Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 14

Week 14 will hopefully represent a breather for your fantasy football teams that have already locked up their playoff spots or have byes in the first week of an extended playoff. But for everyone still fighting for their postseason lives, my Start and Sit column for Week 14 can hopefully help you with your difficult lineup decision.

The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end, and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.

You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 14

Quarterbacks

8. Brock Purdy, SF vs. SEA: 27.9-268-1.62-0.50 and 2.6-10-0.13 = 17.9
9. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. TEN: 33.5-289-1.84-0.84 and 1.7-3-0.05 = 17.8
10. Justin Fields, CHI vs. DET: 27.7-198-1.37-0.80 and 8.0-42-0.16 = 16.9

11. Jordan Love, GB at NYG

33.9-238-1.80-0.81 and 2.3-14-0.07 = 16.9

Jordan Love earned the bulk of his public confidence with upset wins over the Lions and Chiefs in recent weeks. But the first-year Packers starter isn’t a Johnny-come-lately. He ranks second at his position with 74 red zone pass attempts this season. And I trust his QB1 fantasy value.

12. Russell Wilson, DEN at LAC

29.2-202-1.61-0.58 and 4.0-20-0.15 = 16.2

Russell Wilson made a QB1 case in the first half of the season with a top-tier total of passing touchdowns. And he’s maintained it with fewer pass attempts the last two weeks with season high totals of 10 and 11 rushing attempts and a pair of rushing touchdowns. His game-ending interception may fuel the narrative that he is past his prime. But at the very least, Wilson remains a productive fantasy quarterback.

13. Matthew Stafford, LA at BLT

34.9-255-1.49-0.84 and 1.3-5-0.05 = 15.3

Matthew Stafford faces a difficult Week 14 test in a Ravens opponent ranked first in pass defense DVOA. But Stafford faced the No. 2 pass defense in the Browns last weekend and excelled with 279 yards and three touchdowns. I have the veteran as my first bench quarterback in Week 14. But you could do worse despite his matchup.

14. Baker Mayfield, TB at ATL

33.5-229-1.54-0.67 and 2.3-8-0.06 = 15.1

Baker Mayfield seems to have stumbled into a touchdown-friendly approach this season: throw the ball to Mike Evans. The journeyman quarterback is tied for a surprising seventh at his position with 59 red zone pass attempts — the same total as rookie sensation C.J. Stroud. And while he misses the QB1 benchmark, he’s a decent bet for a two-touchdown Week 14.

15. Geno Smith, SEA at SF

34.1-247-1.40-0.75 and 2.0-6-0.05 = 14.9

Geno Smith continues his schedule gauntlet on the road in San Francisco in Week 14. But the Seahawks passer overcame a tough Cowboys matchup with 334 yards and four total touchdowns in Week 13. I have him as a bench at QB15. But you could start Smith in a pinch this Sunday, hoping that the 49ers score in bunches and spur a pass-friendly Seahawks gamescript.

16. Jared Goff, DET at CHI

34.7-266-1.22-0.63 and 1.5-1-0.08 = 14.8

Jared Goff has averaged 5.5 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his Lions tenure, and he’s enjoyed 9 of his 10 games with three or more touchdowns at home in Detroit. The Bears are a plus matchup with a bottom 10 pass defense DVOA. But I would still bench Goff on the road in Chicago.

17. Jake Browning, CIN vs. IND: 33.0-248-1.19-0.73 and 2.4-11-0.08 = 14.8
18. Gardner Minshew, IND at CIN: 36.3-245-1.23-0.76 and 2.1-5-0.16 = 14.6
19. Derek Carr, NO vs. CAR: 35.9-252-1.26-0.61 and 1.5-3-0.02 = 14.3
20. Joshua Dobbs, MIN at LV: 34.0-207-1.19-0.85 and 3.5-20-0.14 = 14.2
21. Will Levis, TEN at MIA: 32.2-220-1.16-0.58 and 2.3-4-0.09 = 13.2

Running Backs

21. James Cook, BUF at KC: 12.3-59-0.23 and 3.6-3.0-27-0.11 = 12.1
22. Kenneth Walker, SEA at SF: 13.6-56-0.61 and 2.2-1.7-14-0.04 = 11.7
23. AJ Dillon, GB at NYG: 15.8-55-0.46 and 2.8-2.2-19-0.05 = 11.6
24. Chuba Hubbard, CAR at NO: 13.5-53-0.42 and 3.4-2.9-19-0.06 = 11.5
25. Ezekiel Elliott, NE at PIT: 12.5-48-0.39 and 4.1-3.1-20-0.08 = 11.1
26. Javonte Williams, DEN at LAC: 14.5-55-0.23 and 3.8-3.0-17-0.12 = 10.9
27. Jerome Ford, CLV vs. JAX: 13.2-55-0.30 and 3.5-2.4-16-0.10 = 10.7
28. Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. NE: 9.0-51-0.20 and 3.9-3.1-20-0.06 = 10.2

29. Najee Harris, PIT vs. NE

12.1-50-0.32 and 2.7-2.0-12-0.07 = 9.6

Jaylen Warren may have told reporters the team had promoted him to RB1, and new offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner may have told reporters he played to play Warren more than his predecessor Matt Canada. But Najee Harris and Warren have landed in the same 49-59% and 40-51% respective snap-share bands the last two weeks that they have all season. I don’t think anything has changed. And while that makes both Harris and Warren playable in Week 14, it makes both unlikely RB2s with Mitch Trubisky under center.

30. Devin Singletary, HST at NYJ

11.3-48-0.33 and 2.5-2.0-13-0.06 = 9.4

Devin Singletary had seemed to have earned a definitive RB1 role with 262 rushing yards in Weeks 10 and 11 with Dameon Pierce out and an 82% versus 18% snap share advantage in Week 12 with Pierce back. But then Singletary and Pierce played more even 46% versus 38% snap shares in Week 13, and Pierce reasserted his former preferred red zone role with 4 red zone carries versus just 1 for Singletary. I am projecting Singletary for a 42.5% carry share that ranks 31st at his position in Week 14. I would flex him, but I wouldn’t be excited about it.

31. Gus Edwards, BLT vs. LA

11.2-47-0.53 and 1.3-1.0-9-0.02 = 9.4

With meager receiving contributions in a three-back time share, Gus Edwards is a boom-or-bust touchdown bet. That bet has been tremendous with nine touchdowns in his last six games, and Edwards has led the position with 10 carries inside the 5-yard line since Week 7. But the veteran has also enjoyed a 6.43 expected touchdown surplus in that time that is the highest among skill players. Maybe Lamar Jackson’s versatility can support some level of surplus. But I would be surprised if Edwards scored even five touchdowns the next five weeks, and I would consider him a back-end flex option.

32. Alexander Mattison, MIN at LV

12.9-49-0.35 and 2.0-1.4-9-0.09 = 9.1

With Tony Pollard’s recent run of three touchdowns in his last three games, Alexander Mattison has emerged as the unluckiest touchdown scorer with a 7.48 expected touchdown shortfall this season. That isn’t ideal for fantasy. But like with Pollard, it bodes well for positive touchdown regression. Mattison has nine carries inside the 5-yard line, tied for 15th at his position this season. And no other back with even three such carries has failed to score a rushing touchdown. The touchdowns are coming. Keep playing Mattison in fantasy.

33. Kareem Hunt, CLV vs. JAX

11.6-40-0.45 and 1.4-1.1-7-0.03 = 8.2

Kareem Hunt has seen his teammate Jerome Ford reassert his RB1 role after a midseason ankle injury with a 60% versus 34% snap share advantage over the last five weeks. And while Hunt has out-carried Ford 12 to 8 in the red zone in that time, Ford has closed that gap with 5 red zone carries versus 4 the last three weeks. At this point, Hunt looks like a true second running back. And with all but two teams back from byes, I would sit him in Week 14.

34. Tyjae Spears, TEN at MIA

5.2-25-0.13 and 4.3-3.1-19-0.09 = 7.2

Tyjae Spears played a season-high 67% of snaps and saw a season-high 20 touches in Week 13. But I believe Spears owes that spike to Derrick Henry’s possible concussion. And if Henry can clear protocol and play in Week 13, then Spears should return to your fantasy benches.

35. Dameon Pierce, HST at NYJ

11.5-36-0.38 and 1.2-0.9-7-0.02 = 7.1

Dameon Pierce’s jump from an 18% snap share in Week 12 to a 38% snap share in Week 13 may sabotage his teammate Devin Singletary’s potential RB2 value. But it doesn’t make Pierce a fantasy starter. I am projecting the sophomore back for a 43.5% carry share that ranks a modest 30th at his position this week. And Pierce does not contribute as much as a receiver as Singletary does.

36. Keaton Mitchell, BLT vs. LA

6.7-42-0.17 and 1.6-1.2-9-0.03 = 6.9

The speedy rookie Keaton Mitchell has seen his snap share increase from 18% in Week 9 to 24%, 36%, and 46% over the last three Ravens games. But even if he can completely unseat his teammate Justice Hill, the 179-pound Mitchell is unlikely to eat into Gus Edwards’ red zone work. Mitchell may need 3-5 targets per week to make a fantasy dent. And running back targets are difficult to come by in a Lamar Jackson offense.

37. Zach Charbonnet, SEA at SF

6.8-29-0.20 and 2.3-1.9-12-0.05 = 6.6

The rookie Zach Charbonnet had jumped from a 24-26% snap share in four of his first five weeks to a 50%-plus share in Weeks 8-10 and asserted a third-down role even before Kenneth Walker suffered his oblique injury. And I expect a more even split in Week 14 assuming Walker is able to return. But Charbonnet’s projected 29.5% carry share ranks just 39th among running backs. He would likely need to score to earn flex value. And Walker leads the position with 15 carries inside the 5-yard line this season even with his recent missed games.

38. Miles Sanders, CAR at NO: 9.0-33-0.23 and 2.2-1.5-9-0.03 = 6.4
39. Roschon Johnson, CHI vs. DET: 6.0-26-0.17 and 2.6-2.2-14-0.06 = 6.4
40. Samaje Perine, DEN at LAC: 2.7-12-0.08 and 3.0-2.6-24-0.08 = 5.8
41. Latavius Murray, BUF at KC: 6.5-27-0.28 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.03 = 5.6
42. D’Onta Foreman, CHI vs. DET: 7.5-32-0.23 and 0.9-0.6-4-0.02 = 5.5
43. Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. TB: 7.9-28-0.21 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.02 = 5.3
44. Dalvin Cook, NYJ vs. HST: 6.3-26-0.17 and 1.7-1.2-8-0.04 = 5.3
45. Ty Chandler, MIN at LV: 5.6-24-0.14 and 1.4-1.1-8-0.03 = 4.7
46. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI at DAL: 3.5-14-0.13 and 2.3-1.8-12-0.04 = 4.5
47. Jerick McKinnon, KC vs. BUF: 1.6-6-0.05 and 2.7-2.0-17-0.15 = 4.5
48. JaMycal Hasty, NE at PIT: 5.3-23-0.16 and 1.2-0.9-6-0.03 = 4.4
49. Rico Dowdle, DAL vs. PHI: 5.6-23-0.16 and 1.0-0.8-5-0.03 = 4.4

Wide Receivers

21. Calvin Ridley, JAX at CLV: 7.7-4.7-62-0.42 = 11.3
22. Cooper Kupp, LA at BLT: 8.4-5.1-64-0.37 = 11.2
23. Rashee Rice, KC vs. BUF: 6.6-5.2-60-0.42 = 11.2
24. Adam Thielen, CAR at NO: 8.1-6.1-58-0.39 = 11.2
25. Courtland Sutton, DEN at LAC: 6.9-4.6-59-0.49 = 11.1
26. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN at MIA: 8.4-4.5-65-0.38 = 11.0
27. Christian Watson, GB at NYG: 7.0-3.8-55-0.46 = 10.6
28. Garrett Wilson, NYJ vs. HST: 9.3-5.2-58-0.33 = 10.5
29. Noah Brown, HST at NYJ: 6.1-4.0-65-0.25 = 10.1
30. Amari Cooper, CLV vs. JAX: 7.3-4.0-62-0.30 = 10.0
31. Drake London, ATL vs. TB: 7.1-4.5-56-0.30 = 9.7
32. Zay Flowers, BLT vs. LA: 6.8-4.9-53-0.27 = 9.6
33. Tyler Lockett, SEA at SF: 6.9-4.7-51-0.35 = 9.5
34. Gabe Davis, BUF at KC: 5.8-3.4-52-0.40 = 9.3
35. Diontae Johnson, PIT vs. NE: 7.7-4.4-51-0.29 = 9.1

36. Jordan Addison, MIN at LV

6.0-4.0-50-0.34 = 9.1

Jordan Addison has been at least a borderline WR2 with his teammate Justin Jefferson both in and out of the lineup. But Addison owed some of that quick start to his fantasy season to a 2.31 expected touchdown surplus in the first seven weeks that was third highest among wide receivers. The rookie had almost as many touchdowns (6) as he had red zone targets (9) in that time. Assuming Jefferson can return in Week 14, it may be prudent to consider Addison a WR3 in fantasy.

37. Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. MIN

5.9-4.0-46-0.33 = 8.8

Jakobi Meyers seemed to have an Aidan O’Connell problem. The former Patriots receiver had averaged a healthy 5.8 catches, 64 yards, and 0.8 touchdowns in five Jimmy Garoppolo starts but just 2.5 catches, 35 yards and 0.0 touchdowns in four O’Connell starts. But the Meyers broke the trend with 6 catches, 79 yards and a touchdown in Week 12 before their bye. It’s a bit of a risk. But I am ready to flex Meyers again in Week 14.

38. Josh Downs, IND at CIN

6.7-4.4-50-0.25 = 8.6

I wouldn’t read Alec Pierce’s 100-yard, one-touchdown fantasy outburst from Week 13 as a changing of the guard in Indianapolis. But Downs has surrounded his 13 targets from Week 12 with more modest totals over the second half of the season. And I am projecting the rookie slot receiver for a 19.5% target share that ties him for a modest 39th among wide receivers in Week 14. That makes him a flex starter. But that standing probably requires at least half-point PPR.

39. Jayden Reed, GB at NYG

5.7-3.6-45-0.31 = 8.6

Jayden Reed has not seen a noticeable target bump with normal Packers tight end starter Luke Musgrave out the last two weeks. But even at his typical 17.5% projected target share that ranks 50th among wide receivers, the rookie justifies a flex start with touchdown potential. Reed has 13 red zone targets this season, tied for 18th most at his position. Meanwhile, Reed would jump further if his teammate Christian Watson missed any time with his hamstring injury.

40. George Pickens, PIT vs. NE

5.9-3.3-55-0.22 = 8.5

George Pickens has averaged 89 yards in four games with Diontae Johnson inactive and 49 yards in eight games with Johnson active this season. His flex status was tenuous before. But with Mitch Trubisky as his quarterback in Week 14, I was ready to bench him. The Demario Douglas injury jumped Pickens over the start benchmark, but I wouldn’t talk you out of a choice to sit him.

41. Chris Godwin, TB at ATL

6.6-4.1-46-0.24 = 8.2

I have been steadfast in naming Chris Godwin a fantasy starter. Belying his just one receiving touchdown this season, the veteran has 14 red zone targets, tied for 14th at his position and 2 more than his teammate Mike Evans who has 10 touchdowns. Like Christian Watson before him, Godwin should enjoy some positive regression from his position-leading 2.97 expected touchdown shortfall and score more touchdowns in the second half of the season. But Godwin also left Week 13 early with a neck injury. And that injury risk is enough to bump him below the flex benchmark. It is likely safer to play Godwin more in DFS than in traditional fantasy in Week 14.

42. DeVante Parker, NE at PIT

6.3-3.7-49-0.21 = 8.0

DeVante Parker is no Demario Douglas. But with Douglas, Kayshon Boutte and even Rhamondre Stevenson already ruled out Thursday night, someone has to be the No.1 Patriots receiver. Parker led the team’s receivers with a 38% target share in Week 13. And I am projecting the veteran for a 19.0% target share this week that is tied for 40th at his position. You could start him in a pinch. But I would prefer to avoid every piece of this uninspiring current Patriots passing offense.

43. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA at SF

6.1-4.0-43-0.25 = 7.8

He may not have enjoyed the immediate fantasy success of his some of his rookie classmates like Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers or Puka Nacua. But Jaxon Smith-Njigba has progressed from his September 44-59% snap share standard to 67-75% shares the last three weeks. And he set season highs with 11 targets and 7 catches in Week 13 even with both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett healthy. He isn’t quite a flex starter. But JSN is trending that way.

44. Zay Jones, JAX at CLV

6.0-3.7-40-0.30 = 7.7

Zay Jones should be the major beneficiary of his teammate Christian Kirk’s abdominal injury. And I am projecting Jones for a 19.0% target share that ties him for 41st among wide receivers would make him a flex starter if Kirk was the only loss. But assuming Trevor Lawrence is out as well, I expect Jones to do fare a bit worse on a similar volume of C.J. Beathard targets. And that difference is enough to make Jones a fantasy bench.

45. Tee Higgins, CIN vs. IND

5.7-3.4-44-0.27 = 7.6

New Bengals quarterback Jake Browning opened some eyes with a 354-yard upset win over the Jaguars Monday night. But Browning’s ascension does not cure all that ails Tee Higgins. The veteran receiver has battled hamstring and ankle injuries for much of the season. And while he played a full-ish 78% of snaps in Week 13, Higgins has seen a modest 19% target share in his starts this season, tied for just 41st at his position. I would prefer to wait for a class Higgins outburst before I returned him to my fantasy lineups.

46. Odell Beckham, BLT vs. LA

5.4-3.2-45-0.26 = 7.6

Odell Beckham has seen his best fantasy productivity over the last month with two touchdowns and two seven-target games. The veteran receiver has also played fewer than 40% of snaps his last three games because of various shoulder and abdominal injuries. The bye week may have helped. But I projected Beckham for a conservative 19.5% target share that ties him for 39th among wide receivers in Week 14. And in a run-skewed Ravens offense, that makes Beckham a fantasy sit.

47. Jerry Jeudy, DEN at LAC

5.1-3.5-45-0.21 = 7.5

Jerry Jeudy may owe a bit of his 9-1 touchdown disadvantage to his teammate Courtland Sutton to poor touchdown luck. But Sutton has also out-targeted Jeudy 13 to 4 in the end zone this season. Jeudy is a relative long shot to score touchdowns with his current role. And the Broncos do not have a high-volume passing offense to keep him in his presumed flex status.

48. Brandin Cooks, DAL vs. PHI

4.6-3.2-41-0.26 = 7.4

Brandin Cooks has touchdowns in five of his last seven games and makes at least DFS sense in another home Cowboys start. But with a modest 4, 5 and 4 targets the last three weeks, I think it’s clear that Cooks’ 10 targets in Week 10 were an outlier. The veteran receiver has a 13% target share this season that is tied for just 67th at his position. I expect the touchdowns to tapir in the final month-plus, and I would sit Cooks in fantasy this week.

49. Elijah Moore, CLV vs. JAX: 6.6-3.7-40-0.22 = 7.3
50. Romeo Doubs, GB at NYG: 5.2-3.2-36-0.31 = 7.0
51. Tyler Boyd, CIN vs. IND: 5.0-3.5-34-0.19 = 6.3
52. Khalil Shakir, BUF at KC: 3.7-2.7-40-0.16 = 6.3
53. Jonathan Mingo, CAR at NO: 6.2-3.2-35-0.16 = 6.0
54. Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG vs. GB: 4.5-3.5-30-0.15 = 5.9
55. Quentin Johnston, LAC vs. DEN: 4.6-2.8-29-0.20 = 5.6

Tight Ends

7. Evan Engram, JAX at CLV: 7.3-5.9-49-0.17 = 8.8
8. Jake Ferguson, DAL vs. PHI: 5.7-4.0-43-0.40 = 8.7
9. Dalton Schultz, HST at NYJ: 5.8-3.8-42-0.37 = 8.4
10. Cole Kmet, CHI vs. DET: 5.4-4.5-38-0.33 = 8.0

11. David Njoku, CLV vs. JAX

6.8-4.3-41-0.29 = 8.0

David Njoku has never scored more than four touchdowns in his seven-year career, and it looked like more of the same when his tight end teammate Harrison Bryant caught a touchdown in Week 13. But Njoku has 12 red zone targets since Week 8, the most at his position. Even with just two scores on the season, I think he has a chance to set a new touchdown mark over the final few weeks.

12. Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. TB

5.9-3.6-44-0.19 = 7.3

Even when he leads his team with eight targets, Kyle Pitts can’t crack 10 fantasy points. I rank him as a back-end TE1. But I wish I didn’t have to.

13. Dallas Goedert, PHI at DAL

5.0-3.7-41-0.19 = 7.0

The Eagles may have had too much skill talent for everyone to meet his fantasy expectations even before Dallas Goedert’s arm injury. But since, the team has added Julio Jones and seen Quez Watkins return from injury. If Goedert can return in Week 14, too, then he may return closer to a TE1/2 target share with so many talented mouths to feed. You can start him. But you might have better options for fantasy.

14. Pat Freiermuth, PIT vs. NE

5.0-3.4-36-0.26 = 6.8

Pat Freiermuth made a TE1 case with his 11 and 5 targets the last two weeks with new offensive coordinator Eddie Faulkner. But a quarterback switch from Kenny Pickett to Mitch Trubisky breaks any ties. I would bench Freiermuth this week.

15. Tyler Conklin, NYJ vs. HST

4.7-3.4-35-0.14 = 6.1

Tyler Conklin should certainly enjoy the quarterback switch from Tim Boyle to Zach Wilson this week. But the latter is hardly a prolific passer. I am projecting the third-year quarterback for 33.2 pass attempts this week, in the bottom third at his position. And that makes Conklin a TE2 with even his relatively high 15.0% projected target share.

16. Hunter Henry, NE at PIT: 4.5-2.9-31-0.22 = 5.8
17. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at MIA: 5.0-3.2-31-0.16 = 5.6
18. Cade Otton, TB at ATL: 3.9-3.0-27-0.22 = 5.5
19. Michael Mayer, LV vs. MIN: 3.8-2.5-28-0.19 = 5.3
20. Gerald Everett, LAC vs. DEN: 3.5-2.7-25-0.22 = 5.2
21. Jonnu Smith, ATL vs. TB: 3.3-2.6-29-0.16 = 5.2
22. Tyler Higbee, LA at BLT: 4.3-2.7-27-0.17 = 5.1
23. Juwan Johnson, NO vs. CAR: 4.0-2.4-23-0.20 = 4.7
24. Isaiah Likely, BLT vs. LA: 3.5-2.4-24-0.15 = 4.5
25. Mike Gesicki, NE at PIT: 3.2-2.1-20-0.16 = 4.1
26. Donald Parham, LAC vs. DEN: 2.9-1.9-18-0.21 = 4.0
27. Tanner Hudson, CIN vs. IND: 3.0-2.4-22-0.10 = 4.0
28. Tucker Kraft, GB at NYG: 3.3-2.2-21-0.15 = 4.0
29. Daniel Bellinger, NYG vs. GB: 2.5-2.0-20-0.11 = 3.7
30. Tommy Tremble, CAR at NO: 2.7-1.9-16-0.19 = 3.7