MagicSportsGuide – NFC South

2019 Record: 5-11 | 2020 Projection: 5-11

Head coach: Matt Rhule (First season) 

Offensive coordinator: Joe Brady (First season)  

Defensive coordinator: Eric Washington (First season)

Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Panther’s system, play calling and coaching breakdown: 

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown  

2020 Draft Picks

Round 1, pick 7: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

Round 2, pick 38: Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State

Round 2, pick 64: Jeremy Chinn, S, Southern Illinois

Round 4, pick 113: Troy Pride Jr., CB, Notre Dame

Round 5, pick 152: Kenny Robinson, CB, West Virginia

Round 6, pick 184: Bravvion Roy, DL, Baylor

Round 7, pick 221: Stantley Thomas-Oliver III, CB, Florida International

Offensive Additions

QB Teddy Bridgewater, QB P.J. Walker (XFL), 

WR Robby Anderson, WR Seth Roberts, TE Seth DeValve

OT Russell Okung, G Michael Schofield, G John Miller

Defensive Additions

DE Stephen Weatherly, DT Zach Kerr, LB Tahir Whitehead

CB Eli Apple, S Juston Burris.

Offseason Losses

QB Cam Newton, QB Kyle Allen, TE Greg Olsen, OT Daryl Williams, G Trai Turner

LB, Luke Kuechly (retired),  DE Mario Addison, DT Gerald McCoy, DE/OLB Bruce Irvin

CB James Bradberry, CB Ross Cockrell, CB Javien Elliott, S Eric Reid, 

CB James Bradberry, DT Vernon Butler

Schedule

Week 2 – @TB (+9.5) 

Week 3 – @LAC (+5.5) 

Week 4 – @AZ (+1.5) 

Week 5 – @ATL (+5.5) 

Week 6 – CHI (+3) 

Week 7 – @NO (+12) 

Week 8 – ATL(+1.5) 

Week 9 – @KC (+14) 

Week 10 – TB (+5) 

Week 11 – DET (N/A)  

Week 12 – @MIN (+7)  

Week 13 – BYE (Week 13) 

Week 14 – DEN (+1.5)

Week 15 – @GB (+9) 

Week 16 – @WASH (pk) 

Week 17 – NO (+8) 

CAR is an underdog in every game this season, minus WASH in Week 16, a pick-em. They are 7+ TD dogs in six games. CMC averaged 10.75 targets p/g when the Panthers were 6+ point underdogs  

(8.33 targets p/g outside the split). His rush attempts go down by 2.83 p/g when a 6+ point dog. 

Week 1

+1.5 vs LV Raiders (Logos), O/U 47 (-110)

Implied Team Totals: LV 24 | CAR 23 

One angle I am attacking is new faces in new places against established offensive systems. This game checks that box, as no team has gone through a bigger overhaul in terms of players (nine defensive starters), systems, coaches this offseason than CAR. People are attacking the Raiders as a “road” dog. I use quotations because, without fans in the stands, I am not sure how much home-field advantage matters. That will be one fascinating aspect of this season. Is Seattle still a “tough place to play” without the 12th man? We shall see, but my guess is the lack of crowd noise will make things easier for opposing offenses. I will not be following the Raiders backers, CAR has way too much talent on offense for me to endorse a Raiders defense that finished 30th in pass DVOA and 27th in adjusted sack rate. 

The public is POUNDING the OVER at a 90% rate. With a low volume of bets coming in this year, I would not put too much stock in this data, if any. That said, I agree this number is too low and it will likely end up at 48 to 49 by kickoff. 

Defense

CAR invested all of its 2020 draft-picks on defense, but it’s not going to help this season. Rookies have a natural learning curve in terms of play and conditioning in a normal season, but with COVID, it will be even more extreme. Derrick Brown is already banged up, and the Panthers are already looking to trades to bolster what should be one of, if not the worst secondary in football. Donte Jackson has the name brand coming out of LSU in the second round in 2018, but he has been #NotGood, allowing 2.43 and 2.3 fantasy points per target (FPPT) and ranking 75th or lower in yards per target (YPT) and yards per reception (YPR) allowed. James Bradberry was top-12 in FPPT and will be missed, especially with Eli Apple taking over, who allowed a 120 passer rating in coverage. 

They drafted Brown and Yetur Gross-Matos to go along with the veteran Kawann Short and last year’s first-round pick, DE Brian Burns, upfront. The one thing CAR did well last year on defense was rush the passer, finishing third in adjusted sack rate. As listed above, they lost Addison, Irvin and Butler. Brown and Gross-Matos should be a long term upgrade, but I expect them to fall back a bit from 2019. This is a new system, but they were SO BAD last year against the run (32nd in RB yards allowed per carry) that there is slim-to-zero chance a new HC, coordinator and bunch of young players are going to turn around a unit that gave up 29.4 PPG (36.4, last three) and the most FPPG to RBs in 2019. Wheels up for Josh Jacobs in Week 1. 

Luke Kuechly was not the HOF caliber player last season, but he will be sorely missed as arguably the best ILB of the 2010s. Shaq Thompson is serviceable but has seen a steady decline in pass coverage. Speaking of pass coverage, CAR replaced Kuechly with Tahir Whitehead, who finished near the bottom in PFFs coverage rating for the Raiders last season. This is going to be a bad unit. 

Offense 

With a bad defense, playing in a high-powered conference with three QBs likely headed for Canton, this offense is going to get a ton of opportunity, which makes them VERY fantasy-friendly. In addition to the expected volume, they are LOADED with playmakers and now have a QB that complements their skill-sets along with the coaches’ scheme. 

Teddy Bridgewater joins Joe Brady, who were together in New Orleans while Brady was an offensive assistant. Bridgewater finished fourth in QB accuracy last season and has always excelled in short/medium routes, which should help mitigate Carolina’s opponent’s pass rush. If there is a gripe against Teddy, it is his efficiency under pressure, which is why I think this scheme in combo with this LOADED group of skilled position players sets up so well for him. D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Ian Thomas, and (of course) Christian McCaffrey is arguably top-3 as a collective group. 

Speaking of Anderson, many are quick to dismiss him after an inconsistent and injury-riddled run with the Jets, but he is only 27 and has been good for 2-3 monster games a season while stuck in a terrible offense. Bridgewater was not asked to throw deep much last season, attempting only 1.7 per game compared to Drew Brees’ 3 per game. He did finish fourth in terms of deep-ball accuracy on those limited attempts. He was also good at play-action (75% completion rate, second), which sets up well with CMC demanding so much attention. Anderson is the exact WR I load up on in those mid-to-late rounds, as I am looking for 2-4 “ceiling” games at that point in the draft. 

I can’t get enough exposure to these guys in Best Ball at their ADPs. Bridgewater, Samuel, Anderson and Thomas are all going Pick 120 or later, with Thomas being the cheapest of them all at 156 (UnderDog). They make a great “second stack” that won’t make you sacrifice on value early. 

Bets

D.J. Moore OVER 1050 yards (-110) 

Moore is an FTN favorite and THE value “WR1” to draft after you stash two top-RBs in your fantasy drafts. He was terrific last year, averaging 83.8 yards per game when you pull out the INDY game, where he got hurt on the first series. Looking closer, he left a ton of production on the field due to poor QB play. Moore was 69th in target quality rating and 74th in catchable target rate while finishing 19th in “true catch” rate, which looks at the percentage of accurate or “catchable” balls he converted. Getting the accurate arm of Bridgewater in Brady’s system should improve those accuracy metrics, which (health provided) will lead to Moore being a top-5 WR this season.  

Bridgewater OVER 18.5 TDs (-110) 

CAR UNDER 6 Wins (-134)

CAR UNDER 5.5 Wins (+105) 

OAK/CAR OVER 46.5

Camp Notes/Updates

• Linebacker Shaq Thompson did not practice Friday because his groin is still sore. Rhule said Thompson has an abductor issue.
• Carolina added UDFA cornerback Jameson Houston and defensive end Austin Larkin shortly before practice. Houston is a Baylor product, so he’s familiar with this coaching staff.
• And with defensive end Marquis Haynes in the concussion protocol, the Panthers wanted to get a look at Larkin, who’s spent time with the Cowboys and Falcons.
• Panthers have been calling teams looking for secondary help, per Joe Person.
• Eli Apple has a banged-up hamstring, which along with the rookies developing slowly, has CAR out looking for secondary help.
• Mike Davis is getting hyped up in camp as the new CMC backup, pushing Reggie Bonnafon down the depth chart. This is fairly big news if you are looking to insure your No. 1 pick with his handcuff. Davis is JAG, but Bonnafon is a UDFA. My guess is it would be a 70/30 or 60/40 split, so thinking you are getting CMC “lite” is hilarious. Davis would be a serviceable RB2, but if CMC goes down (knocks on wood), this entire offense is in deep shit.

2019 record:7-9 | 2020 Projection: 7-9 

Head coach: Dan Quinn (Fifth season) 

Offensive coordinator: Dirk Koetter (Second season)

Defensive coordinator: Raheem Morris (First season, fifth with the organization) 

Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Panther’s system, play calling and coaching breakdown: 

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown  

Those who are familiar with the weekly breakdown know it’s all about pace, play-calling, and identifying the correct game script that will unfold. Unless you are Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes, volume matters. ATL led the league with 68.5 plays per game on offense in 2019 (fifth in overall pace). They also have been an offense that loves to pass the ball, finishing first in pass rate (66.97%) in Koetter’s first season with the Falcons. While with TB, he finished sixth (63.13%) and third (62.4%). Those rates hold up in neutral situations, with ATL finishing third in 2019 (63%). I do think they will “want” to run more with their new name-brand RB, Todd Gurley. But I think that will last about one, maybe two, quarters in Week 1, and Matty Ice will be back slinging it.

Per Derrick Brown, “six of his last eight years directing an offense, Koetter’s teams have ranked 22nd or lower in rushing attempts.”

2020 Draft Picks

Round 1, pick 16: A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson

Round 2, pick 47: Marlon Davidson, DE, Auburn

Round 3, pick 78: Matt Hennessy, C, Temple

Round 4, pick 119: Mykal Walker, LB, Fresno State

Round 4, pick 134: Jaylinn Hawkins, S, California

Round 7, pick 228: Sterling Hofrichter, P, Syracuse

Offensive Additions

RB Todd Gurley, WR Laquon Treadwell, TE Hayden Hurst.

Defensive Additions

G Justin McCray, DE Dante Fowler, LB Deone Bucannon, CB Darqueze Dennard.

Offseason Losses

RB Devonta Freeman, TE Austin Hooper, OT Ty Sambrailo, G Wes Schweitzer, 

DE Adrian Clayborn, DE Jack Crawford, DE/OLB Vic Beasley, DT Tyeler Davison,

LB De’Vondre Campbell, CB Desmond Trufant, S J.J. Wilcox, P Matt Bosher.

Schedule

Week 2 – @DAL (+7)

Week 3 – CHI (-1.5)

Week 4 – @GB (+5.5)

Week 5 – CAR (-5.5)

Week 6 – @MIN (+4)

Week 7 – DET (N/A)

Week 8 – @CAR ( -1.5)

Week 9 – DEN (-3) 

Week 10 – BYE

Week 11 – @NO (+7.5)

Week 12 – LV (-2.5)

Week 13 – NO (+3.5)

Week 14 – @LAC (+2)

Week 15 – TB (+3)

Week 16 – @KC (+10)

Week 17 – @TB (+5.5)

Week 1

SEA – 1  O/U 49

Implied Team Totals: SEA 25  | ATL 24

I lean SEA here but try to stay away from the “Pete Carroll tilt fest” that is watching RW3 grind clock and hand the ball to Chris Carson 20+ times.

Defense

The ATL secondary was all over the place in 2019, looking as bad as any unit (see Will Fuller’s highlight tape) while also holding the Saints to 9 points in the Superdome. Gone is Desmond Trufant, but they used the 16th pick to fill the hole with A.J. Terrell. The issue is Terrell is not even close to the player Trufant is. Last year, Trufant got torched for 56.6 FP in coverage (Weeks 4 and 5) and was consequently put on the IR directly after. He returned in Week 11 and held CAR-TB-CAR-NO to an average of just 9.25 FPPG in coverage. The rookie has a solid profile but to expect him to match up across from the WRs that reside in the NFC South and have any success is a stretch. I expect him to struggle. Isaiah Oliver will line up opposite of Terrell. Oliver is just in his second year and has allowed a 112 and 118 QB rating in coverage since entering the league as a second-round pick out of Colorado. Kendall Sheffield was also bad last year, so ATL brought in Darqueze Dennard, who will likely handle coverage against opposing slot WRs. In eight games last season with CIN, he allowed just 5.5 FPPG in coverage, which was FIRST among all CBs in 2019 (4.8 YPT, also first).  

Keanu Neal will be back at safety and will help this young unit. But let’s not forget Neal has been GREAT at pass rush and against the run but was not good in coverage in 2018 or his limited work in 2019. In summary, this unit will need the guys up front to create pressure on opposing QBs, or they will finish at the bottom of pass D ranks once again (25th pass DVOA, 2019). 

Speaking of the front-seven, ATL is solid, featuring Grady Jarrett. The issue here is there isn’t much else to get excited about. Not a lot of depth or talent around the big DT, which makes his health critical. If he were to miss time, things could get dirty for the Birds in the trenches. 

Offense 

Pass blocking was a MAJOR issue for Matt Ryan, with ATL finishing dead last in pressured dropbacks in 2019, 26 more than Russell Wilson (one less game played). Pressure had an extreme effect on his effectiveness, as is the case with most QBs. He saw his competition rate fall from 80% to 35% under pressure. They keep drafting offensive lineman in the first couple rounds to go alongside center Alex Mack and LT Jake Matthews, and maybe we see the two second-year guys make significant progress, but that is a lot of maybes and without a preseason or normal camp, my bet would lean on this unit finishing in the bottom 10 once again. 

Todd Gurley comes home to Georgia after a great run in LA. As we know, backs who handle that kind of volume will show a sharp decline. His YPT fell from 5.8 to 4.4 in 2019, which is correlated to the offensive line. LAR was FIRST in 2018 in adjusted line yards (per Football Outsiders), and 19th in 2019. With Gurley’s yards created metric below league average, he simply requires blocking to get yards. His yards after contact fell from 2.4 to 1.4 YAC (10th to 41st), which put him behind two senior citizens named Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy. That brings us back to ATL, who finished 24th in adjusted line yards. Gurley is not someone I am drafting at his ADP, as I want all the WRs in that range. 

According to the FTN splits app, Calvin Ridley seems to be on the cusp of a breakout. He has thrived with increased usage, and ATL did nothing to replace Mohammed Sanu as a trusted third option. Russel Gage is serviceable as the WR3 in the slot, but this sets up as the Jones/Ridley show at WR, complemented by Hayden Hurst at TE. Last year, Jones/Ridley combined for a 42% target share (148 combined targets). With good health, I think they will smash that number, ending up in the 45-46% target share range (270 combined targets at 600 pass attempts). 

Bets

Ridley OVER 6.5 TDs (-110) 

Ridley has averaged .586 TDs per game since entering the league (17 in 29 games). 

Falcons – Finish second in the NFC South (0.30 Units) +350

Falcons – Finish third in the NFC South (1.00 Units) +120

Camp Notes/Updates 

ESPN’s Vaughn McClure notes from an inter-team game: 

• Ridley over-the-shoulder, 34-yd TD catch on Terrell.
• Gurley made most of 7 touches, including 2-yard TD.
• Jones did not participate.
• Hayden Hurst showed off his speed on a long pass play from Ryan.
• Rookie Matt Hennessy lined up at left guard with the starting unit.

2019 record: 8-8 | 2020 Projection:

Head Coach: Bruce Arians (Second season)

Offensive coordinator: Byron Leftwich (Second season)             

Defensive coordinator: Todd Bowles (Second season)

Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Panther’s system, play calling and coaching breakdown: 

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown  

Arians plays at a league-average pace in neutral situations and stays close to that pace when getting a lead, which led to TB finishing first in pace when leading by 7+. They were seventh in overall pass rate but were +5% at home, which was likely to try and mitigate Jameis Winston turnovers on the road. Good effort. In comes Tom Brady to stop the bleeding from a turnover perspective. He was 17th in interceptable passes (17) compared to Winston’s 49, which was an all-time high. With the way TBs D played last year (fifth overall DVOA, first against the run), a more conservative approach makes sense. The big appeal for me and TB in DFS in the Winston era was the bad defense, high pass rate, and a QB who would chuck it around the field with no regard. These are the factors that have me lower than the market on this TB offense. In addition, Evans/Godwin will likely give up some market share in the red zone and likely overall.

2020 Draft Picks

Round 1, pick 13: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

Round 2, pick 45: Antoine Winfield Sr., S, Minnesota

Round 3, pick 76: Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB, Vanderbilt

Round 5, pick 161: Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota

Round 6, pick 194: Khalil Davis, DL, Auburn

Round 7, pick 241: Chapelle Russell, LB, Temple

Round 7, pick 245: Raymond Calais, RB, Louisiana

Offensive additions

QB Tom Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski, OT/G Joe Haeg

Offseason losses

QB Jameis Winston, RB Peyton Barber, WR Breshad Perriman, 

OT Demar Dotson, DE Carl Nassib, S Andrew Adams

Schedule

Week 2 – @CAR (-9.5)

Week 3 – @DEN (-2.5)

Week 4 – LAC (-6)

Week 5 – @CHI (-3)

Week 6 – GB (-3)

Week 7 – @LV (-3.5)

Week 8 – @NYG (-3.5)

Week 9 – NO (+1)

Week 10 – @CAR (-5)

Week 11 – LAR (-3.5)

Week 12 – KC (+2)

Week 13 – BYE (Week 13) 

Week 14 – MIN (-3)

Week 15 – @ATL (-3)

Week 16 – @DET (N/A)

Week 17 – ATL (-5.5)

Week 1

TB +4 @ NO, O/U 50 

Implied Team Totals: TB 23 | NO 27

The NFL has blessed us with an opening day whopper, with two of the best QBs in NFL history squaring off in the Superdome. The public is on the OVER, but I lean the other way. That said, I would wait on playing it as I think it goes to 50-50.5 by kickoff. I do agree with the public and their backing of TB and the points. 

Defense

This defense has been widely publicized at this point, with them having one of the more dramatic one-year turnarounds I can remember. They finished fifth in overall DVOA after being 32nd in 2018. They have talent all over the field, from Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul upfront to a young secondary that came into their own over the last half of the season after the franchise invested seven draft picks on the unit. This year, they added Antoine Winfield Sr. in the draft. 

Offense 

Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski coming to Tampa was the most publicized story of this NFL off-season, pandemic excluded. How these two combat “Father Time” will tell the story in TB. As they say, he (Father Time) is undefeated, which means the Golden Boy will go down for the count at one time or another. Looking into his advanced stats, you can argue he is already clinging to the top rope:

• Lowest TD total (24) since 2006
• Lowest TD rate (3.9)
• Lowest completion rate (60.8%) since 2013
• Lowest adjusted YPA (6.6) since 2002
• Lowest yards per completion (10.9) since 2008
• Lowest passer rating (88.0) since 2013
• Lowest DYAR (550) since 2001
• Lowest DVOA (2.4%)
• 25th and 26th accuracy rank last two seasons
• 32nd pressured completion rate (18) + 33rd in 2019
• 32nd clean pocket %

Every argument has a counter, and Brady’s is the lack of options at WR/TE he had in NE . Other than a (very good) veteran slot WR, he had a brutal core of pass catchers. Now, he inherits the super-duo of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to go along with a rejuvenated Gronk (so it seems) and one of my (still) favorite TE prospects, OJ Howard. Brady led the league in RZ attempts last season (6.3 per game) and will likely finish at the top of that stat once again. Last season, TB attempted 4.7 RZ pass attempts per game (10th), so I expect to see Brady back in the top-10 in RZ attempts, at least. He also remained solid on his deep pass attempts, finishing ninth (41.7%) in completion percentage on 20+ yard passes.

Regarding the 33rd pressure rank and assigning the blame to the offensive line is common, but a QB can help/hurt those numbers with a quick release. TB finished 22nd in adjusted sack rate last year, so I expected to see Jameis Winston ranked toward the bottom of “QB release time,” but he was not. He and Brady finished with almost identical release times. The reason this is so important is Brady’s decline in pressured QB rating. Last season, behind one of the best offensive lines, Brady was bad, getting 4.1 YPA on a 36% completion rate. When clean, he had a 7.2 YPA on 69% completions. Tampa Bay clearly looked at these stats and went out and spent the 13th pick on Tristan Wirfs to replace Dotson at RG. They also acquired Joe Haeg to add depth at tackle. 

Bets

Chris Godwin is averaging 96.46 yards per game over his last 15, which is second to only Michael Thomas over that span. With Fanduel offering this line at 1099 yards, vs 1200 at other books, I am pounding this line. Like all football OVERs, you need some help from the injury gods to cash, so I like to leave a little room for error. At 1100 yards, GOATwin would need to play 13 games and average 84.6 y/p/g to hit the OVER. That also leaves us not requiring a big week 17, something you don’t always get from a star playing on a potential playoff team.
 

Camp Notes/Updates 

• The Bucs are expected to run plenty of 12 personnel (1 running back, 2 tight ends) this season with a combination of OJ Howard, Gronk and Cameron Brate, particularly in the red-zone area
•  
• “Just being on the field with (Gronkowski), us together has been a big mismatch,” Howard said. “It’s hard to cover a lot of guys like that when we’re on the field together. It’s just hard to stop that. It’s going to open up a lot of things for everyone, and I think it should be real fun.”
• Added Bruce Arians: “I think O.J. is playing at an extremely high level right now and I would not expect to see any kind of dropoff, only continued growth,”

(All via www.buccaneers.com.)

2019 record: 13-3 | 2020 Projection: 

Head coach: Sean Peyton (14th season) 

Offensive coordinator: Pete Carmichael (11th Season) 

Defensive coordinator: Dennis Allen (Fourth Season) 

Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Panther’s system, play calling and coaching breakdown: 

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown  

2020 Draft Picks

Round 1, pick 24: Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan

Round 3, pick 74: Zack Baun, LB, Wisconsin

Round 3, pick 105: Adam Trautman,TE, Dayton

Round 7, pick 240: Tommy Stevens, QB, Mississippi State

Offensive Additions

QB Jameis Winston, RB Ty Montgomery, WR Emmanuel Sanders

Defensive Additions

DE/OLB Anthony Chickillo, LB Nigel Bradham, S Malcolm Jenkins.

Offseason Losses

QB Teddy Bridgewater, FB Zach Line, G Larry Warford, G Patrick Omameh, CB Eli Apple, S Vonn Bell.

Schedule

Week 2 – @LV (-4.5)

Week 3 – GB (-5.5)

Week 4 – @DET (N/A)

Week 5 – LAC (-8)

Week 6 – BYE 

Week 7 – CAR (-12)

Week 8 – @CHI (-4)

Week 9 – @TB (-1)

Week 10 – SF (-2)

Week 11 – ATL (-7.5)

Week 12 – @DEN (-3.5)

Week 13 – @ATL (-3.5)

Week 14 – PHI (-1)

Week 15 – KC (pk) 

Week 16 – MINN (-5.5) 

Week 17 – CAR

Week 1

No -4 vs (Logos), O/U 49.5

Implied Team Totals: TB  23 | NO 26

Waiting on Kamara news for Week 1 analysis.

Offense 

This is a simple one, as we know exactly who the 2020 Saints are. The big change is the addition of a legit WR2 (Emmanual Sanders) to complement Michael Thomas and (contract talks willing) Alvin Kamara. Sanders (when healthy) can make a big impact on an offense. I try to stay away from narrative-based analysis, but sometimes I can’t help myself…Sanders is a “football player” and a “gym rat”. Insert your own cliche. In terms of stats, we saw him take Jimmy Garoppolo from 7.8 YPA to 9 YPA in games where Sanders played a full game. 

Regarding Kamara and his impact, over the past three years, the dynamic RB has exactly 81 catches per season on an average of 100 targets. Add that to 180+ carries (last two seasons) and you are talking about a massive amount of opportunity that would open up for Latavius Murray, Jared Cook and Sanders. Thomas already has such an insane usage rate that I am not sure it can go much higher. That said, he would get a bump in RZ usage, as Kamara has averaged 5.6 RZ touches per game over the past two seasons. 

Regarding Murray, he showed last year he would become an instant RB1 when Kamara is off the field, posting 37.5 FPPG on DK last year in his two starts. Clearly, he is not going to sustain that, but it shows the Saints see him as an every-down back, with him averaging 9 targets per game in those two games. They added Ty Montgomery, who will allow them to not have to use Murray at that unsustainable rate, but his presence does not change my love for Murray if he gets the gig. 

Defense 

Like TB, the defense is the difference from being a good team and one that can get through the NFC and then deal with the likes of Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes. Malcolm Jenkins is the big name who came over, but he is about to turn 33, so he is clearly on the downside of his career. His coverage abilities have already been problematic. 

Marshon Lattimore is coming off his best season and has become a problem for opposing WRs. He held opponents to a 55% catch rate (13th), on 5.6 yards per target (sixth), allowing 1.34 FPPT in coverage. The performance that really stands out to me was holding a red hot AJ Brown to one catch on two targets while shadowing him all over the field. He only traveled into the slot on 4.3% of snaps, so if TB wants to shake Evans loose, moving them inside is the way to do it. 

Bets

No bets with Kamara status influx.

Camp Notes/Updates 

• “The Drew Brees-to-Michael Thomas connection never seems to be “off.” Brees threw a pair of long completions – likely touchdowns – to Thomas in a seven-on-seven drill. On the first one, Thomas adjusted to the pass, cut underneath the defender and made a leaping catch with no one behind him. On the second, he ran through the secondary and beat them deep”. Source: Per NewOrleansSaints.com (8/29)
• Alvin Kamara DRAMA: “One day after reports emerged that New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has had multiple unexcused absences from training camp sessions that were related to his contract, NFL insider Josina Anderson tweeted that the Saints are open to trading the 25-year-old.” Source: yardbarker.com

For the fantasy breakdown of this situation, be sure to check FTNFantasy.com – The obvious takeaway for me is draft the hell out of Murray, who would be a back end first- to second-round pick for me as the primary back in NO.