The Best Pick in Each First-Round Draft Slot, 2015-2024

There’s nothing special about being, say, the 11^th overall pick in the NFL Draft, as opposed to the 10^th or the 12^th. But it’s still fun to look at them as a group. For example, in the last decade, 14 of 20 players who have gone first or second overall have been quarterbacks.

Maybe that one’s not surprising, quarterbacks go early. But how about this: There hasn’t been an offensive player taken 30^th overall since A.J. Jenkins, back in 2012. Or: There was no offensive skill player taken 11^th overall between 2006 (Jay Cutler) and 2021 (Justin Fields).

None of that matters. But it’s fun to group things, and “pick taken” is a very obvious group.

Today, with the 2025 NFL Draft only a few days away, I’m looking at the players taken at each draft slot in the first round over the last 10 years. Sometimes, they’re all good. Sometimes, they’re mostly bad. I’ll identify the best three picks for each draft slot. If nothing else, it’ll give you an idea of the realistic ceiling available for your favorite team, wherever they happen to be picking in Thursday’s draft.

(As always, this is about the actual pick made, not necessarily the resources used to acquire it. The Panthers get no penalty for having traded massive resources for Bryce Young, for example. But there is consideration for who a team might have passed on to get a specific player.)

(Oh, and the teams are all listed under their current moniker. I’m not bothering with “OAK” and “SDC” and “STL.”)

Best First-Round Pick by NFL Draft Slot, 2015-2024

First Overall

Best Pick: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, 2020

It’s “Pick your favorite quarterback” here, but Joe Burrow is the only first overall pick in the last decade with a top-five MVP finish on his resume, the only one realistically under consideration for “best quarterback in football.” A lot of teams here would probably be fine if they had to make their pick again, but the Bengals are happiest.

Second-Best Pick: Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns, 2017

Quarterback is the most influential position in football, but a top-flight defensive end is about as close as it gets otherwise. So give me Garrett — maybe the best defensive player in football — over the second-tier quarterbacks taken first overall.

Third-Best Pick: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams, 2016

This was the toughest choice here. Kyler Murray has been a fantasy star. Baker Mayfield broke the Browns’ no-postseason streak and has shined in Tampa. Trevor Lawrence might have come up short of expectations (so far), but he’s been good in Jacksonville. But give me Goff, who started about as poorly as a player could as a rookie but eventually took the Rams to a Super Bowl and the Lions to a 1 seed.

Second Overall

Best Pick: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders, 2024

There is some risk in giving the nod to Daniels off a dominant rookie year right after we saw C.J. Stroud going from star rookie to disappointing sophomore, but it is true that there’s no disappointment on Daniels’ resume so far. He took a perennial loser to the Conference Championship game.

Second-Best Pick: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans, 2023

A year ago, it looked like Stroud would rival some of the players taken first overall, but after a disappointing second year, it’s time to rethink that. He’s still the best pick in this group after Daniels, though.

Third-Best Pick: Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers, 2019

It comes down to the veteran stature of Nick Bosa vs. the new hotness of Aidan Hutchinson. And to that I say…

Third Overall

Best Pick: Joey Bosa, Los Angeles Chargers, 2016

Joey might come up a bit short of his brother Nick in overall value, but the Chargers are happy with the nine years they got out of him, especially considering some of the other land mines teams waded into at third overall in the last 10 years.

Second-Best Pick: Quinnen Williams, New York Jets, 2019

The Jets had one of the worst third overall picks in 2018’s selection of Sam Darnold, but they followed that up a year later with one of the best in Williams, a three-time Pro Bowler. He’s anchored the Jets defense for six years now.

Third-Best Pick: Derek Stingley Jr., Houston Texans, 2022

I could have gone with any of the last three picks for this slot. Drake Maye might prove to be the best pick within another year or so, but his resume is still light. Will Anderson Jr. won Defensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2023. But give me Stingley, who might be the best cornerback in football, or close to it. If you disagree … I won’t argue.

Fourth Overall

Best Pick: Sauce Gardner, New York Jets, 2022

It wasn’t long ago I’d have said Gardner, not Derek Stingley Jr., might be the best cornerback in football, and he’s still in the conversation, even after a relatively down 2024.

Second-Best Pick: Amari Cooper, Las Vegas Raiders, 2015

Maybe Amari Cooper has never been a top-five NFL wide receiver, but he has played 10 NFL seasons and topped 1,000 yards in seven of them, and he’s seventh in receiver PPR scoring since entering the league. He’s still looking for a job for next season, so we’ll see how much he adds from here, but that’s a more than solid 10-year run.

Third-Best Pick: Denzel Ward, Cleveland Browns, 2024

The fourth overall pick has actually had way more land mines than you’d expect. The only real contenders here were four-time Pro Bowler Ward; Ezekiel Elliott, who was great for a while but was picked right ahead of some much better options; and Marvin Harrison Jr., who still offers great potential but has to go down as a bit of a disappointment in Year 1.

Fifth Overall

Best Pick: Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals, 2021

Fifth overall has had several solid picks, but Chase is the runaway winner here, currently second in NFL history in receiving yards per game (87.5) and WR3 in PPR scoring since entering the league. He got a mega-monster extension this offseason and earned it.

Second-Best Pick: Jalen Ramsey, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2016

Nine years, seven Pro Bowls, three first-team All Pros. The years he didn’t get either nod were his rookie year (when he did finish second in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting) and last year, when he was 30 years old. No shame in either of those.

Third-Best Pick: Brandon Scherff, Washington Commanders, 2015

Bradley Chubb could have been the choice. Devon Witherspoon could have been the choice. But I’ll take Scherff, who had a very strong run with Washington (five Pro Bowls, one All Pro in seven years) as a line anchor. Maybe not the most famous pick, but a very good one.

Sixth Overall

Best Pick: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, 2019

Herbert isn’t in the upper tier of quarterbacks right now, but he’s at least sniffed that level a few different times, and he certainly has that ability. Definitely a winning pick here.

Second-Best Pick: Quenton Nelson, Indianapolis Colts, 2018

The highest-drafted guard since … well, since Brandon Scherff in 2015, those are the only two guards taken in the top six of the draft this century. I guess when a team decides a guard is worth a high pick, that guard is really worth a high pick.

Third-Best Pick: Malik Nabers, New York Giants, 2024

Nabers was a star right from the jump, the PPR WR1 in fantasy through his first month when players usually take time to adjust to the NFL. There are some honorable mentions here (Ronnie Stanley in particular), but Nabers starred right away, and within a couple years he could rise to second or even first on this list.

Seventh Overall

Best Pick: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, 2018

Hey, you got maybe the second-best quarterback in football at seven. That’s fun.

Second-Best Pick: Penei Sewell, Detroit Lions, 2021

The anchor on maybe the best offensive line in football, the team that relies on its line as much as any team outside of Philadelphia. Hard to argue against this pick.

Third-Best Pick: Josh Hines-Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2019

It remains hilarious to me that two guys named Josh Allen were both taken seventh overall, one year apart, and both have turned out to be great. Yes, the Jaguar one added “Hines-“ to his name later, but at the time, it was true.

Eighth Overall

Best Pick: Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers, 2017

This pick has gone to the Falcons four times, the NFC South six times in the last decade. That doesn’t mean much, but it’s wild. And the best pick was one that went to that division, because while eighth is a high price for a running back and he has dealt with injuries, no one’s been better than McCaffrey when healthy.

Second-Best Pick: Jack Conklin, Tennessee Titans, 2016

Conklin’s greatness hasn’t been steady over his career, but when he hit his peak he was one of the best tackles in the league. The eighth pick has had a bunch of “good-not-great” picks, so maybe Conklin isn’t as good as some of the other picks above and below, but there’s no shame here.

Third-Best Pick: Roquan Smith, Chicago Bears, 2018

The Bears themselves are probably a little disappointed in this pick, given Smith only lasted 4.5 years in Chicago and didn’t start making the Pro Bowl or first-team All Pro until after he left. But now he’s been a Raven for 2.5 years and made three Pro Bowls and three first-team All Pros. For the team who drafted him, it’s OK, not great. For the NFL, it’s a hit.

Ninth Overall

Best Pick: Pat Surtain II, Denver Broncos, 2021

Two cornerbacks have won Defensive Player of the Year since 2010, and the Broncos got one of them at ninth overall in 2021 (Stephon Gilmore in 2019 is the other). Surtain has been a superstar since entering the league.

Second-Best Pick: Jalen Carter, Philadelphia Eagles, 2023

Exactly why Carter made it to ninth when there was some early talk he could go first overall is a separate (and very sad) story, but the Eagles have gotten plenty of value out of him, with Carter finishing second in DROY voting in 2023 and earning a second-team All Pro nod in 2024.

Third-Best Pick: Leonard Floyd, Chicago Bears, 2016

There’s not a great No. 3 here. I’ll take Floyd, who after missing a few games early in his career has played all 116 games the last seven years. He’s been bouncing around the last few years, from the Bears to the Rams to the Bills to the 49ers, but his 20s were a very strong time.

10^th Overall

Best Pick: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, 2017

Easiest call of the exercise? Getting a two-time MVP, three-time Super Bowl champion, five-time AFC champion, maybe the best quarterback ever would be the best pick even if it took two straight first overall draft picks to get. Getting him 10^th is the haul of a lifetime.

Second-Best Pick: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles, 2021

Maybe Smith needed A.J. Brown to really unlock him, but he’s been a star either way. If you just isolate the three years Smith and Garrett Wilson (the No. 10 pick the next year) have both been in the league, Wilson has more yards (3,249-3,095), but Smith crushes him in touchdowns (22-14) and easily wins in PPR points (437.6-401.8).

Third-Best Pick: Garrett Wilson, New York Jets, 2022

Of course, there’s no shame in Wilson’s game, either. He’s topped 1,000 yards in all three of his NFL seasons despite having a good NFL quarterback for at most one of those years. If the Jets can ever get the QB position figured out, there’s room for Wilson to take a whole new step.

11^th Overall

Best Pick: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins, 2018

Fitzpatrick has been one of the best safeties in the game basically since Day 1, it’s just that the Dolphins decided to rebuild only 18 games into his Miami tenure, so he’s done most of his damage for a team other than the one that drafted him. Still, the 11^th overall pick yielded a five-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All Pro in seven years.

Second-Best Pick: Marshon Lattimore, New Orleans Saints, 2017

It’s a sad truth of a pro athlete that the last memories we have of them are almost always the ones where they looked the worst, because Father Time catches up with everyone. Marshon Lattimore was not only really good at his peak, he was fun along the way. Yeah, he was pretty terrible in the playoffs for the Commanders last year after being traded. Don’t remember that part. Remember the peak.

Third-Best Pick: Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints, 2022

Here’s hoping Olave’s concussion issues don’t ruin what started out as a very promising career. He topped 1,000 yards each of his first two seasons before injury limited him to eight games and 400 yards last year. But he was a big success up to that point.

12^th Overall

Best Pick: Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys, 2021

The Cowboys are going to extend Parsons and pay him a whole whole bunch of money for the privilege of doing so. But they’re going to have to, because Parsons has been one of the best defensive players in the league basically from Day 1.

Second-Best Pick: Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos, 2024

It’s rare that the fifth quarterback in the draft goes off the board as early as 12^th. It’s even rarer that he’s really good right away. There were question marks about Nix entering the league, and he answered most of them pretty emphatically in Year 1, taking the Broncos to the playoffs.

Third-Best Pick: Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans, 2017

Loathe as I am to do it, I have to give Watson the credit of the early part of his career here. He was fantastic as a Texan before … well, you know, everything, and while the latter half has been just about the biggest disaster you could imagine, the first half still counts. Tell a team they can have one of the best quarterbacks in the game for 3-4 years and then things fall apart (without discussing how they fell apart, because that’s unpleasant), and they’d take it. (If picking Watson here is too squicky — it is, but I felt like I had to — then we can go with 2023’s Jahmyr Gibbs or 2018’s Vita Vea instead.)

13^th Overall

Best Pick: Tristan Wirfs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2020

Five years in, and Wirfs has made first-team All Pro twice … at two different positions. He made it in 2021 as the right tackle and then in 2024 as the left tackle. That’s wild. It’s too early to call him a Hall of Famer, except … is it?

Second-Best Pick: Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders, 2024

Tight ends take a while to develop. Taking a tight end early is a waste of resources. You can’t beat what Puka Nacua did as a rookie from a sheer “number of receptions” standpoint. All things that we thought were true a year ago, all things that Brock Bowers looked at and laughed.

Third-Best Pick: Laremy Tunsil, Miami Dolphins, 2016

Tunsil would have gone higher on draft night if not for that weird gas mask thing. As it was, he was good as a Dolphin, but his career took off once he got traded to the Texans, making five of the next six Pro Bowls.

14^th Overall

Best Pick: Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens, 2022

If it was too early to try to call Tristan Wirfs a Hall of Famer a few paragraphs ago, it’s way too early to say it for Hamilton. That said, he’s certainly building a resume, probably the best safety in the league the last two years.

Second-Best Pick: Chris Lindstrom, Atlanta Falcons, 2019

This is the only other clear hit pick out of this slot in the last 10 years. Lindstrom’s been a starter for the Falcons ever since entering the league outside of a stint on injured reserve as a rookie. He’s played 83 of a possible 84 games since that rookie year, making the last three Pro Bowls.

Third-Best Pick: DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins, 2015

…I guess? Parker did have that one monster 2019 season (1,202 yards, 9 touchdowns), even if he was relatively pedestrian the rest of his career. But “relatively pedestrian” describes most of our recent 14^th overall picks.

15^th Overall

Best Pick: Kolton Miller, Las Vegas Raiders, 2018

The Miller pick was something of a punchline his first couple of seasons. But then he developed, and while he’s still not a top-of-the-line tackle, he’s firmly above average, and that’s good.

Second-Best Pick: Melvin Gordon III, Los Angeles Chargers, 2015

After a quasi-disastrous rookie season in 2015, Gordon showed his potential, averaging over 1,450 scrimmage yards and 12.7 touchdowns a year over the next three. It didn’t last — he battled injury his last year with the Chargers and didn’t last long as a Bronco — but the highs were very high.

Third-Best Pick: Laiatu Latu, Indianapolis Colts, 2024

Latu wasn’t a star as a rookie by any means, but he played over 600 snaps and produced a solid 71.5 PFF grade, and … well, the rest of our candidates have been worse.

16^th Overall

Best Pick: Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore Ravens, 2017

Interceptions are a young man’s game. Since Humphrey entered the league, there have been 13 individual seasons where a player has more than 6 picks, and they were all 27 or younger. Which makes Humphrey’s 6-INT season as a 28-year-old particularly impressive. And it was his second first-team All Pro.

Second-Best Pick: Taylor Decker, Detroit Lions, 2016

If you thought I was impressed by a 28-year-old getting 6 interceptions, how about a 31-year-old tackle making his first Pro Bowl? That’s what Decker did last year. He also has a career 3-15-2 line as a receiver on 4 targets, so that’s nice.  

Third-Best Pick: Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers, 2019

It felt like Burns was discussed as a trade piece about as long as he was a Panther. The Rams were going to give their first-rounders until the end of time for him, apparently. The Giants finally landed him, where he played … fine in 2024. Good player. But the trade talks were the most exciting thing about him.

17^th Overall

Best Pick: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys, 2020

Only five times in NFL history has a player had more catches in a season than CeeDee Lamb’s 135 in 2023, and while that’s almost certain to go down as his career year, he’s still averaging 105.5 receptions, 1,351 yards and 8.3 touchdowns across the last four years. Even with some very decent picks at No. 17, he stands above the rest.

Second-Best Pick: Derwin James Jr., Los Angeles Chargers, 2018

James falling to 17^th overall was pretty universally a surprise (Mel Kiper Jr. had him as his No. 4 prospect, for example), and it looked foolish quickly, with James making first-team All Pro as a rookie. Other than some injury years, he’s never really looked back.

Third-Best Pick: Dexter Lawrence II, New York Giants, 2019

If you want to flip Lawrence and James, I won’t argue very hard. He’s been a defensive stud who has gotten better as his carer has gone on, even on the fringe of the Defensive Player of the Year conversation last year before getting hurt.

18^th Overall

Best Pick: Marcus Peters, Kansas City Chiefs, 2015

Peters ended his career after the 2023 season with 7 career pick-6’s. That’s two more than anyone else has had since Peters entered the league. He won Defensive Rookie of the Year and made two first-team All Pros. Easy pick.

Second-Best Pick: Jaire Alexander, Green Bay Packers, 2018

Injuries have started to pick at Alexander a bit — he was limited to seven games a year in 2023 and 2024, plus only four in 2021 — but when he’s healthy he’s still a star and one of the best pieces of the Green Bay defense.

Third-Best Pick: Ryan Kelly, Indianapolis Colts, 2016

Something happened to the Colts’ offensive line in 2022 when they all kind of looked bad at once. But other than that, Kelly came into the league good, was good for a long time, had a blip in 2022, and bounced back again. He’s in Minnesota now, and just speaking as a Colts fan, that’s sad.

19^th Overall

Best Pick: Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee Titans, 2019

Simmons took over as the full-time starter in his second year in Tennessee and hasn’t looked back, with three Pro Bowls in the last four years. He’s the longest-tenured player on the Titans roster for a reason — the new regime recognized him as the best holdover from the old one.

Second-Best Pick: Jared Verse, Los Angeles Rams, 2024

No, Verse isn’t Aaron Donald, and he won’t be. But he’s about the best replacement the Rams could have reasonably hoped for, and he coasted to the Defensive Rookie of the Year award.

Third-Best Pick: Leighton Vander Esch, Dallas Cowboys, 2018

Vander Esch’s career got cut short because of neck issues, but he was pretty good when he could stay on the field. And truth be told, there’s not a lot for 1.19 to write home about.

20^th Overall

Best Pick: Frank Ragnow, Detroit Lions, 2018

“I can’t decide if I’m high on this lineman who was just drafted.” “The Lions took him.” “Oh, he’ll be great.”

Second-Best Pick: Garett Bolles, Denver Broncos, 2017

Bolles wasn’t a superstar right out of the gate, but he’s built himself into a definite asset. Now, he’s the anchor on one of the league’s best offensive lines.

Third-Best Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks, 2023

JSN certainly wouldn’t have been the pick a year ago, but he had a massive Year 2 breakout, and now he’s entering 2025 as the clear WR1 in Seattle.

21^st Overall

Best Pick: Trent McDuffie, Kansas City Chiefs, 2022

McDuffie had his coming-out party in 2023, making the first-team All Pro en route to a Super Bowl title. And he came back with an excellent 2024 as well.

Second-Best Pick: Chop Robinson, Miami Dolphins, 2024

Robinson only started one game as a rookie, but he got plenty of playing time and rode that to a very solid PFF grade and a fifth-place finish in DRoY voting.

Third-Best Pick: William Fuller V, Houston Texans, 2016

The main point here is that 21^st hasn’t had a great showing in the last decade. But Fuller did have plenty of flashes, with 7 touchdowns in 2017 and 8 in 2020. His career didn’t last long, but the high points were there.

22^nd Overall

Best Pick: Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings, 2020

Oh, no big deal, just maybe the best receiver in football outside of the top 20. Must be nice.

Second-Best Pick: Bud Dupree, Pittsburgh Steelers, 2015

Sometimes, a team doesn’t find a star with what is a “good” pick. A good pick can just be a good who is reliable for a long time. And Dupree was a locked-in part of the Steelers defense for six years and then the Titans for two. He has entered something of a journeyman stage the last couple years, but he’s had a good run as a successful pick.

Third-Best Pick: Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens, 2023

Did Flowers deserve a Pro Bowl nod last year? Probably not, given he made it over (among others) Brian Thomas Jr., who ultimately made the team because Flowers opted out. But he does have over 1,900 yards in two seasons despite working in a run-first offense, and that’s pretty good.

23^rd Overall

Best Pick: Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars, 2024

Last year’s rookie receiver class is going to go down as an excellent one. Malik Nabers was a superstar right away. Ladd McConkey thrived as a second-rounder. There’s still plenty of optimism for guys like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze. But the best of the bunch last year was Thomas, who had a little lull in the middle of the season but was otherwise a big star all year.

Second-Best Pick: Christian Darrisaw, Minnesota Vikings, 2021

Darrisaw has been an anchor on the Vikings’ offensive line for four years, right up until he tore his ACL last year and everyone got scared it would spell doom. It didn’t (I guess; Sam Darnold did have some of his worst games after Darrisaw’s injury, but not immediately after), but the fact that everyone was that worried for one lineman tells a lot.

Third-Best Pick: Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings, 2023

Two years in, Addison has 1,786 yards and 19 touchdowns, and that’s despite spending most of his time as the clear No. 2 behind one of the league’s true target hogs and spending a lot of his rookie season with a very questionable quarterback situation. No complaints.

24^th Overall

Best Pick: DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers, 2018

Moore is pretty destined to be a second-tier receiver, never competing for the best receivers in the league. But he’s one hell of a second-tier receiver, with four 1,000-yard seasons and more touchdown upside the last few years than he showed early in his career.

Second-Best Pick: Tyler Smith, Dallas Cowboys, 2022

Turns out Tyler Smith has more in common than former teammate Tyron Smith than 70% of their names. Maybe Tyler is step down from Tyron, but he’s made two Pro Bowls in three years, so he’s a fine heir.

Third-Best Pick: Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders, 2019

Jacobs has proved people wrong several times. We thought the Raiders gave up on him before 2022, and instead put up 1,653 yards and made the first-team All Pro. When we saw the terms of his Packers deal (“Oh, they can get out after one year?”), there was more concern, and he responded with 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns.

25^th Overall

Best Pick: Tyler Linderbaum, Baltimore Ravens, 2022

There was some concern about the Baltimore offensive line heading into the 2022 draft, especially considering they didn’t pick until 25^th overall. So what did they do? They just grabbed a guy who has missed two games in three years, has made two Pro Bowls and was a top-five center in PFF grading last year.

Second-Best Pick: Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers, 2020

Aiyuk broke out to the upper level among receivers in 2022-2023, overtaking Deebo Samuel for WR1 in San Francisco and totaling 2,357 yards and 15 touchdowns. He started slow last year and tore his ACL, so we’ll see how he looks when he’s healthy, but he can be a heck of a weapon at his peak.

Third-Best Pick: Shaq Thompson, Carolina Panthers, 2015

After Linderbaum and Aiyuk, there’s not a clear winner here. Marquise Brown might have had the highest highs, but Thompson gave the Panthers eight years as a starter and two more injury-filled seasons to cap it off, and that’s a very strong run.

26^th Overall

Best Pick: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers, 2020

If you buy into the narrative that the Love selection was what motivated Aaron Rodgers to win back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021, this pick is even better. But even without that, the Packers found a quarterback who warranted a massive extension near the end of the first round, who has thrown 57 touchdowns in 42 games the last two years.

Second-Best Pick: Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons, 2018

Ridley’s Falcons tenure ended unfortunately, with a weird 2021 season followed by a yearlong suspension. But before that, he scored 36 touchdowns and topped 3,000 yards in his first three years, and he’s topped 1,000 again for each of the Jaguars and Titans the last two years since his suspension.

Third-Best Pick: Montez Sweat, Washington Commanders, 2019

Sweat’s 2023 will likely go down as his career year, when he managed to lead the Commanders and Bears in sacks in the same year. But Sweat is top 20 in the NFL in sacks since entering the league. He’s been good.

27^th Overall

Best Pick: Kenny Clark, Green Bay Packers, 2016

Clark has played 140 of a possible 148 games in his career, including 67 of 68 the last four years. He has made three Pro Bowls. And the Packers gave him a three-year extension a year ago, so he’s not going anywhere yet.

Second-Best Pick: Tre’Davious White, Buffalo Bills, 2017

Injuries have kind of wrecked the second half of White’s career, but for a bit early on, he was one of the best corners in the game, maybe the single best in 2019. We’ll see if he can recapture some of that now that he’s back in Buffalo.

Third-Best Pick: Byron Jones, Dallas Cowboys, 2015

Speaking of corners who were excellent but only for a little while, Jones was an absolute stud for his last couple of years in Dallas. It largely fell apart once he got to Miami, but his peak was excellent.

28^th Overall

Best Pick: Patrick Queen, Baltimore Ravens, 2020

Queen’s played (and started) every game since entering the league, he’s made two Pro Bowls, and he’s the elusive player who has thrived for both the Ravens and Steelers. Nice run.

Second-Best Pick: Laken Tomlinson, Detroit Lions, 2015

Tomlinson is probably the worst early-drafted lineman selected by the Lions in the last decade, and that’s funny, because he’s played 163 of 164 possible games in his career and made the Pro Bowl in 2021. But the downside for Detroit is that he only lasted two years there before being traded to San Francisco. And all the Lions got for that was the trade chip they used to acquire Damon Harrison

Third-Best Pick: Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs, 2024

The later you get in the first round, the harder it is to find true home-run picks. So I’ll settle for Worthy, who wasn’t a star in his debut year but showed enough that we can call it a win of a pick, even if it’s not an overwhelming one.

29^th Overall

Best Pick: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns, 2017

Njoku followed the typical, pre-Brock Bowers template for a tight end. He struggled to start his career, not topping 650 yards or 4 touchdowns in a season until his seventh season in the league. But he set career highs across the board in 2023 and bounced back with target and reception numbers in 2024 that beat anything he offered before 2023. It took a bit, but he got there.

Second-Best Pick: L.J. Collier, Seattle Seahawks, 2019

Collier wasn’t a star for the Seahawks, but he had his moments for the team as a “good enough” player during his four years there, and he’s been a starter for the Cardinals since.

Third-Best Pick: Eric Stokes, Green Bay Packers, 2021

Real talk: It’s very hard to find a third-best pick at 1.29. Stokes looked good as a rookie, but he’s dropped off a lot since. But unless you’re particularly high on Cole Strange or only-played-one-season Tyler Guyton, Stokes is the choice.

30^th Overall

Best Pick: T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers, 2017

After a bunch of picks where the “best pick” has been “Well, he’s been OK I guess,” here we have a player who could be in conversation for best pick at 1.01 if he had been taken there. Watt’s been arguably the best defensive player in the league more or less since he came into the league — he leads the league in sacks since debuting at 108.5, and only Myles Garrett (102.5) is less than 25 away from him.

Second-Best Pick: Greg Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, 2021

Rousseau’s been a full-time player from the jump, starting 62 of 67 possible games in his four years. He put up an 83.1 overall PFF grade last year, and his performance so far was enough to earn him a four-year extension this offseason.

Third-Best Pick: Nolan Smith Jr., Philadelphia Eagles, 2023

Oh look, a Georgia defensive player thriving as an Eagle. Smith was only a part-timer in 2023, and while his playing time rose to near-starter level in 2024 (he played 52.2% of the team’s defensive snaps), his biggest impact was in the postseason, when he tallied 4 sacks on the way to the Eagles’ Super Bowl title. That’s huge.

31^st Overall

Best Pick: Kaleb McGary, Atlanta Falcons, 2019

McGary has no major awards on his shelf, but he’s played 93 of a possible 100 games as the Falcons’ right tackle and put up a solid PFF grade the entire time. The team didn’t actually pick up his fifth-year option heading into 2022, but then he played well enough to get a three-year extension the next offseason anyway.

Second-Best Pick: Odafe Oweh, Baltimore Ravens, 2021

Oweh had his best season in 2024, nearly doubling his career sack total (10 after entering the year with 13). And of course, his little brother plays for Kentucky basketball, which counts for a whole lot (no, I’m not biased at all here (UK class of 2004)).

Third-Best Pick: Ricky Pearsall, San Francisco 49ers, 2024

Pearsall only really got half a season as a rookie after dealing with a preseason gunshot wound, and he had a lull in the middle of that were he had 1 reception on 5 targets for 5 yards over the snap of four games Weeks 11-14. But also had weeks as the PPR WR7 (Week 17), WR13 (Week 10) and WR14 (Week 18), topping 17 PPR points in each.

32^nd Overall

*No 32^nd pick in the first round because an earlier pick was forfeited.

Best Pick: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, 2018

Another one of the easiest calls of the exercise. Jackson has two MVPs and could easily have a third and is already the all-time leader in quarterback rushing yards and has two seasons of 36-plus passing touchdowns. All right then.

Second-Best Pick: Ryan Ramczyk, New Orleans Saints, 2017

Injuries forced Ramczyk’s retirement last week, but he was a stud before that, making a first-team All Pro and two second teams. He played 63 of a possible 64 games in his first four years and was still the primary starter until he missed 2024 to injury.

Third-Best Pick: Malcom Brown, New England Patriots, 2015

Once you get past Jackson and Ramczyk this gets tough, but then those two are better than most of the late-first-round picks have. There’s no shame in Brown’s career, with 97 starts over seven years, at least 12 in every season, and 106 of a possible 113 games played in his career. He made the PFWA All-Rookie Team in 2015 and was a key starter on two Super Bowl winners.