Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The path to points in fantasy football is paved by volume. The foundation of that volume is pace or how many plays are run in a given game. That can vary widely from team to team and the context of the perspective game. Every week, I'll take a swan dive into the deep end of the pace and play-calling pool to give you the layout on possible game scenarios and the edges they can present.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Fireworks are sure to ensue in this one. The Chiefs, as noted by their top nine passing rates regardless of the script, will look to take advantage of a burnable Texans’ secondary. The last two meetings between these teams have resulted in an average of 68.5 total points scored. The Texans are the road underdog here, and despite their high scoring ability, their pace nor passing rates jump off the page. What the Texans lack in volume, they make with big-play ability, ranking 11th (tied) in yards per play and fourth in deep passing last season.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons
Many of the same principles that hold for Deshaun Watson also hold for Russell Wilson in a more extreme fashion. Seattle is also ranked 11th in yards per play, but Wilson is hampered by an even slower and less pass-happy offense. Two things are set in stone for this game. Matt Ryan will air the ball out all game, and Seattle will run no matter what. The Falcons rank inside the top four in passing rate agnostic of game script. The Falcons establishing an early lead and holding it could favor fantasy gamers. Atlanta was ninth and second in neutral and positive game script pace but fell to 16th when trailing.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
From a pace and passing rate perspective, this game is simply nasty. This contest is easily the lowest total on the slate (39.5) by a wide margin. For the Jets pass catchers to see more volume, New York needs to command this game. Last year, in positive game scripts, the Jets ranked third in passing rate, with their pace only dropping off marginally. This unlikely outcome would also benefit the Bills offense from a pace perspective but hurt from a passing outlook. The Bills had amongst the lowest passing rates in the league when trailing last year.
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
This contest could be a sneaky pass-heavy affair. Last season with Matthew Stafford under center, the Lions were among the top of the league in passing rate when trailing or leading. If the Lions offense can roar early, Mitchell Trubisky could fall backward into a ceiling game. When the Bears were in catchup mode, they ranked eighth in pace and 12th in passing rate. The Bears in positive game script though, could turn their entire offense into molasses. Stafford coming out blazing is imperative for this game to surprise.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
This game could unfold in several ways. If the Vikings lead, as the current line of 3.5 suggests, they will play slow and lean on their running game. Last season, the Vikings ranked seventh and second in neutral and positive script rushing rates. This would toss the Packers on the back of Aaron Rodgers, who ranked 11th in negative script passing last year. However, if the Packers can shock the offseason haters against a weakened Vikings defense, this might be Kirk Cousins pressing his foot down on the gas and feeding Adam Thielen and company.
Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Cam Newton's first game in Foxborough might heavily disappoint if Miami has their way. For all of the smoke Chan Gailey gets for being an offensive genius, the last time we saw his offense on the field, it looked like Elijah Holyfield running a 40 yard dash. While Josh McDaniels, even with a new quarterback in Newton, could still push the pace, the play volume is likely capped by Gailey's slow and steady offense. With the Dolphins adding pieces to their backfield and defense in the offseason on paper, this looks like a snail's pace game of keep away.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Football Team
The new-look Washington offense will be on display under their new offensive coordinator Scott Turner, who is going to blow last year's statistics out of the water. The pace and passing rate are set to explode for this team. Dwayne Haskins' processing ability and maturation will determine how quickly and often they're throwing this year. With the Eagles favored here, hope is not lost for Carson Wentz and his aerial weapons. In positive game scripts, the Eagles were still ninth in pace and 14th in passing rate. An even mildly limited version of Miles Sanders could push those numbers higher this week.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Carolina Panthers
The pace numbers for the Panthers will probably look eerily similar to last season's with new offensive commander Joe Brady at the helm. Last year at LSU, Brady ranked inside the top 20 percentile in plays per game and passing rate. The Raiders defense will again be a bottom of the league unit, but negative game scripts won't be a problem for Josh Jacobs. The Raiders were the sixth-heaviest run team in neutral and negative game scripts last year. Jon Gruden will likely try to exploit the Panthers' porous run defense regardless of the scoreboard.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jay Gruden's first game at the Jacksonville offense's helm could look very similar to last year's product in terms of passing volume with a slight uptick if trailing. In 2016-2018, Gruden's offense averaged a 56% passing rate in neutral situations, but that number increased to 74% when his team was behind. With the Colts favored here, Gardner Minshew could be dropping back to pass more than expected. Frank Reich might also shock the masses here with more passing volume than anticipated if the Jaguars can keep the game close. Last season, the Colts ranked 30th in neutral script passing rate (52%). In Reich's previous three seasons, his offense averaged 61% passing when games were close. That number fell off a table when his offenses were leading, though. In 2016-2018, Reich's offense averaged a 39.6% passing rate when leading. If the Jaguars are unable to stay within striking distance, Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor could be in store for healthy workloads.
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Browns run defense will likely let the Ravens have their way on the ground. The favored Ravens will lean on their rushing and slow play speed. Last year, in neutral and positive game environments, Baltimore was the sixth and fourth slowest team, ranking no lower than the fifth-heaviest rushing team. If Kevin Stefanski’s Browns resemble last season’s Vikings, then Baker Mayfield and his pass-catchers could have a busy day. Last season, the Vikings ranked sixth in pace and passing rate while trailing.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers play volume could jolt many from their couch cushions this Sunday. The last time we saw Tyrod Taylor under center, the Bills offense ranked no lower than 14th in pace while noting that they ranked 8th in positive game scripts. The caveat here is that will bump the rushing volume for all the Chargers backs involved this weekend. In 2016, the Bills ranked no higher than 24th in passing rate in any game situation. The Chargers are also presented with the perfect pushover defensive matchup to run all day long. The Bengals will take to the air if last year’s attack plan with Andy Dalton is any benchmark. In Dalton’s 13 games played, the Bengals were third in passing rate at 65%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
This game is one of the few that can rival the Chiefs and Texans for the highest total when all is said and done. The pivotal piece here is the Buccaneers need to come out swinging and put points up on the board early. If that falls into place, the Saints and Drew Brees will switch on their former pass-happy ways. Last season, Brees led a passing offense that was second and seventh in passing rate in negative and neutral game situations. With a lead, the Saints, however, dropped to 16th. Arians and Brady will push the envelope all game, especially if they’re trailing or leading. Last year, the Buccaneers were ranked fourth and fifth in negative and positive game flow pace.
Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
This game is the hare versus the tortoise. The Cardinals will run at breakneck speed all game long while the 49ers will crawl. The oddity of the 49ers is that they were the slowest team in the NFL when trailing. As long as Kyle Shanahan can effectively run the ball, he will, as evidenced by his top four rushing rates in all game environments.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams
The fact that this game is not on the main slate still saddens me as I type this breakdown. This game will feature two offenses that will run a bevy of plays this week. The Rams ranked inside the top eight in pace in all situations. The Cowboys were especially quick in close games or when playing catchup, ranking second in pace in both. Dak Prescott and Jared Goff will be centerpieces of their offensive attacks. In particular, Prescott could see another bump in passing volume if the Cowboys find themselves down in this game. Kellen Moore dialed up passing plays on 72% of snaps when trailing in 2019. In 2017-2018, Mike McCarthy averaged a 75% passing rate when his teams were behind.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Giants
Passing volume is coming back to Steel City this Sunday. With Ben Roethlisberger under center, the pace and passing will get a welcome shock to the system. In 2018, the Steelers ranked no lower than 13th in pace and seventh in passing rate regardless of how their games went. Even if Roethlisberger and the Steelers are blowing out the Giants, don’t look for them to stop airing the ball. The Giants are an enigma under Jason Garrett. Which version of Jason Garrett we will see is the great question. During his early years with Dallas, his team ranked routinely inside the top 10 in passing attempts before converting to a run-heavy approach in 2014.
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
The Titans will not surprisingly lean on Derrick Henry in their visit to Mile High, especially if leading here. In 2019, Tennessee ranked 31st and 32nd in passing when games were close or out in front. If that comes to fruition with the Broncos now under Pat Shurmur, Drew Lock will be heaving it plenty in the thin Denver air. In neutral and negative game flows last season, Shurmur dialed up passing plays at the fourth and seventh highest rates. The quiet winners with this passing volume uptick could be Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay. Last season, the Titans allowed the ninth-most receiving yards (757) to opposing backs.
