Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
2019 record: 8-8 | 2020 Projection: 7-9
Head coach: Matt Nagy (Third season)
Offensive coordinator: Bill Lazor (First season)
Defensive coordinator: Chuck Pagano (Second season)
Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Panther’s system, play calling and coaching breakdown:
Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown
2020 Draft Picks
Round 2, pick 43: Cole Kmet, TE, Notre Dame
Round 2, pick 50: Jaylon Johnson, CB, Utah
Round 5, pick 155: Trevis Gipson, OL, Tulsa
Round 5, pick 163: Kindle Vildor, CB, Georgia Southern
Round 5, pick 173: Darnell Mooney, WR, Tulane
Round 7, pick 226: Arlington Hambright, G, Colorado
Round 7, pick 227: Lachavious Simmons, OL, Tennessee State
Offensive Additions
QB Nick Foles, WR Ted Ginn, TE Jimmy Graham, OT/G Germain Ifedi
Defensive Additions
DE Robert Quinn, DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo, CB Artie Burns, S Tashaun Gipson, S Jordan Lucas
Offseason Losses
QB Chase Daniel, WR Taylor Gabriel, TE Trey Burton, G Kyle Long, DT Nick Williams, DE/OLB Leonard Floyd, DE/OLB Aaron Lynch, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis
Week 1
+2.5 @ DET, O/U 44.5
Team Totals: 25.5 | 21.5
Schedule
Week 2 – NYG (-5.5)
Week 3 – @ATL (+1.5)
Week 4 – IND (+1)
Week 5 – TB (TNF) (+3)
Week 6 -@CAR (-3)
Week 7 – @LAR (MNF) (+3.5)
Week 8 – NO (+4)
Week 9 – @TEN (+3)
Week 10 – MIN (+1)
Week 11 – BYE
Week 12 – @GB (+4.5)
Week 13 – DET (N/A)
Week 14 – HOU (-3)
Week 15 – @MIN (+3.5)
Week 16 – @JAX (N/A)
Week 17 – GB (pk)
Offense
The Bears offensive line was dreadful again last season, getting 3.86 adjusted line yards per carry (29th) after 3.92 in 2018 (28th). You would think the addition of David Montgomery would have still helped the overall success, but CHI actually dropped to 3.56 RB yards per carry from 3.86. For a player who got so hyped up for his yards after contact prowess coming out of college, Monty ended up with the third-worst YAC rank out of all RBs with at least 100 carries. He was being hyped up yet again coming into camp, but is banged up heading into Week 1 — many thought that paved the way for Artavis Pierce, but he was cut, leaving Tarik Cohen and Cordarrelle Patterson left on the roster with fullback/H-back Ryan Nall. That creates quite a DFS opportunity for Patterson as a $3.4k WR on DK. He has a ridiculous 7.63 YPC in 103 career attempts, with his game highs coming in consecutive games in NE when he got 10 and 11 rush attempts (21 carries/99 yards/1 TD).
In addition to having 100 TEs on the roster, Chicago has two of my favorite WRs in Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. This issue is whether this offense can support two fantasy WRs. I think it can, when taking Miller’s ADP (145 range) into account. It’s not a TB situation, where you are paying WR1 prices across the board. Even ARob is a discount when you consider his market share of the Bears targets (his total of 153 targets was fourth, and he was also fourth in weighted opportunity, which takes in target share and air yards). ARob also saw a gaudy 29.9% target share in the RZ last season (third). With that kind of usage, plus his talent profile, it is only his QB play/team that is keeping him a little more discounted for fantasy. Ted Ginn Jr. replaces Taylor Gabriel as their “speed guy” opposite ARob in three-WR sets. You would assume we see more multi-TE sets this season (35% in 2019), if nothing more than to save face for wasting their top draft pick on yet another one.
Defense
A consistent strength, CHI finished 10th in overall DVOA last year after taking first in 2018. I expect a similar type of season in 2020, where Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and newly acquired Robert Quinn create havoc up front, but the rest of the unit is league average.
Kyle Fuller fell back to earth last season, falling from second in passer rating allowed in coverage to 26th (53rd with 13.6 yards per reception allowed, up from seventh in 2019, 9.8 yards per reception allowed). He will start opposite Jaylon Johnson, a second-round draft pick who has flashed in the Bears zone scheme which landed him the starting gig. They will stick with Buster Skrine in the slot, who was much better within the structure of the Bears zone scheme. He saw his FPPT number fall from 2.00 (74th) to 1.32 (eighth). I know we loved to pick on this guy while he was with the Jets, but he was fourth in yards per reception allowed, and 13th in FPPG allowed in coverage. He was not a profitable guy to target in 2019.
Bets
Camp Notes/Updates
(Source: Bears.com)
- Do-it-all Cordarrelle Patterson seems to be a full-time tailback now, but he’ll still line up at receiver on occasion and he’ll continue to play on special teams.
- Running back Ryan Nall met the media and he sounded confident that the run game would be better than a year ago. “The difference between this year and last year is that we’re not going to get away from it. We’re going to continue to harp on it and pound and pound and pound.”
- At wide receiver, Nagy said that Anthony Miller “might have had the best training camp of a lot of players on this team.” Miller had a slower start to camp after rehabbing from his shoulder surgery, but he’s been a full participant at practice of late.
- Rookie wideout Darnell Mooney was getting some buzz from the beat reporters and coaches during camp — he did spend some time working with the ones — and his place on the roster was secured.
- The entire tight end group has shined which should help Bears fans get over that craptastic collection that didn’t do much in 2019. Their top three of Jimmy Graham, Demetrius Harris and rookie Cole Kmet should lead to Nagy getting back to what he wants to do offensively.
2019 record: 3-12-1 | 2020 Projection: 8-8
Head coach: Matt Patricia (Third year)
Offensive coordinator: Darrell Bevell (Second year)
Defensive coordinator: Cory Undlin (First year)
Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Panther’s system, play calling and coaching breakdown:
Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown
2020 Draft Picks
Round 1, pick 3: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
Round 2, pick 35: D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia
Round 3, pick 67: Julian Okwara, LB, Notre Dame
Round 3, pick 75: Jonah Jackson, G, Ohio State
Round 4, pick 109: John Simpson, OL, Clemson
Round 4, pick 121: Logan Stenberg, G, Kentucky
Round 5, pick 166: Quintez Cephus, WR, Wisconsin
Round 5, pick 172: Jason Huntley, RB, New Mexico State
Round 6, pick 197: John Penisini, DT, Utah
Round 7, pick 235: Jashon Cornell, DE, Ohio State
Offensive Additions
QB Chase Daniel, WR Geronimo Allison (opted out), OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, RB Adrian Peterson
Defensive Additions
DT Danny Shelton, DT Nick Williams, LB Jamie Collins, LB Reggie Ragland, LB Elijah Lee, CB Desmond Trufant, CB Darryl Roberts, S Duron Harmon, S Jayron Kearse.
Offseason Losses
RB J.D. McKissic, TE Logan Thomas, OT Rick Wagner, G/C Graham Glasgow, DT Mike Daniels, DT Damon Harrison, DT A’Shawn Robinson, CB Rashaan Melvin, S Tavon Wilson.
Week 1
-2.5 vs CHI O/U 44.5
Implied Team Totals: 26.5 | 24.5
Remaining Schedule
Week 2 – @GB (+5.5)
Week 3 – @AZ (N/A)
Week 4 – NO (N/A)
Week 5 – BYE
Week 6 – @JAX (N/A)
Week 7 – @ATL (N/A)
Week 8 – IND (N/A)
Week 9 – @MIIN (N/A)
Week 10 – WAS (N/A)
Week 11 – @CAR (N/A)
Week 12 – HOU (N/A)
Week 13 – @CHI (N/A)
Week 14 – GB (N/A)
Week 15 – @TEN (N/A)
Week 16 – TB (N/A)
Week 17 – MIN (N/A)
Offense
When looking at the 2019 Lions, you just need to run the Stafford splits to get the story. In eight games with the QB, they averaged 25.5 PPG on 312 passing yards (8.57 YPA). Without, they plummeted to 17 PPG on 6.04 YPA (211 passing yards). If he plays the entire season, I think they win it.
More on Stafford — He was fifth in fantasy points per dropback, second in ANY/A, and was attempting 7-plus deep pass attempts per game. He also ranked first per NFL Next Gen Stats’ aggressiveness metric.
He now adds a legit talent in the backfield (D’Andre Swift) who can catch passes and create big plays to go along with two dynamic WRs (Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones) and a young TE who profiles like Travis Kelce (T.J. Hockenson). All the pieces are here, on both sides of the ball, so let’s see if they can stay out of their own way and cash that +600 prop (listed below).
Defense
Per prideofdetroit.com. “Defensive line depth is … worrisome. The Lions chose to keep just six defensive linemen, parting ways with all the newly added players (Kevin Wilkins, Will Clarke and Albert Huggins). But the bigger surprise was cutting an experienced player like Kevin Strong. Now the Lions have their four starters: Nick Williams, Da’Shawn Hand, Danny Shelton and Trey Flowers. But behind them are just two backups: Romeo Okwara and sixth-round rookie John Penisini.
For a position group that dealt with a lot of injuries last year, the depth here is more than concerning. Don’t be surprised if the Lions go out and try to find some big bodies very soon.”
The secondary is promising, as long as Desmond Trufant can stay healthy. I have outlined how his struggles have been directly correlated to his health — when he is at full strength, he is still one of the better CBs. Trufant will also be asked to mentor Jeff Okudah, the fourth pick in the 2020 draft, who will start opposite Trufant in Week 1. Young CBs will have some growing pains, but as far as raw talent goes these two are as good as it gets. Toss in uber talent Jayron Kearse (comes in from Minnesota, suspended for the first three games), along with Duron Harmon and this is a completely revamped secondary (minus Justin Coleman).
Coleman will continue to cover the slot, and his play is important. He allowed the No. 70 passer rating in coverage last season after finishing top-20 in 2018. Teams went after Coleman last season, with him seeing 29.1% of opposing targets, one of the highest target rates of any starting CB.
Ex-Patriots Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton and Harmon join Trey Flowers to bolster this defense on three levels in Patricia’s attempt to create a replica of the NE defense.
Bets
Camp Notes/Updates
Adrian Peterson being acquired is not a big deal for my love of D’Andre Swift. Brett Whitefield sums up the move very well. “AP to DET is as simple as AP>>>Bo. By a fairly significant margin, even at 35 years old. In the end, it’s not really a needle mover either way.”
2019 record: 13-3 | 2020 Projection: 7-9
Head coach: Matt LaFleur (Second season)
Offensive coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett (Second season)
Defensive coordinator: Mike Pettine (Third season)
Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Panther’s system, play calling and coaching breakdown:
Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown
2020 Draft Picks
Round 1, pick 26: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
Round 2, pick 62: A.J. Dillon, RB, Boston College
Round 3, pick 94: Josiah Deguara, TE, Cincinnati
Round 5, pick 175: Kamal Martin, LB, Minnesota
Round 6, pick 192: Jon Runyan, G, Michigan
Round 6, pick 208: Jake Hanson, C, Oregon
Round 6, pick 209: Simon Stepaniak, OT, Indiana
Round 7, pick 236: Vernon Scott, S, TCU
Round 7, pick 242: Jonathan Garvin, DE, Miami
Offensive Additions
WR Devin Funchess (since opted out), OT Rick Wagner
Defensive Additions
Offseason Losses
FB Dan Vitale, WR Geronimo Allison, TE Jimmy Graham, OT Bryan Bulaga, DE/OLB Kyler Fackrell, LB Blake Martinez, LB B.J. Goodson, CB Tramon Williams.
Week 1
+1 @MINN, O/U 45.5
Remaining Schedule
Week 2 – DET (-5.5)
Week 3 – @NO (+5.5)
Week 4 – ATL (-5.5)
Week 5 – BYE
Week 6 – @TB (+3)
Week 7 – @HOU (-1.5)
Week 8 – MIN (-2.5)
Week 9 – @SF (+6.5)
Week 10 – JAX (N/A)
Week 11 – @IND (+2)
Week 12 – CHI (-4.5)
Week 13 – PHI (N/A)
Week 14 – @DET (N/A)
Week 15 – CAR(-9)
Week 16 – TEN (-3)
Week 17 – @CHI (pk)
With games against SF, TB, TEN, INDY, PHI, out of conference, and an improved Lions team, I don’t think the wins come as easily this season.
Offense
I still can’t believe this team was 13-3, nor can the history books. Per FO, the 2019 Packers were the second worst 13-3 team since 1985. They followed that season up by having arguably the worst draft and free agent offseason, basically standing firm based on their “success.” Don’t get me wrong, there is a lot of talent on this roster, but a 13-win team they are not. Vegas was not fooled, setting their win total prop at nine with the juice heavily to the under (-139 at MGM).
There is very little you don’t know about this show, as it has all the same characters back from last season. A.J. Dillon is a name to know as they used their second round pick on him. That said, he comes into Week 1 behind Jamaal Williams on the depth chart. I don’t do draft analysis, but this has to be the worst draft in history. Using a second to draft a RB, the most replaceable commodity, after you trade up to grab a QB, with Aaron Jones and Aaron Rodgers on the roster, is dumbfounding. It will be interesting to see how they split the opportunity, as Jones’ usage splits are something I have been harping on for quite a while. When the Pack decided to get him 15-plus touches, his efficiency and production skyrocket into a true RB1. In 26 games with 10-plus carries, Jones is averaging 19.75 FPPG on 14.88 carries (4 targets). It gets even better when you reach 15-plus. In those nine games, he has delivered 26 FPPG on 19.56 attempts and 4.89 targets. Of course, volume will increase production, but with Jones it also increases his effectiveness. He is averaging 5.77 YPC in the nine games with 15-plus and 4.53 YPC in 29 games with 15 or fewer carries. I understand there are many reasons that can drive splits in these short samples, but football by definition is a short sample. It takes a football player 10 years to compile what a baseball player does in one. Therefore, if you keep waiting for a split to get enough samples to keep the math guys happy, that player will be ready for retirement.
?Davante Adams? is the alpha dog, with the chance to lead the league in targets and target share. Last year he had a 39% red-zone target share (71.4% catch rate on 21 targets for 3 TDs in 12 games). In 2018, he had 32 RZ targets (15 games), which translated to 12 TDs. With no new players to take any of those targets from Adams. Jimmy Graham’s departure actually makes more red-zone opportunity open up, unless you think Robert Tonyan will absorb Jimmy G’s 12%. ?Allen Lazard? finished 2019 strong, seeing 15.33% of targets (22.3% of air yards), which was two times the next receiver, Geronimo Allison, who is no longer in GB.
Defense
One thing GB has done well is constructing a defense scheme and stockpiling talent to carry that plan out. I talk about teams that have become good against the run putting increased pressure on their pass defense by forcing opponents into the more efficient style of football. The Pack have gone the other (sharp) way, finishing top-10 in pass DVOA and 27th in rush D. I assume similar splits again this season with GB having very little turn over on defense. The theory is built around stopping the KCs of the league, which leaves them vulnerable to a power attack like Tennessee.
Looking at their schedule, they have a rough draw with non-conference games against NO, SF, PHI, TB, TEN and IND. They also will play two against the improved Lions, a game against Deshaun Watson, which is never a gimme, and of course, the four other games against their NFC North rivals.
Bets
Camp Notes/Updates
- Sophomore Jace Sternberger simply isn’t ready after catching just three passes as a rookie and spending part of camp on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Tonyan has 14 catches for 177 yards and two scores over the last two seasons while flashing in the preseasons at times. With Jimmy Graham now in Chicago, his departure opened 60 targets from last year. Tonyan could have some spiked weeks as an athletic former college wideout.
2019 record: 10-6 | 2020 Projection: 8-8
Head coach: Mike Zimmer (Seventh season)
Offensive coordinator: Gary Kubiak (First season, was an offensive “advisor” last season)
Defensive coordinator: Andre Patterson and Adam Zimmer (First year, this is still Zimmer’s D)
Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Panther’s system, play calling and coaching breakdown:
Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown
2020 Draft Picks
Round 1, pick 22: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
Round 1, pick 31: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU
Round 2, pick 58: Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State
Round 3, pick 89: Cameron Dantzler, CB, Mississippi State
Round 4, pick 117: D.J. Wonnum, DE, South Carolina
Round 4, pick 130: James Lynch, DL, Baylor
Round 4, pick 132: Troy Dye, LB, Oregon
Round 5, pick 169: Harrison Hand, CB, Temple
Round 5, pick 176: K.J. Osborn, WR, Miami
Offensive Additions
WR Tajae Sharpe
Defensive Additions
DE Anthony Zettel, NT Michael Pierce
Offseason Losses
WR Stefon Diggs, G Josh Kline, DE Everson Griffen, DT Linval Joseph, CB Xavier Rhodes, CB Mackensie Alexander, CB Trae Waynes, S Jayron Kearse.
Week 1
-1 GB, O/U 45.5
Team Totals: 25.5 | 21.5
Schedule
Week 2 – @IND (+1)
Week 3 – TEN (-3)
Week 4 – @HOU (-1.5)
Week 5 – @SEA (N/A)
Week 6 -ATL (-4)
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – @GB (+2.5)
Week 9 – DET (N/A)
Week 10 – @CHI (MON) (-1)
Week 11 – DAL (-2)
Week 12 – CAR (-7)
Week 13 – JAX (N/A)
Week 14 – @TB (+3)
Week 15 – CHI (-3.5)
Week 16 – @NO (Fri/Xmas) (+5.5)
Week 17 – @DET (N/A)
Offense
Gary Kubiak takes over as OC, which means more run first offense, centered around Dalvin Cook. Kubiak is the zone-blocking guru who served as an offensive consultant last year when Minnesota ran it on 48.3% of plays (fourth-highest). We may see a slight uptick in that rate, especially with the defense likely to take a step back. That is good for his fantasy value, but he could see some regression in efficiency due to the loss of Stefon Diggs. I like rookie Justin Jefferson and have been drafting him a ton in best ball drafts, but Diggs is an underrated stud, and counting on a rookie WR to fill the void is a big ask (41% MS Air yards). This offense does not give you a ton to worry about on the outside with Diggs gone and Jefferson profiling more like a speedy slit guy than an outside WR. I always preferred Thielen in the slot as well, so even with the expected increase in targets, I am a bit worried about how he deals with a team’ best CB on the outside and/or double teams/schemes to stop him. Olabisi Johnson will probably be the guy to line up opposite Thielen on most 2-WR sets, with both Irv Smith (11% target share in 2019) and Kyle Rudolph (10% target share, but tied for a team-high 6 TDs).
Defense
This roster and especially this unit had a major overhaul, shedding over $11 million in salary, the third-most in the last six seasons by any team. Their secondary was turned over after finishing fifth in pass DVOA (third in PFFs coverage grade).
Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes, Mackensie Alexander, Trae Waynes and Jayron Kearse have all moved on, but this is still a talented group that will have its moments this season. Eric Kendricks is a bona fide stud at LB, and the Vikes can boast the best pair of safeties in Anthony Harris and Harrison Smith. Combine those guys with Danielle Hunter and all the draft picks (six of first eight selected on defense), and the Vikes could be back in the conversation as one of the best defenses in the league sooner than later.
Late-camp update: The Vikings made a big move, trading for Pro Bowl defensive end Yannick Ngakoue. Minnesota sent a 2021 second-round pick, and a 2022 conditional fifth-round pick to Jacksonville in the deal to pair him with Hunter, giving Minnesota two Pro Bowl edge rushers.
Bets
Camp Notes/Updates
- Nose tackle Michael Pierce opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns.
- Irv Smith has generated plenty of buzz in training camp and could be in line for a major role in the offense in 2020. He had 36 catches for 311 yards and a pair of scores as a rookie in 2019, and he made plenty of splash plays in camp.
