MagicSportsGuide – AFC South

2019 record: 6-10  | 2020 Projection: 
Head coach: Doug Marrone (Fourth year)
Offensive coordinator: Jay Gruden (First year)
Defensive coordinator: Todd Wash (Fifth year)

Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Jaguars system, play calling and coaching breakdown:

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown  

2020 Draft Picks

The Jaguars made the most of the fourth round with three picks, with Ben Bartch being one of the biggest steals. The tackle is a converted tight end who possesses great speed in pass pro and plays with explosiveness. Bartch is the type of player who has great reaction speed and awareness, as he’s able to stay with the play and dominate on the offensive line. To round out the draft, the team added to its depth at QB by taking Oregon State’s Jake Luton in the sixth round and taking another CB in Chris Claybrooks in the seventh round.

Round 1, pick 9: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

Round 1, pick 20: K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU

Round 2, pick 42: Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado

Round 3, pick 73: Davon Hamilton, DT, Ohio State

Round 4, pick 116: Ben Bartch, OT, St. John’s University at Minnesota

Round 4, pick 137 (from 49ers through Broncos): Josiah Scott, CB, Michigan State

Round 4, pick 140 (from Bears): Shaquille Quarterman, LB, Miami

Round 5, pick 157 (from Ravens through Falcons): Daniel Thomas, S, Auburn

Round 5, pick 165 (from Rams): Collin Johnson, WR, Texas

Round 6, pick 189: Jake Luton, QB, Oregon State

Offensive Additions

QB Mike Glennon, RB Chris Thompson, TE Tyler Eifert

Defensive Additions

DE Cassius Marsh, DE Aaron Lynch, DT Al Woods, DT Rodney Gunter, LB Joe Schobert, CB Rashaan Melvin

Offseason Losses

QB Nick Foles, WR Marqise Lee, TE Seth DeValve, OT Cedric Ogbuehi, DT Calais Campbell, DT Akeem Spence, CB A.J. Bouye, Yannick Ngakoue

Week 1

+9 vs. IND, O/U 45

If this Week 1 line against the Colts is an indication of the season, yikes. Most of their future game lines were taken off the board, except Week 2, where they are getting 12 points @ TEN, which is likely a value compared to what we see at kickoff (-13.5 is my guess). I estimate at least seven of their games will have them as double-digit dogs.

Schedule

Week 2 – @TEN (+12)
Week 3 – MIA (Thu) (N/A)
Week 4 – @CIN (N/A)
Week 5 – @HOU (N/A)
Week 6 – DET (N/A)
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – @LAC (N/A)
Week 9 – HOU (N/A)
Week 10 – @GB (N/A)
Week 11 – PIT (N/A)
Week 12 -CLE (N/A)
Week 13 – @MIN (N/A)
Week 14 – TEN (N/A)
Week 15 – @BAL (N/A)
Week 16 – CHI (N/A)
Week 17 – @IND (N/A)

Offense

The Jaguars have a top-5 schedule in terms of projected pass defense efficiency, per Warren Sharp. This sets up very well for all the skill position players in combination with a defense that finished 29th overall in 2019. By my unofficial count, at least seven of Jacksonville’s games will have them as a double-digit underdog, creating a ton of opportunity for my boy, D.J. Chark. I know everyone has hopped on the Chark bandwagon at this point, but those who read my article know I am his biggest fanboy. Playing him in Week 5 at low ownership (40 DK points) was one of the more enjoyable performances of the year for me. He is the alpha coming in to this season, and I expect his 21.8% target share to go into the 24-25% zone, which is where WR1 usage starts for me. Chris Conley is listed as the No. 2, but I, like many, think that designation and usage will go to second round wideout Laviska Shenault. He’s a big, physical WR who also has a nice speed and strength combo, making him a threat after the catch. Like many young players coming into the league this season, he has more risk. We have no preseason games to see how he is picking up the offense, or who he is getting snaps with, etc. That said, I am not a big preseason guy. I bet on talent and opportunity and Shenault has both. 

Defense 

Jaguars opponents threw a league-high 28% of passes to their No. 1 receivers, so they smartly used their top draft pick on a CB, C.J. Henderson. They are likely to have to start the rookie immediately, with Tre Herndon and Rashaan Melvin the other options. D.J. Hayden played well in the slot again last year, but the rest of this interior is going to be dreadful once again. Whether it was injury related or not, Myles Jack was part of the worst LB core of 2019, per PFF last year. Opposing RBs picked up 5.39 YPC against these guys.

They signed Joe Schobert, who is good in coverage and bad against the run. I thought this was an odd signing considering how badly they got run on in 2019 (31.4 FPPG allowed to RBs). They allowed 6 yards per play and 24.8 PPG. If all this doesn’t sound bad enough, they also shipped Yannick Ngakoue, putting a lot of pressure on their other first round pick, K’Lavon Chaisson, to step up immediately. 

In summary, the Jaguars are going to struggle on defense.

Bets

Camp Notes/Updates 

• Jaguars defensive tackle Taven Bryan was “100%” through the weekend, Marrone says. Bryan has been dealing with a bone bruise in his left knee that had him sidelined for much the tail end of training camp. Source: BigCatCountry.com
• Running back Ryquell Armstead will be out for a while. On the team’s reserve/COVID-19 list for the second time since training camp began, Armstead won’t be available for quite some time, Marrone says. “I can’t put a real timetable on it, but he’ll be out for a while.” This dude has been sick for a while, so first wish him the best. On the football side of things, can’t imagine he is pumping iron or running marathons with COVID, so to expect him to come back this year and contribute in a committee backfield is crazy. I would drop him in all formats. Source: Yardbarker.com
• The Jaguars have promoted Mike Glennon from the practice squad to the active roster, per a club announcement. Glennon, who will serve as the team’s third quarterback behind Gardner Minshew and rookie Jake Luton, will take the place of linebacker Quincy Williams, who has been placed on IR.
• Luton, a sixth-round pick, pulled off a training camp upset over Glennon and Joshua Dobbs. Still, the Jaguars didn’t want to let the 30-year-old get away. After dropping Glennon from the roster, they quickly scooped him up and stashed him on the practice squad. It’s pretty unusual to see a player with Glennon’s experience on the p-squad, but this is an unusual year, to say the least. The Eagles just made a similar move to backstop their QBs by signing 41-year-old Josh McCown to their practice squad for extra insurance under center.
• In related moves, the Jags released cornerback Tramaine Brock from IR while adding defensive tackle Daniel Ekuale and former Eagles cornerback Sidney Jones.
   

2019 record: 9-7  | 2020 Projection: 7-9
Head coach: Bill O’Brien 
Offensive coordinator: Tim Kelly
Defensive coordinator: Anthony Weaver

Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Texans system, play calling and coaching breakdown:

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown  

Lots of parallels with Bill O’Brien and Pete Carroll, as neither can get out of their own way. 

2020 Draft Picks

Round 2, pick 40: Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU

Round 3, pick 90: Jonathan Greenard, LB, Florida

Round 4, pick 126: Charlie Heck, OT, North Carolina

Round 4, pick 141 (from Dolphins): John Reid, CB, Penn State

Round 5, pick 171: Isaiah Coulter, WR, Rhode Island

Offensive Additions

RB David Johnson, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Randall Cobb, OT Brent Qvale, S Jaylen Watkins, S Eric Murray

Defensive Additions

RB Carlos Hyde, RB Lamar Miller, WR DeAndre Hopkins, NT D.J. Reader, S Jahleel Addae.

Week 1

+10 vs. @KC (Thu), O/U 54.5

Schedule

The Texans don’t have a favorable schedule, having to come out against KC-BAL-PIT. They also get GB and TEN in their first five games. The end of the season is no picnic either, with two games on the road against above-average defenses and one against their rival and division favorite, the Tennessee Titans. 

Week 2 – BAL (+5.5)
Week 3 – @PIT (+4.5)
Week 4 – MIN (+1.5)
Week 5 – JAX (N/A)
Week 6 – @TEN (+3)
Week 7 – GB (+1.5)
Week 8 – BYE
Week 9 – @JAX  (N/A)
Week 10 – @CLE (+1.5)
Week 11 – NE (N/A)
Week 12 – @DET (Thu) (N/A)
Week 13 – IND (-1)
Week 14 – @CHI (+3)
Week 15 – @IND (Sat) (+4.5)
Week 16 – CIN (-6)
Week 17 – TEN (pk)

Offense

DeAndre Hopkins, the face of the franchise for so many years, is in AZ. I will spare you from my analysis of this debacle, as you have heard it for months already. Randall Cobb had a solid first year in Dallas, catching 55 passes for 828 yards and three touchdowns. He should see a stream of targets from Deshaun Watson, in addition to the speedsters, Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller. I actually really like this offense if David Johnson returns to his early 2019 form. With Watson spreading the ball around more, defenses will have more to focus on. I also think Duke Johnson could have been that guy, so if David Johnson gets hurt or can’t perform, I don’t think they will miss him as much as many do. Watson is that dude, ranking top-10 in 12 metrics that matter at QB, including all the rushing stats. The biggest issue I have with him is O’Brien, the slow pace and heavy rush rate. 

Defense 

The Texans secondary is the concern, which is a plus for the offense, as this team could end up in some shoutouts. Lonnie Johnson was not good as a rookie, and Vernon Hargreaves III is a guy we have been targeting in DFS for years. They signed Eric Murray, but he is a better run stopper than a coverage guy, so again, the secondary could struggle. Per FO, Houston had the worst DVOA in the league on short-to-intermediate routes, including getting torn up by opposing RBs in the passing game. Another interesting note from FO, Houston ranked seventh in defensive DVOA in the first quarter of games, but 30th for the rest of the game. I will be paying attention to this on Thursday, as it may provide an in-game bet. 

Bets

Camp Notes/Updates 

• Houston Texans tight end Kahale Warring didn’t have a rookie season in 2019 due to his placement on injured reserve. However, his growth from Year 1 to Year 2 has been evident.According to tight end Darren Fells, the 6-5, 250-pound former water polo player has taken strides in his development during the advent of the 2020 season. “He’s definitely made huge growth this year,” Fells said. “He’s gotten a lot of opportunity compared to last year where he got hurt and didn’t have the opportunity to grow as a player. He’s been out there and I’ve seen a lot of growth from him.” One of the first successes Warring obtained was the third and final tight end spot on the Texans’ 53-man roster. Warring beat out former 2018 sixth-round pick Jordan Thomas for the roster spot. Thomas is now on the Arizona Cardinals’ practice squad.
• Texans’ initial 53-man roster includes wide receiver Keke Coutee, per league sources. Texans are terminating offensive tackle Brent Qvale‘s contract, per sources, a procedural move and a precursor to being re-signed quickly, per Aaron Wilson.

2019 record: 9-7  | 2020 Projection: 10-6 
Head coach: Frank Reich (Third year)
Offensive coordinator: Nick Sirianni (Third year)
Defensive coordinator: Matt Eberflus (Third year)

Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Colts system, play calling and coaching breakdown:

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown

2020 Draft Picks

Round 2, pick 34: Michael Pittman Jr., WR, USC

Round 2, pick 41: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

Round 3, pick 85: Justin Blackmon, S, Utah

Round 4, pick 122: Jacob Eason, QB, Washington

Round 5, pick 149 (from Lions): Danny Pinter, OL, Ball State

Round 6, pick 193: Robert Windsor, DT, Penn State

Round 6, pick 211 (from Jets via Chiefs): Isaiah Rodgers, CB, UMass

Round 6, pick 212 (from Patriots): Dezmon Patmon, WR, Washington State

Round 6, pick 213 (from Patriots): Jordan Glasgow, S, Michigan

Offensive Additions

QB Philip Rivers, TE Trey Burton

Defensive Additions

DT DeForest Buckner, DT Sheldon Day, CB Xavier Rhodes, CB T.J. Carrie

Offseason Losses

QB Brian Hoyer, RB Jonathan Williams, WR Devin Funchess, TE Eric Ebron, OT/G Joe Haeg, DE Jabaal Sheard, CB Pierre Desir, S Clayton Geathers, K Adam Vinatieri

Week 1

-7.5  vs. @JAX, O/U 44.5

Schedule

Week 2 – MIN (-1)
Week 3 – NYJ (-6.5)
Week 4 – @CHI (-1)
Week 5 – @CLE (+1)
Week 6 – CIN (-8)
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – @DET (N/A)
Week 9 – BAL (+3)
Week 10 – @TEN (Thu) (+2)
Week 11 – GB (-2)
Week 12 – TEN (-2.5)
Week 13 – @HOU (+1)
Week 14 – @LV (-1.5)
Week 15 – HOU (Sat) (-4.5)
Week 16 – @PIT (+2)
Week 17 – JAX (N/A)

Offense

Philip Rivers comes in for Jacoby Brissett, which may not seem like a huge upgrade, but statistically, it is. Last season, when analyzing their expected points added (EPA), which calculates down, distance and field position at the start of a play before contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play. In 2019, despite what felt like a drop off for Rivers, he still finished in the top-14 in this metric and 12th in positive play rate, per Sharp Football. Rivers was even better (like most QBs) in a clean pocket, seeing his efficiency or EPA jump more than 2x. Now Rivers gets to play with one of the league’s best lines, which, in combo with his quick release time (Brissett took an average of 2.93 seconds to release the ball, second-longest of any quarterback), should have the Colts (along with their efficient running game) in the top tier of offenses this season.

The issue for us is pace, Indianapolis (like the Chargers) operated at a snail’s pace last season, with both teams in the bottom seven in pace. If they are content to grind clock, it will be frustrating for us fantasy folks, especially with three RBs potentially eating into each other’s workload. As much as I love Jonathan Taylor, I don’t see Marlon Mack just disappearing without an injury. The same goes for Nyheim Hines and the passing down work. Again, would love it all to go to Taylor, but I would be (very) surprised if that happened. 

Defense 

The defense was just below league average in terms of overall DVOA, but they have studs at all levels, like Darius Leonard and Justin Houston. The secondary was young, but the addition of veteran Xavier Rhodes and T.J. Carrie changes that a bit. I don’t really get this move, as it appears his days of being a dominant CB are well behind him. Rhodes allowed an 84% catch rate in coverage last season,and he also led the NFL with 139 penalty yards, which tells you all you need to know about what direction his skills are heading. They will need Rock Ya-Sin to progress into a No. 1 CB. Last year, teams stayed away from the talented Ya-Sin, targeting him at the second-lowest rate of any CB, but when they did attack him, he wasn’t great, allowing just under 2 FPPT. 

Bets

Camp Notes/Updates 

• The Colts will be returning all five of their starters on the offensive line after it really burst onto the scene as most of the most formidable units in the NFL last season. As scary good as the group’s core is, Indianapolis has really lucked out that none of them have suffered a serious injury because the depth is extremely lackluster, to say the least. However, that might be a different story in 2020 following the selection of Danny Pinter in the fifth round back in April. The consensus buzz indicates that the Ball State product has been performing out of his skin since camp started. What makes that so noteworthy is that the Colts have been bouncing him around at unfamiliar positions, including guard and center. With the Cardinals, Pinter played the majority of his snaps at right tackle, so it’s clear that Indianapolis sees him as a player who could fill the void at any of the five positions if a starter were to go down with an injury. After all, he was the only offensive lineman the franchise selected this year.
• “So I just expect the same from what I’ve (experienced) — obviously we have a lot of years and a lot of history with him. Just, I expect the same Philip Rivers that we had when we were in San Diego together.”
• There hasn’t been much buzz surrounding Parris Campbell of late, but that’s because he was placed in the concussion protocol following a minor car accident. Before that, however, the 23-year-old wide receiver was receiving seemingly endless praise from the Colts coaching staff. The injury isn’t said to be serious, so we can expect Campbell to be back bamboozling defenders on the practice field sometime in the next week so long as he passes the required concussion examinations. Highlights from camp have shown why Indianapolis used a second-round pick on him last year. And last year, pre-injury, he was ready to explode, too. This should come as no surprise. This setback, if you can even call it that, shouldn’t take away from the remarkable camp the Ohio State product has put together since arriving for preseason. He’s even made a strong impression on quarterback Philip Rivers. Not many young wideouts can say that! In our eyes, Campbell’s spot at No. 2 on this list is fully deserved. All aboard the train to Parris. 
•  

2019 record: 9-7  | 2020 Projection: 9-7
Head coach: Mike Vrabel (Third year)
Offensive coordinator: Arthur Smith (Second year)
Defensive coordinator: Mike Vrabel (First year)

Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Rams system, play calling and coaching breakdown:

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown  

2020 Draft Picks

Round 1, pick 29: Isaiah Wilson, OT, Georgia

Round 2, pick 61: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

Round 3, pick 93: Darrynton Evans, RB, Appalachian State

Round 5, pick 174: Larrell Murchison, DT, NC State

Round 7, pick 224 (from Browns): Cole McDonald, QB, Hawaii

Round 7, pick 243: Chris Jackson, S, Marshall

Offensive Additions

OT Ty Sambrailo, OT Isaiah Wilson

Defensive Additions

DE Jack Crawford, DE/OLB Vic Beasley, LB Nick Dzubnar, CB Johnathan Joseph, CB Kristian Fulton 

Offseason Losses

QB Marcus Mariota, RB Dion Lewis, TE Delanie Walker, OT Jack Conklin, DT Jurrell Casey, DE/OLB Cameron Wake, LB Wesley Woodyard, CB Logan Ryan, CB Tramaine Brock, CB Tye Smith, K Ryan Succop

Week 1

PK vs. @DEN (Mon)  O/U 40.5

Schedule

Week 2 – JAX
Week 3 – @MIN (+3)
Week 4 – PIT (-2)
Week 5 – BUF (-1)
Week 6 – HOU (-3)
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – @CIN (-2)
Week 9 – CHI (-3)
Week 10 – IND (Thu) (-2)
Week 11 – @BAL (+7)
Week 12 -@IND (+2.5)
Week 13 – CLE (-3.5)
Week 14 – @JAX (N/A)
Week 15 – DET (Sat) (N/A)
Week 16 – @GB (+3)
Week 17 – @HOU (pk)

Offense

The Titans had the biggest in-season shift to success with the QB change. We all know the splits at this point, with TEN scoring over 29 PPG in Tannehill’s starts compared to 15.75 prior. They are bound to regress some. The run they went on was epic, but even a minor regression leaves them as one of the better teams in the league. Per Sharp Football’s defensive efficiency/strength of schedule rank, the Titans have the easiest opponent rushing schedule of any team. That is downright scary with Derrick Henry running around behind the fourth-best line (adjusted line yards). Not only do they have a legit freak of nature at RB, but they also have one at WR1 in A.J. Brown. The Titans were second with 166 broken tackles and led the league with broken tackles on 15.1% of all offensive plays. Jonnu Smith is also a BEAST of a human and led all TEs with 17 broken tackles in limited work. He is one of my favorite late-round TEs to grab in best ball. 

Defense 

TEN was below league average against the pass, which eventually led to their demise against KC in the playoffs. They finished 22nd against the pass and 11th against the run. They acquired Vic Beasley and drafted CB Kristian Fulton. The health of CB Adoree’ Jackson will make a big difference, as their pass D suffered after he got banged up. Malcolm Butler and Johnathan Joseph are way past their prime, so Fulton and Jackson will need to step up to make this a more balanced unit. The big get was Jadeveon Clowney, who gives TEN a big-time difference-maker on the defensive line. With pressure being a CB’s best friend, the TEN pass rush will have a big influence on the success of the secondary. 

Bets

Camp Notes/Updates 

• Isaiah Wilson began training camp on the Titans’ reserve/COVID-19 list. The offensive tackle will begin the first regular-season practice week on the reserve/COVID-19 list, the team announced Sunday. The Titans’ first-round draft choice is one of a handful of NFL players with two stints on the COVID list.
• All signs point to veteran Dennis Kelly starting the season at right tackle for the Titans.