th in open field yards and 23rd in explosive run rate allowed. They have shown a tendency to give up big plays despite having the sixth highest stuff rate (52.9%). Cook ranks 14th in breakaway run rate while Mattison is 37th. A limited Cook is tough to play considering his price (RB3 $7,700 DraftKings, RB2 $8,800 FanDuel), but if he is sub 5%, he’s worth looking at in MME. If we see him log multiple full practices this week, he’ll be a core play.

We can go back to Mattison if Cook is out despite the middling matchup as a player that will likely see around 25 touches. These two will have to get their work done on the ground because Carolina has been tough versus receiving backs. The Panthers are first in DVOA against the position allowing the second-fewest receptions (14) and receiving yards (68). 

Week 4 usage

Week 3/5 usage

Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are playing. Jefferson has been elite, playing 70.3% of his snaps out wide seeing a 24% target share (42% of the air yards). He leads the receivers with a 31% first read share and has taken over the red zone mantle from Thielen. Jefferson is tied with Thielen with 37% of the end zone targets, but he leads in red zone share with 27% (Thielen, 22%). He’ll see Keith Taylor (fifth-round rookie) and Donte Jackson on the outside. Taylor has allowed a 66.7% catch rate on his three targets in coverage. Jackson has picked his play up, giving up a 66.7% catch rate and 82.5 passer rating. Thielen will draw the same two corners on 75% of his routes. Thielen has a 20% target share and 24% of the first read targets. If you’re looking at this receiving depth chart, Jefferson is the play over Thielen. 

K.J. Osborn will play 60% of his snaps from the slot. Osborn isn’t a viable play unless one or both big-name receivers misses the game. He’s only seen a 15% target share this year, and he hasn’t drawn a red zone or end zone target. He’ll match up with A.J. Bouye inside. Bouye is allowing a 75% catch rate but a 77.6 passer rating. 

The Panthers have been tough against tight ends, ranking fifth in DVOA, allowing the 12th-fewest receiving yards (214). If one of the receivers missed this game, Tyler Conklin might see a small bump from his 13% target share and 16% red zone share, but this doesn’t project as a ceiling spot for him.

Panthers

Sam Darnold isn’t in consideration against a pass defense that has come to life over the last few games. Minnesota is sixth in pass defense DVOA. Over the last two weeks they have allowed a 52.9 completion percentage and 5.2 yards per attempt. Yes, they faced Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield, but this defense can rattle Darnold. Minnesota ranks second in pressure rate (31.7%). Darnold is 20th in pressured passer rating (70.2) per FTN Data. 

Chuba Hubbard makes it into the GPP and cash pool this week. With Christian McCaffrey looking doubtful to play this week, Hubbard is staring down 20 plus touches in a plus matchup. He’s priced appropriately on DraftKings (RB15, $5,900) and FanDuel (RB13, $6,900). He also has a strong multiplier on SuperDraft (1.55x). I like Hubbard more this week than last because, well, the Panthers like Hubbard more. In Week 5, he took over the lead back role and regulated Royce Freeman to nothing more than a breather role. With Rodney Smith now cut, Hubbard will reprise his Week 5 usage. The Vikings’ pass defense might have picked it up, but their run defense is still lagging. Minnesota ranked 29th, 26th and 16th in adjusted line yards, second-level and open-field yards allowed. Per FTN Data, they have given up the 12th highest gash rate while also cultivating the 10th-lowest stuff rate. For Hubbard to hit a ceiling here, he needs to get into the endzone once or twice, and that’s possible against a run defense also ranked 25th inside the 20 (63% success rate allowed). With a handful of mid-range backs in play in Week 5, Hubbard could get lost in the shuffle by the field. 

Week 4 CAR backfield usage

Week 5 usage

DJ Moore leads this wide receiver room with a 28% target share (36% of the air yards). Moore has seen 35% of the first read targets, 33% of the end-zone looks, and 26% of the red-zone share. He’ll run 85% of his routes on the perimeter against Patrick Peterson and either Bashaud Breeland or Cameron Dantzler. Over the last three games, this secondary has played well. Peterson has allowed a 55.6% catch rate and 78.5 passer rating. Breeland has been the weak link giving up a 77.8% catch rate and 118.8 passer rating. Dantzler was just activated from the Reserve/COVID-19 List, but he will likely start opposite Peterson if he is good to go. Dantzler has been shut down, allowing a 33% catch rate and 46.1 passer rating. 

Robby Anderson will run opposite Moore (66% out wide) on the outside. Anderson has a 16% target share and 32% of the air yards this season. Moore has gobbled up his red-zone role with only an 11% share of the end zone targets and 15% of the red zone volume. Anderson is a player I’m lower on, considering the matchups this week. 

Terrace Marshall will run from the slot 70% of his snaps. I won’t be playing him this week with his 11% target share and non-existent red zone role (5% share). The only receiver from this group that I’ll roster in a mini-stack from this game is Moore. 

Ian Thomas (6%) and Tommy Tremble (3%) are splitting routes, and their sub-10% target shares make them unrosterable. Minnesota has allowed the 15th-most receiving yards (215) and zero scores to tight ends.

DFS Plays

Core plays: Dalvin Cook, Chuba Hubbard
GPP only: Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens

BAL -2.5, O/U 51.5

Pace and playcalling

This game should finish around the middle of the pack for pace with the Chargers pushing the gas. These two teams rank third (LAC) and 22nd (BAL) in neutral-script pace. The Chargers have been passing rate heaven ranking sixth, throwing on 63.6% of their neutral situation plays. The Ravens are throwing on 53% (26th) of their plays when the score is close. 

Injuries

Los Angeles

• Justin Jackson (RB) – (Groin – LP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Mike Williams (WR) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Baltimore

• Sammy Watkins (WR) – (Thigh – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Alejandro Villanueva (OL) – (Knee – LP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Lamar Jackson (QB) – (Illness –  / DNP / FP) – Status: No Designation

Chargers

Justin Herbert is set for another big game this week against a Ravens’ secondary that is a shell of its former glory. Baltimore is 20th in DVOA allowing the sixth-highest yards per attempt (8.2). They are getting picked apart by short passing ranking 26th in DVOA against it. They have allowed the third-most yards after the catch (901). Los Angeles is relying on Herbert especially in the red zone where they have the fifth-highest passing rate (70.3%). Baltimore is ranked 28th in red-zone pass defense. 

Austin Ekeler needs to be near or at the top of your list if you’re paying up at running back. Ekeler’s touchdown equity in this offense is massive. He is fourth and eighth in the NFL in red zone and inside the ten-yard line rushing attempts. He also has a 16.2% target share (seventh among running backs) and 11% red-zone target share against a bottom five red-zone pass defense. Ekeler’s big-play ability (sixth in break-away runs) will be on display against a run defense ranked 30th in explosive run rate allowed. Play as a one-off or as a stack partner with Herbert. 

**Update: Monitor Mike Williams status up to lock. There’s a real possibility he misses this game as the team has stated he’s dealing with swelling in his knee. If that happens I’ll be overweight on Ekeler and Allen.**

Mike Williams logging DNPs is scary this week, but I’ll keep this updated in case he misses this week. Keenan Allen and Williams have been alphas this year, although recently Williams has stolen the show. Williams is the WR2 in fantasy, ranking fifth in receiving yards (471), seventh in receptions (31) and first in total touchdowns (six). Williams will run 85% of his routes on the perimeter against Marlon Humphrey and Anthony Averett. Humphrey has allowed a 55.6% catch rate and 100.2 passer rating this year. Averett has been tougher, allowing a 62.2% catch rate and 79.9 passer rating, but he was destroyed last week, giving up an 81.8% catch rate and 149.1 passer rating. 

Allen is my favorite stacking option with Herbert, as he leads the team in short and intermediate targets while also having a slight edge (29%) in red-zone target share. Allen will run around 60% of his routes from the slot against Tavon Young, who is allowing an 83.3% catch rate and 101.6 passer rating. Even if Williams is out, I won’t’ be playing Jalen Guyton. Guyton lacks a trait I love in wide receivers, and that’s the ability to earn targets. 

Jared Cook is stack worthy if you’re looking to correlate your tight end with your quarterback play (you should be). Cook has seen a 12% target share, and he’s tied with Ekeler with an 11% red zone target share. This season, the Ravens have been atrocious against tight ends, ranking 29th in DVOA, allowing the most receptions (36) and second-most receiving yards (420). 

Ravens

Assuming Lamar Jackson plays, he is one of my favorite quarterbacks plays of this slate. The Chargers are 11th in pass DVOA, but you bleed them dry with a thousand underneath cuts like Baltimore. They are ranked second in DVOA against deep passing, but they’re 29th in DVOA against short passing. They are allowing the ninth highest adjusted completion rate per FTN Data. Jackson can rush for 100 yards against this run defense as well. They are 27th in explosive run rate allowed and conceding the fourth-highest gash rate in the NFL. 

Any thoughts of rostering Latavius Murray this week should make you love Jackson more. Lamar has been a key cog on the ground as the engine for this offense. Murray is a dust ball, only forcing two missed tackles this season on his 50 rushing attempts. Good matchup or not, I won’t be rostering a back with only one run of ten-plus yards on that type of volume. Jackson has 14 missed tackles and ten runs of ten or more yards on his 35 attempts. 

BAL backfield Weeks 4-5

The two main cogs for this passing attack are Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews. Brown has a 24.8% target share and 33.2% of the air yards. He’s been on fire this season with 19 or more fantasy points in four of his five games. This week I’m more interested in Andrews. Andrews leads the team in short area targets with 21 (Brown, 15). Where Brown has done most of his damage is deep, leading the team with 11 deep targets, which account for 28.9% of his target volume. Brown will run about 66% of his routes against Asante Samuel and Michael Davis. Samuel has allowed a 70.8% catch rate and 88.0 passer rating. Davis has permitted a 58.3% catch rate and 93.8 passer rating. 

Rashod Bateman is set to make his debut, but the word out of Baltimore is that he’ll be on a limited snap count in his first NFL action. 

Andrews has seen a 23% target share and is tied with Brown’s 24% red zone target share. He faces a Charger defense that tight ends have gashed. The Bolts have given up 30 receptions (eighth), 406 receiving yards (third), and four receiving touchdowns (first) to the position. Andrews is rosterable as a one-off or in a mini-stack with Keenan Allen or Ekeler. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews
GPP only: Jared Cook

Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns

CLE -3.5, O/U 49.5

Pace and playcalling

This game will be below average in pace. Arizona hasn’t been as quick (14th) this season, and now they take on a team that loves to crawl (CLE, 28th) in neutral scripts. The Cardinals have been middle of the road passing on 56.8% (17th) of their neutral plays. The Browns continue to be among the most run-heavy teams (third, 48.9%) in neutral environments. 

Injuries

Arizona

• Chandler Jones (LB) – COVID-19 List
• Jordan Hicks (LB) – (Toe – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• DeAndre Hopkins (WR) – (Illness – DNP / DNP / FP) – Status: No Designation
• Rodney Hudson (OL) – (Ribs/Shoulder – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Byron Murphy (CB) – (Ribs – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Marco Wilson (CB) – (Ribs – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Kelvin Beachum (OL) – (Ribs – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Chase Edmonds (RB) – (Shoulder – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Kyler Murray (QB) – (Right Shoulder – LP / LP / FP) – Status: No Designation

Cleveland

• Nick Chubb (RB) – (Calf – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Jadeveon Clowney (DE) – (Elbow/Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Jack Conklin (T) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
• Myles Garrett (DE) – (Toe – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Kareem Hunt (RB) – (Wrist/Knee – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Greg Newsome (CB) – (Calf – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• David Njoku (TE) – (Knee – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: No Designation
• J.C. Tretter (OL) – (Knee – DNP / DNP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Denzel Ward (CB) – (Neck – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Greedy Williams (CB) – (Shoulder/Knee – LP / LP / FP) – Status: Questionable
• Jedrick Wills (OL) – (Toe – LP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

Cardinals

The news of Kyler Murray’s shoulder injury does raise the concern level for my Murray love in Week 6. The splits below are notable and too much to ignore. Without knowing the severity of the injury, though, it won’t take him off my GPP radar, but if you’re only running 1-3 lineups, he probably doesn’t make the cut. 

If Murray’s shoulder is sound enough, he can decimate this secondary deep. The Browns are 29th in deep passing DVOA. They have allowed a 42.9% (12th-highest) deep completion rate, 362 deep passing yards (seventh), and a 109.6 deep passer rating (seventh). Murray has been surgical as a deep passer, ranking first in completion rate (70.8%), deep passing yards (541), and deep passing touchdowns (four). Anything he does with his legs is a small bonus this week.

This backfield is an easy fade this week against a run defense ranked fifth, first and second in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open-field yards. Even after Austin Ekeler got the best of them last week, the Browns still rank 12th in DVOA against pass-catching running backs. They have allowed the fourth-fewest receptions (17) and the fifth-fewest receiving yards (158) to the position. 

DeAndre Hopkins is the primary stacking option for Murray. Hopkins still leads this team with 22.2% of the targets and 37.2% of the air yards. He is also tops in end zone target share (45%) and red zone share (26%). Hopkins will see Denzel Ward and either Greedy Williams or Greg Newsome on the outside. Ward has allowed a 60% catch rate and 84.8 passer rating. Williams has been starting with Newsome out, allowing a 60% catch rate and 56.9 passer rating. Newsome could reclaim his starting role if he returns this week. Newsome allowed a 57.1% catch rate and 103.6 passer rating before the injury. A.J. Green has seen a 16.6% target share and 22.4% air yard share and will draw coverage those same corners playing 88.3% of his snaps outside. Christian Kirk (18 routes) and Rondale Moore (20 routes) were back to splitting routes again in Week 5, which caps their upside. I’ll stay away from them this week and get my exposure by playing Murray. If attacking deep is the name of the game, Hopkins will lead the way as he has the most deep targets (eight) on the team. A.J. Green would be the second option if you’re looking to double-stack Murray as he’s the only other full-time receiver, and he’s tied with Kirk (five) for second in deep targets. I do prefer to skinny stack Murray with Hopkins only. 

Browns

I won’t roster Baker Mayfield in GPPs. He has only one game with 20-plus fantasy points on his resume this season, and this week he gets a pass defense ranked third in DVOA. This matchup is set up for the Browns to keep the ball on the ground. 

**Update:**

Kareem Hunt enters the core play conversation with Nick Chubb being ruled out. D’Ernest Johnson will likely work behind Hunt, spelling him on snaps at times. Hunt continued his hot streak last week, poaching a touchdown from Chubb while finishing with four red-zone touches to Chubb’s six. Both rushers have been immensely effective on the ground, ranking second (Chubb, 4.1) and fifth (Hunt, 3.7) in yards after contact per attempt among running backs with ten or more carries. Hunt is in line for a 20-25 touch workload as the unquestioned backfield leader. The matchup against Arizona’s run defense is one of the best in the NFL. Arizona is fifth in rushing yards (695) allowed this season. They have the ninth-lowest stuff rate and second-highest gash rate per FTN Data. 

Full season usage

Maybe I am just a sucker for pain, but I’m willing to go back to Odell Beckham in a game stack this week. Beckham still has a 21.3% target share and a 34% air yard market share. While his targets (9, then 7, then 3) and receiving yards (77, then 27, then 20) have dipped in three consecutive weeks, his snaps have increased from 64% to 79% to 81% last week. Beckham will run 80.8% of his routes on the perimeter against Robert Alford and Marco Wilson. Alford has given up a 62.5% catch rate and 91.0 passer rating. Wilson is playing like a rookie allowing a 78.3% catch rate and 139.4 passer rating. 

David Njoku is a trap. Last week despite drawing eight targets (21 routes), he still split routes with Austin Hooper (15 routes) and Harrison Bryant (ten routes). The fact that Hooper and Bryant didn’t draw any targets will lead to false hope Njoku is taking over here, and that’s not the case. Arizona is also ranked first in DVOA against the tight-end position. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: Kareem Hunt
GPP only: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Odell Beckham

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos

DEN -3.5, O/U 44

Pace and playcalling

The pace of this game won’t blow people away and they’ll likely finish with an average play volume, as the Raiders are 12th and the Broncos are 29th in neutral pace. This game does offer a bevy of passing attempts. Denver is third (64.4%) in neutral passing rate, followed immediately by Las Vegas at fourth (63.7%). 

Injuries

Las Vegas

• Josh Jacobs (RB) – (Illness – / DNP / LP) – Status: No Designation

Denver

• Melvin Gordon (RB) – (Hip – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Raiders

This week, there’s no reason to deal with Derek Carr’s wide range of outcomes against a Denver pass defense ranked 13th in DVOA. Denver has allowed the lowest adjusted completion rate and sixth-lowest yards per attempt. 

This offense is nearly a full fade for me, to be perfectly honest, against a defense that has relinquished the third-lowest yards per play (5.0) and the second-lowest rate of drive ending in a score. 

Denver ranks eighth, fourth and ninth in adjusted line yards, second-level yards and open-field yards allowed. If Josh Jacobs plays, it’s going to be tough sledding all day. Darren Waller ranks first in target share (24%), and weighted opportunity amongst tight ends also gets a difficult matchup. Denver ranks eighth in DVOA against tight ends. They have allowed the fourth-lowest receiving yardage total (152) and zero touchdowns to the position. 

The only player that I have a mild interest in is Henry Ruggs again. Ruggs has a 15% target share and is second on the team in deep targets (eight). He’ll run around half of his routes against Kyle Fuller, who is having a tough time in Denver. The Broncos rank second in DVOA against short passing, but they are 18th against deep passing, and part of the reason why is Fuller. Fuller is allowing a 64.3% catch rate and 124.4 passer rating in coverage. 

Broncos

Teddy Bridgewater simply does not have the ceiling or floor to ever consider in DFS despite how well he has played for most of this season. This year he has maxed out with a 21-point fantasy performance while also cratering with an 11-point stinker (not even counting the game he left with a concussion). The pace crushes whatever promise his passing rate could offer. 

This matchup screams to play a running back against. The Raiders rank 25th and 22nd in second-level and open-field yards allowed. They are 29th in explosive run rate allowed. The problem is Denver continues to be a razor thin running back by committee where the volume of both backs is capped by a molasses-like offensive pace. 

Full season usage

If you’re looking to late swap Sunday, a lowly rostered Raiders-Broncos mini-stack makes sense. Ruggs is your Raider. On the Broncos side, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant each make sense. Sutton has seen a 23.6% target share and an absurd 42% air yard market share. He’ll run just over half of his routes against Amik Robertson (5-foot-9, 183 pounds), who has allowed a 76.9% catch rate and 131.1 passer rating. 

Noah Fant’s 18% target share and 22% red-zone target share face off against a Raiders defense ranked 25th in DVOA against the tight end position. Las Vegas is 10th (29) and eighth (three) in receptions and receiving touchdowns allowed to the position. 

DFS Plays

Core plays: N/A
GPP only: Henry Ruggs, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant

Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots

DAL -3.5, O/U 50.5

Pace and playcalling

This is another middling pace game — Dallas is sixth, but New England is 20th in pace in neutral situations. Dallas continues their run-centric ways calling rushing plays on 53.3% (second-highest) of their snaps in one score games since Week 2. Oddly enough, New England has been the pass-happy squad throwing on 63.6% (fifth) of plays in neutral game scripts. 

Injuries

Dallas

• Dorance Armstrong (DE) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Trevon Diggs (CB) – (Ankle – DNP / DNP / DNP) – Status: Questionable
• Ezekiel Elliott (RB) – (Ribs – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Randy Gregory (DE) – (Knee – LP / LP / ) – Status: Questionable
• Tyron Smith (T) – (Ankle –  / LP / DNP) – Status: Questionable

New England

• Damien Harris (RB) – (Ribs – DNP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Jonathan Jones (CB) – (Ankle – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Shaq Mason (OL) – (Abdomen – DNP / LP / DNP) – Status: OUT
• Jalen Mills (CB) – (Ankle – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable
• Ronnie Perkins (LB) – (Ankle – LP / LP / LP) – Status: Questionable

Cowboys

With the Cowboys’ infatuation with running the ball, Dak Prescott isn’t remotely close to making the GPP player pool. Prescott has been living off his career-high 7.9% passing touchdown rate. HIs 26.8 pass attempts and 241.3 passing yards per game over his last four weeks won’t get it done in tournaments. New England is a difficult foe, ranking eighth in pass defense DVOA, allowing the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate. 

Looking at these numbers for the Dallas backfield, it’s hilarious that many thought Ezekiel Elliott wasn’t the lead back for the Cowboys after the Tampa Bay game. Tony Pollard truthers don’t want to see it, but Elliott is by all accounts the main squeeze still in big D. The Dallas offensive line is mauling opponents ranking top three in adjusted line yards, second-level yards, and open field yards. The Patriots are not a good matchup on paper, but with how well Elliott is playing (third in evaded tackles, sixth in breakaway runs), that can be taken with a grain of salt. The Patriots have allowed the 11th lowest yards after contact per attempt and gash rate. They rank 15th and 10th in second-level and open-field yards allowed. These are not insurmountable figures for Elliott. While Elliott’s only seen a 6.7% target share, this is a good matchup for him to roll up receptions against a defense ranked 30th versus receiving backs. 

Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are near equals in terms of target shares. Cooper has had the edge in end zone target rate (36%) and red zone looks (29%) over Lamb. Cooper will draw a difficult shadow matchup per our Shadow Index below. J.C. Jackson could follow Cooper on 90% plus routes. Jackson has been tough overall, allowing a 60.6% catch rate and 74.9 passer rating. 

*Update: Jalen Mills looks likely to play this week.*

CeeDee Lamb is in play if Jalen Mills is out again this week. In Week 5, his replacement Joejuan Williams was torched for a 158.3 passer rating. Williams has been burnable all season, allowing an 85.7% catch rate and 158.3 passer rating in coverage. If Mills plays, Lamb is off the board. Mills has been similarly stout allowing a 50% catch rate and 67.2 passer rating. 

Despite his 19% target share and 14% red zone target share, I’m not playing Dalton Schultz this week. New England is seventh in DVOA against the tight end position. They have relinquished only 11 receptions and 106 receiving yards (32nd) to the position this season. 

Patriots

Mac Jones hasn’t scored more than 16 fantasy points in any game, so he’s an easy no for DFS this week. His surprising passing rate allows to look to New England for a mini stack partner with Elliott. 

I’m not playing the New England running back roulette in this matchup. Even if Damien Harris is out and it’s the Rhamondre Stevenson or J.J. Taylor show. The Cowboys are 11th in second-level yards and are allowing the eighth-lowest explosive run rate. They have also been stout against running backs in the passing game (sixth in DVOA). 

Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry jump off the page. Meyers has seen a 23.7% target share and 32.5% air yard market share. He’ll match up with Anthony Brown (around 23% of routes) and Jourdan Lewis (around 59%). Brown has allowed a 59.1% catch rate and 84.3 passer rating. Lewis has given up a 63.6% catch rate and 82.8 passer rating. Meyers is the volume play. 

Henry is the match up play. Henry has quietly run the 12th-most routes at the tight end position. He’s seen a 13% target share (Jonnu Smith, 12%) and 12% of the first read looks (Smith, 10%). Smith has six red-zone targets, but Henry has been active there as well with three. Dallas is ranked 31st in DVOA against the tight end position allowing the eighth-most receiving yards (330). 

DFS Plays

Core plays: N/A
GPP only: Ezekiel Elliott, Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Henry, CeeDee Lamb (if Mills is out)

Core DFS Plays

Quarterback

• Joe Burrow
• Matthew Stafford
• Patrick Mahomes
• Lamar Jackson
• Justin Herbert

Running Back

• Austin Ekeler
• Chuba Hubbard
• Kareem Hunt
• Dalvin Cook
• Khalil Herbert
• Jonathan Taylor
• Darrell Henderson
• Darrel Williams

Wide Receiver

High-priced:

• Davante Adams
• Cooper Kupp
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Keenan Allen

Mid-priced:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Mecole Hardman (if Hill is out)
• Darnell Mooney

Tight End

• Travis Kelce
• Ricky Seals-Jones
• Mark Andrews

Favorite GPP Stacks

• Cincinnati Bengals
• Los Angeles Rams
• Baltimore Ravens
• Los Angeles Chargers
• Kansas City Chiefs
• Washington Football Team