Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
2019 record: 3-13 | 2020 Projection: 5-11
Head coach: Joe Judge (First year)
Offensive coordinator: Jason Garrett (First year)
Defensive coordinator: Patrick Graham (First year)
Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Panther’s system, play calling and coaching breakdown:
Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown
2020 Draft Picks
Round 1, pick 4: Andrew Thomas, OL, Georgia
Round 2, pick 36: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
Round 3, pick 99: Matt Peart, OT, Connecticut
Round 4, pick 110: Darnay Holmes, CB, UCLA
Round 5, pick 150: Shane Lemieux, G, Oregon
Round 6, pick 183: Cameron Brown, LB, Penn State
Round 7, pick 218: Carter Coughlin, LB, Minnesota
Round 7, pick 238: T.J. Brunson, ILB, South Carolina
Round 7, pick 247: Chris Williamson, CB, Minnesota
Round 7, pick 255: Tae Crowder, LB, Georgia
Offensive Additions
QB Colt McCoy, RB Dion Lewis, TE Levine Toilolo, OT Cameron Fleming
Defensive Additions
DT Austin Johnson, DE/OLB Kyler Fackrell, LB Blake Martinez, CB James Bradberry, S Nate Ebner, CB Logan Ryan
Offseason Losses
QB Eli Manning, WR Corey Coleman, OT Mike Remmers, LB Alec Ogletree, LB Deone Bucannon, CB Deandre Baker (legal), K Aldrick Rosas (legal)
Opt-Outs
WR David Sills, LB Josiah Tauaefa, LT Nate Solder
Schedule
Week 2 – @CHI (+5.5)
Week 3 – SF (+7)
Week 4 – @LAR (+7)
Week 5 – @DAL (+7)
Week 6 – WAS (-3)
Week 7 – @PHI (N/A)
Week 8 – TB (+3.5)
Week 9 – @WAS (-1)
Week 10 – PHI (N/A)
Week 11 – BYE
Week 12 – @CIN (-1)
Week 13 – @SEA (N/A)
Week 14 – ARI (pk)
Week 15 – CLE (+1.5)
Week 16 – @BAL (+11)
Week 17 – DAL (+3.5)
Week 1
+4.5 vs PITT (MNF), O/U 47.5 (-110)
Implied Team Totals: PIT 25.5 | NYG 21.5
This matchup fits my qualifier of new coaches/systems against an established defensive system. Pitt comes in ranked first in projected DVOA, after finishing third last season. They are loaded at every level of the defense.
Defense
The Giants finished with a big split which made them a favorite pass funnel to attack. I have written about this many times, but in case you are new to my article, here you go. In today’s game, teams that can stop the run are doing a disservice to themselves. It forces teams to throw more, which we know is the more efficient way to score points. This caused them to give up the fifth-most FPPG to WRs and fourth-most to QBs, despite having the 26th-lowest pass rate against (31st pass DVOA, 7th rush).
“BIG” Dexter Lawrence was great, but he, like the rest of this unit, is large and strong against the run but struggled to rush the passer which is the kiss of death to a secondary. Speaking of which, I like the addition of James Bradbury, who had a great year in CAR, despite giving up big games to Michael Thomas and Mike Evans. The NFC South is a murderers row for CBs, so Bradbury should do well in his new home. The issue here is depth. They just traded for Isaac Yiadom to go along with Corey Ballentine (6th round pick, 132 passer rating in coverage in 2019), and veteran Logan Ryan inside. The Giants are very bullish on Ryan, who is well past his prime. The veteran got torched for 17 FPPG in coverage over his last eight non-week 17 games.
Offense
The Giants invested in their biggest need with the fourth overall pick, taking Andrew Thomas to play RG, opposite Nate Solder, that is until Solder opted out. Thomas will slide over to LT now and veteran Cameron Fleming will play RG. This will likely force third-round selection Matt Paert into more playing time. Per Giants.com, “Peart came to camp in remarkable shape and has looked every bit a starting-quality offensive tackle.” I focus on the line with NYG, as we know they have a ton of talent at the skill positions. The issue has been an offensive line that has averaged 4 adjusted YPC in consecutive years. They may round into shape as the season progresses, but they will be a unit to target coming out of the gate.
I have always had a man-crush on Evan Engram’s profile, especially with his 90+ percentile height-adjusted speed score. However, he is constantly playing hurt, having suffered a season-ending Lisfranc surgery last year to cap a rough two seasons that saw him play a total of 19 games. His injuries include an MCL, hamstring strain, knee sprain (2018) and ankle sprain (2018). But he made it through camp unscathed and is a candidate to lead the team in target share if he can stay on the field.
Sterling Shepard has also been getting talked up at camp and is my favorite of the three NYG WRs for fantasy. He, too, is an injury waiting to happen, but while he is on the field, he produces. I would prefer he play inside, but Golden Tate ruins that plan when they are both on the field. Per FO, Shepard was just over league average in DVOA when lined up inside, but fell to -28% on his outside routes.
Health is the theme with this team, who played just one game with Engram, Shepard, Tate and Saquon on the field. And Tate is already dealing with a hamstring injury. Corey Coleman won the fourth WR spot, who along with newly-acquired Dion Lewis and rookie standout Darius Slayton, make up the Giants pass-catching core. Again, we have never seen this group play together so there is no sample on how the distribution of targets would go. As much as I like Engram, his ADP is expensive and I prefer to be loading up on RB/WR in that part of the draft.
Bets
NYG UNDER 5.5 wins (+143)
NYG UNDER 6 wins (-105)
NYG Under 5.5 wins (-160)
PIT -4 (-105) – Week 1
Rough year for a big turnover in terms of coaching/systems and players. On top of that, NYG has a brutal schedule, playing the second-toughest schedule in terms of projected defensive efficiency (per Warren Sharp). They have to play PITT, BAL, SF, SEA, TB, PHI (2) and DAL (2), who all project out as top-10 defensive units heading into 2020.
Camp Notes/Updates
Jul 29, 2020 – Jordan Raanan – ESPN Staff Writer
New York Giants offensive tackle Nate Solder has opted out of the 2020 NFL season because of concerns over the coronavirus pandemic. Solder cited family concerns, including his son’s battle with cancer and his own bout with cancer. He also has a newborn son.
Golden Tate (lower body) is day-to-day with a possible hamstring injury, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.
CB Darnay Holmes has been one of the biggest standouts of the summer, which was especially important in a young Giants secondary. During Thursday’s scrimmage, the fourth-round pick from UCLA saved two touchdowns on passes in the end zone
QB Daniel Jones — New York Giants (@Giants) September 3, 2020
In the final tune-up, Jones looked sharp from the beginning. He opened with a touchdown pass to wide receiver Alex Bachman and later found tight end, Evan Engram, for another score. He also showed good moves in the pocket to avoid some pressure and get out of trouble while keeping his eyes downfield
— New York Giants (@Giants) September 3, 2020
Barkley scored a touchdown pretty much untouched, thanks to blocks from tackle Cam Fleming and tight end Levine Toilolo.
2019 record: 9-7 | 2020 Projection: 9-7
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (Fifth season)
Offensive Coordinator: Doug Pederson (Fifth season)
Defensive Coordinator: Jim Schwartz (Fifth season)
Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown
2020 Draft Picks
Round 1, pick 21: Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU
Round 2, pick 53: Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma
Round 3, pick 103: Davion Taylor, OLB, Colorado
Round 4, pick 127: K’Von Wallace, S, Clemson
Round 4, pick 145: Jack Driscoll, OT, Auburn
Round 5, pick 168: John Hightower, WR, Boise State
Round 6, pick 196: Shaun Bradley, LB Temple
Round 6, pick 200: Quez Watkins, WR, Southern Miss
Round 6, pick 210: Prince Tega Wanogho, OT, Auburn
Round 7, pick 233: Casey Toohill, OLB, Stanford
Offensive Additions
Defensive Additions
NT Javon Hargrave, LB Jatavis Brown, CB Darius Slay, CB Nickell-Robey Coleman, S Will Parks
Offseason Losses
QB Josh McCown, RB Jordan Howard, WR Nelson Agholor, OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, DE Vinny Curry, DT Timmy Jernigan, LB Nigel Bradham, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, CB Ronald Darby, S Malcolm Jenkins
COVID-19 List
LB Nathan Gerry, OL Lane Johnson, OL Jordan Mailata
Schedule
Week 2 – LAR
Week 3 – CIN
Week 4 – @SF
Week 5 – PIT
Week 6 – BAL
Week 7 – NYG (TNF)
Week 8 – DAL
Week 9 – BYE WEEK
Week 10 – @NYG
Week 11 – @CLE
Week 12 – SEA (MNF)
Week 13 – @GB
Week 14 – NO
Week 15 – @ARI
Week 16 – @DAL
Week 17 – WAS
(Future point spreads have been taken down w/ their injury problems)
Week 1
-6 @ WASH, O/U 43
Implied Team Totals: PHI 24.5 | WASH 18.5
I see a large range of outcomes with this game, as do the linemakers, with many just pulling the game completely. My original thought is the total is too low, but after analysis, I think it is on the money, as a banged-up Eagles squad on the road may not be “flying high”. I will circle back on this game after the full write up this week.
Defense
Philly went out and signed CBs Darius Slay and Nickell-Robey Coleman, two of the best free-agent CBs on the market. This should tighten up the Achilles heel of this defense over the past 2-3 seasons, the secondary. Last year, they were league average in terms of pass DVOA (5.6 YPP allowed, 17th), but again funneled teams into the more effective way of playing football by being so stout upfront (15th pass/3rd rush, after 18th/8th in 2018). Their pass rush was just a notch below league average last season, which is not a good combo when you are trying to minimize damage to a secondary. That led to them allowing the third-most FPPG to opposing WRs after finishing in a similar position in 2018. Enter Slay, who between contract, trade, and injury drama last season had an off-year when compared to previous campaigns. Despite a perceived drop off, he still finished top 12 in catch rate allowed in coverage, top 4 in pass breakups, and 11th in coverage rating, per Player Profiler. Coleman has always been an underrated slot CB. He is undersized, but he consistently keeps his reception rate against in the 55-60% range, which is elite. With NYG featuring Shepard and Tate, and CeeDee Lamb joining Dallas, this was a great signing for Philly. My only other note here is about individual matchups when targeting this Philly team. Avonte Maddux is the other outside CB, which means he is going to see some targets flow his way, with Slay presumably on the team’s No. 1. That said, Slay only traveled inside on 10% of snaps last season, and I would be surprised if Coleman ever lines up outside. My guess is Slay travels even less this season, and it is one of the things I will be watching closely in week one with their matchup against my boy, Scary Terry.
Offense
As always, there is some disconnect between PFF and what happens on the field. They were middle of the pack in adjusted sack rate, third in total pressure dropbacks, and 14th in adjusted line yards per carry. The problem for this unit heading into 2020 is that 2019 first-round pick Andre Dillard was put on IR, leaving the most important position of the unit vulnerable. There has been talk of moving Jason Peters over, but he wants to be paid like a LT to do it. This offense was a MASH unit last year and is already going that way again with Dillard gone, Jalen Reagor out for at least four weeks and DeSean Jackson all of two games away from being hurt again (21 games missed in his last three seasons). That will put the TEs and RBs back in the fold for Carson Wentz, who targeted them on nearly 60% of pass attempts in 2019. Dallas Goedert is the man for me in fantasy at his ADP, with an already thin core and this systems love of the TE (39% target rate in 2019), he is a lock for 15% target share this season, even if Zach Ertz stays healthy (15.6% in 2019). If something happens to Ertz (turns 30 this season), you have a league winner.
Bets
Many books have pulled Eagles’ futures. I lean UNDER 10 if you can find it. I do like the Cowboys to win the division, with the Eagles second, so if you see that bet back on the board, go for it.
Camp Notes/Updates
@GeoffMosherNFL – Early word on #Eagles first-round pick Jalen Reagor is that he won’t need surgery, but probably out about four weeks.
Per ESPN – “Negotiations between the Philadelphia Eagles and tight end Zach Ertz have come to an abrupt halt when the Eagles made an offer that had less guaranteed money than their offer in November, according to sources. The back-loaded offer also had less cash over the next four years annually than on Browns tight end Austin Hooper‘s contract. It might have something to do with the fact that emerging tight end Dallas Goedert is also on the roster, and Ertz still has two years left on his current deal. Ertz remains a high-end, top-five fantasy player at his position, but his ceiling is lowered with Goedert becoming a bigger part of the offense and Philly adding other receiving options through the draft and free agency”
Per TheEaglesWire.com
(here we go again, Philly can’t stay healthy)
“The Philadelphia Eagles returned to practice on Wednesday and two new names appeared on the injury list with Avonte Maddox day-to-day with a lower-body injury.
Will Parks was the biggest name on the list and the Eagles versatile will miss multiple weeks with a lower-body injury as well.”
Eagles injury report:
Maddox (lower body) – day to day
Parks (lower body) – multiple weeks
— Tim McManus (@Tim_McManus) September 2, 2020
The NFL Network’s James Palmer is reporting that Parks is dealing with a hamstring injury.
#Eagles DB Will Parks suffered a hamstring injury per source. The original timetable is 4-6 weeks, but knowing Parks’s past with injuries, I would assume there’s a good chance it will be shorter than that.
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) September 2, 2020
Parks’s absence could provide more reps and playmaking opportunities for Eagles rookie and former Clemson star, K’Von Wallace.
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (First year)
Offensive Coordinator: Kellen Moore (Second year)
Defensive Coordinator: Mike Nolan (First year)
2019 record: 8-8 | 2020 Projection: 10-6
Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown
2020 Draft Picks
Round 1, pick 17: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
Round 2, pick 51: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama
Round 3, pick 82: Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma
Round 4, pick 123: Reggie Robinson II, CB, Tulsa
Round 5, pick 146: Tyler Biadasz, C, Wisconsin
Round 5, pick 179: Bradlee Anae, DE, Utah
Round 7, pick 231: Ben DiNucci, QB, James Madison
Offensive Additions
QB Andy Dalton, OL Cameron Erving, WR CeeDee Lamb, CB Trevon Diggs, DT Neville Gallimore, CB Reggie Robinson, C Tyler Biadasz
Defensive Additions
DE Everson Griffen, DE Aldon Smith, DT Gerald McCoy, DT Dontari Poe, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, K Greg Zuerlein
Offseason Losses
WR Randall Cobb, TE Jason Witten, G Xavier Su’a-Filo, C Travis Frederick (retired), DE Robert Quinn, DT Maliek Collins, CB Byron Jones, S Jeff Heath
Schedule
Week 2 – ATL (-7)
Week 3 – @SEA (N/A)
Week 4 – CLE (-5)
Week 5 – NYG (-7)
Week 6 – ARI (-6.5)
Week 7 – @WASH (-7.5)
Week 8 – @PHI (N/A)
Week 9 – PIT (-2.5)
Week 10 – BYE
Week 11 – @MIN (+2)
Week 12 – WAS (-10.5)
Week 13 – @BAL (+5.5)
Week 14 – @CIN (-6)
Week 15 – SF (+1)
Week 16 – PHI (N/A)
Week 17 – @NYG (-3.5)
Week 1
-2 @LAR, O/U 51
Implied Team Totals: 26.5 | 24.5
Offense
This offense is well-publicized, with stars all over the field, and a top-2 offensive line (2019). They will need to fill the void left by Travis Frederick at center, who retired due to his fight with Guillain-Barré Syndrome. He missed the ‘18 season and they fell back to eighth in adjusted line yards (per football outsiders), making the play of incumbent Joe Looney so critical.
Mike McCarthy takes over for Jason Garrett, with Kellen Moore staying in place as the OC. Many would guess BAL, but it was Dallas who finished first in total yards last season on 6.5 yards per play (1st). The problem was they finished seventh in total scoring, which combined with an 8-8 record led to the changes in upper management.
Dak Prescott is primed for a breakout, or better yet, another breakout, with several underlying stats pointing up. He finished second in yards per pass attempt (9.4), fifth in 20+ yard attempts, second in deep ball completion rate, while still being an active/efficient runner, especially in the RZ.
Per FO, Dak is the best short-yardage conversion QB in the last nine seasons, converting on 67.2%. The next highest is Drew Brees at 62.3% and Big Ben at 62%. That led Dallas to finish second in overall third-down conversion rate at 47.06%, behind Lamar Jackson.
Defense
One reason to be all in on the offense is the Cowboys are likely to take a step back on D. They finished middle of the pack in both rush and pass DVOA, with their fast-paced, high scoring offense putting pressure on them with teams needing to keep their foot on the gas to keep up. They did not re-sign Byron Jones, so drafted rookie Trevon Diggs in the second round. He looks like a decent prospect, but you never know with rookies, and I think we all are counting on a longer adjustment period with the lack of camp and all the other weird shit they (rookies) are dealing with this season. He will play opposite Chidobe Awuizie with Jourdan Lewis in the slot. Combine these guys with a mediocre LB core in terms of pass coverage, and Dallas could be in some trouble. Luckily their offense should be able to hide them, at least until they get into the playoffs.
Dallas was below league average in adjusted sack rate and I don’t expect much improvement this season. They added Gerald McCoy, but he is already lost for the season due to injury. Demarcus Lawrence is the man still after that is a bunch of question marks. Everson Griffen was a solid acquisition, but he is 32 now so you have to assume his best days are behind him. The X-Factor is what they get out of Aldon Smith, who has been out of the league since 2017 (google the story if you haven’t).
Bets
Dallas to WIN NFC East (-110)
Camp Notes/Updates
CeeDee Lamb was spectacular (what’s new?) and Cedrick Wilson looks like the No. 4 receiver. Noah Brown and Devin Smith continue to duel behind them.
Rookie cornerback Trevon Diggs continues to assert himself while Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis sit with injuries. Prescott had a bad overthrow that was intercepted by a leaping Diggs, who then negotiated his way cleverly and smoothly on a return.
2019 record: 3-13 | 2020 Projection: 4-12
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (First year)
Offensive Coordinator: Scott Turner (First year)
Defensive Coordinator: Jack Del Rio (First year)
Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown
2020 Draft Picks
Round 1, pick 2: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State
Round 3, pick 66: Antonio Gibson, WR, Memphis
Round 4, pick 108: Saahdiq Charles, OT, LSU
Round 4, pick 142: Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Liberty
Round 5, pick 156: Keith Ismael, C, San Diego State
Round 5, pick 162: Khaleke Hudson, LB, Michigan
Round 7, pick 216: Kamren Curl, S, Arkansas
Round 7, pick 229: James Smith-Williams, EDGE, NC State
Offensive Additions
QB Kyle Allen, RB Peyton Barber, RB J.D. McKissic, WR Cody Latimer, TE Richard Rodgers, G Wes Schweitzer
Defensive Additions
LB Thomas Davis, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, CB Ronald Darby, CB Kendall Fuller
Offseason Losses
QB Case Keenum, RB Chris Thompson, WR Paul Richardson, TE Jordan Reed, OT Trent Williams, G Ereck Flowers, CB Quinton Dunbar, CB Josh Norman
Schedule
Week 2 – @ARI (+7)
Week 3 – @CLE(+7)
Week 4 – BAL ( +10)
Week 5 – LAR ( +5.5)
Week 6 – @NYG (+3)
Week 7 – DAL (+7.5)
Week 8 – BYE WEEK
Week 9 – NYG (+1)
Week 10 – @DET (N/A)
Week 11 – CIN (-2)
Week 12 – @DAL (+10.5)
Week 13 – @PIT (+9)
Week 14 – @SF (+13.5)
Week 15 – SEA (N/A)
Week 16 – CAR (pk)
Week 17 – @PHI (N/A)
Week 1
+6 vs. Philly, O/U 43
Implied Team Totals: 24.5 | 18.5
Camp Notes/Updates
Alex Smith didn’t win Washington’s starting quarterback job. But he is going to make its team.
“Albert Breer sent a rather low-key tweet listing players on a number of teams that he has heard are being discussed in trade talks ahead of the Saturday 4 p.m. ET deadline for the initial roster cut down to 53. Breer says Ryan Anderson, who has been an OLB since joining the team, but whom coaches have said will be a DE in the 4-3 defensive alignment being implemented by Jack Del Rio, is available for trade”.
