MSG Week 1 DFS Breakdown

Welcome to “The Breakdown,” a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty. 

For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning. 

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 1. 

#FTNDaily 

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

NYJ +6.5. O/U: 39.5
NYJ: 16 | BUF: 23.5

Weather

Potential winds at 15-20+ MPH. Scattered showers possible as well. I don’t worry much about rain or light snow, but wind is proven to affect passing. I think this is magnified when you throw in two teams with young/volatile QBs. I will update on Sunday a.m. per the usual. 

Pace and play-calling

These teams averaged 26 combined points in their two matchups last year. That said, these games can produce “diamonds in the rough,” so we need to do our due diligence. 

Buffalo doesn’t play as slow as you might think, finishing 11th in neutral pace. They played at one speed, around 27 seconds per play, and then cranked it up when trailing (24 per play). The issue is the pass/rush rate, which is the seventh-highest overall and 12th in neutral situations (43%), which goes up to 57% when they get a lead of at least three. The Jets played at about league-average pace as well as their run/pass splits. The problem with NYJ was efficiency, not tempo. Finishing with a league-worst 4.6 yards per play (28th overall pass DVOA) — however, they improved to 18th from Week 10 on, which correlates to Sam Darnold’s health (7.59 adjusted YPA/9th). 

Jets

Jets used the No. 11 pick on OT Mekhi Becton, who is slated to start at RG. They also added another offensive tackle in Cameron Clark, and brought in OT George Fant, G Greg Van Roten, C Connor McGovern. Clearly, they saw the inconsistent tape of Sam Darnold under pressure and decided to invest in some protection. I am looking forward to watching this offense, as I do think the hate has gone a bit far. People talk about this team like it won two games last year, but it was competitive with Darnold under center as you can see below via our NFL Splits tool. 

Even with the slight glimmer of hope for the future, this is not a spot we run out Darnold in DFS. Only New England and Baltimore allowed less production to QBs last year, which is even more magnified in Buffalo. 

His pass-catchers could have some value, as the distribution of targets should be concentrated into a few guys. Jamison Crowder (hamstring, practiced in full) averaged 8.33 targets per game in this matchup last year, including a 17-target outburst in Week 1. I am sure many will look to that performance as a reason to play Crowder here, but they even had less to work with in that game so to expect 17 targets — or even double-digit — is very optimistic. 

Christopher Herndon is getting attention this week on DK at $3.3k. This issue is Buffalo covered all TEs so well last season in this scheme (top-three last two seasons in nearly every important stat against TEs). As much as talent matters, I have found a team’s scheme is critical in having success against the TE (see the Arizona Cardinals). I like Herndon in best ball drafts, but I can’t eat this chalk (at least 15% ownership on DK) in this matchup. 

Breshad Perriman (knee) practiced in full, as did talented rookie Denzel Mims, who has been nursing a hamstring throughout camp. When those three guys, plus Herndon are all in the lineup alongside Le’Veon Bell, this (again) is not as bad an offense (on paper) as everyone thinks it is. Chris Hogan will also be in the mix, especially this week as Mims and Perriman come back from injury from an already funky offseason. 

Bell is being overlooked in DFS, but the projection models like his price plus expected high usage rate (eighth overall usage rate in 2019). The Bills were a run-funnel last season, finishing 22nd against the rush and eighth against the pass. The Jets offensive line was so bad last year that it’s hard to put Bell’s inefficient season on his resume alone. One metric you will see over and over in my work is adjusted line yards allowed and gained, which measures (quick explanation) how many yards a back should pick up based on what the offensive line blocks. NYJ were 31st in this stat. One thing to look for this week is passing targets for Bell, who saw more than 7.0 targets without Darnold and just over 4.0 with. If we aren’t getting a ton of passing-game work from Bell, he loses all appeal. I don’t see a ceiling game here from Bell, so even at his discounted price he is a fade for me in three- and 20-Max GPPs. There are just too many RBs I want to play on this slate. We also don’t know how the fantasy dinosaur, Frank Gore will be worked in. I can see him absorbing goal-line work, which lowers Bell’s ceiling even further. 

Injuries/notes 

• Safety Marcus Maye, who was already dealing with a calf injury, did not participate in Thursday’s practice with a new ankle injury. Although Maye had a fantastic training camp in which he stepped up into a new role, his status for Sunday’s game is now up in the air.
• Rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims, who was a full participant Wednesday, was downgraded to limited. Mims’ hamstring injury is now listed plurally as “hamstrings.” Needless to say, this development jeopardizes Mims’ chances of making his debut on Sunday.
• As for Avery Williamson, the veteran linebacker was held out of practice with a hamstring injury. The Jets added Alec Ogletree to their practice squad as Williamson deals with yet another injury.
• Tarell Basham (ankle), Joe Flacco (neck) and Alex Lewis (shoulder) were also limited Thursday. Flacco is not expected to be ready to go for Week 1 as he works his way back from offseason neck surgery, but both Basham and Lewis are expected to be ready to go for Sunday’s game.
• La’Mical Perine is doubtful after missing practice all week (ankle) 
• Receivers Jamison Crowder (hamstring) and Breshad Perriman (knee) were both full participants on Thursday while running back Frank Gore enjoyed a veteran rest day. (Source: JetsWire.com) 

Bills

Playing at home, with a new No. 1 WR in Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen is in play in large-field GPPs. With the nasty total and potential bad weather/script, this is not a guy you run out in cash or even a three-max, not at his $6.5k price tag. That said, he has that big ceiling with the combo of rushing production mixed with a cannon of an arm and a matchup against an extreme pass funnel D in 2019. In terms of adjusted line yards, the Jets were historically good last at 3.00 yards per carry allowed. When you factor in how often they were down, and consequently being run on (eighth-fewest FPPG allowed), it was even more impressive. The issue again is floor vs. ceiling. At $6.5k we need him to go off, and I am not sure the Jets offense can put enough pressure on the Bills to get that kind of game. Again, if he breaks off a few big runs and ends up punching in a rush TD or two, he can get there, but this is an MME-only play for me. 

One thing that did stand out in my research is where Allen likes to throw the ball. As you can see below (via Sharp Football), Allen only operates efficiently on one side of the field. It appears that will be Diggs’ primary side, but John Brown moved around the formation quite a bit so assume both will get their chances to run routes on Allen’s “good side.” If you want to stack up Allen/Diggs/Brown in GPPs (I am the biggest Smokey fanboy), I get it. Just keep in mind Cole Beasley and TE Dawson Knox are around and can easily troll that stack as they combined for a 31% RZ target share from Allen in 2019 (19% for Beasley).

vs. Jets 

Josh Allen — overall 

As a home favorite, both Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss could see a healthy workload, but with Allen also in the red-zone mix (22 RZ carries last season, 17 rushing TDs last two), these guys are easy fades for me against the Jets rush D. This will be another situation to monitor closely for the future. 

Injuries/notes

• Josh Norman did not take part in Thursday’s walk-through, according to the team’s injury report. Norman has been dealing with an injured left hamstring. Presumably, he would need to take part in Friday’s practice in some fashion in order to play in Sunday’s opener against the New York Jets. 
• Defensive tackle Vernon Butler (hamstring) was upgraded from limited to full participant as was running back Taiwan Jones, who has a knee injury. 
• Cornerback Levi Wallace was listed as a full participant for the second consecutive day. 

CORE PLAYS: Bills D 

GPP ONLY: Allen-Diggs stack, Allen-Brown stack, Allen-Diggs-Brown, Bell (MME) 

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

GB +2.5. O/U:45.5
GB: 21 | MIN: 23.5

Check the MagicSportsGuide for the NFC North

Pace and play-calling

Packers

Welcome to Davante Adams week. According to FTNDaily’s ownership projections, Adams should be the WR1 this week in terms of popularity. We all know the situation from fantasy football analysis, the Packers did nothing to upgrade at WR or TE, setting up Adams to pick up his end of 2019 pace (31% target share, 23.73 FPPG on DK from weeks 10-17. Behind only Michael Thomas in weighted opportunity over that span). He torched Minnesota for 7-106-0 and 13-116-0 last year and now gets a new-look Vikings secondary to torment.

Jeff Gladney/Cameron Dantzler on the outside and Mike Hughes/Holton Hill in the slot (Adams, 18% slot rate in 2019). They take over for CB Xavier Rhodes, CB Mackensie Alexander, CB Trae Waynes and S Jayron Kearse. That is a total revamp, in a season without a proper camp or preseason games. They also lost some serious firepower upfront in DE Everson Griffen and DT Linval Joseph, which should mean this defense takes a step back after finishing with the fourth-best overall defensive DVOA.

I have outlined Aaron Jones’ insane splits when he is given 15-plus touches so many times that I will save you the diatribe. In summary, he has essentially been “CMC good” when given 15+ carries.

2019 

Career

The issue with counting on this level of usage is we simply cannot ignore the team using a valuable second-round pick on a RB, when they already had a capable backup. We also need to keep in mind that a lot of that passing production he put up last year was with Adams on the shelf. Over that four-game stretch, Jones saw his targets jump from 3.5 per game to 6.75. That is why I run the splits based on rushing work, which increased by 2.0 YPC last year and 1.0 YPC in his career at the 15-carry mark. Often you see YPC go down when you add a larger sample, not up. The other red flag he carries is his TD rate, which is top-12 over the past 30 years. He now has 19 TDs in 40 games, which is an unsustainable rate. Given the size and power running style A.J. Dillon has, one would have to assume he (Jones) loses some goal line work. Given the popularity of Adams, Jones makes a terrific large-field GPP pivot at 7-9% projected ownership. He will not make it on my three-max teams. 

Aaron Rodgers has seen a steady decline in underlying QB metrics and is again hamstrung by his front office. Gone is Jimmy Graham, who finished with a modest 12% target share (11% RZ). Per The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman, Robert Tonyan is set to open the season as the Packers’ top pass-catching tight end as Jace Sternberger isn’t ready after spending part of camp on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Tonyan has 14 catches for 177 yards and two scores over the last two seasons while flashing in the preseason. I wrote him up last year for a showdown slate sleeper special and he busted, but I do think he is viable here at minimum price and may even roll him out in cash. At TE, I am normally in favor of paying up for a Zach Ertz/Mark Andrews or dropping all the way down to the punt plays, as this position has vicious variance. I have also won plenty of cash games and GPPs for that matter with a zero from a $2.5k TE. It allows you to jam in a Lamar Jackson and Christian McCaffrey and/or Michael Thomas/Adams, which often is enough to get you over the min. cash line. Tonyan is a converted WR with a very good profile, grading out in the 75th percentile or higher in four combine metrics. He also balled out at Indiana State. Sure, it is a small school, but we have seen tons of players with elite usage and production from smaller schools translate to the NFL. Tonyan caught 150 passes in three seasons at nearly 14 yards per reception and 20 TDs. With his price being so low, we just need a modest 3/50 line to reach 3.5x. 

Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are the other guys to know on offense. Lazard closed out 2019 as the clear No. 2 behind Adams, seeing 15% of Rodgers’ targets. Both these guys are Milly Maker fliers only to be stacked up with Rodgers. As much as I don’t like the way Rodgers is trending statistically, we can’t ignore that he has 3-4 blow-up games a year (seven top-five finishes in the last two years) and thus should be kept in your player pool if you MME against this inexperienced secondary. TwoGun wins a Milly Maker once a year I think with Rodgers, so now we just need to follow his picks to know when “Rodgers week” is. 

Injuries/notes 

• Packers signed former Bills WR Robert Foster to their practice squad. 
• Foster destroyed opposing secondaries through much of the second half of the 2018 season, catching 25 passes for 511 yards and three touchdowns from Josh Allen. He was then completely phased out of the Buffalo offense in 2019. Foster joins a Packers receiver room with plenty of questions behind Davante Adams. If Foster makes his way onto the Packers’ 53-man roster, he could make for an interesting deep threat for Aaron Rodgers. Fantasy managers should monitor Foster in deep formats. SOURCE: Matt Zenitz on Twitter

Vikings

This is not a very appealing game either from a pace and playcalling perspective, with both teams finishing in the bottom-12 in offensive plays per game. Their 2019 matchups combined for 33 and 37 points, both well under the total. Last year, every NFC North game not involving the Lions went UNDER the total. 

Minnesota doesn’t play slow (10th overall pace), but they run a lot and will absolutely grind out a second half out with their RBs if they have a lead. Last season they ran at the third-highest rate with a lead (seventh in neutral). 

Kirk Cousins was ridiculously efficient last season in his limited attempts (31st as a team, Cousins was 24th with 29.6 attempts per game). Gary Kubiak moves downstairs from his offensive advisor role into the offensive coordinator. He of course is the guy famous for zone blocking, so expect much of the same in terms of offensive philosophy. This is a run to set up the pass offense (fourth in play action competition rate). The only thing that could help Cousins for volume is the aforementioned secondary. If the Vikes fall into more positive game scripts for the passing offense, Cousins should have success based on his numbers from last season (8.2 adjusted yards per attempt). The caveat there is the exodus of Stefon Diggs, who is one of the more efficient and talented WRs in the game. Irv Smith Jr. and Justin Jefferson have some juice, and I am very bullish on both if given the opportunity, the problem is how many passing options can be viable in a run-first offense. Green Bay was and should again be a run-funnel on top of all the other factors working against Cousins in this spot, finishing 27th against the run after being 30th or lower most of the season and ninth against the pass, per DVOA. That led to a putrid 8 FPPG for Cousins in the two games last year. Here is a paragraph from my Packers preseason guide about the Pack D:

One thing GB has done well is constructing a defense scheme and stockpiling talent to carry that plan out. I talk about teams that have become good against the run putting increased pressure on their pass defense by forcing opponents into the more efficient style of football. The Pack have gone the other (sharp) way…I assume similar splits again this season with GB having very little turnover on defense. The theory is built around stopping the KCs of the league, which leaves them vulnerable to a power attack like Tennessee (and Minnesota). 

Adam Thielen is a prime example of recency bias in fantasy. Thielen is being dismissed as the alpha that he is due to a hamstring injury from Week 7. Prior to that he was a WR1, but a TD-dependent one, with 5 TDs in those six games driving his impressive splits. A big part of that was a heavy RZ usage rate, but we still can’t project him to score 14 TDs for the season (his preseason TD line is 6.5). He has a healthy game prop for this matchup, at 5.5 receptions and 75 receiving yards. This is just his sixth career game without Diggs, and the games were mostly from third years ago, so not much to see there. That said, we can assume losing a player of that caliber will equal a higher target share for Thielen, as it did for Diggs last season. 

GB did not shadow in Weeks 6-13, but then asked Jaire Alexander to shadow Terry McLaurin and ironically, Stefon Diggs in Weeks 14 and 16 for about 72% of snaps. The way to get away from him is the slot, where he only lined up 5% in 2019. Alexander was first in overall pass breakups and ninth in catch rate allowed in coverage making this a less than optimal matchup for Thielen, who is expected to play mostly outside with Olabisi Johnson at the flanker and Jefferson in the slot when they go three-wide. 

Dalvin Cook should carry modest ownership considering he is in a smash spot. I realize it is scary when these guys get mad about money and start speaking in the third person as Cook did last week, and that is a big reason I started taking Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Joe Mixon before him in best ball. But this is DFS, so he’s only our problem for one game. I try to stay out of the preseason Twitter player battles because I don’t want to create bias that creeps into betting and DFS. Cook comes into Week 1 with less expected ownership than (approximately) seven RBs. Let’s not forget the dude was an absolute monster before getting banged up, averaging over 27 FPPG on DK (19 FPPG the rest of the season). He saw 4.5 targets per game last season (8.2 YPT), third among all RBs. He could get a slight bump in target share from the loss of Diggs and his bubble screens. He only faced GB once last year and smoked them for 191 total yards (31.1 FP). When asked about playing without the new contract, here is what Cook said:

“It’s just like if I value you as a person, I would treat you such as I value you. It’s the same thing with me. I’m going to give 1,000% on the field, every time I walk in the building, every time I’m out in the community. It’s kind of the same thing. Like I said, I just hope both sides come to an agreement so they can value Dalvin Cook on and off the field.”

Injuries 

• The Vikings have no one listed on the injury report

CORE PLAYS: Adams, Cook, Tonyan (prefer on DK) 

GPP ONLY: Jones, (*Cousins + Thielen + Jefferson), (*Rodgers + Adams + Lazard + &/or Tonyan), *Irv Smith (I love me some Smith, but Kyle Rudolph is not dead, don’t go nuts in Week 1)

*large-field only

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team

PHI -6.5. O/U: 42.5
PHI: 24 | WAS: 17

Check the MagicSportsGuide for the NFC East

Pace and playcalling

Eagles

Philly has dominated this matchup over the past few seasons, including dropping a 32 and 37 spot on them last season. Carson Wentz and company (including myself) are waiting on injury reports before deciding exactly how to attack this game. 

DeSean Jackson has absolutely dominated in Week 1 matchups throughout his career, which I simply attribute to health for a speed WR (23.05 FPPG, last four week one games). As soon as these guys get their legs, hips, etc., banged up, they are no longer as dangerous. Jackson also has torn up Washington in his career, averaging 101.75 rec yards per game for 22.17 DK FPPG. Kendall Fuller, Fabian Moreau and Ronald Darby are scheduled to start. Darby allowed over 2.3 fantasy points per target in coverage before the Eagles said goodbye and is the guy we want to exploit. 

Jalen Reagor and Miles Sanders are the two players we need to know the status of. Sanders averaged 18 touches for 95 yards over the final half of the season. Washington allowed an eye-popping 173.8 total yards per game to RBs. Either way, with the COVID-19 factor, plan on seeing some Boston Scott and Corey Clement, as I just don’t see them running him into the ground coming off of injury in Week 1. Last season when he became an RB1, they were playing for a playoff berth and had no skill-position players left other than their TEs. 

Speaking of TEs, the Eagles certainly have the best duo in the league in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, who combined for one of the highest combined TE target shares in the modern era. Ertz is still the alpha, getting 23.8% of team targets in 2019 (25% RZ target share). That went even higher as the injuries piled up, seeing 10-plus targets in five of his last seven games. Like everything else (other than the defensive line), the Washington tight end coverage was #NotGood. They allowed the fifth-most FPPG to the position. No team used two TEs more than Philly, so we need to stop thinking of Goedert as a backup and start looking at him as low end TE1, regardless of Ertz’s status. He averaged 7.7 targets per game over his last six games with Ertz on the field for 12.97 DK FPPG. 

J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward need some players to miss this game to be viable options. That said, Ward will be the primary slot WR this season. The problem is already written, so many two-TE sets make the slot WR in Philly less valuable. 

Injuries 

• Jalen Reagor was a full participant in practice Thursday, significantly improving the odds the rookie receiver can play in the season opener. The Eagles’ 2019 first-round pick suffered a shoulder injury Aug. 31 during a scrimmage at Lincoln Financial Field. He got hurt trying to make a tackle on an interception. He was listed as a “week-to-week” on Sept. 1 and was expected to miss some games, but it’s looking as though he might be back earlier.
• In other injury news, Lane Johnson, Miles Sanders and Derek Barnett were limited for the second straight day. Corey Clement popped up on the injury report as a limited participant with a quadricep injury. Sanders did individual drills, but his and Clement’s status for Sunday is unclear.
• If both running backs are hobbled, the team will have just Boston Scott and Jason Huntley, who is still learning the playbook, fully healthy. The team could promote practice-squad running backs Elijah Holyfield and/or Adrian Killins.

Washington

The Washington RB room has been a hot topic this offseason. I know everyone is on the Antonio Gibson bandwagon, but I have a tough time eating a 25% rookie RB in a committee in a game that is likely going to have a negative script for the Washington rush attack. I am not sure we can count on goal-line work due to Bryce Love, nor all the passing work due to J.D. McKissic. That leaves us needing Gibson to be very efficient on his (you hope) 10-12 touches. This all against a defense that was third in rush DVOA last year. I may hedge and put him on 1 of my 3-max teams, but as of now he is a full GPP fade. I will update this stance Sunday.

Terry McLaurin gets a tough Week 1 draw with Darius Slay. Slay didn’t not shadow McLaurin for all their snaps last season while he was in Detroit, but when he did he was very effective (3/42 on 10 targets. 73% of snaps). Like Gibson, I am a huge fan of Scary Terry’s talent and love how heavy his usage rate should be this year. This just comes down to ownership, with “F1” (so many nicknames), as he is projected for at least 25% ownership, which is too high for a young receiver in a less than perfect matchup, tied to a quarterback that was awful in his rookie season. You can’t play every player unless you are an MME guy, and even then you should be taking stances. There are about 20 WRs I want to play this week so F1 is off the list, outside of my own MME (which I hope I have time for). 

Injuries 

• Kendall Fuller, arguably the best CB for Washington is DOUBTFUL. 

CORE PLAYS: Sanders (assuming a full Friday practice and no set backs), Ertz, Wentz (I like to pay up for a Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes occasionally in cash, or find someone cheap. I find these mid-level QBs (price wise) are best suited for GPPs (in general, there are always exceptions), Jackson (may get downgraded to GPP-only if Reagor is a full go), Gibson is one of these plays that I want to fade due to ownership in GPPs. Therefore it makes no sense to put him in “GPP only.” That said, if I MME or even make three-plus lineups, I would get about 10-15% exposure to Gibson (25% projected ownership), Terry McLaurin is in the same boat as Gibson, going to be at less than half the field in terms of MME exposure, WASH D (this Washington D sucks everywhere except the defensive line, so at $2k it is hard for me to resist playing them on DraftKings. They are going to give up points, so we are hoping for sacks and turnovers. WASH was fourth in adjusted sack rate in 2019 and then drafted an absolute stud in Chase Young with the No. 2 overall pick). 

GPP ONLY: Goedert, Steven Sims, Logan Thomas

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

CLE +7.5. O/U: 48.5
CLE: 20 | BAL: 29.5 

Check out the MagicSportsGuide for the AFC North

Pace and play-calling 

This game is the worst from a pace perspective (Baltimore 27th, Cleveland 28th), but as we know pace is just part of the equation, not the end all. When you can post explosive plays (20 yards or more), hurrying up to the line or volume of plays becomes less important. Baltimore averaged the third-most points per play in 2019 behind the strength of Lamar Jackson’s 53 plays of at least 20 yards (his 11 runs of 20-plus was tied for first with Nick Chubb). Looking at this season, new Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski brings his ground-and-pound, zone-blocking scheme from Minnesota with the goal of riding the Browns’ two RBs and taking pressure off of Baker Mayfield, and setting up play-action passes. The good thing Stefanski will do is speed things up when training. Minnesota shaves seven seconds per play off when down by at least 7 points and passes at a 67% rate (35% when up by 7-plus). 

Browns

The Browns had a great offseason, vastly improving the offensive line by selecting Jedrick Wills with the 10th overall pick and signing Jack Conklin. You don’t have to read the tea leaves with Cleveland, they told us exactly what they want to do by bringing in StefanskI and giving Kareem Hunt a lucrative contract extension when they already have Chubb on the roster. You can say the same thing with the acquisition of Austin Hooper (when they already have a young TE prospect in David Njoku). Last year, Minnesota ran a league-low 25% out of three-WR sets. 

Marcus Peters was much-maligned after being run out of Kansas City and Los Angeles, but he has found a home in Baltimore. He still was the most vulnerable on the Ravens in terms of fantasy points allowed (1.49 FP per target), but he (and Jimmy Smith being healthy) allowed Marlon Humphrey to stay in the slot. Last year he played 50% inside, compared to 4% in 2018. To have the league’s best CB in terms of catch rate allowed in a position that is a weak spot for many gives the Ravens a big edge on D. If the Browns are always in 12 personnel, they could keep Humphrey off the field for 40-50% of the game, unless they opt to stick him back outside and sit one of the veterans. 

My guess is they stay in their usual places, which will leave Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. outside against Smith and Peters. One stat I found interesting was Landry’s efficiency was better outside last season, which I would have figured to be the opposite. 

Source: Football Outsiders 

Beckham is the “No. 2” WR in Cleveland (sorry, I had to). OBJ had extreme runs last year (OK, promise that is the last one) when playing teams against a top-12 passing defense, having his big movements (seriously, I’m done) against the Jets, Bengals and Dolphins, while being constipated by the 49ers, Ravens, Steelers and Bills. In the Browns’ (it’s not my fault, that is their name) six 2019 wins, he averaged 15.72 DK points per game, versus 11.4 in their 10 losses. I could see him burning Peters, who allowed 4-44-1 in garbage time to OBJ in Week 16. 

Nick Chubb is a stud. Anyone who says otherwise is just not paying attention. He was second in yards created last year, second in evaded tackles, first in 20-yard runs and third in GL carries. The issue with Chubb is simply Kareem Hunt, and the decrease in targets, which makes him more like Derrick Henry, where he needs volume and TDs to pay off his big salary. There will be those spots this season for Chubb, but this is not one. I know he ripped them for a monster game in Week 4, but that was before Baltimore hit its stride defensively. When they matched up again in Week 16, Chubb showed just how low his floor is now with a 4.5-point performance on 16 touches. This is a new regime, so assuming this usage split this season could be way off. Dalvin Cook was used as a workhorse (18 carries, 4.5 targets per game), which would be great news for those who invested in Chubb in best ball. 

Per PennLive.com, “the Browns haven’t clarified the simple fact of whether first-year coach Kevin Stefanski will call plays for the team’s offense or hand those duties to coordinator Alex Van Pelt.” Later Friday it was announced that Stefanski will in fact call plays, but I drop that quote because we simply can’t assume 2020 Hunt will be the same as the 2019 version. Last year he was essentially James White of CLE, ranking in the top-six in RB catches, yards and targets per game. I would like a higher ceiling out of my GPP RBs, unless they are in that $4k range. He is also a no go for me in cash, as he has an ultra-low floor. 

Austin Hooper was an article favorite last year. The DFS community never warmed up to him, even though he stayed a relative value in his time in ATL while averaging 14.69 points per game. We know the Stefanski offense loves throwing to the TE, targeting the position at 23.9% rate (eighth). The problem with looking at that and getting super excited is play volume and pass rate, since this CLE offense isn’t going to offer the volume Hoop saw in the ATL. That will make him more reliant on TDs, which is going to make him more boom or bust. 

Rookie TE Harrison Bryant is listed as the No. 2, while David Njoku and Stephen Carlson round out the depth chart. Carrying four TEs is another indication we are about to see a lot of multiple-TE sets. Bryant is interesting if you are in a deep dynasty league — he posted 1,000 yards last year on 60 receptions at Florida Atlantic. 

Injuries 

• Grant Delpit had surgery to repair ruptured Achilles (He was supposed to help control Lamar Jackson, as a good-tackling second-round defensive back out of LSU. Welp). 
• Cornerback M.J. Stewart was also a limited participant. Stewart, acquired in August off waivers from Tampa Bay, missed over two weeks of practices with a hamstring problem. His progress is a good sign, because presumptive starting slot CB Kevin Johnson remains out with his liver injury. Stewart is best-suited to play inside.
• Four players have been ruled out for the Browns: OT Chris Hubbard, LB Mack Wilson, CB Kevin Johnson and CB Greedy Williams.
• The cornerback position is the position most impacted by injury this week. With Williams out, veteran Terrance Mitchell is expected to start in his place (although that’s not necessarily a bad thing; everyone here knows how much I like Mitchell). Johnson, the team’s nickelback, remains out. M.J. Stewart would normally take his place, but he is questionable as he comes off a hamstring injury. 
• The other big injury-related news for Cleveland is that C J.C. Tretter is listed as questionable, as opposed to being ruled out. Given how much he has gutted through in the past, I expect Tretter to suit up. If he can’t play, though, then rookie Nick Harris would get the call. Backup offensive tackle Chris Hubbard is also out.

Ravens

With the Browns limping into Baltimore, I am a bit surprised this line is only 7 points after opening at 8.5. The Ravens fit my model of an experienced team/system going against on that experienced change over the offseason. I like the moves Cleveland made, but that doesn’t mean they are going to come together in Week 1 in Baltimore. I don’t like to get into the narrative, but after a 14-2 year and a disappointing loss to Tennessee, I think we are going to get a highly motivated Ravens team, playing at home, while the Browns make the trip during the “fun times” that is COVID-19. 

Lamar Jackson averaged 28.18 FPPG on DK last season. The next-highest average was Dak Prescott at a mortal 21.98. Jackson has thoroughly enjoyed playing the Browns, averaging over 28 FPPG on FanDuel on 84 rushing yards per game. I know history calls for regression when looking at the Ravens and Jackson’s 2019 season, but regression doesn’t all come at once. We have never seen a player like Jackson, in a system designed around his unique/extreme talents. Plus, all we care about is Sunday, which sets up very well. 

Per PFF, the Cleveland LBs are not very good (graded last in 2019) and may have gotten worse with Joe Schobert being in Jacksonville. That leaves a bunch of JAGs (pun intended) and rookie Jacob Phillips. For all the good CLE did in improving the roster, not improving the LB core in a division with Lamar is questionable. 

I expected Baltimore to carry three TEs, but it’s just Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle on the final roster. Andrews is my No. 1 TE on the slate with his price and ownership edge over George Kittle. Again, the LBs are not great and Andrews is the alpha of this passing offense. 

Last year, Baltimore and Philadelphia led the league in TE target share and were one of five teams in the modern era with a 40% target share to the position. Most probably assume Hayden Hurst (9.4%, 32% route participation) had the second-highest target rate, but it was actually Boyle at 10% (66% snap share, 36.8% route participation). He’s not very talented, but opportunity can outweigh talent sometimes in the NFL, especially in a circumstance like this, where he is being brought along for the ride (a rising tide lifts all boats). Boyle is a dart throw if you are multi-entering the Milly Maker, but nothing more. 

Per NewsBreak.com, Andrews projects to see a higher snap count in 2020, writes John Eisenberg of the team’s official website. Though Andrews led all tight ends with 10 touchdowns last season, he did so while playing a mere 41% of the team’s offensive snaps. Part of that was dealing with some bumps and bruises, and part of it was Hayden Hurst commanding a significant chunk of snaps as well. With a clean bill of health and Hurst moving on to Atlanta, the runway is clear for Andrews to play a high percentage of the snaps in Baltimore. Much has been made about the sustainability of his touchdown rate from 2019 (10.2%). However, if he sees a major snap count increase and thus major target increase, any regression in touchdown efficiency could be smoothed over by the significant uptick in opportunities.

I was all set to roll out a ton of “Hollywood” Marquise Brown but after spending the night hearing everyone and their mother talking about playing him, I am less excited. Receiver is naturally a volatile position. That goes even more for small/speed WRs in a run-first offense (Baltimore targeted WRs at the second-lowest rate in 2019). Together, you get one of those players to take an uncomfortable stand on to get some leverage in GPPs. When I talk myself off a player, I always hedge. That means I will fade him on most teams but will submit at least one (decent-sized) GPP team in a Lamar stack (he is not going off unless his quarterback does). There is nothing more defeating than fading a good player you like and watching the chalk parade on twitter ensue as he rips off a couple long TDs and buries your team. For your sanity, embrace #HedgeLife. For MME, I would probably come in about 50% of the field. E.g. If his projected ownership is 25%, I will get approximately 12.5% exposure. 

I want J.K Dobbins to be a thing as much as anyone (except Ray Garvin), but folks, Mark Ingram is alive and well and a leader of this team and offense. Like the analysis for Lamar and Andrews, the Browns linebackers are a problem. They allowed 4.96 RB yards per carry on the third-highest adjusted yards per carry rate, which led to them getting bashed by opposing backs. Ingram finished first in juke rate last season and eighth in yards per touch and had the most favorable gamescripts of any RB. He had five games in the top-10 and five games outside the top-25 in terms of fantasy points. I know that saying a player is better in GPPs can seem like a tout hedge, but when someone is this TD-dependent (15 TDs, fourth-most on the 20th-most carries), you are going to have these massive week-to-week swings (his 3.1 RZ touches per game was eighth). If you take a swing on Dobbins, it should be a Milly Maker-type GPP where you are playing for the BAL blowout or him taking a screen pass to the house. The point: Stack him with Lamar if you’re gonna do it. 

CORE PLAYS: Jackson, Andrews (Stack ‘em, but either can be played solo)

GPP ONLY: Brown (stack with Jackson), Ingram, Boyle, Mayfield-Landry-Hooper stack, Mayfield-Beckham-Landry stack

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

IND -7.5 O/U: 44.5
IND: 26.5 | JAX: 19

Check out the MagicSportsGuide for the AFC South

Weather 

Scattered thunderstorms, 60% chance of precipitation, temperature in the low- to mid-80s, wind from the ESE at 11 mph.

Pace and playcalling

Both of these teams were in the bottom seven in overall pace in 2019, but Jacksonville has a new coordinator in Jay Gruden and Leonard Fournette is in Tampa, so not sure we need to look too hard at the Jags 2019 pace. Per Derrick Brown, Gruden’s offense averaged a 56% passing rate in neutral situations, but that number increased to 74% when his team was behind. 

Frank Reich’s offense was an anomaly from a pace perspective, averaging 31.79 seconds per play in neutral situations (25th), and 27.14 when leading by 7 or more. That should be flip-flopped, but he at least sped it up when trailing (25 seconds). That is a big uptick in any situation from the snail’s pace the Chargers have played at the league’s slowest neutral pace. 

Colts

Philip Rivers is back with Reich and OC Nick Sirianni. As it has been for years, we need his team to fall behind or it to be a shootout to get him taking those crazy shots down the field and start playing up in pace. The Jaguars rush D is bad, they signed Joe Schobert, who is good in coverage and bad against the run. They allowed 31.4 FPPG to RBs, which puts both Marlon Mack and second-round rookie Jonathan Taylor in smash spots. In two games against the Jaguars last year, Mack and Jonathan Williams combined for 225 rushing yards on 27 carries, 54 receiving yards on 4 receptions and a TD (39.4 FP). 

Rivers struggled throwing deep last season (27th), as the Sharp Football chart above illustrates. He was horrible past 15 yards, but very effective in short and intermediate routes (thank you, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen). Sirianni should know this, which is why we are going to Parris (ahem, Parris Campbell). Campbell is not for the weak-hearted, but at $3.9k, I find myself using him quite a bit when building GPP lineups. D.J. Hayden was good last year on a team where nothing went well, allowing no TDs and a 76.0 passer rating in coverage. It’s not a perfect matchup, but that is why Campbell’s ownership will be low. He appears to be the No. 2 WR, which means he should run about 30% of his routes on the outside (40% slot rate in 2019).

T.Y. Hilton was injured for most of 2020, but for some reason played through it despite the team not going anywhere. He is the obvious play here, and thus will be popular, with the Jaguars opponents targeting No. 1 receivers at a 28% rate (first). Rivers has always been a guy to lock into a No. 1 target (see Keenan Allen’s career stats), in addition, Sirianni has said the offense “will flow through T.Y. Hilton.” I usually save my T.Y. games for when he is on the carpet, either at home or in Houston, but you can just see Rivers peppering him with a ton of targets if the gamescript dictates. He is GPP only, as the expected script sets up better for the RBs. 

Jack Doyle is back in our lives with Eric Ebron in Pittsburgh and Trey Burton (yes, the guy from Philly who was the next Zach Ertz, who was then replaced in Chicago by 14 tight ends) expected to miss the season opener. That leaves just Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox as active TEs. This Colts offense targetd TEs at a 29% rate last year (behind only Philadelphia and Baltimore) — it’s a new QB in Indianapolis, but we know Rivers loves the TE. With Jacksonville so vulnerable up the middle, it would not surprise me to see Doyle produce. 

Injuries/notes

• Despite starting offensive linemen Quenton Nelson, Anthony Castonzo and Ryan Kelly all either missing time or being limited this week, Reich told the media that all three are ready to go and will start against the Jaguars.
• Third-round pick Julian Blackmon is the only player ruled out in Week 1.

Jaguars

Stacking Gardner Minshew and (my dude) D.J. Chark makes for a fun GPP team with big upside that won’t break the bank. The reason I hesitant to back Chark in cash games are the splits he had with and without Nick Foles, seeing 3-plus targets a game with BIg Nick. Again, it was two games, and the 7.38 he got with Minshew is not terrible. He also could see a bump with Fournette out of town (6.7 targets per game). 

Behind Chark, it gets messy. Keelan Cole has been a guy I have always liked, but he has not done much since his rookie campaign. Dede Westbrook is still on the roster, as are Chris Conley, and TE Tyler Eifert. Laviska Shenault looks like a beast, but he is a rookie in a crowded situation in a year with no preseason to give us any indication how the targets are going to be distributed. I think the second-round rookie will eventually be the man behind Chark, but that may take a while. Chris Thompson is also new in Jacksonville. With them targeting their RBs at a 24% rate and likely being down, he is the RB to run it back on your Rivers stacks, hoping this thing shoots out. I am not playing much James Robinson, as I am counting on the script taking him out of the mix. He would make more sense on FD, where you are TD hunting with a punt RB. 

CORE PLAYS: Chark, Campbell (GPP only), Doyle, Mack, Taylor

GPP ONLY: Hilton, Minshew, Rivers 

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

CHI +3. O/U: 44.5
CHI: 20.5 | DET: 23.5

Check the MagicSportsGuide for the NFC North

Pace and playcalling 

Bears

Mitchell Trubisky is back, and people want to play him against a Lions team that allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position (third to WRs). A word of caution, as this is not the same Lions team as last year. They brought in DT Danny Shelton, DT Nick Williams, LB Jamie Collins, LB Reggie Ragland, LB Elijah Lee, CB Desmond Trufant, CB Darryl Roberts, S Duron Harmon, S Jayron Kearse and drafted CB Jeff Okudah and LB Julian Okwara in the first three rounds. For those keeping score at home, that is 11 new defensive players. Once a roster turns over this much, looking at last year’s stats can be misleading. 

It only took 27 Brad Evans tweets, but it looks like David Montgomery is back. I think we still need to wait a week before rolling him out in DFS, as it is hard to imagine them giving him a full workload. 

If Montgomery plays, Tarik Cohen and Cordarrelle Patterson become much more volatile. I know Cohen has a good track record against Detroit, but again, this is a different roster.

Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller are still in play, though I will again caution that Okudah and Trufant (when healthy) are a vast upgrade from last season. That is not to say they can lock down ARob, who even averaged 6 receptions per game last year against primary coverage from Darius Slay. He was right behind Davante Adams and Michael Thomas in multiple usage categories, averaging just under 10 targets per game. 

Miller will see a familiar face when in 3-WR sets against Justin Coleman in the slot. He allowed the No. 70 passer rating in coverage last season after finishing top-20 in 2018. Teams went after Coleman last season, with him seeing 29.1% of opposing targets, one of the highest target rates of any starting CB. Miller was a beast down the stretch, and I expect that to carry over into 2020 against Coleman, who allowed the third-most receptions and second-most yards of any inside CB. 

Jimmy Graham has been getting talked up in camp. The TE room in Chicago is about 20-deep, so this will be a situation to monitor in Week 1. 

Injuries/notes

• QUESTIONABLE: T Germain Ifedi (triceps), LB Khalil Mack (knee), RB David Montgomery (groin), WR Cordarrelle Patterson (knee), CB Buster Skrine (finger), T Jason Spriggs (knee), WR Javon Wims (Achilles)
• DOUBTFUL: DE Robert Quinn (ankle)

Lions

When looking at the 2019 Lions, you just need to run the Matthew Stafford splits to get the story. In eight games with the QB, they averaged 25.5 PPG on 312 passing yards (8.57 YPA). Without, they plummeted to 17 PPG on 6.04 YPA (211 passing yards). If he plays the entire season, I think they win it. More on Stafford — He was fifth in fantasy points per dropback, second in ANY/A, and was attempting 7-plus deep pass attempts per game. He also ranked first per NFL Next Gen Stats’ aggressiveness metric. The issue is the potential absence of big Kenny Golladay, who is very doubtful after missing Friday’s practice. That is a shame, as myself, Javi Prellezo and Eliot Crist had identified this game as a Lions stack prior to the news. 

If KG sits, Marvin Jones becomes the chalk, with Danny Amendola and T.J. Hockenson becoming stronger plays. We prefer Jones in man-to-man coverage over zone, so if you are looking for a reason to fade that is it. I will have him on one of three three-max GPP teams, which will likely be a little underweight. I drafted a ton of D’Andre Swift, so I will be watching his debut closely. I worry, like most, about Adrian Peterson capping his and Kerryon Johnson’s upside by poaching goal-line and early-down work, so the combo of those factors and the Bears D (10th in overall DVOA). 

Injuries 

• The statuses of two main players on the Detroit Lions offense may be in doubt for Sunday’s game. Both starting right tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai and start wide receiver Kenny Golladay did not practice Thursday.
• After being listed as “limited” Wednesday, Golladay was officially a non-participant for Thursday’s practice. According to the Lions’ pool reporter — The Athletic’s Chris Burke — the receiver was out there at practice, but not going through any drills. It’s worth noting, too, that the Lions were not in full pads.
• As for Vaitai, he’s been battling a foot injury all week. Obviously, the Lions are trying to take as much as precaution as possible early in the season, but he, too, was downgraded from limited to out, and that is never a good sign. Backup swing tackle Tyrell Crosby could give it a go Sunday.
• And if that wasn’t enough bad news for you, rookie cornerback Jeff Okudah joined the crowded injury list on Thursday with a hamstring injury. He’s officially listed as limited. This is a situation to monitor for ARob.

CORE PLAYS: Jones (play him in cash if Golladay sits), Miller 

GPP ONLY: Robinson (I like too many WRs in this range to put him in “CORE,” but I will probably regret that by halftime), Stafford (feels more like a floor game if no Golladay), Hockenson, Amendola 

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

SEA -1.5. O/U: 49.5
SEA: 24.5 | ATL: 23.5

Pace and playcalling 

(From the MagicSportsGuide)

This is a team I struggle with on many levels. I am a HUGE Russell Wilson stan, so watching the Seahawks run the ball on 46% of offensive plays since 2015 is tilting, to say the least. I have equated it to putting Mike Trout seventh in the batting order and asking him to sacrifice bunt anytime a man is on base. In my opinion, Wilson is just as talented (maybe more so at this point) as Patrick Mahomes (yeah, I said it), we just can’t be sure due to this SEA offensive scheme. As a pace and play-calling savant (yeah, I said it), seeing a team operate at or close to the league’s slowest pace and highest rush rates is just too much to take sometimes. I would like to tell you things will be different this season, but I can’t/won’t do that. If anything, you can make a case that an improved defense could lead to more fourth quarters filled with Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde carries.

Seahawks

I have gone on two-page tangents on the misuse of Russell Wilson, so will save you from it again. We all know it is close to a crime at this point, bottling up one of the greatest QBs in the history of the NFL (yeah, I said it), in an archaic offensive system, both from a playcalling and pace perspective. No game exemplified this more than the matchup of these two teams last year, that saw RW3 attempt 20 passes for 182 yards. That is the only risk I see again in this matchup, strictly gamescript and Pete Carroll. 

Atlanta flashed a little bit on defense to end 2019, but there is nothing that should scare us off any Seattle fantasy option other than the script. Looking at ownership for this game, it is heavily concentrated on DK Metcalf, Calvin Ridley and Todd Gurley, with the higher-priced passing options (Julio Jones, Tyler Lockett and the QBs) all under 10%. Looks like the way this game played out last year is stopping people from going all in on this one. I think that is a mistake, as I have this game as a top-two option in terms of a full game stack, right after CAR/OAK. 

Regarding Metcalf, I hope everyone is ready for the breakout that is coming this season. The reason I am so bullish (besides him being a freak of a human) is how they started moving him around the formation and running bigger variety routes in the playoffs. As the charts from next-gen stats show, SEA decided to move the big man around against Philly, after keeping him home on his left side for most of the season (63% of routes from the left side). 

The big man also emerged as Wilson’s go-to guy in the red zone, which is very logical considering his size/speed profile. He only converted on 6-of-18 of those targets last year, which means this guy could explode if he converts those at a higher rate. Wilson has finished first or second in end-zone pass attempts in each of the past three seasons, so as much as they like to run, they do rely on Russ when they get close. 

Lockett is also firmly in play if you stack this game up (like I am). On the topic of game stacks, often you will see folks take it a step too far, or don’t consider correlation. You want to play the game out, if Matt Ryan and Jones/Ridley go off, Wilson and his WRs are coming along for the ride. I don’t like to give out full lineups, but I don’t mind giving a core to show you the way I build a game stack.

Carroll has indicated Carlos Hyde and Chris Carson will be busy Sunday, something about riding the hot hand if I recall. That is scary for Carson, who is in a smash spot otherwise. He posted a very “Carson like” line last year in this matchup, picking up 90 yards on 15 carries and a TD. I liked his increased passing work last year, jumping from 1.7 to 3.1 targets per game, that will be something to monitor with DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer both on the roster (both from Miami U). Dallas is supposed to be more of a special teams guy initially, but Homer saw 13 targets in Weeks 16 and 17, so I would not put Carson on my Matt Ryan teams as a run-back. 

Falcons

Ryan should have no problems against this new-look SEA secondary, as his success is based around pressure. When he has time, he rips through defenses at an 80% clip (third-best). That falls all the way to 35% when under duress. Seattle was 30th last year in adjusted sack rate, and now are rolling into 2020 without their best (only) pass-rush threat in Jadeveon Clowney. I don’t care who you add at safety or CB, if Ryan can sit in the pocket, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are going to eat. Many forget it was Matt Schaub in this matchup last year, and he targeted Jones 12 times (10/152). With Devonta Freeman, Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper gone, ATL has the largest share of available targets up for grabs. Yes, Gurley, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst will get some of those targets, but I think Ridley gets a bump in usage.

Gurley comes home to Georgia after a great run in LA. As we know, backs who handle the kind of volume he’s had will show a sharp decline. His YPT fell from 5.8 to 4.4 in 2019, which is correlated to the offensive line. The Rams were first in 2018 in adjusted line yards (per Football Outsiders), 19th in 2019. With Gurley’s yards created metric below league-average, he simply requires blocking to get yards. His yards after contact fell from 2.4 to 1.4 YAC (10th to 41st), which put him behind two senior citizens named Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy. That brings us back to Atlanta, who finished 24th in adjusted line yards. Gurley is not someone I am drafting at his ADP, as I want all the WRs in that range. 

According to the FTN Splits tool, Calvin Ridley seems to be on the cusp of a breakout. He has thrived with increased usage, and ATL did nothing to replace Sanu as a trusted third option. Gage is serviceable as the WR3 in the slot, but this sets up as the Jones/Ridley show at WR, complemented by Hurst at TE. Last year, Jones/Ridley combined for a 42% target share (148 combined targets). With good health, I think they will smash that number, ending up in the 45-46% target share range (270 combined targets at 600 pass attempts). Shaquill Griffin was solid and should be Ridley’s primary matchup. Ridley still posted 4-70-0 line on seven targets with Schaub. I was not that high on him in this matchup, but Kyle Murray’s projection model loves him, ranking him second in terms of price-per-dollar or value rating. 

CORE PLAYS: Metcalf, Gurley 

GPP ONLY: (Wilson and Metcalf and Lockett), (Ryan and Jones and Calvin and Hurst), Carson

Las Vegas Raiders at Carolina Panthers

LV -3. O/U: 47.5
LVR: 26 | CAR: 23

Check out the MagicSportsGuide for the NFC South

Pace and playcalling

Jon Gruden could screw up this wonderful fantasy matchup with his run-first, slow-paced style that was featured in 2019 (eighth in rush rate, 25th in neutral pace). That said, both of these defenses are so bad on paper (again), and both offenses feature so many playmakers, this one screams shootout. 

Raiders

One angle I am attacking is new faces in new places against established offensive systems. This game checks that box, as no team has gone through a bigger overhaul in terms of players (nine defensive starters), systems and coaches this offseason than Carolina. People are attacking the Raiders as a “road” dog. I use quotations because, without fans in the stands, I am not sure how much home-field advantage matters. That will be one fascinating aspect of this season. Is Seattle still a “tough place to play” without the 12th man? We shall see, but my guess is the lack of crowd noise will make things easier for opposing offenses. I will not be following the Raiders backers — Carolina has way too much talent on offense for me to endorse a Raiders defense that finished 30th in pass DVOA and 27th in adjusted sack rate. 

The public is pounding the over at a 90% rate. With a low volume of bets coming in this year, I would not put too much stock in this data, if any. That said, I agree this number is too low and it will likely end up at 48 to 49 by kickoff. 

Derek Carr is in a smash spot, with the Panthers running out what appears to be the worst defense in the league. Not only are there holes everywhere, they are very young and inexperienced. Josh Jacobs is Carr’s biggest hurdle, as he could dominate this CAR D, which will lead to Chucky shutting down the passing attack. Carolina allowed an eye-popping 27 rushing TDs last season, on the most RB yards per carry (30th in adjusted line yards allowed) and are now worse on paper. 

Panthers

In five starts for the Saints last season, Teddy Bridgewater averaged 16.7 points per game, finishing as the QB18 (16.3 points), QB26 (6.5), QB4 (27.3), QB17 (13.6) and QB13 (19.9) in overall scoring those weeks. Getting a home start against a defense that was 29th in point differential allowed to fantasy passers versus their average output to open the season has Bridgewater in play for streaming appeal and as a starter in 2QB leagues.

The unstoppable force that is Christian McCaffrey comes into a new system that is also built for his skill set. He was matchup proof last year, so talking about the Raiders run defense seems silly. It’s nice to see the sites price him up in week one, but there is so much value all over the board, I have not had much trouble jamming him in. 

My infatuation with D.J. Moore is well documented. Even though I lost a ton of $$ when he went down in Indy, I can’t quit him. The fact that he was so good with Kyle Allen is all you need to know about his upside

** I am digging into this game “moore” Saturday. I will tweet out after I update” 

CORE PLAYS: McCaffrey, Moore, Jacobs 

GPP ONLY: Waller, Edwards (Bridgewater and McCaffrey and Moore), Ian Thomas

(I’m stacking this game with both QBs on DK, as they are the same price.)

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

MIA +6.5. O/U: 43
MIA: 17 | NE: 24.5

Pace and Play Calling 

Pats 

The Cam Newton era gets underway in Foxboro against Miami, whose last trip to New England caused a massive upset. The Patriots ranked first or second in situation-neutral pace for the past 3-seasons. Many think they may slow it down a bit for Cam, and that may be true, but they have a long way to go to be a slow-paced team, at the minimum they will end up in the upper half. 

Pats lost Danny Shelton, Elandon Roberts, Justin Bethel, Duron Harmon, Kyle Van Noy, and Jamie Collins to free agency. D’Onta Hightower & Patrick Chung opted out, leaving this a different looking D. S Adrian Phillips comes in from LAC to go along with Stephon Gilmore, 

Devin McCourty, & Jonathan Jones in the slot which makes this one of the best secondaries still. J.C. Jackson will play opposite Gilmore, who will be locked on to Davante Parker, making Preston Williams the better matchup. I know Parker had his way with Gilmore, but I don’t see attacking him as a profitable long term endeavor. 

Miami

Ryan Fitzpatrick did have a good game against NE in week 17, and he was a stud to end 2020. But like Parker, I don’t want to take the path of most resistance. MIA has a change in coordinators, with Chan Gailey taking over. He would prefer to run, use play action, and play slowly, The question with that strategy is the MIA defense, which is sure to give up a fair amount of points. 

CORE PLAYS: NE DST

GPP ONLY: CAM, Edelman, White, Fitz+ Williams + Gesicki stack) 

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals

LAC -3.5. O/U: 43.5
LAC: 23.5 | CIN: 20

Pace and play-calling 

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/magicsportsguide-afc-north

Extreme differences in these two teams from their 2019 pace, with LAC playing at the league’s slowest pace, over 33 seconds per play in neutral situations. They just don’t get it, playing 2 seconds faster when up 7+. I don’t see that changing with Shane Steichen and Anthony Lynn at the helm still and TyRod Taylor in. Everyone looking at Tyrod’s RB target usage while in BUFF is wasting their time, as I see Tyrod being asked to operate the same offense as Phil, just with his skill set (being able to extend plays with his legs) being the main difference. In this COVID offseason, teams did not have time to overhaul a playbook, so I expect this LAC offense to look very similar to last year’s version. 

Chargers

Austin Ekeler averaged 20 touches (14 rush attempts, 6 rec.) in four games without Melvin Gordon last season. The Chargers told us they consider him their workhorse back by shipping off Melvin Gordon and giving Ekeler 15 million in guaranteed money. Ekeler racked up eight RZ touches in those four games which fell to .67 p/g when Gordon returned. CIN was 25th in DVOA against RBs in the pass, allowing 26 FPPG to RBs. According to the LA Times, the Chargers have said that Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson will be in the mix, but I am not buying it. Of course, Ekeler won’t get 100% of the snaps (57%), but I think 70%+ is the floor. Considering he was the RB6 in PPR formats with a 46% opportunity share (33rd), the ceiling is very high if he gets into the 70% range. 

Bengals

After closing 2019 as a workhorse, Joe Mixon was rewarded with a new contract extension right before the season. Hopefully, the Bengals start to get Mixon more involved in the passing game now that they are paying him like a top-shelf back since Mixon has finished no higher than 25th among running backs in receiving points per game over his first three seasons.

As an underdog, we want to ensure that Mixon does not become game script sensitive. But on the ground, Mixon should be fine here to open the year while the Bengals keep the game in check. The Chargers will be traveling cross country to open the season after ranking 24th in rushing points allowed per game (14.9) and 20th in YPC allowed to backfields (4.29).

Tyler Boyd was seventh among all wideouts in targets last season with 147. Only Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins had more targets over the next closest player on their team than Boyd as he had 68 more targets than the next closest Cincinnati player. Due to the types of targets those were paired with subpar quarterback play, Boyd checked in just 18th in overall points and 27th in points per game on all of that opportunity.

The targets here could be compromised a touch with A.J. Green returning to the fold and Boyd runs into a potentially sticky matchup out of the box. Running 65% of his route from the slot, Boyd should see plenty of Chris Harris in coverage. Harris only played 31 coverage snaps inside a year ago, but the last time that he was a full-time slot corner in 2018, he led the NFL with a 57.3 rating allowed in slot coverage. In two career meetings with Harris over the 2016-2017 seasons (Harris played just 11 snaps in the 2018 meeting), Boyd managed just four total catches for 23 yards. 

A.J. Green has never finished lower than WR17 in points per game in any of the seasons that he has played, but Green turned 32 this summer and has missed 29 games since the 2015 season. Already this preseason, Green has been held out of team drills after suffering a hamstring injury early in camp. Coming back from injury with minimal rapport established with a rookie quarterback to this point, Green will draw a ton of Casey Hayward in coverage in Week 1.

A year ago, Hayward did allow five touchdown receptions in his coverage, but also just 27 receptions overall, which was tied for the fourth-fewest among 87 cornerbacks who played 50% of their team snaps in 2019.

The Bengals brought in DT D.J. Reader, DT Mike Daniels, LB Josh Bynes, CB Trae Waynes, CB LeShaun Sims, & S Vonn Bell. They also drafted two LBs and a DE, clearly looking to improve on the defense that finished 30th in overall DVOA. With that much turnover, I am not sure what we get in Week 1 from this D, which is what makes 2020 so much “fun”. I lean to it being much improved by the end of the season, but not sure what we will get in Week 1. 

CORE PLAYS: N/A

GPP ONLY: N/A

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints

TB +3.5. O/U:49.5
TB: 23 | NO: 27

Buccaneers

The matchup of the day from a pure football standpoint could leave a lot to be desired for fantasy. That said, there are some great individual plays, even if we don’t think this shoots out. My system for this COVID Week 1 is attacking teams that have lots of new faces or a change in coaching against a coach/system that is locked in. This game fits that perfectly, with Tom Brady leaving NE for the sun in Tampa. On top of not being high on him this season at age 43, he will be without Mike Evans, on the road, against a team that finished with the eighth best DVOA and likely got better. The Saints can get after a QB in the Dome, so even without a crowd, I am not crazy about Brady working through the Saints pressure. Not that he was good with a clean pocket (32nd, 68.4%), but he was legitimately terrible under pressure (28.4% completion rate). 

Chris Godwin is in a good spot if he rolls inside to the slot against PJ Williams. We just don’t know how much we will be asked to do that with Evans out. If I were the Saints, I would shadow him with Marshon Lattimore, who was able to essentially shut down Evans last year by following him around on 80%+. I have him well behind Michael Thomas, Julio, Adams and DJ Moore in my ranks in that upper tier, and even prefer guys below now that his ownership will spike with Evans’ absence. Again, if building three-max GPP teams, you have to make some tough choices along the way. 

Here are my thoughts on Brady and this TB offense from the guide. 

Offense 

Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski coming to Tampa was the most publicized story of this NFL off-season, pandemic excluded. How these two combat “Father Time” will tell the story in TB. As they say, he (Father Time) is undefeated, which means the Golden Boy will go down for the count at one time or another. Looking into his advanced stats, you can argue he is already clinging to the top rope:

Lowest TD total (24) since 2006

Lowest TD rate (3.9) 

Lowest completion rate (60.8%) since 2013

Lowest adjusted YPA (6.6) since 2002

Lowest yards per completion (10.9) since 2008

Lowest passer rating (88.0) since 2013

Lowest DYAR (550) since 2001

Lowest DVOA (2.4%)

25th and 26th accuracy rank last two seasons 

32nd pressured completion rate (18) + 33rd in 2019

32nd clean pocket %

Every argument has a counter, and Brady’s is the lack of options at WR/TE he had in NE . Other than a (very good) veteran slot WR, he had a brutal core of pass catchers. Now, he inherits the super-duo of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to go along with a rejuvenated Gronk (so it seems) and one of my (still) favorite TE prospects, OJ Howard. Brady led the league in RZ attempts last season (6.3 per game) and will likely finish at the top of that stat once again. Last season, TB attempted 4.7 RZ pass attempts per game (10th), so I expect to see Brady back in the top-10 in RZ attempts, at least. He also remained solid on his deep pass attempts, finishing ninth (41.7%) in completion percentage on 20+ yard passes.

Saints

Emmanual Sanders comes to Bourbon Street to finally give a legit WR2 to compliment Michael Thomas and Alvin Karama. When you add Sanders to the mix with those two, plus Jared Cook (who lined up as a slot WR primarily, not a TE), you are cooking with fire. I know the Saints have gone run-heavy over the past few seasons, but I think that shifts back slightly this season when the game script allows. 

Kamara caught 16-of-17 targets from Brees in this matchup last season, throwing in an average of 14 carries per game in those contests. That makes his price on DK way too low. To get someone in an offense projected to nearly 30 points, at home on the rug, with 20 touches as probable outcome, you just need to click the button and move on. 

Kamara just signed a five-year, $75 million extension Saturday which includes just over $34 million in guarantees so I think he will be in a good mood coming into this contest. 

CORE PLAYS: Kamara, Michael Thomas (28.9 FPPG at home in 2019, lock him in on FD in cash where it is easy to roster CMC as well)

GPP ONLY: Saints D, (Brees- Kamara – Thomas), Godwin

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

AZ +7. O/U:47.5
AZ: 20 | SF: 28

Pace and play-calling 

Arizona operated at the fastest pace and threw at a top-5 rate to start 2019, which shifted to a more balanced attack with the emergence of Kenyan Drake (21st overall pass rate, fourth over their last three games). 

Cardinals 

Kenyan Drake is the Cards player I will have the highest exposure to as a run-back to my Jimmy Garoppolo/George Kittle stacks. Drake averaged over 100 total yards over his last eight, assuming the David Johnson role very effectively. The Niners were a run funnel while their opponents stayed close, finishing second against the pass and ninth against the run. Ninth is still great, but it is still the more vulnerable spot to attack this defense. Even in a blowout loss in the playoffs, Aaron Jones racked up 85 total yards and two TDs against this unit. He racked up 242 total yards in his two matchups against SF and will need to post similar numbers for AZ to hang around in this one. 

The 49ers were third in the league in points allowed per game to opposing backfields (16.8 points) and San Francisco allowed just one team to match or beat their seasonal average prior to that point, which led the league. That one game was versus Arizona in Week 9, when Drake had 19 touches for 162 yards from scrimmage. When these teams met again in Week 11, Drake had 22 touches for 80 yards but was still the RB17 (14.0 points) on the strength of six receptions.

DeAndre Hopkins should be moved all over the formation, as AZ plays the most three- and four-wide sets as any team. This will prevent him from seeing a lot of Richard Sherman, who stays home on his left side at this point in his career. His price looks like a misprint on DK at $6.8k, after seeing him between $7.5k and $8.5k for what feels like a decade. That said, there is a reason for the discount and I am not buying it. Too many guys I like in that range that are on a new team/new system after sitting out the majority of the offseason. 

49ers

Garoppolo ranked 12th or better in 10 important statistical categories/metrics for QBs last season. One of them was not FP per game, which is why he is going overlooked in this spot. I try to stay away from “BvP’ in football as I do in baseball because there are so many more predictive stats to figure out the future versus just looking at what happened before and hoping it repeats. The reason he was so efficient, yet not a difference-maker in fantasy is volume. We saw this magnified in the playoffs when SF turned arguably the most talented pass-catching TE into an offensive lineman. Now that I have told you I don’t like BvP, I am going to drop some. Garoppolo posted 28.8 and 29.7 fantasy points against this team in 2019, throwing for 741 yards and eight TDs. I think SF defense is not as good as it was and the AZ offense is better than it was. All that adds up to a good spot for Jimmy G.

Arizona’s biggest issue went unaddressed, with the Cardinals not drafting any help in the secondary. Byron Murphy was one of the worst CBs in 2019, allowing almost 2 FP per target and 139 passer rating in coverage. He will combine with Patrick Peterson and newly-acquired Dre Kirkpatrick, who was a free agent until two weeks ago. He and Peterson are over 30, so I am not expecting a return to greatness. Teams can stay away from him easily enough anyway, with holes all over the secondary. Budda Baker is solid but not in coverage. Robert Alford, another veteran CB, was put on IR during camp, leaving Arizona (outside of Peterson) with one of the worst secondaries in the league. 

Isaiah Simmons injects some life and excitement into the LB core, which was another sore spot for this D, consistently letting opposing TEs run wild. He and Chandler Jones could be a dynamic duo, but the rest of this defense leaves a lot to be desired.

Raheem Mostert: After 316 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns through four seasons of his career coming into 2019, Mostert tallied 952 yards and 10 touchdowns last year in his breakout. He registered 792 total yards and 12 touchdowns over the final eight games of 2019. 

Tevin Coleman may be out, due to his sickle cell issue and the terrible air quality in NorCal due to the tragic fires. 

That puts both Raheem Mostert and Jerick McKinnon firmly in play. As I just outlined, if the game script goes in the favor of SF early, Kyle Shanahan is more than happy to feed his RBs. They already ran at the highest rate in 2019 overall, but when up by a TD or more they cranked it up even further at over 60%. With these games becoming shootouts last year, SF RBs racked up nine grabs for 89.5 yards and one TD in those two games. I would imagine we see some Jeff Wilson and Kyle Juszczyk if Coleman sits so the usage in the passing game for McKinnon is not a lock. That said, I am going to take the risk because he possesses tremendous upside with even 8-12 touches if he is being featured as the passing down back. I have always had a crush on McKinnon, who is a SPARQ-score god, grading out in the 90th percentile in every category. 

CORE PLAYS: Kittle, Drake (GPP only)

GPP ONLY: Jimmy G. McKinnon, Mostert (prefer on FD),  (Murray + Drake + Kittle + McKinnon Stack)

Injuries 

The 49ers won’t have wide receiver Deebo Samuel for at least the first three games after the club placed him on Injured Reserve on Saturday. New IR rules during the COVID-19 pandemic lowered the minimum amount of time a player had to spend on IR from six weeks to three weeks.

Samuel spent all of training camp on the Non-Football Injury list after suffering a foot injury in the offseason. He was activated off NFI after final roster cuts, giving some reason for optimism that he’d play in the season opener.

KeeSean Johnson was put on the COVID-19 list 

09/11/2020 5:08:14 PM EST

UPDATE: Aiyuk (hamstring) remained limited Friday at practice and is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game against the Cardinals, Darren Urban of the Cardinals’ official site reports.

Top Stacks: 

SEA/ATL 

OAK/CAR

WASH/PHI 

CASH Core (FD): Lamar – CMC – Scott – Adams – Marvin – Jacobs

CASH Core (DK):  Cam – CMC – Scott – Adams – Marvin – Tonyan 

The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE: DJ Moore – Ekeler – DK Metcalf 

Underweight – Andrews – Michael Thomas (scary), ARob/Trubisky 

Low(er) owned one-offs: McKinnon (make sure Coleman is out), Parris Campbell, Mark Ingram, Dallas G, Ridley, Aaron Jones (if you fade Adams)